Thursday 28 February 2013

Hell For Leather


Today's jumps meetings at Taunton and Ludlow today look pretty trappy, and the best bet of the day may well come over at Southwell, where Hellbender (16:50) looks to have outstanding claims at the weights in a 6f handicap big on numbers, but decidedly lacking in depth. An improved performer since switching to the Worksop yard of Shaun Harris and tried in a tongue tie, Hellbender has also been given a real chance by the handicapper before his new mark kicks in.

A winner over 7f here earlier in the month, he improved again to go down narrowly to the well-handicapped Light Burst over the same distance, showing an excellent attitude to rally after being passed by the winner. That was all the more meritorious, as he was 3 lb out of the weights, and was unable to get an easy time at the head of affairs. He's been reassessed for that run, but is able to race of his old mark here, so is effectively 3 lb lower than for that effort, and 5 lb "well in" based on his future mark.

A draw in the widest stall of all (Upper Lambourn, due to race from 14 is a non runner) is nothing like the disadvantage it's perceived to be over 6f at Southwell, and Hellbender has the early speed to sit handy, and crucially avoid kickback. If doing so, he looks much the likeliest winner, and the presence of the mercurial Michael Murphy on his back is another positive, with the rider having a 3 from 7 record for the often-underestimated Harris yard.

The danger on form is Nant Saeson, but he is untried on the surface, which is always a concern. As a son of Elusive City, he ought to take to the surface, but that's still something of a gamble. One who may be overpriced on form is Steel City Boy, who will be ridden as usual by Ann Stokell, and won't attract the cash as a result, but he's been running well despite the rider's limitations of late, and could prove a threat if Stokell can negotiate a path from the inside berth.

One trainer who is enjoying a great time of things since Southwell was passed fit for racing again is Mick Appleby, of whom I've been a big fan for some time. His record with fibresand runners in 2013 is an amazing 7 wins from 7 runs, and he'll be looking to add a couple more courtesy of The Lock Master (16:20) and Our Ivor (17:20).

The latter appears to have outstanding claims, and is a bet if odds against in the last, but for my second selection, I'll row in with The Lock Master, who has yet to win off a mark in the 80's, but who faces a weaker field than he might in this grade. The selection was arguably fortunate to score over 1m here last time, with the overly-strong pace setting things up for him, but he'll be better served by the longer trip on this occasion, and appears to have only Honest Deal to beat. Ascendant is also quite strong in the market, but I'm reluctant to back a 7-y-o who has yet to taste competitive action on the Southwell track.

Recommendations:

Both at Southwell

Back Hellbender in the 16:50 @ [5.1]

Back The Lock Master in the 16:20 @ [3.25]

Wednesday 27 February 2013

Evan Help Us!


Llancarfan handler Evan Williams did this column a good turn when Tornado In Milan won at Plumpton on Monday in the colours of Angela Rucker, and I’m hopeful the same combination can come up trumps again today. The pair are represented in a competitive handicap at Wincanton (15:30) by the progressive Islandmagee, a recruit from the Crawford yard near Larne from which the name derives.

Islandmagee had hinted at improvement before landing a conditional jockeys’ contest at Kempton last time under Adam Wedge, and while that was a rather messy contest, there are reasons for believing the son of Heron Island is much better than the bare result. The slow pace rather flattered runner-up Star of Massini, who was able to dictate, and it was no great surprise to see him beaten by the aforementioned Tornado In Milan the other day, but both the winner and the third did well to come from off that stop/start gallop, and Thundering Home backed that point up by winning well at Sandown on Friday. Wedge was at pains to put the selection into the race as late as possible at Kempton, and a minor error at the last mean that he was only able to put his head in front on the line. It was obvious that he was going like much the best horse from some way out, however, and he’s likely to prove that point today, when a stronger gallop is sure to suit his style of racing.

There are plenty of dangers despite the small field, and In The Crowd is the only one who can’t be fancied.  Suerte Al Salto and Tiny Tenor both give the impression there’s more to come now they go handicapping for the first time, while Home Run and Xaarcet have been making hay already at this level, and can boast 8 wins between them this season. That quartet all command respect, and the hope is that the current odds on Islandmagee will drift as race time approaches. Such a scenario would be no great concern, for all he makes plenty of appeal at current odds.

Over at Bangor, I’m hoping that the form of another recent selection can be boosted by Bobby Dove in the 17f handicap chase for novices at 16:50. Bobby Dove is a son of 1994 Champion Hurdle winner Flakey Dove, and like most from that renowned damline, races in the red and yellow colours of the Price family. He showed little in his early starts, but has improved over fences of late, and caught my eye when attempting to give Denali Highway a race at Leicester in December. He duly built on that promise when winning next time, and was rather unlucky not to follow up at Ludlow a week ago, looking sure to overhaul Oranger when a last-fence error saw him lose vital momentum. His jumping remains a minor worry, but the fences at Bangor are more forgiving than most, and this looks a weaker contest. 

Tara Rose was suited by the run of the race when giving an idling Violin Davis a scare here last time, and may be flattered by that bare form, especially with the drop in trip a slight negative, and the main danger looks to be Victor Dartnall’s Starsky des Mottes, who is gradually progressive, and ran his best race when second at Uttoxeter last time. A 5 lb rise for that defeat looks enough, though, and Bobby Dove looks the clear pick of the weights.


Recommendations:

Back Islandmagee in the 15:30 Wincanton @ [4.5] (NAP)


Back Bobby Dove in the 16:50 Bangor @ [3.5] (NB)

Monday 25 February 2013

Queen For A Day


It’s not the most sparkling of cards at Plumpton today, but there are winners to be had, and hopefully I’ve found one whose claims are much clearer than some poor form figures would imply. The horse in question is Southway Queen (16:40), who has achieved very little under Rules, but who has a lowly mark as a result, and several reasons for thinking improvement is in the offing. The mare is by obscure West Country sire Morpeth, and an own-sister to Southway Star, who has won 7 times for trainer Susan Gardner having (like most by the sire) started off with Jimmy Frost. Like her sister, Southway Queen was well held in bumpers for the patient Frost yard and had one fruitless spin over hurdles before moving on, and in the intervening years has been quite successful in points, winning 2 and finishing second 4 times. A belated return to timber this winter has seen her make the requisite appearances to gain a handicap mark, and those runs came over inadequate trips, and without recourse to a hard ride on either occasion. Suitably qualified, she now steps up to 21f and gets the help of a tongue tie for the first time under Rules. Those factors are likely to see considerable improvement, and the shrewd, but underrated Gardner could see boost an already healthy 17% strike-rate in handicaps over recent years.

The main danger, to my eyes at least, is topweight Midnight Belle, who travelled notably well before failing to stay 3m under a huge weight at Taunton last time. The winner of that contest, Tarabela, followed up at Towcester yesterday, and it would be best to mark that performance up. Lady of Geneva kept on stoutly in a 3¼m handicap at Huntingdon last time, and may do better, but she clearly lacks pace, and this sharp track and drop in trip aren’t sure to suit.

One who looks sure to be suited by the nature of the Plumpton circuit, and indeed by a move away from heavy ground is Tornado In Milan, who runs in the 2m handicap hurdle at 15:10. Evan Williams’ Irish import looked a good prospect on his bumper debut for Eoin Doyle, but his keen nature has prevented him from building on that promise, for all he scored on his UK debut. He’s been hinting at better in recent starts, though, and a third to the much-vaunted Mr Mole at Taunton last time represented his best effort over hurdles. With runner-up Home Run going close next time, and fourth-placed Marie des Anges bolting up over fences, the form looks solid. That came in a hood, which is retained in a bid to keep this excitable sort settled, and Tornado In Milan is capable of running these ragged if ridden aggressively, which is admittedly not usually the Paul Moloney way.

Of the opposition, Star of Massini is still a maiden, and may prove flattered by getting the run of things at Kempton last time, while it would be dangerous to assume that Right Stuff was really back in the groove when winning a Flat claimer at Lingfield last time in which sole serious opponent La Estrella wasn’t seen to best effect. Brody Bleu is interesting on handicap bow for rookie handler Robert Walford, but the merit  of his easy point win a year ago is hard to gauge (to put it kindly), and a long absence is hardly cause for optimism.


  
Recommendations:


Both At Plumpton

Back Southway Queen in the 16:50 @ [8.6] (NAP)


Back Tornado In Milan in the 15:10 @ [4.3] (NB)








Saturday 23 February 2013

Have Your House On Brick


With the clock firmly ticking on the countdown to the Cheltenham Festival, Kempton's Racing Plus-sponsored card has traditionally provided a last opportunity for the big yards to unleash their novice hurdle trump cards. It's a meeting which has seen a first UK sight of Triumph Hurdle winners Soldatino and Zarkandar in 2 of the last 3 years, and one which has played a big part in shaping the Triumph Hurdle result - its proximity to Cheltenham in terms of time much more important than the topography of the track. The Adonis Hurdle has been the historical Triumph prep race, but in recent years, the all-aged Dovecote Hurdle has also been dominated by the juvenile division, with Triumph favourite Grumeti beating Paul Nicholls' Dodging Bullets in 2012, and 2 of the previous 3 winners also 4-y-o's. 


This year, Nicholls has made no secret of the regard in which he holds Lac Fontana, and the ex-French gelding is owned by the same partnership of Jared Sullivan and Chris Giles, although it's the silks of Sullivan's company Potensis which he sports today. Bold words at Nicholls' pre-Festival press day have seen his Triumph odds clipped, and he is clear favourite for today's race based on that opinion, rather than what he achieved when runner-up in a distinctly ordinary Newbury novice first time out.  There's no doubt he's open to stacks of improvement, and the trainer's opinion is respected, but it seems to me that the outstanding candidate in this contest has been ignored simply because we already know how good he is. That horse is Brick Red, and he mustn't be underestimated.

Brick Red hasn’t come the traditional route to the Dovecote (Kempton 15:15), and isn’t a sexy, lightly-raced novice with an exotic history. He’s a hardened campaigner who made his hurdles debut almost a year ago, and has shown a liking for a sharp 2 miles on a flat, right-handed track. His impressive win in the Scottish County Hurdle at Musselburgh early this month is without doubt the strongest form on offer here, and he has ideal conditions to repeat that performance. Unlike Lac Fontana and Black Spirit, he doesn’t hold fancy entries in Grade 1 company at Cheltenham, with the County Hurdle his sole option. That has clearly put punters off him, but it really shouldn’t, as he’ll surely be primed for a big run, and while unlikely to take another leap forward in form terms, already has a comfortable cushion based on the published ratings. He’s a massive 27 lbs clear of Lac Fontana on the figures, even when taking weight-for-age and penalties into account, and simply should not be a bigger price than that rival. 

Of the others, former Hunt Cup winner Forgotten Voice had his stamina stretched when a fair fourth on his handicap bow over C&D last time. He’s will need a sharp 2m to be seen to best effect over hurdles, and today’s better ground will help him get home, but he really can’t be supported until showing he can channel his energy more efficiently. Black Spirit showed his best form on the Flat last autumn and has been nibbled at for the Supreme Novices’ on the back of positive home reports. Barry Geraghty will be otherwise engaged for that race, so Andrew Tinkler gets a feel of him today. He’s not one to dismiss as the yard’s neglected for that reason, but faces a stiff task on his first try over hurdles. That comment applies also to Figaro, for whom a long absence and lack of any big-race entries are both significant negatives. It’s interesting that Alan King pitches Fair Trade into this race, as he’s likely to blow a potentially lenient handicap mark if going close, but is another whose form is likely to take off at some stage this spring.  All in all, though, Brick Red looks much the safest bet. 

In the feature handicap at 15:50, I can't argue with the pair who head the market, with marginal preference for Rolling Aces, given Wyck Hill won't get an easy lead, but I will risk ridicule by sticking with a horse who let me down badly last time. Mister Hyde is arguably well named, with a good run often followed by a horror story, but I'm grateful to Dan Kelly for pointing out an interesting pattern in his form. Whether it's salient or mere coincidence is debatable, but all the gelding's poor runs have come when partnered by Richie McLernon, and the jockey was certainly at fault in going off like a scalded cat on this dubious stayer at Sandown last time. He did trade at odds on before capitulating there, and had earlier shown that Kempton's 3m trip suited ideally when storming clear under Jason Maguire at the King George meeting. He's an all-or-nothing character, but does appeal as a likely player on one of his going days, and he's nothing like the rag that his current odds suggest. 

Recommendations:

Back Brick Red in the 15:15 Kempton @ [4.0] (NAP)

Back Mister Hyde  in the 15:50 Kempton @ [50.0] (NB)

Thursday 21 February 2013

My Way Or The Highway


Caroline Bailey has a deserved reputation as one of the country’s leading horsewomen, and the daughter of the legendary Dick Saunders was not only the first woman to ride a winner at Cheltenham (on Frank Gilman’s Ptarmigan in 1978), but has handled superb jumpers like Teaplanter, Teeton Mill, Castle Mane and Gunner Welburn to success in points/hunters. Her trademark has always been the ability to school her young chasers to an exceptional standard, and that was again in evidence when Denali Highway made a most impressive handicap chase debut at Leicester in December. The gelding won a bumper on his racecourse debut before failing to progress over timber for Alan King, but looked transformed when seeing off his opposition in a novice handicap with contemptuous ease. The only one to give him any kind of race was next-time-out winner Bobby Dove, but a huge leap at the last open ditch had that one crying enough, and the race was over long before he strolled across the line. The son of Governor Brown has taken a rise of 10 lbs for that win, but in my opinion he had plenty more up his sleeve than that, and the jumping test provided by Huntingdon will suit him to a tee. He’s built to carry weight, so conceding lumps to inferior rivals should be no problem, and he looks decidedly overpriced at around 9/2. Of the others, Cruchain would be a big danger if avoiding mistakes, but he’s virtually guaranteed to clout at least one fence these days, and that militates against his chances despite his mark being undeniably lenient.  Grey Missile was a selection for this column last time, and is another on a good mark, but his tendency to carry his head on one side when asked to challenge then is somewhat off-putting, and perhaps the biggest danger will be bottom-weight Join The Navy, who will be picking up ground late, and could benefit if the pace is overly strong.

The following novice chase is something of a conundrum, with 3 looking closely matched on form, but none of the trio having fully convinced with their jumping. Tetlami is the obvious favourite despite being put firmly in his place by Overturn at Musselburgh last time, and the fact he was chasing such a classy rival perhaps forgives his sticky jumping there, but he’s very short in the betting, and it may be worth chancing Act of Kalanisi at the prices. Richard Newland’s gelding is best on a right-handed track and while he’s fallen/unseated on his last 2 starts, his jumping is no more of a concern than that of Tetlami and Tony Star (beaten when falling last time). Odds of 6/1+ on Betfair are overly generous on balance.

Recommended Bets:

Back Denali Highway in the 14:30 Huntingdon @ [5.3]  (NAP)

Back Act of Kalanisi  in the 15:00 Huntingdon @ [7.2] (NB)


Tuesday 19 February 2013

Order Me A Double


It’s been a fruitful season for Slad-based trainer Tom George, and Seigneur des Bois provided another debutant winner for the yard at Ffos Las on Sunday. He sends the appropriately-named Good Order up to Wetherby (15:15) today, and looks to have found an ideal opening for the Alflora gelding who carries the colours of Sharon Nelson, best known as part-owner of George’s Cheltenham Festival winner Galileo. Good Order scored in similar conditions to today’s at Wincanton last season, and made a satisfactory return when second to handicap blot Ballygarvey at Lingfield last time. He’ll be sharper for that belated return, and with question marks over his main rivals, ought to get back to winning ways. No Secrets has been backed into favouritism after winning at Taunton last time, but that race was gifted to him by the frustrating Fine Parchment, who had the race in safe keeping until stopping to nothing on the run-in, a feat he repeated to some degree at Sandown last Friday. That win clearly flatters No Secrets to some degree, and he’s not been the most robust in the past, so makes very little appeal at current odds. The main threat may well come from See U Bob, who was capable of better form in his days with Paul Nolan, and who shaped as if ready to peak when chasing home Buddy Bolero at Leicester last time. The longer trip is a slight concern, but he saw things out well enough there and represents an attractive forecast option.

One of the more interesting races of the day is the 16:15 Taunton, where a few of the runners look potential “plot” horses, most notably the topweight Bold Raider who has been unsighted in 3 starts for Jonjo O’Neill. Others to catch the eye are Posh Emily (course specialist who has been running without preferred headgear this season) and Jimmy Frost’s French import Sarenice, who won a bumper for his previous yard, and has been handled with extreme patience by the Champion Hurdle-winning former jockey. Sometimes you can’t spot the wood for the trees, though, and there is a much more obvious winner in the race who has shown his worth more recently. Admiral Blake is no star, as his official mark of 69 testifies, but he’s run very well to finish second to a pair of subsequent winners on 2 of his last 3 starts, and there is no doubt that he’s capable of winning a race of his current lowly rating. A 10-length beating by Fabreaga at Lingfield was a fair effort, but an even better one when noting how far he came clear of the field, and the winner defied an 8 lb rise to beat 17 others at Kempton last time. The handicapper has been kind to leave Laura Young’s 6-y-o on the same mark as for that effort, and he’s sure to go well – perhaps he can foil a coup in the process!   

Recommended Bets:

Back Good Order in the 15:15 Wetherby @ [3.2]  (NAP)

Back Admiral Blake  in the 16:15 Taunton @ [5.0] (NB)


Sunday 17 February 2013

Get What You Want At Ffos Las


Pickings are very much on the slim side at Ffos Las and Market Rasen today, and finding a reliable betting medium isn’t easy. There are few obvious bets around, but a bit of digging will hopefully gain its reward.

At Ffos Las, the “Braceys The Friendly Builders Merchant” Novices´ Handicap Chase at 14:50 is a race which makes minimal appeal at first glance, with only Orange Nassau and Derwen Pride having shown any form last time out. That pair are expected to dominate if the market is to be believed, but neither looks well treated, with Orange Nassau firmly put in his place in a 5-runner affair last time, and hailing from a yard whose runners of late have been showing worrying signs that all isn’t well. He’s sure to start favourite as his record is less patchy than that of his rivals, but I can’t bring myself to back a Charlie Longsdon horse at present (only one of the yard’s last 10 runners over jumps has been beaten less than 25 lengths, which is a serious concern for such a fastidious operation). Derwen Pride has been beaten on all 5 starts at Ffos las, and hails from a yard which is going through its now-typical winter drought. Peter Bowen’s last winner came in the shape of Sizing Santiago at Newbury in November, and he went through a similar barren spell at the same time last year.

Material Boy and Russian Song both ran poorly last time, and get a change of headgear today, with the former trying both a visor and tongue tie for the first time, and the latter having his usual cheekpieces swapped for blinkers. That could be enough to spark either or both to life, but the one who makes most appeal is Callhimwhatyouwant. Dr Richard Newland has his team in excellent order, with Ardkilly Witness running a blinder to be second in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Hurdle at Haydock yesterday, and all of his runners in February running at least respectably, and he has developed a reputation as having a very keen eye for recruits from the pointing field. He may well have unearthed another one with this son of Old Vic out of a full-sister to Pertemps Hurdle third Alexanderthegreat, with their dam herself a half-sister to Fissure Seal, who won that contest under its former guise. It’s fair to say that Callhimwhatyouwant is bred to stay extremely well, and his ventures over hurdles for his current yard are likely to be eclipsed given this switch to fences and step up in trip. The selections was known as a bold-jumping front runner in his time between the flags, and he wasn’t out of the first 2 in 5 completed starts in the 2011/12 campaign. The highlight, arguably, was an unlucky defeat (rider lost irons at last before rallying strongly) at the hands of the very useful Carthalawn at Horse & Jockey last March. That came in an open contest, and while assessing point form can be fraught with danger, that looks easily good enough form to win a race like this. A return to forcing tactics looks on the cards today, and that is expected to coincide with a change of fortune.

The “Sun Trade Windows” Handicap Chase at 15:20 provides another opportunity to take advantage of the Ferdy Murphy to Tom George angle which has provided several winners this season. The Crossed Fingers Partnership have seen their colours carried to success by Big Fella Thanks, Desperate Dex and Gods Own this season, with the first pair both making the move south to Tom George from Murphy’s Leyburn yard. The latest of their horses to make that transition is Seigneur des Bois, who scored off today’s handicap mark at Southwell in April 2011 before losing his way somewhat last season. Still only a 7-y-o, he’s open to improvement, and looks potentially well treated on his current mark. That win came of good ground, but it was more likely a return to form for the yard, rather than underfoot conditions which was responsible, and he’s bred to need deeper ground and a longer trip, both of which he gets today. If his new trainer can coax him back to the form he showed over fences as a youngster for Adrien Lacombe, then he would look something of a good thing.

Recommended Bets:

Back Callhimwhatyouwant in the 14:50 Ffos Las @ [7.2]  (NAP)

Back Seigneur des Bois  in the 15:20 FFos Las @ [7.0] (NB)


Friday 15 February 2013

Leave It To Steve



With the Cheltenham Festival now only a few weeks away, expect to spend the next fortnight or so being bamboozled by “stats” which will purportedly save you the trouble of looking at the reams of form on offer for the all-important big races.  Some of this information will prove thought-provoking, while some, such as the nugget I found last year telling me that “19 of the last 20 winners of race X either raced prominently or were held up” are utter gibberish. The fundamental truth is that the primary job in finding winners is to identify the best horse, and to consider backing said horse when the price dictates.

That looks to be the case in the 15.20 at Fakenham today where Viva Steve really ought to be a clear favourite, but is disputing that spot with Sound Investment. Mick Channon’s son of Flemensfirth has much the best piece of form on offer, and he pulled well clear of the others when second to If In Doubt at Towcester last month. The winner that day had split a pair of subsequent scorers in a strong Folkestone event previously, and plenty of those at Towcester look better than the dead wood they appeared on the day. Race times can be hard to gauge over jumps, but the time of that 2m event compared very favourably with the C&D handicap on the card, and it’s undoubtedly solid. Towcester and Fakenham could hardly be more different, but given that Viva Steve was a promising second on his sole bumper start at Fontwell’s tight circuit, so that can hardly be used as a stick to beat him with. The step up in trip is sure to suit on both pedigree and racecourse evidence, and the standard he sets already surpasses the average required to win a race of this nature according to historical evidence. The doubters will point out that Channon is winnerless in the last fortnight, whereas Paul Nicholls (Sound Investment) and David Pipe (Barney Cool) have had 17 winners between them in the same timeframe. This would only be relevant if Channon’s team was genuinely out of sorts, but the selection ran just a couple of weeks ago and outstripped today’s rivals in terms of performance, while Channon’s last 4 runners have all made the frame, with one of them denied in the very last stride. Sound Investment is undoubtedly a danger, as he was well on top when winning a lesser race at Taunton last time, and his third to Puffin Billy at Newbury reads well. It’s worth bearing in mind that the runner-up that day was a massive outsider, though, and the form is less solid that it first appears.

Sometimes the best horse isn’t the best bet in a race, though, and it would be a stretch to call Arachnophobia a standout in the 15.05 at Lingfield, particularly given a losing run stretching back to March 2010. He did bounce back to form behind a well-handicapped sort at Kempton last time, and is the most obvious front runner in today’s line-up. With most of his main rivals regularly being held up, this looks a good opportunity for Martin Bosley’s gelding to return to winning ways, or at the very least trade at short odds in the run. He’s traded at less than half his BSP on 4 of his last 5 starts, and while not the force of old, it’s worth remembering that he has spent most of his career competing at a higher level than this. Of the others to have led recently, Baby Dottie did too much in front over 6f last time, and wouldn’t have obvious claims of staying this longer trip if ridden in the same fashion, while Hereford Boy is traditionally held up, and a flirtation with forcing the pace over 1m here last time saw him finish weakly, so it remains to be seen whether that experiment is continued. Arachnophobia has gone well when held up before, so doesn’t have to lead, but it seems such tactics will need to be under serious consideration again, given how effective they proved at Kempton.   

I’m not one to tip odds-on shots, but the 4/5 on offer for Discovery Bay in Lingfield’s opener looks much too big, and while the drop to a seller looks an odd move, it’s perhaps significant that Charlie Swan also has him entered in a much more competitive handicap on 
tomorrow’s card. He looks a banker for multiple bets, for those so inclined.

Recommended Bets:

Back Viva Steve  in the 15:20 Fakenham @ [3.45]  (NAP)

Back Arachnophobia  in the 15:05 Lingfield @ [7.0] (NB)


Tuesday 12 February 2013

Crawfords Can Take The Biscuit


As usual, the imperious David Cleary will be a hard act to follow after tipping wide-margin winner White Fusion (BSP 13.0) at Catterick yesterday. I can’t hope to match that, but there are a couple of races at Ayr which provide opportunities from a betting perspective.

The name of Crawford has been synonymous with baking in Scotland for 200 years, but it may be the Co.Antrim-based Crawford family who take home a large share of the crumbs today. The operation headed up by licence holder Stuart really is a family affair, as he is ably assisted not only by brother Steven, who rides many of the yard’s runners, but also by siblings Ben and Ross at their base near Larne. The Crawford boys have made a speciality of plundering bumpers in Scotland and the north of England, landing 14 wins from just 46 runners in that sphere in the last 5 seasons, with a further 16 being placed. A reminder of the potency of their bumper operation was served when Legacy Gold scored under a penalty at Catterick yesterday. Further success awaits in the closing race at Ayr today, as Fine Rightly (17:00) bids to follow up an impressive C&D success on his debut last month. On that occasion, the son of Alflora stayed on too strongly for Jim Goldie’s Caledonia to win with a bit up his sleeve. Caledonia did little to dent the fine impression created when finishing a creditable third in the listed bumper at Newbury on Saturday won by Oscar Rock. Ballyben, a further 11 lengths back in third, was another who had scored on debut, and caught the eye when placed on his hurdles debut at Newcastle recently, adding further solidity to the form. Fine Rightly will get plenty of assistance from the saddle, with Steven holding the Fegentri amateur riders’ world title for both Flat and jumps racing. He rode The Cool Guy to win the Grade 2 Aintree bumper in 2005, and also enjoyed big-race success in the Irish Cambridgeshire as an apprentice for Pat Flynn back in the 90’s and is as astute a rider in this sphere as any, adopting tactics to suit his mount, rather than his ego.  Both Lucinda Russell and David Pipe do well in similar races, and their representatives, Island Confusion and Hidden Discounts, merit respect, but the selection looks a cut above the average winner of such events, and can withhold all challenges.  

The Crawford have more family business in the 21f novice chase at 15:25, as Fine Rightly’s half-sister Aibrean returns from an absence to make her debut over the larger obstacles. This former point winner showed near-useful form over hurdles, winning a competitive handicap here before running respectably behind Dynaste in a valuable fixed-brush affair at Haydock in November 2011. Not seen since, it would be easy to assume that she’ll need this run, but the trainer was at pains to book Tony McCoy for the ride, only for the champ to be claimed for likely warm favourite Tap Night. Jason Maguire is an able substitute, and while Tap Night will be hard to beat, it was notable how easy Barry Geraghty was on the horse when running below market expectations at Musselburgh last time, and punters backing McCoy are painfully aware that “never-say-die-Tony” has too often looked like “never-say-go-Tony” on his employer’s Festival-bound runners in recent weeks, making Lucinda Russell’s charge an unappealing bet with his handicap mark still in the balance. The Tracey Shuffle is the only other runner to consider, and is worthy of the utmost respect, but an absence since overjumping on his chase bow at Perth (ostensibly well backed, but that support was in the face of an alarming drift on pre-race favourite Carlito Brigante) is a niggling concern. All in all, Aibrean looks worth chancing at the odds.

Recommended Bets:

Back Fine Rightly  in the 17:00 Ayr @ [2.78]  (NAP)

Back Aibrean in the 15:25 Ayr @ [6.0] (NB)


Sunday 10 February 2013

Clouds Can Provide Silver Lining


Heavy rain has put today’s sole jumps meeting in jeopardy, but every cloud has a silver lining they say, and with Exeter passing its second inspection at 10AM, the way is paved for Oliver Sherwood to have a profitable time of things. Star of the stable is the handsome Puffin Billy, who ought to get the better of what looks a straight march with Tolworth Hurdle winner Melodic Rendezvous, although that is a tight race to call strictly on the figures, and Puffin Billy makes scant betting appeal at 4/6. Rouge Et Blanc is another from the yard to come here at the top of his game, and will take the beating if over the exertions which saw him score at Huntingdon in mid-week, but the best bet is Many Clouds, who lines up in the opening novice hurdle at 14:00. Of 3 last-time-out winners, Just A Par is respected most, but the selection achieved more when finishing a good second under a penalty at Wetherby last time, and would have finished much closer but for conceding a big lead to eventual winner Up And Go. At level weights with his main rivals today, and with waiting tactics likely to prove no stumbling block at this stiff track, Many Clouds can get back to winning ways.

Kim Bailey has never made any bones about the regard in which he’s held Harry Topper (15:00), and the son of Sir Harry Lewis is a short price to win a competitive graduation chase today. It’s worth looking at the prices he’s traded in running when winning, though, and highs of 100 and 1,000 show that it’s his tenacity which has won him races rather than sheer class. His best effort over hurdles also saw him stay on from an impossible position, and he’s recommended as a pre-race lay at odds of 2.2. Those taking the chance on laying him may want to back him back at bigger odds in running to guarantee a profit (he’s yet to run in a race where he hasn’t hit significantly bigger in the run), but there is enough opposition in today’s field for a straight lay to be justified.

Recommended Bets:

Back Many Clouds in the 14:00 Exeter @ [3.2]  (NAP)

Lay Harry Topper in the 15:00 Exeter @ [2.20] (NB)




Friday 8 February 2013

Battle of The Handicappers


Don McCain rarely goes without a winner when sending horses on the short trip to Bangor, a course which was favoured by his legendary father before him, and it will be a surprise if he has to wait long to add to the burgeoning list of McCain family winners at the charming Welsh track. The opening contest at 13:30 sees him saddle Blackwater King in a race where the respective handicappers at Timeform and the BHA take wildly differing views.  The BHA assessor was so impressed by Golden Hoof’s defeat of Lord Protector and Beckhani at Sandown in December, that he awarded the Oscar gelding a lofty mark of 135, and when he contested the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle over the same C&D last time, he was the highest rated horse in the contest. Timeform were less impressed by the Sandown win, noting that the race was run at no more than a crawl, and that Golden Hoof merely had too much toe for a couple of plodding stayers. Subsequent results suggest the truth is closer to the latter analysis, with Golden Hoof readily outclassed in the Tolworth, and his earlier victims not doing a great deal to boost the form subsequently. Golden Hoof has been dropped 5 lb, but is still considered to be almost a stone superior to McCain’s runner by the BHA, which looks at odds with the evidence of the racecourse to date, as Blackwater King was an excellent second to Renoyr in a handicap at Doncaster last time, and the winner has run well in a better race at Wetherby in recent days. Timeform, in fact, reckon that far from being inferior to his chief rival, Blackwater King is actually a better horse to the tune of 8 lbs, and yet is receiving weight from Golden Hoof, who has a double penalty to carry. I do have a slight concern about the selection’s tendency to race freely, and he didn’t see things out as well as Renoyr having tanked along last time, but I expect him to be too good for the topweight on today’s terms, and he should be the one trading at Evens, and not the other way around. Either way, there is plenty of professional pride to be won and lost, making this one of the most intriguing contests of the whole day.

The 14:35 is another interesting novice hurdle featuring leading hunter My Flora, who has moved to McCain from Sheila Crow for a hurdling campaign, but she was rather disappointing on her first try over the smaller obstacles, and is passed over now. Midnight Appeal is another who has done well as a chaser, and will be popular here given his creditable third in the Grade 2 Bristol Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in December. That contest has lost some of its lustre since, however, with Coneygree losing his unbeaten record and runner-up Aerial running a poor race at Musselburgh last weekend. Dungeel appears the McCain first-string, and is respected, but the one who makes most appeal is the unexposed O’Faolains Boy, who I had the pleasure of seeing in the flesh at Chepstow on Welsh National day. A rangy, chasing type in appearance, he jumped well in a dispute of the lead, and didn’t need to be asked any serious questions to pull away from his rivals in the straight for a comfortable win. He’ll stay 3m on that evidence (bred to do so in any case), and looks open to more than average improvement. Patrick Corbett takes over from A P McCoy, and the partnership look rock solid to my eyes.

Recommended Bets:

Back Blackwater King  in the 13:30 Bangor @ [2.70]  (NAP)

Back O’Faolains Boy in the 14:35 Bangor @ [3.60] (NB)


Wednesday 6 February 2013

Life's A Breeze At Ludlow


Racing over jumps at Carlisle and Ludlow today throws up a few betting opportunities, but arguably none better than Shootin The Breeze in the hunter chase at the Shropshire venue (16:25). The Ray Humphreys-owned gelding has done the rounds in his short career, showing plenty of promise for David Pipe before being transferred by his owner to the yard of Colm Murphy, for whom he took the scalp of the highly-touted Gagewell Flyer when winning a beginners’ chase at Thurles a year ago. He impressed me with his scope that day, and again when a creditable fourth on his handicap bow at Navan in March. It’s easy to forgive a poor run when badly in need of his debut for Jane Western in a better class hunter at Newbury last month, and that should put an edge on him. He’s yet to be tried over 3m, and stamina may seem an issue given his win came over 2m, but he’s quite stoutly bred, being by Alderbrook out of an Old Vic mare. As a lightly-raced 8-y-o, he remains open to improvement over fences, and is worth backing to upset likely favourite Surenaga. Phil Rowley’s gelding had a disappointing campaign last year, but did bounce back to form between the flags when teaming up with Jane Williams and refitted with blinkers in May. His very best form has come on lively ground, though, and he struggled in the mud on his return at Haydock last term.  

At Carlisle, the Pertemps Qualifier (16:05) is arguably the most intriguing contest, and the horse which catches the eye is Jonjo O’Neill’s Shutthefrontdoor. Currently rated 135 by the official handicapper, it could be argued that he won’t want to blow such a potentially lenient mark. A look back at last year’s final of this event at Cheltenham shows that he would have missed the cut, and he really needs to win, or run well in defeat, in order to get the mark he needs to ensure a run. So far, the son of Accordion has been campaigned at around 2m, but he is bred to improve for a longer trip, and while 25f is quite a step up, it’s almost certain that there’s a lot more to come from him. Knockara Beau won this event in 2011, and comes here after an excellent fourth in the Cleeve Hurdle. That shows he’s a threat, but he was allowed to steal a march by the starter at Cheltenham, and is flattered by the bare form of that effort. He faces competition for the lead here from Don McCain’s Corrin Wood, and a contested pace will count against the pair.

Recommended Bets:

Back Shootin The Breeze  in the 16:25 Ludlow @ [8.2]  (NAP)

Back Shutthefrontdoor in the 16:05 Carlisle @ [4.4] (NB)


Monday 4 February 2013

Not Folly To Back Mulholland Mare


Jump racing on goodish ground is something of a novelty of late, but that is the prospect at Doncaster this afternoon when the key race is the listed 32red Hurdle in which Champion Hurdle contenders Darlan and Rock On Ruby clash. The move away from soft ground will suit both, for all Darlan took the Christmas Hurdle last time in gluepot conditions. He’s my idea of the likeliest winner, but that is reflected in a market price shy of even money, so I’ll look elsewhere for the best bet.

The closing handicap hurdle at 16:35 is a very ordinary affair despite the large field, and few can be seriously fancied. The most interesting runner is Jonjo O’Neill’s Mississippi Blues, who makes his handicap debut. Such runners from Jackdaws Castle have a habit of garnering lenient marks before showing much improved form, but anyone looking to back this one would need to ignore his latest outing at Huntingdon when he weakened abruptly before the race took shape in earnest. I’m inclined to look elsewhere, and Fran’s Folly makes plenty of appeal on her best form. She took time to find her feet last season, but ended the campaign with 2 meritorious performances, and was still in with every chance when falling at Wincanton in March. In need of the run when down the field on her return at Fontwell, she will strip fitter now, and will also appreciate the return to a sounder surface. With improvement to come, she looks a sporting bet at current odds.

Vintage Star looks an obvious starting point in the novice chase at 14:25, given his proven ability over fences and he looks the only obvious pace setter in today’s field. On second glance, however, he may struggle to contain Ruben Cotter who makes his chase debut for the in-form Paul Nicholls yard. His point win is a sign that he will outstrip hurdling ability now tackling regulation fences, and the horse he beat that day is none other than Drinmore Chase runner-up Dedigout. Ruben Cotter has the physique to suggest that he will make the grade as a chaser, and he shaped much better than the bare result when mid-field in a competitive handicap hurdle at Cheltenham’s Open meeting in November. In receipt of 7 lbs from Vintage Star, he’s expected to come out on top, and really should be trading as favourite.

Recommended Bets:

Back Fran’s Folly  in the 16:35 Doncaster @ [10.0]  (NAP)

Back Ruben Cotter  in the 14:25 Doncaster @ [3.05] (NB)



Saturday 2 February 2013

Bank On Young's Veteran


Veterans’ chases have become quite a welcome addition to the jumping calendar, with several old stagers allowed a more realistic chance of being competitive against horses of similar ilk, and Sandown stages such an affair on its all-chase card at 15:00. Several of these are sharply in decline, and neither Mad Max nor Gwanako look quite the horses they were when in the first flush of youth. Pigeon Island is another who has tasted glory on the biggest stage, but has had a lot of racing for one of his age, and the one who looks most likely to rediscover his best is Laura Young’s Tail of The Bank, who is lightly raced and is only having his twelfth outing over obstacles today. He was a promising novice in 2010/11, when runner-up in the valuable Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury, and has hinted that all his old ability remains in 2 runs this term. At Chepstow last time, he made a threatening move on the turn for home before a residual lack of fitness told, and a drop of 4 lbs for that run looks quite generous in the circumstances. He does need to prove that he can handle a right-handed track, as all his runs have come anti-clockwise, but that’s a risk worth taking for a horse who may, rather strangely for a race like this, still have his best days ahead of him.

In the following contest, it’s easy to give chances to most of the field, but the more I look at the race, the more I’m inclined to believe that Mister Hyde remains on a lenient mark despite taking what looked a harsh 13-lb rise for winning at Kempton last time. He proved on that occasion that he truly stays 3m (had been a weak finisher in the past), and I was particularly taken with how easily he seemed to jump out of very deep ground there. Condition will again place a premium on accurate jumping, and in that regard, Mister Hyde looks solid – more so than Summery Justice, who would be my idea of the fly in the ointment, but can still make the occasional bad error. Brackloon High had no excuses behind the selection at Christmas, but has paid him a handsome compliment by winning over the same C&D next time, and that form was further boosted when Politeo, a place in front of Noel Chance’s charge at Kempton, was successful at Wincanton during the week.  If those form lines can be believed, then Mister Hyde is still a step ahead of the assessor. Let’s hope so.

Recommended Bets:

Back Tail of The Bank in the 15:00 Sandown @ [5.6]  (NAP)

Back Mister Hyde  in the 15:35 Sandown @ [5.9] (NB)