Thursday 29 October 2009

Pattern Race Focus: Volume 2

Pattern Race Focus: Medic just what the doctor ordered.

Robert and Sally Alner's Master Medic may find the trip in Ascot's Byrne Group Handicap Chase on the sharp side, but the outing looks certain to put him spot on for a tilt at Cheltenham's Paddy Power Gold Cup in a fortnight's time.

No fewer than eight Listed or Pattern contests this weekend in the UK and the jumps season has certainly hit its stride.

2:40 Wetherby (Friday) bet365.com Handicap Chase - This listed contest can be seen as a Paddy Power Gold Cup prep for Knight Legend and Bible Lord, but both may find Bauhaus too strong. Nelson's Spice was grosslyflattered last time at Cheltenham and must be avoided at a short price.

3:15 Wetherby (Friday) Weatherbys Bank Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle - we won't see the Triumph Hurdle winner here and Mohanad can enhance Sheena West's reputation by winning again.

2:20 Wetherby bet365 Mares Hurdle - with questions over the wellbeing of Dansimar, Izita Star could prove value; Annabel King's mare travelled well but didn't get home at Cheltenham last time.

2:55 Wetherby bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - not the greatest renewal and, unless Deep Purple proves a revelation over this trip, Tamarinbleu can take advantage of the race conditions to bounce back to form. None of these appeal as championship prospects,however.

3:25 Wetherby John Smith's Hurdle - last year's winner Pettifour will enjoy the lively ground and could get his hurdling career back on track with a repeat. He'd be an ideal RSA Chase prospect at the festival if switching to fences which remains a strong possibility.

1:50 Ascot United House Gold Cup H'cap Chase - Suzy Smith's admirable mare Aimigayle is a decent bet to bely long odds and hit the frame. If Can't Buy Time is declared, he would look the likeliest winner and is an exciting prospect given these conditions.

3:00 Ascot Williamhill.com Handicap Hurdle - Laura Mongan's Alsadaa loves to hear his hooves rattle round Ascot and is certain to run well here. Micheal Flips is an unexposed type from the in form yard of Andy Turnell and could be interesting now handicapping.

3:35 Ascot Byrne Group Handicap Chase - Master Medic is of some interest here but much more so for the Paddy Power Gold Cup; he's still progressing and would be a popular winner at Cheltenham in the colours of Champion Chase winner Katabatic. He's a general 16/1 chance for the November feature but he might be worth putting up a small back at bigger odds on Betfair as defeat on Saturday wouldn't be the end of the world.

Pattern Race Review: Volume 1

Old Roan Chase:

Monet's Garden was back to his very best to win this race for a second time, clearly much fitter than he was when down the field last year. He showed that he doesn't stay three miles in top company when tried in the 2007 King George, so expect him to take in the Peterborough Chase (which he won last year) and possibly the Ascot Chase en route to another crack at the Ryanair Chase come March. His best chance of a Grade 1 success will come over this course and distance in the Melling Chase at the Grand National meeting. It's worth reiterating that he's rising 12, however.

Tidal Bay ran respectably on balance in second but looks like a horse who still has problems and I doubt that those can be rectified by a wind op. As an Arkle Chase winner who arguably stays three miles, races like the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Boylesports Gold Cup could be on the agenda should connections want to pursue the handicap route. He's the type to disappoint regularly but then pop up when not expected. Tartak eventually went off favourite but jumped poorly throughout, and while time is on his side, he needs to prove his wellbeing after finishing well tailed off.

Persian War Novices Hurdle:
Reve De Sivola proved himself a very smart prospect at this trip with a decisive win. The only note of caution I would sound is over his jumping technique, looking sloppy at two or three, and he'll need to brush up on that. He can be expected to go to the Challow Hurdle at Newbury next before a possible Festival warm up in the Classic Novices' hurdle on Trials Day. That is the route taken by stablemate Diamond Harry last year.

totetentofollow.co.uk Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle:
A smart performance from another four-year-old here in the shape of Mr Thriller in the colours of Joe Moran. David Pipe's charge had run very well in defeat in the Imperial Cup and Fred Winter last season, but looks to have scope to improve considerably on that upped in trip. His owner won the Coral Cup and Aintree Hurdle with Ilnamar some years ago and this horse looks as good; he can make a bid for a graded success in the Coral Ascot Hurdle next month. Bakbenscher caught the eye running on from a bad position and in the wrong part of the track and remains one to follow.

Pattern Race Focus: Volume 1

With 174 pattern contests throughout the season in the UK, there isn't a week from mid-October to the end of April without a feature hurdle or chase, the culmination coming at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals. I'm looking to build a profile of the major equine players within the jumping scene by focusing on the entries for those races each week.


We start with three races this Saturday: the totetentofollow Old Roan Chase at Aintree, the totepool Persian War Novices' Hurdle and the totetentofollow.com Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle, both at Chepstow. In the Old Roan, the last two winners, Knowhere and Monet's Garden look set to reoppose, but neither look likely to vie for honours when the big prizes are being dished out and the most interesting contenders come from Tom George's Slad yard, those being Tartak and Nacarat. Both seem in similar mould, showing their best form on speed tracks which place an emphasis on slick jumping. Expect one or both to be entered in the Ryanair Chase, but it may be that both are better suited by the demands of Aintree and the Melling Chase (where Nacarat was second last season) is their most likely spring target. Races like the Peterborough Chase and Ascot Chase may also feature for Tartak while it's expected that Nacarat will step up to the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day.

The standout performer in the Persian War is undoubtedly Reve de Sivola who has retained his novice status this season due to shrewd placement by trainer Nick Williams. He looks set to follow roughly in the footsteps of stablemate Diamond Harry with the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle on his agenda should he win here. Long term, he seems sure to be aimed at the Baring Bingham Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival itself and is very much one to follow.

The Silver Trophy is more likely to be won by an improving young chaser if recent results are any guide and if that remains the case, then Bakbenscher fits the bill ideally. Alan King's Bob Back gelding is out of winning chaser Jessolle and looks a likely type for novice chases in time. It may be that he will be aimed at one of the Cheltenham Festival handicaps (either the Jewson or Racing Post Plate) and he could prove a money spinner for his astute handler.