Three Chords Can Upset Status Quo

Jump racing has managed to survive the elements today, albeit with the card at Leicester an all chase version given the state of the less protected hurdles track. That throws up a few interesting contests, but none more so than the 15:30, in which one of my old allies, Ikorodu Road is lumbered with top weight. He’s not the one who catches my eye, however, as the Caroline Bailey-trained Three Chords fairly leaps off the page off a BHA mark of 118. The reason for the handicapper’s generosity is the lengthy absence since the son of Winged Love (also the sire of the prodigious Hunt Ball) saw racecourse action in the spring of 2011. We are therefore taking something of a gamble on his well-being, but Caroline Bailey has “horsewoman” stamped through her in the way sticky confectionery does “Blackpool”, and is more likely than most to nurse such a horse back to its best. When we last saw Three Chords, he was made favourite to concede weight to Maurice Barnes’ Garleton, and it’s no surprise that he was unable to do so given the progress that horse showed subsequently, and Garleton’s last run came off a mark of 145. Three Chords’ previous in-frame effort came behind Wellforth and Rey Nacarado, when again trying to give that pair a stone and upwards, and there is no doubt that his performances merited a mark north of 130. Even his C&D defeat of Tafika in January 2011 reads well, as Paul Webber’s charge has gained a reputation as a Leicester specialist, and has won both subsequent starts at the Oadby venue. It’s possible to be tempted by several others here, with Buddy Bolero unexposed and improving, Ballyoliver hailing from a rampant yard, and Dashing George potentially getting the run of the race from the front, but handicap chases have a habit of going to the best handicapped horses, and I’m certain that a cherry-ripe Three Chords is well ahead of his mark. The uncertainty over fitness is clearly a concern, but has been fully factored into a price of 12/1.

Over at Ludlow, it’s somewhat surprising to see Rydalis, who sports the colours of Vida Bingham, trading at double-figure odds on Betfair for the 15:10, which looks less competitive than the numbers suggest, and it’s worth taking a chance on Venetia Williams’ lightly-raced chaser.  Race favourite Father Probus produced a career best back over fences on debut for Nick Williams at Fontwell last month, but has a decidedly patchy profile, and wouldn’t be certain to back that effort up, for all he looks to have the scope to do better, and Rydalis was also successful at the Sussex track when trying fences for the first time. She was too strong for Addiction that day, and the runner-up franked the form at Huntingdon last time, albeit looking moody as she went about it. With Satou and Milo Milan regularly spoling their respective chances with jumping errors, and both Emperor Concerto and Kellystown Lad looking increasingly indolent, the main danger would appear to be the well-treated Quinte du Chatelet. The concern is that the duo may take each other on from the outset, which could set the race up for stronger stayers, but hopefully such a scenario will not come to fruition.

Recommended Bets:

Back Three Chords in the 15:50 Leicester @ [13.0]  (NAP)

Back Rydalis  in the 15:10 Ludlow @ [10.0] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108080065&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108078685&ex=1&origin=MRL

Thank You For The Days

It was Ray Davies who wrote those lyrics, but hopefully there will be no Kinks on show when July Days jumps out of the stalls for the 15:40 at Wolverhampton this afternoon. Brian Baugh’s mare hasn’t been seen since running poorly over C&D in September, but she put up a career-best effort to score here almost a year ago when returning from a similar lay-off, and looks set to be handed an easy lead in a race full of hold-up runners. She took another C&D handicap on her penultimate start, and is clearly ideally suited by conditions. The Baugh yard is in fair form for a relatively small operation, with 4 of 9 runners in the last fortnight either winning or making the frame. It’s hard to be adamant that she’s strictly ahead of her mark, but she should be competitive, and the combination of a proven ability to run to form after a break and a race which will suit tactically makes her an appealing bet at double-figure odds.

In the final race at Kempton (16:50), it’s worth sticking with recent course winner Compton Rainbow, who  belied a reputation as a weak finisher when storming clear under Ryan Tate over 1m here last time. He made all there in a good time, and while the luxury of an easy lead will be denied him due to the presence of Demoiselle Bond, that mare comes here under a cloud and with stamina to prove, so Tate should be able to track the early pace before taking over in the straight. Main danger Fairyinthewind travels well held up, but has has been outbattled more than once after trading short, and Compton Rainbow can get the better of her as long as he’s not forced into going too fast in the early stages.

Recommended Bets:

Back July Days in the 15:40 Wolverhampton @ [12.5]  (NAP)

Back Compton Rainbow  in the 16:50 Kempton @ [5.2] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108068935&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108067924&ex=1&origin=MRL

Chase Can Surprise in Argento

The defection of the reformed Tidal Bay has taken some of the lustre off the Argento Chase (14:25) at Cheltenham today, but that doesn’t detract from the appeal of the race from a betting perspective. Most of the field have questions to answer, with Grands Crus bringing the best form but increasingly looking a doubtful stayer, and Imperial Commander returning from a long absence due to injury. The latter has also had a setback this season which has delayed his comeback, and the fitting of a tongue tie sounds a further warning. Hunt Ball’s trainer has been at pains to point that he is much better on good ground, and Weird Al was laboured on his reappearance. That blows the race wide open, and the one which appeals most at current odds is last year’s winner Midnight Chase. Neil Mulholland’s gelding comes here on the back of a poor effort in the Lexus over Christmas, but that run is easily forgiven as he was unable to find a rhythm and his usually excellent jumping let him down. He will be much happier back at his favoured venue today, and should lead this field a merry dance. Better ground would have been ideal, but he’s actually won on all 3 occasions he’s met heavy ground, and should handle conditions as well as any. Conceding weight all round will be no cakewalk either, but he still looks overpriced at 18.5 on Betfair, and is sure to trade much shorter if taking up his accustomed position at the head of affairs.

In the Victor Chandler Chase, it doesn’t take a genius to predict that the imperious Sprinter Sacre will take the world of beating, but the race for second is intriguing, and Somersby makes much more appeal than likely 2^nd favourite Sanctuaire, who needs to show he can operate left-handed over fences, and didn’t entirely convince with the way he went about it when winning at Kempton last time. Somersby won this race at Ascot last year, and is always at his best fresh, so can be expected to run to his best on his first run for Mick Channon. Channon’s record with the horses he’s acquired from Hen Knight reads well,  and while he’s never one to rely on completely, this is probably the time to catch him.  The best way to play him is to be second to Sprinter Sacre in an Exacta, rather than in the Betfair RFC market.

Recommended Bets:

Back Midnight Chase  in the 14:25 Cheltenham @ [18.5] (NAP)

Back Sprinter Sacre/Somersby (Exacta)  in the 13:50 Cheltenham  (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108050342&ex=1&origin=MRL

Sovereign Looks Golden

No turf racing again today, but the Lingfield polytrack card has a couple of above-average handicaps to relieve the boredom and it’s those contests which provide the best bets.

In the 13:50, a confident vote is given to Woolfall Sovereign who has never been better, and was impressive when landing a strongly-run event at Wolverhampton on New Year’s Day from Dorback, with one of today’s main rivals, Moorhouse Lad back in third. The way that contest was run undoubtedly suited George Margarson’s runner, but today’s contest looks like a carbon copy, with Moorhouse Lad again guaranteed to go hard from the outset, and Fratellino another who shows his best form when dominating. It’s hard to imagine either of that pair getting an easy lead, and the resulting pace duel should allow the thriving Woolfall Sovereign to settle in behind before swooping past tiring rivals in the dying strides. Of the others, Bajan Tryst is capable, but proving increasingly hard to catch right, while Swiss Cross is just in the grip of the handicapper if recent runs are a guide. With the bottom pair out of the weights, and Even Stevens a fibresand specialist whose only role will be to help harry the early leaders, it’s impossible to get away from the current favourite. Value hunters might like to include the other hold-up horses in exotics, but a straight win bet on Woolfall Sovereign looks the obvious play.   

In the previous contest at 13:20, Harry Buckle is suggested as the bet, having been a winning selection in a similar contest last time. His maiden win, as mentioned at the time, is very solid, and he wasn’t hard pressed to follow up in a 1¼m handicap here last time. Cayuga was a non-runner there and still looks the chief threat with his unexposed profile, but I’m in no mood to desert Harry Buckle, for whom the return to 1½m is no problem, and who is proving quietly progressive after taking a while to find his level. His pressing run style should be effective given the likely pace scenario here, with Activate the most likely to take the field along. Should there be no early pace, then the selection will be best placed to go on given he’s been ridden close up on all his recent starts.

Recommended Bets:

Back Woolfall Sovereign  in the 13:50 Lingfield @ [2.46] (NAP)

Back Harry Buckle in the 15:30 Lingfield @ [3.7] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108007203&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108007201&ex=1&origin=MRL

Visor Can Give Angelic Kick Start

Just a polytrack meeting at Kempton to concentrate on, but one or 2 good opportunities present themselves, and the quality isn’t bad overall. Geoff Deacon’s Glastonberry has been a credit to her trainer since returning from a break in November, and should go well in the opener, while the 14:20 looks a competitive affair with Haftohaf and Light From Mars currently dominating the market. The former is proving expensive to follow after being turned over at short odds on his last 2 starts, while the latter is undeniably well handicapped, but has never been one for maximum faith. As a result, there is some value to be had in backing top weight Angelic Upstart who has been running creditably in stronger races and has the promising Thomas Brown claiming 7 lbs today. The fitting of a visor is a proven tactic for trainer Andrew Balding, and the Singspiel gelding will be a major player if the headgear has a positive effect.

It takes something of a leap of faith to back Mambo Spirit (15:30) at the moment, as his last few runs have been poor, but he has always been at his best over C&D, and looks very well treated on the form he showed when winning a seller here just over a year ago, and even a repeat of his second in a claimer behind Marajaa here in February would make him the clear pick. In a race lacking positives, Tony Newcombe’s charge is worth considering at likely odds.

Recommended Bets:

Back Angelic Upstart  in the 14:20 Kempton @ [6.60] (NAP)

Back Mambo Spirit in the 15:30 Kempton @ [17.5] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107983806&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107983810&ex=1&origin=MRL

To Definity And Beyond!

Thankfully, racing at Wincanton has been given the green light, and there are some competitive races on the card at the underrated Somerset venue. Pick of the action is arguably the HIS Platinum Handicap Chase at 14:20, in which the lightly-raced Definity makes plenty of appeal. A son of Irish Grand National winner Ebony Jane, the 10-y-o is a fragile sort, and is making just the eighth start of his career today, and the first since a creditable fifth in the Centenary Novices’ Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival in 2011. On that occasion, he was outpaced over a shorter trip before staying on strongly up the hill. A course winner on his debut, he will be suited by the testing conditions and likely strong pace of this contest. The handicapper, as is his wont, has dropped Definity purely due to absence, and he is potentially a class above today’s opposition. The obvious concern is fitness, but horses with his profile are naturally limited to the number of times they can be risked, and Paul Nicholls is sure to have him 100% for this return.  Dangers on recent form are Ballyalia Man and Fine Parchment, but the latter is readily dismissed given how he threw certain victory away at Taunton last time, and he won’t be able to dictate as he did there. Ballyalia Man also tends to lead and competition for front-running duties may compromise his chances (Moleskin is another regular pace-setter), but he would be of serious interest otherwise, as he’s had his stamina stretched over further here on his last 2 starts, and is better than the bare form of those runs. A drop to 21f looks ideal for this sound jumper, and he looks much the biggest threat to the selection.

In the Somerset National at 14:50, there is rather less pace, and many of the runners (as is typical with staying chasers at this level) tend to race lazily, notably Miko de Beauchene, Upham Atom and Pettifour. The pair likely to dominate in the early stages are Richard’s Sundance and Doubletoilntrouble. The latter was unsuited by being held up last time, but is normally ridden forwardly, and promises to improve now given a real test of stamina for the first time in his career. His pedigree and exploits over hurdles for Keith Goldsworthy marked him down as an ideal sort for marathon chases, and he’s improved since being moved by owners Peter and Lisa Hall to the yard of Fergal O’Brien, winning in first-time cheekpieces at Hereford before a second place at that venue last time. He’s out of the weights, but that’s only a minor concern, and the claim of Conor Shoemark means he only has a featherweight to carry, a major plus in races over extreme distance. He can cause a minor shock.  

Recommended Bets:

Back Definity  in the 14:20 Wincanton @ [4.70] (NAP)

Back Doubletoilntrouble in the 14:50 Wincanton @ [15.5] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107958448&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107958450&ex=1&origin=MRL

Bumper Musings #2

Going: Heavy  |  Distance: 2m  |  Age: 4yo  |  Total prize money: £2600  |  Runners: 15  |  Race Type: National Hunt Flat
Timeform Comments
Timeform 1-2-3
1 Molly's A Diva
2 Emily's Flyer (IRE)
3 Brantingham Breeze
Timeform view
Few make much appeal, and the well-related Molly's A Diva gets the vote for the yard which won this contest in 2011. Emily's Flyer hasn't run for 14 months, but rates a threat on form, while Brantingham Breeze has the best pedigree of all, and is surely better than she could show on debut at Folkestone.

Brantingham Breeze 5-11-3 - Emma Lavelle   Mr D. F. Bourke (7)
gr m Tamure (IRE) | Absalom's Lady 
Tamure filly out of high-class jumper Absalom's Lady, and half-sister to smart chaser Bob Bob Bobbin among others. Well held despite market support on debut at Folkestone, but sure to do better.

20 Nov 12 Folkestone 2m1f 110yds Good to Soft Turf National Hunt Flat 7/10 Dominic Elsworth -

Byronsprincess   5-11-3 Brian Eckley - Gary Derwin (7)
b m Byron | Sun Bonnet
Byron half-sister to fairly useful hurdler/chaser around 2m Lend A Hand Son, out of an unraced mare. Some appeal on pedigree, but yard's last win in this sphere came in 2006.

Cash For Steel (IRE) 6-11-3 Richard Phillips - Gerald Quinn (7)
b m Craigsteel | Neiges Eternelles (FR)
First foal of winning half-sister to high-class 2m chaser Nakir. Placed on both starts to date in this sphere, but beaten 25 lengths when second of 5 here last time, and others stronger again.

26 Dec 12 Ffos Las         2m Heavy Turf National Hunt Flat 2/5 Sam Twiston-Davies -
18 Oct 12         Wincanton 2m Good to Soft Turf National Hunt Flat 3/12 Richard Johnson -

Clear Mix  5-11-3 Susan Gardner - Miss L. Gardner (5)
b m Fair Mix (IRE) | Nortonthorpe-Rose
Fair Mix mare out of a half-sister to smart 3m chaser Horus. Bought cheaply last year, however, and looks more of a long-term prospect on pedigree.

Dereks Red Ruby 5-11-3  Marc Barber - Mr Matthew Barber (7) 
b m Kayf Tara | Scarlet Dawn (IRE)
Better effort to date when fifth of 10 at Towcester last time, travelling better than most, but unable to pick up. Plenty to find on form here.

20 Dec 12 Towcester 2m Heavy Turf National Hunt Flat 5/10 Mr A. Johns -
14 Oct 12         Ffos Las         2m Soft Turf National Hunt Flat 8/8 Mr Matthew Barber -

Emily's Flyer (IRE) 6-11-3 Fergal O'Brien - Tom Molloy (3) 
b m Oscar (IRE) | Lady Rolfe (IRE)
Better effort in mares bumpers 7½ months apart when length second to Bonne Fee at Hereford in November 2011. Has left Nigel Twiston-Davies since, and claims if ready to go after 14-month absence.

17 Nov 11 Hereford 2m1f Good to Soft Turf National Hunt Flat 2/15 Sam Twiston-Davies -
02 Apr 11 Uttoxeter 2m Good Turf National Hunt Flat 5/14 Sam Twiston-Davies -

Genuine Art 6-11-3   Lucy Jones - Charlie Wallis (5)
b m Generosity | Impulsive Bid (IRE)
Generosity mare out of a fair 2m hurdler. Merely hinted at ability on debut over C&D last March, but failed to build on that here last time, and makes minimal appeal again.

15 Apr 12 Ffos Las 2m Soft         Turf National Hunt Flat 8/9 Aodhagan Conlon -
29 Mar 12 Ffos Las 2m Good to Soft Turf National Hunt Flat 8/10 Aodhagan Conlon -

Just A Whisper   7-11-3 Keiran Burke - Liam Treadwell  
b m Talkin Man (CAN) | T'be Sure (IRE)
Half-sister to fair chaser Bronson F'Sure (stayed 25f) out of a once-raced mare from family of high-class chaser Farmer Jack. Making a belated debut, and others more appealing on paper.

Land Of Vic   5-11-3  Peter Bowen - Jamie Moore 
b m Old Vic | Land Of Glory
Old Vic half-sister to poor maiden jumper Hopeand, out of an unraced half-sister to tip-top staying chaser See More Business. Yard 4-33 in bumpers here in last few seasons, but rather quiet of late.

Molly's A Diva   6-11-3 Kim Bailey - Nick Scholfield  
ch m Midnight Legend | Smokey Diva (IRE)
Sister to connections' fairly useful jumper Max Bygraves out of a half-sister to high-class hurdler Vicario di Bray. Yard won this in 2011, and 8-37 in bumpers in last 2 seasons. Shortlisted.

Nowweareseven   6-11-3 Keiran Burke - Brendan Powell (3) 
b m Court Cave (IRE) | Migsy Malone
Sister to connections' bumper winner Big Casino, from an otherwise undistinguished family. Looks pick of yard's pair on paper, and worth a market check on her racecourse bow.

Princess Six   6-11-3 Heather Main   - Felix de Giles 
b m Generous (IRE) | Segsbury Belle
Half-sister to modest hurdler Being There (stays 2½m) and 6f selling winner Yes Meg out of a poor maiden. Makes limited appeal on breeding for yard with a 0-13 record in bumpers.

Still Believing (IRE)   5-11-3 Evan Williams   - Conor Ring (10) 
ch m Blueprint (IRE) | Im A Believer (IRE)
Blueprint mare who fetched £5,000 after winning a maiden point in October. That didn't look a strong event of its type, but she can't be ruled out if attracting support on Rules bow for new yard.

Une Des Bieffes (FR) 5-11-3  Michael Scudamore  - Tom Scudamore  
b m Le Fou (IRE) | Belle D'ecajeul (FR)
From family of Champion Chase winner Voy Por Ustedes, and improved on debut form when mid-field at Hereford in November on belated return, for all she finished rather weakly. May do better.

01 Nov 12 Hereford 2m1f Soft Turf National Hunt Flat 6/14 Tom Scudamore -
16 Nov 11 Warwick 1m6f Good Turf National Hunt Flat 7/16 Tom Scudamore -

Indian Stream 4-10-5 Debra Hamer   - Donal Devereux (3) 
ch f Generous (IRE) | Zaffarimbi (IRE)
Half-sister to a winning pointer, out of an unraced sister to useful hurdler up to 3m Santabless. Offered little in a C&D bumper last month, and hard to see her making much impact now.

17 Dec 12 Ffos Las 2m Heavy Turf National Hunt Flat 5/6 Donal Devereux -

Not Silly To Side With Billy

Some uncompetitive racing at Lingfield today sees opportunities for value hunting thin on the ground, but the race with the most likeable shape to it comes at the end of the card, when Pat Phelan’s Silly Billy can gain compensation for a series of creditable efforts. He’s been in the frame on his last 5 starts on polytrack, and has shaped better than the bare result on his last 3 runs, too. Forced to wait for a gap before finishing strongly here last month, he then helped force an overly-strong pace at Kempton before being pipped on the line back at this venue. He’s sure to go well again, and while he’s not the only pace angle in the race, the presence of inexperienced apprentices on both Georgebernardshaw and Salient  doesn’t inspire confidence, and should one of the pair go off too hard (Salient in all likelihood, given he’s tried in blinkers for the first time), it should allow the more experienced Jake Payne to take back slightly before swooping early in the straight. Main danger My Scat Daddy had little chance behind Bussa here last time, but was put firmly in his place there, and looks to have nothing in hand of the assessor on that evidence. Add to that a slight doubt about the suitability of this trip, and he looks opposable. Several of the others are well treated on their best efforts, but most arrive badly out of form, and this looks a decent opportunity for Silly Billy to get back on the scoresheet.

In the 1½m handicap at 14:00, Sinchiroka appeals more of a pair of last-time-out winners, and he looked an improved horse in a tongue tie when scoring over 9.5f at Wolverhampton 10 days ago. Previously probe to weak finishing, he stayed on strongly there, and shaped as if this longer trip would be within his compass. Sweet Liberta also won last time, and by doing so belatedly broke her duck, but while she looked perfectly willing in beating 13 others at Kempton last time, that race looked much weaker than the numbers suggested, and a penalty may well be enough to stop her. Sinchiroka is the only obvious pace in the race today, and Jamie Goldstein should be able to dominate on Jack Smith’s charge. Asia Minor is a potential fly in the ointment after an improved effort on his handicap bow, but he’ll need to improve again to score here.    

Several others are of interest at Lingfield, albeit at shorter prices, with Golden Flower looking the closest thing to a banker on the card at 15:00, where she will surely have too much speed for the gritty Equitania, while Marvelino, who is very much drinking in the last chance saloon, can finally break his duck now dropped to 5f on polytrack, and with headgear on to boot. A full breakdown can be found here: http://form.timeform.betfair.com/course?courseId=1.30

Recommended Bets:

Back Silly Billy  in the 16:00 Lingfield @ [4.50] (NAP)

Back Sinchiroka  in the 14:00 Lingfield @ [5.9] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107932769&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107932761&ex=1&origin=MRL

Spark Set To Fly

With Fakenham now off and Kelso reporting a forecast of snow this afternoon, it’s back to the polytrack for the best bets, and I will resist the temptation to be overly-clever about things having foregone a straight win bet on Spark of Genius last time. Alan McCabe’s filly looked a solid option last time on debut for the yard, and duly proved the point by winning with plenty up her sleeve. She goes unpenalised for that success when lining up over C&D at 14:00, and should again prove very hard to beat.  She proved that gaining an early lead wasn’t a prerequisite last time, which is a plus as this race has much more natural pace in it that the apprentice event she won last time. The ability to track the likely strong gallop will help her here, and it looks like Royal Holiday, Reposer and possibly North Central will force the issue. It’s important that Luke Morris doesn’t get embroiled in a speed duel, but he’s got enough experience of riding in similar events to know when to challenge. A burn-up would bring market rival Ioannou into the equation, but the maiden in which he beat Coastal passage last time was just an ordinary affair, for all the runner-up has won since. My idea of the one to include for forecasts is Bassett Road, who should also have things run to suit ideally, but I’ll keep things simple with a straight win bet on the selection.

Another horse on a roll at present id Dave Evans’ Lager Time, and while the son of Tagula faces a sterner task then when winning handicaps at Lingfield on his last 2 starts, he still appeals as the type to improve further now he’s got his act together. In 3 qualifying runs he wasn’t knocked about having failed to negotiate the turns at Lingfield and here at Dunstall Park, but was given no excuses by Adam Kirby when exploding to life on his handicap bow, despite again running wide at the opening bend. The way he burst to the front from a poor position was the hallmark of one miles ahead of his opening mark, and he had no trouble defying a penalty next time. His half-brother Jairzihno showed smart form at up to 1m, and the step up to 7f shouldn’t be a problem for Lager Time today. One positive is that the race starts on a spur, and he will only have one bend to negotiate, so there should be no alarms in the early stages. Expect him to drift right on the run to the line, but that’s rarely a problem at Wolverhampton, and he can score again before going on to better things, especially granted a chance to race over a straight track and/or round a right-handed bend. We’ll be hearing more of this fella.  

Recommended Bets:

Back Spark of Genius  in the 14:00 Wolverhampton @ [2.50] (NAP)

Back Lager Time  in the 14:30 Wolverhampton @ [3.85] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107928844&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107928846&ex=1&origin=MRL

Royal Can Leave Backers Flush

There’s an old joke about a man who goes to his psychiatrist complaining that he sometimes dreams he’s a humble  teepee, but at other times imagines he’s a posh marquee. “What can this mean?” he pleads. “That’s simple,” says the doc, “you’re two tents.”  Cue much groaning.

There may be a point to this story, though, so bear with me. Highlight of the show at Huntingdon today appears to be the third outing over hurdles of the imposing My Tent Or Yours, and he will look a banker to many. If he shows the form which saw him put the smart Taquin de Seuil to the sword at Ascot in November, then he will prove hard to beat, but he’s managed to lose 3 races that he looked sure to win in his short career to date, and it’s fair to say there’s a touch of the Jekyll & Hyde about him (Two Tents, geddit?). He was twice beaten in bumpers last year having looked to be cruising on both occasions, and Tony McCoy was at pains to hold him up for as long as possible at Newbury last time, which again saw him trade short without quite getting on terms with the winner.  Owner J P McManus has recently shelled out a huge fee to buy the Supreme Novices’ favourite Jezki, which is hardly a vote of confidence in this fella, while he has developed a penchant for aiming one of his best novices at the Betfair Hurdle - Darlan was an unlucky loser last year, while Get Me Out of Here won in 2010, suggesting that the plan for My Tent Or Yours is a crack at that contest. He’s already been allotted a BHA mark of 140, but needs another run in order to meet the qualifying criteria for that Grade 3 handicap. An impressive win today will enable the handicapper to amend his rating upwards, and it’s safe to assume there will be no fireworks from McCoy today. Backing odds-on shots when victory is not a prerequisite is a risky business, and for that reason My Tent Or Yours cannot be entertained as a bet. If he wins, it will be by pouncing late, and his tendency to miss the last hurdle renders that tactic risky. Make no mistake, a fast-finishing second today is the ideal result for connections, for all an unimpressive win would fit the bill perfectly well.   

What’s the best way to approach the race, then? I’d be happy to lay the favourite at current odds, but given I’m no fan of John Ferguson’s Population, either, I’ll also look for something to back against that pair. The one which jumps off the page is Royal Guardsman, who won a decent bumper at Ascot last season for Colin Tizzard, and sits between My Tent Or Yours and Population on Timeform’s list of last season’s top bumper performers. The weight he receives from the favourite today helps offset that, and he has the physique of one who will do at least as well over hurdles. In need of his debut over obstacles at Newbury last month, he showed enough to suggest a move to owner Sue Nock’s small yard hasn’t seen his potential impaired, and he should be a fair bit shorter in the betting that he is.

Recommended Bets:

Back Royal Guardsman  in the 13:20 Huntingdon @ [9.0] (NAP)

Lay My Tent Or Yours  in the 13:20 Huntingdon @ [1.57]

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107901946&ex=1&origin=MRL

Missile To Hit Target

It’s something of a novelty to be racing on ground described as good to soft over jumps, but that’s the scenario at Doncaster today, and it means I can approach the racing with a little more confidence. The horse which interests me most at the meeting is Grey Missile, a son of Derby second Terimon trained by Jeremy Scott. Scott is an excellent placer of his horses as was advertised by the fact that 40% of his runners over fences last season finished in the first 2. That’s a stat many bigger names would kill for, and while the overall strike-rate has dropped this term, the Dulverton handler has bagged his first Grade 1 win courtesy of Melodic Rendezvous, and has his team in excellent order. Grey Missile is lightly raced for one his age, and has had just the solitary outing over fences, when a respectable fourth at Taunton in a race not run to suit his hold-up style. That experience won’t be lost on him, however, and he should find the run of things more to his liking today, with Back Bob Back, Vosges and Master Milan all likely to be prominent, and the result may depend to a large degree on whether the first-named of that trio is able to settle into a rhythm at the head of affairs. If, as expected, he’s hassled for the lead, then the race looks set up for the hold-up horses, and Grey Missile in particular. The best of his hurdles form makes a current mark of 110 look on the lenient side, and after only 5 starts over obstacles, he ought to be open to further progress. It’s true that his jumping will be tested against more experienced handicappers, and that aspect is something of an unknown, but he’ll be ridden to get a good view of his obstacles, and if jumping fluently, he’ll take plenty of beating. Gores Island would be a big danger if jumping better than he did on his chase debut at Newbury, but his overall profile is unconvincing, and his race-ending blunder at the fourth last was one of a series of errors, and he was also very erratic on his chase debut at Stratford, so isn’t one to go overboard about despite his inherent talent.

The closing bumper at Doncaster looks very competitive, but one who is sure to come in for plenty of support is the Alan King runner, Lotus Pond. The Beneficial gelding is from the family on smart staying chaser Keen Leader, and was second to the highly-promising Red Devil Boys over C&D on his debut last month. That effort reads well at first glance, but 2 factors make him look a poor bet to me. Firstly, John Ferguson’s charge was almost on his knees after meeting interference, but was still able to leave Lotus Pond trailing in his wake, with some very poor looking animals not that far behind, and the form (winner aside) looks pretty weak. Secondly, while his pedigree reads well at first glance, Lotus Pond’s dam was of no account herself, and has produced 7 foals. Of those 7, only 3 have made the racecourse, and Lotus Pond was the first to show any ability. It would be pleasing to think that he will take after his dam’s half-brother and prove himself a smart jumper in time, but it’s more realistic to assume he’ll be no better than he showed on debut, and the bare form of that will see him struggle in any competitive event. He’s worth laying for a place on that basis. 

Recommended Bets:

Back  Grey Missile  in the 15:25 Doncaster @ [5.0] (NAP)

Lay Lotus Pond for a place in the 15:55 Doncaster @ [2.4] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107889398&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107889401&ex=1&origin=MRL

Piping Hot At Dunstall Park

With reduced field sizes in handicaps these days, the horse with a “row of ducks eggs” next to its name has become an almost mythical creature, but visitors to Dunstall Park this afternoon will get the chance to view one, and what a treat it promises to be! The horse in question is Pipers Piping (15:20), now running for owner/trainer John Butler have done sterling service for Alastair Lidderdale. It appears at first glance that the son of Noverre has lost the plot after that stable switch, and in 6 starts for his new yard he’s finished no better than tenth, which is remarkable achievement in itself. Things are rarely that simple, however, and there were palpable signs last time that his drought was about to come to an end. In a race run shortly after the Kempton stewards left for their annual Christmas party, Pipers Piping caught the eye of just about every racereader in the country as everything seemed to conspire against him. A good draw was quickly negated by an awkward exit from the stalls, and the horse then travelled notably strongly only for the normally reliable Adam Kirby to make a couple of poor choices regarding his best route home. The rider accepted the situation pretty quickly, and his mount seemed to be full of running as he crossed the line. That unfortunate effort may prove a blessing in disguise, as Pipers Piping is able to race off an identical mark today, and should find the race run much more to his liking.  Market rivals Arabian Flight, Flag of Glory, Koo And The Gang and Spin A wish all tend to race to the fore, and while either of the first pair would be dangerous if able to dictate, the likelihood of any runner gaining a soft lead look remote. The likely strong pace will be ideal for the selection if again being held up, and he will rarely find a better opportunity to end his poor run.   

Earlier on the card, Spark of Genius looks to have excellent claims to end a frustrating spell for Alan McCabe, and her maiden win for another yard last time looks rock solid, both in form terms and the clock. She is well up to leading throughout again, but the overnight odds have shortened dramatically, and the best angle may be to back her in a forecast with the frustrating, but capable Sir Bruno.  There is an “RFC” market available on Betfair, but there’s limited appeal in the insurance aspect of this particular dual forecast in truth with Sir Bruno placed on more than half his lifetime starts, but with only a solitary win to his name. Backing the exacta, available through the “Tote GB” tab, looks the better option.  

Recommended Bets:

Back  Pipers Piping in the 15:20 Wolverhampton  @ [4.4] (NAP)

Back Spark of Genius/Sir Bruno (6x2 Exacta)  in the 14:20 Wolverhampton (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107876018&ex=1&origin=MRL

Brass In Pocket?

Ralph Beckett has his team in excellent order as he showed when sending out a 1-2 in what looked a competitive 3-y-o handicap at Lingfield a week ago. On that occasion the unbeaten Foxtrot Jubilee landed a protracted gamble which saw him go off at a remarkably short 4/9 on track. It wasn’t all one-way traffic, however, as stablemate Fortinbrass pushed him all the way to the line, with just a head between the pair when it counted. They pulled 3½ lengths clear of a thriving rival there, and there is no doubt that the form is solid. Fortinbrass is turned out again in the 15:50 at Wolverhampton, and he can prove himself well handicapped by scoring off the same mark as at Lingfield. The obvious danger is Archie Stevens, who is on an upward curve himself, and wasn’t hard pressed to beat Golden Flower over C&D on New Year’s Day. That rival regained the winning thread over 5f here yesterday, which will make Tom Dascombe’s gelding a popular choice, but it’s worth mentioning that Golden Flower is all speed, and her failure to settle in front set things up perfectly for Archie Stevens last time, and he’s arguably a little flattered by the ease of that success. Rene Mathis is the other obvious player at the weights, but he’ll need to settle better than he did when winning a C&D maiden last time if he’s to fulfil his undoubted potential.

In the following contest, I was initially keen on Invigilator, but that enthusiasm has evaporated to some degree after both Colourbearer and Bitaphon, the pair he beat over C&D last time, failed to advertise the form since the declarations for this contest were made. The market will be very informative, as several of these have shaped as if capable of leaving poor recent form behind, and both Fred Willetts and Khawatim have already attracted early money. That pair were both better than the bare result when held up on their most recent start, and appeal as very well treated on old form. There seems certain to be a strong pace with Strong Man, Dancing Maite and Alive And Kicking all having made the running last time, and several of the others tend to race prominently. With Fred Willetts in a refitted visor today, it seems likely that the patient tactics employed last time will be abandoned, and that swings the pendulum in favour of Noel Quinlan’s charge, who has been held up in recent starts. The selection showed decent form as a juvenile in France for Jean-Claude Rouget, and has been dropping steadily down the handicap after a series of poor runs for his current owners. He’s not stayed still for long, though, and has already passed through the hands of Geoff Harker, Keith Dalgleish and Paul Midgley before joining the Quinlan yard in September. He was doing his best work late on over 5f at Lingfield last time, in a race where those to the fore were seen to advantage, and the switch in trip and venue are likely to show him in a completely different light today. For those who want to find one at bigger odds, it’s more than possible that the reliable Dancing Welcome will be able to set aside a couple of uncharacteristically laboured efforts now dropping back to her last winning mark, and she’s another who is sure to be doing her best work late. 

Recommended Bets:

Back  Fortinbrass  in the 15:50 Wolverhampton  @ [3.85] (NAP)

Back Khawatim  in the 16:20 Wolverhampton  @ [4.8] (NB)

Back Dancing Welcome  in the 16:20 Wolverhampton  @ [27.0]

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107871142&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107871144&ex=1&origin=MRL

Back Bewley's Beauty At Musselburgh

George Bewley may not be a household name, but the Hawick handler has punched above his weight this season, and his Inoogoo looks a solid bet in the beginners’ chase at Musselburgh (14:10) today. A big eye-catcher on his chase bow at Perth, where he appeared to be travelling as well as anything when falling at the third last, he confirmed that promise when third to subsequent December Gold Cup winner Unioniste at Aintree, and was not knocked about when out of his depth in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time. The test at Musselburgh looks sure to suit him, and is preferred to likely favourite Sydney Paget, who  also took a heavy fall on his chase bow at Kelso. Don McCain’s gelding was again let down by his jumping to some degree over hurdles last time, and while respected, is likely to be overbet given the reputation of the McCain yard. A bigger threat may well come from Viva Colonia, who was the best of these over hurdles, and is much better than the form of his chase debut suggests. That run, his last for David O’Meara was probably needed after an absence, and new trainer Brian Ellison is likely to get more out of with that pipe-opener under his belt. With money expected to arrive for him at some point, it may pay to take Betfair SP on Inoogoo.

At Wolverhampton, best bet on a mammoth card is the Ed Dunlop-trained Flying Tempo in the extended 1m handicap at 15:00. The selection improved over a longer trip at Nottingham on his penultimate outing before getting no luck in running on his polytrack debut here in November. The drop in trip isn’t ideal, but he’s a strong traveller who promises to do better still, and he’s meeting an exposed bunch of rivals today. Best of those is Una Bella Cosa, who has showed improved form in a Southwell maiden in November and wasn’t discredited on her nursery debut last time. She looks sure to be on the sharp end, and should trade shorter than her SP in running, but may end up setting the race up for Flying Tempo’s late-running style.  

Recommended Bets:

Back  Inoogoo  in the 14:10 Musselburgh  @ [BSP] (NAP)

Back Flying Tempo   in the 15:00 Wolverhampton  @ [4.1] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107855752&ex=1&origin=MRL

 http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107845430&ex=1&origin=MRL

Folly To Ignore This Fool

Truth is never static, and what was wise last year may be folly now. That sounds like the basis of a resolution of sorts, which may be appropriate for the season. In this specific instance, the truth concerns both April Fool and Willie Twiston Davies, who team up in the 15:20 at Lingfield today. The former hasn’t been a betting proposition for a while, often showing his usual bright speed, but not seeing his races out. That may be about to change shortly, as Ron Harris’ gelding is never one to dwell in the doldrums for long, and has been cut plenty of slack by the handicapper. This time last year, he bounced back from a series of lesser efforts to win with something to spare at Kempton, and he landed another couple of races before the end of April. He’s dropped to a mark just 2 lb higher than his lowest winning mark of last season, and looks sure to get his own way in front again today. The latter made a less-than-smooth transition to the role of Flat apprentice around the time of his mount’s last win, and has been the subject of poor reviews from myself and others through the summer. One thing I’ve always maintained is that the plethora of rides Willie’s been given would ensure a steep learning curve, and the penny has begun to drop in the last few weeks, with the teenager looking much more polished, and clearly growing in confidence. He’s certainly not one to lay blind any more, and is likely to play a prominent role in the apprentice championship in 2013 if continuing in the same vein. Hopefully he can prove the point by making all, and making fools out of the knockers. Al’s memory should slot into second place from flagfall, and looks the main danger.

Harris has claims of a double in the last, when Lady Mango drops in class after losing her form in the latter half of 2012. She’s a reliable performer on her day, and while the resurgent Bussa will be very hard to beat, there isn’t much else in this contest, and she’s undeniably well treated on the pick of her form. A 4-time winner last year, she’s fully effective over C&D, and is 3 lb lower than for her latest win. She’ll bounce back sooner rather than later, and is worth chancing at double-figure odds.  

  

Recommended Bets:

Back  April Fool  in the 15:20 Lingfield  @ [8.2] (NAP)

Back Lady Mango  in the 15:50 Lingfield  @ [10.5] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107840364&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107840366&ex=1&origin=MRL

Gilzean Set To Score At Fakenham

Spurs (and Dundee) fans will be familiar with the legendary reputation of Alan “Gillie” Gilzean, one of the finest headers of the ball in the modern game. It’s nearly 40 years since he netted his last domestic goal, but it may be that another Gilzean will be on the scoresheet today as the horse by that name looks to hold an outstanding chance in the closing handicap hurdle at Fakenham (15:40). This Gilzean, a son of Flemensfirth trained by Alex Hales, served notice that he was on a lenient mark when pulling clear with the winner at Catterick (25f) on his recent handicap debut, and he’s able to run off a mark 4 lb lower than for future engagements today. His opposition looks sparse, with the main threat on paper being the reformed Everdon Brook, who has won 4 times this season, including on his last 2 starts for new trainer David Thompson. A further hike in the weights for winning a poor contest at Musselburgh last time makes him look vulnerable, however, while both Native Colony and Smart Exit were most disappointing on their most recent outings. Go Amwell is a rogue who was flattered by his proximity over C&D last time, and the quirky Ben Cee Pee M is having his first start in over 13 months. The last named is hard to rule out, especially with the in-form Oliver Sherwood booking McCoy for the ride, but to my mind Gilzean will be very hard to peg back with his featherweight, aided by the claim of the underused Killian Moore.  

I was recently writing comments for an unraced Philip Hobbs bumper runner, and was considering making it a selection when I noticed that the Hobbs strike rate in bumpers for 2012/13 had dipped markedly below previous seasons’ totals. The horse in question didn’t run, but is engaged again today, and I was about to add a similar caveat to its short comment when I decided to re-check the stats. I was interested to see that the fortunes of the Minehead yard have picked up somewhat, and it’s worth noting that the last 6 bumper runners from the yard have finished  323311, with the last 2, Quick Decisson and Horizontal Speed, running out very impressive winners. Today, Hobbs saddles the impeccably-bred Mighty Mobb in the bumper at Exeter, and he is the clear pick on pedigree, being a half-brother to the classy but ill-fated Kennel Hill, out of a half-sister to the dam of Feltham winner Darkness and promising novice chaser Cantlow. The only dangers on paper are Guanciale (Brendan Powell) and Yabadabadoo (Emma Lavelle). Lavelle can ready a newcomer, and her record in bumpers is decent, but I was surprised to find that she failed to train a single winner in this sphere (from 18 runners) last year, whereas Brendan Powell has the best recent record of the trio, with 6 wins from 22 runs in the current season. A closer look reveals that 3 of those wins have come in junior bumpers, though, and Guanciale comes from a family of dour stayers, most notably 2000 Welsh National winner Jocks Cross. All in all, the chances of Mighty Mobb making a winning debut look to have been underestimated by the market.

Recommended Bets:

Back  Gilzean  in the 15:40 Fakenham  @ [4.2] (NAP)

Back Mighty Mobb  in the 15:50 Exeter  @ [3.35] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107834060&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107834047&ex=1&origin=MRL