On a difficult day for tipping, with too many of the interesting races at Newbury and Doncaster containing unknown quantities, the bet of the day goes in a handicap full of exposed performers at Wolverhampton. Smalljohn has no secrets from either punters or the handicapper, but he's a straightforward course specialist who wears his heart on his sleeve and will attempt to make all in the 18:25 for an eighth win at Dunstall Park. The 7-y-o hasn't been at his very best in three runs over track and trip this autumn, but has been edging back to form incrementally, and has been given a chance by the assessor.
On his latest start, he was hassled for the lead before keeping on at the one pace behind Jay Bee Blue, and a repeat of that effort on the figures would put him in the firing line. His best efforts last year suggest that he's still able to taken another step forward, and his last 2 wins here came from higher marks. Smalljohn would prefer an uncontested lead, but his strength has always been an ability to quicken the pace at halfway, and the onus is on Graham Lee to ration out his speed more effectively than he's been able to of late. There are plenty of potential spoilers, but a double figure price about this well-handicapped sort is too good to ignore.
Another horse who has fallen back to a winning mark is Shawkantango (18:55) who is now 1 lb lower than when winning over this course and distance last spring. He's spent most of this year in the doldrums, but hinted at a revival when fifth in a big field at Nottingham early this month. He's a lazy sort, which is usually the death knell of a sprinter, but tonight's race looks set to be a burn-up, and the current surface at Wolverhampton has been favouring closers. With a wide draw a positive given his quirks, Shawkantango may well benefit from a pace collapse, and he's more than capable of a whirlwind finish when on song. Best as an in-running trade given those proclivities (he's traded twice his pre-race price in the run for both C&D wins), he still makes plenty of appeal at current odds.
Recommendations:
Both at Wolverhampton
Back Smalljohn @ [10.0] in the 18:25 (NAP)
Back Shawkantango @ [11.5] in the 18:55
Friday 29 November 2013
Monday 25 November 2013
Tarvini Too Big at Kempton
Tony McCoy has rarely been out of the news in recent weeks, and I won't rehash his achievements, but his reputation for galvanising horses which other jockeys cannot motivate is part of the McCoy myth. That's certainly true taken as a whole, but every rider has their bete noir, those beasts who go perfectly well for the stable conditional, but curl up when the yard's number one gets on board, a situation often made more embarrassing as that tends to be when the money is down. Surely no animal would have the temerity to embarrass McCoy so? Step forward Tarvini.
The last four occasions on which the champ has had the misfortune to ride Tarvini, he's looked thoroughly recalcitrant, recording a trio of in-running squiggles. Normally such behavious would signal that the runner in question is a lost cause, but Tarvini doesn't comply to the norm. He's spent much of the last couple of seasons giving experience to Jonjo O'Neill's greenest claimers, and has won for both Maurice Linehan (then unheard of, but soon much heralded), and James Huxham already. He went very close to giving young Patrick Cowley a first winner under Rules on his debut ride at Exeter last time, and he clearly saves his best for the boys.
The fact that McCoy rides Dreamsoftheatre is something of a smokescreen here - that one also runs for the McManus/O'Neill axis, but it seems McCoy would rather ride one of the clydesdales which were seen in action at that track yesterday than he would throw his leg over Tarvini again. Dreamsoftheatre's chances need to be assessed on their own merits, but the fact is that his presence in the field has caused the price on Tarvini to be artificially inflated, and there is no doubt that he represents the value in the race at this stage.
The concluding handicap hurdle is another cracker, but complicated by the fact that the trio who head the market all have absences to overcome. Poet was talked of a Cheltenham candidate after winning on debut, but that form didn't work out, and he has always needed very soft ground to be seen to best effect. Ranjaan lost his way quite badly early this year, but may well bounce back fresh, particularly with the handicapper cutting him some slack. Fourth Estate is the darkest one of all, having looked a very good prospect in bumpers, but he has the longest absence to overcome, with no run since April 2012.
Any of that trio could win if stepping up to the mark, but there is one who appeals at much bigger odds, and that is Taaresh, who was an impressive winner at Worcester in the summer, and has had excuses since. That Worcester contest has proven very solid form, and I don't think Taaresh is at all badly handicapped, for all there's a suspicion he needs to her his hooves rattle, and even Kempton's good ground may be dead enough for him. That's a definite concern, but at odds of 33/1 and bigger, it's a chance well worth taking. Should the going prove to be on the easy side, then the writing will be on the wall, but Kevin Morgan's charge remains one for the notebooks when the sun finally comes out.
Recommendations:
Both at Kempton
Back Tarvini @ [11.5] in the 14:40 (NAP)
Back Taaresh @ [46.0] in the 15:40 (NB)
The last four occasions on which the champ has had the misfortune to ride Tarvini, he's looked thoroughly recalcitrant, recording a trio of in-running squiggles. Normally such behavious would signal that the runner in question is a lost cause, but Tarvini doesn't comply to the norm. He's spent much of the last couple of seasons giving experience to Jonjo O'Neill's greenest claimers, and has won for both Maurice Linehan (then unheard of, but soon much heralded), and James Huxham already. He went very close to giving young Patrick Cowley a first winner under Rules on his debut ride at Exeter last time, and he clearly saves his best for the boys.
The fact that McCoy rides Dreamsoftheatre is something of a smokescreen here - that one also runs for the McManus/O'Neill axis, but it seems McCoy would rather ride one of the clydesdales which were seen in action at that track yesterday than he would throw his leg over Tarvini again. Dreamsoftheatre's chances need to be assessed on their own merits, but the fact is that his presence in the field has caused the price on Tarvini to be artificially inflated, and there is no doubt that he represents the value in the race at this stage.
The concluding handicap hurdle is another cracker, but complicated by the fact that the trio who head the market all have absences to overcome. Poet was talked of a Cheltenham candidate after winning on debut, but that form didn't work out, and he has always needed very soft ground to be seen to best effect. Ranjaan lost his way quite badly early this year, but may well bounce back fresh, particularly with the handicapper cutting him some slack. Fourth Estate is the darkest one of all, having looked a very good prospect in bumpers, but he has the longest absence to overcome, with no run since April 2012.
Any of that trio could win if stepping up to the mark, but there is one who appeals at much bigger odds, and that is Taaresh, who was an impressive winner at Worcester in the summer, and has had excuses since. That Worcester contest has proven very solid form, and I don't think Taaresh is at all badly handicapped, for all there's a suspicion he needs to her his hooves rattle, and even Kempton's good ground may be dead enough for him. That's a definite concern, but at odds of 33/1 and bigger, it's a chance well worth taking. Should the going prove to be on the easy side, then the writing will be on the wall, but Kevin Morgan's charge remains one for the notebooks when the sun finally comes out.
Recommendations:
Both at Kempton
Back Tarvini @ [11.5] in the 14:40 (NAP)
Back Taaresh @ [46.0] in the 15:40 (NB)
Sunday 24 November 2013
Tizzard Team Can Strike Gold Again
It always pains me to abandon an old favourite, and I feel slightly guilty to be fielding against the gallant Qianshan Leader at Exeter today, given how well Emma Lavelle's charge ran in the face of what turned out to be a daunting task at the track last month (damn you Standing Ovation, damn you twice!), but logic dictates that he will again have his work cut out when lumping top weight in the 14:35. Not only has he been shunted up the weights again, but he looks sure to be pestered for the lead he needs, with market rivals Trafalgar and Barlow having also shown their best form under forcing tactics. The likelihood of a three-way-go for early dominance means that this race will be set up for a finisher, and one who fits the bill is Ultragold, an ex-French youngster who has been noted learning the ropes in a couple of starts since joining Colin Tizzard in the summer.
At Cheltenham's Showcase meeting, Ultragold did a very good impression of being overpriced, weakening quickly from the top of the hill. While that was an inauspicious start, he showed much more positive signs in an eventful novice handicap chase at Wincanton last time. He travelled as well as anything in that race until both he and Polisky were sideswiped by the fall of Hot Whiskey. He still looked like taking a major hand until slipping on the approach to the final turn (not picked up either in commentary or by the formbook, although that's understandable given how many other incidents there were). Looked after from that point, he managed a very respectable fourth, and looks capable of better.
That race has thrown up its share of winners, and that tally should have been added to when Polisky threw away certain victory at Ascot on Saturday. That augurs well for Ultragold's future prospects, as does the decision of the official handicapper to drop him a couple of pounds. He's one to keep on side this season, and he can prove the point by scoring against seasoned handicappers today.
The Irish card at Navan is an absolute belter, and there are a pair that I fancy to run well. In the two-mile handicap hurdle, I though Court Frontier was interesting. The Conor O'Dwyer-trained gelding showed fairly useful form in bumpers, and now goes handicapping after a few quiet runs over timber. He caught the eye at Cork a week ago when finishing fourth to the promising Real Steel, and was the only one to make any significant inroads from off the pace that day. This comes soon enough after what was a bit of a slog, but this is a fairly modest affair, and he appeals as being on a potentially lenient mark.
In the concluding bumper, it's hard to understand why Shesafoxylady is favourite, as Willie Mullins' mare was beaten by Elsie at Punchestown last time, only to get the verdict in the stewards room. That looked the correct decision at the time, but shows there's little between the pair, and Elsie now has a swing in the weights. There are plenty of other dangers, with the third home that day, Toe The Line, less exposed than the pair who beat her, and looking ill-suited by the modest gallop there. I'm inclined to take the current favourite on in the place market, but will settle instead for backing the filly with the best form. That filly is Princess Leya, who showed abundant promise on debut before absolutely annihilating a modest field at Cork last time. She didn't achieve much on the clock dues to a very modest early pace, but that simply makes the way she sauntered to an eighteen-length win all the more impressive, and she looks a cut above today's rivals if that effort is taken at face value.
Recommendations:
Back Ultragold @ [8.4] in the 14:35 Exeter (NAP)
Back Court Frontier @ [8.0] in the 12:55 Navan
Back Princess Leya @ [3.75] in the 15:25 Navan (NB)
At Cheltenham's Showcase meeting, Ultragold did a very good impression of being overpriced, weakening quickly from the top of the hill. While that was an inauspicious start, he showed much more positive signs in an eventful novice handicap chase at Wincanton last time. He travelled as well as anything in that race until both he and Polisky were sideswiped by the fall of Hot Whiskey. He still looked like taking a major hand until slipping on the approach to the final turn (not picked up either in commentary or by the formbook, although that's understandable given how many other incidents there were). Looked after from that point, he managed a very respectable fourth, and looks capable of better.
That race has thrown up its share of winners, and that tally should have been added to when Polisky threw away certain victory at Ascot on Saturday. That augurs well for Ultragold's future prospects, as does the decision of the official handicapper to drop him a couple of pounds. He's one to keep on side this season, and he can prove the point by scoring against seasoned handicappers today.
The Irish card at Navan is an absolute belter, and there are a pair that I fancy to run well. In the two-mile handicap hurdle, I though Court Frontier was interesting. The Conor O'Dwyer-trained gelding showed fairly useful form in bumpers, and now goes handicapping after a few quiet runs over timber. He caught the eye at Cork a week ago when finishing fourth to the promising Real Steel, and was the only one to make any significant inroads from off the pace that day. This comes soon enough after what was a bit of a slog, but this is a fairly modest affair, and he appeals as being on a potentially lenient mark.
In the concluding bumper, it's hard to understand why Shesafoxylady is favourite, as Willie Mullins' mare was beaten by Elsie at Punchestown last time, only to get the verdict in the stewards room. That looked the correct decision at the time, but shows there's little between the pair, and Elsie now has a swing in the weights. There are plenty of other dangers, with the third home that day, Toe The Line, less exposed than the pair who beat her, and looking ill-suited by the modest gallop there. I'm inclined to take the current favourite on in the place market, but will settle instead for backing the filly with the best form. That filly is Princess Leya, who showed abundant promise on debut before absolutely annihilating a modest field at Cork last time. She didn't achieve much on the clock dues to a very modest early pace, but that simply makes the way she sauntered to an eighteen-length win all the more impressive, and she looks a cut above today's rivals if that effort is taken at face value.
Recommendations:
Back Ultragold @ [8.4] in the 14:35 Exeter (NAP)
Back Court Frontier @ [8.0] in the 12:55 Navan
Back Princess Leya @ [3.75] in the 15:25 Navan (NB)
Friday 22 November 2013
Get It Right With Sybarite
The dictionary defines a sybarite as "one devoted to pleasure or luxury" after the hedonistic tendencies of the inhabitants of the wealthy city of that name in Magna Graecia. Given the proclivities of those involved in ownership, it's no surprise that the name has been used mischievously over the years by those looking for suitable racehorse names. It's debatable whether the ultra-respectable Raymond Mould would fit into that category, but it's in his famous green-and-white silks that this Sybarite runs, and he can kick off a second spell with Nigel Twiston-Davies by winning the opening maiden hurdle at Ascot.
Sybarite has the looks to go with his name, tall, almost black, and a most fluid mover, and it's no great surprise to be reminded that he was bought by renowned bloodstock agent David Minton as a part of a "job lot" with Sprinter Sacre. At a recent media event organised by Cheltenham racecourse, more eyes swivelled his way than were trained on nascent superstar The New One, or former Gold Cup hero Imperial Commander. He made a bright start for the yard in bumpers, winning at Uttoxeter and splitting Dark Lover and Teaforthree at Cheltenham, but he clearly lacked the strength to fulfil his potential at that stage, and very much had the look of a gawky schoolboy. In truth, his ambitious connections overfaced him early in his career when he wasn't mentally or physically ready, and he appeared on a collision course with a double squiggle when last sighted under Rules. Faced with the option of getting rid or mending, Mould made the eminently sensible decision to send him to the yard of Phil Rowley to try his hand at pointing.
The transformation was almost immediate, and Sybarite completed an unbeaten run by winning the prestigious Lady Dudley Cup at Chaddesley Corbett in April. His record between the flags proves most of all that his appetite for racing has been restored, and it doesn't pay to dwell on how that form would translate back to hurdles. It would be a surprise if he isn't as good as ever given how he appears to have thrived physically, and the level of form he showed as a novice over hurdles in 2010/11 would make him hard to beat.
In the handicap chase at 14:40, Greywell Boy can get back to winning ways now campaigned at what looks his ideal trip. The Fair Mix gelding has gained two wins and a pair of placings from just four starts in handicap chases, all around the minimum trip when ridden by today's pilot, David Bass. On each occasion he's been tapped for toe before staying on strongly, and has long appealed as the sort to improve significantly when stepping up in trip. He gets that opportunity today, and can improve past a field of exposed rivals. Niceonefrankie looks the one for forecast punters, but he's too consistent for his own good, and probably needs to drop a couple of pounds if he's to get his head in front again, admitting that conditions are very much in his favour today.
Recommendations:
Both at Ascot
Back Sybarite @ [4.2] in the 13.00 (NAP)
Back Greywell Boy @ [4.2] (NB)
Sybarite has the looks to go with his name, tall, almost black, and a most fluid mover, and it's no great surprise to be reminded that he was bought by renowned bloodstock agent David Minton as a part of a "job lot" with Sprinter Sacre. At a recent media event organised by Cheltenham racecourse, more eyes swivelled his way than were trained on nascent superstar The New One, or former Gold Cup hero Imperial Commander. He made a bright start for the yard in bumpers, winning at Uttoxeter and splitting Dark Lover and Teaforthree at Cheltenham, but he clearly lacked the strength to fulfil his potential at that stage, and very much had the look of a gawky schoolboy. In truth, his ambitious connections overfaced him early in his career when he wasn't mentally or physically ready, and he appeared on a collision course with a double squiggle when last sighted under Rules. Faced with the option of getting rid or mending, Mould made the eminently sensible decision to send him to the yard of Phil Rowley to try his hand at pointing.
The transformation was almost immediate, and Sybarite completed an unbeaten run by winning the prestigious Lady Dudley Cup at Chaddesley Corbett in April. His record between the flags proves most of all that his appetite for racing has been restored, and it doesn't pay to dwell on how that form would translate back to hurdles. It would be a surprise if he isn't as good as ever given how he appears to have thrived physically, and the level of form he showed as a novice over hurdles in 2010/11 would make him hard to beat.
In the handicap chase at 14:40, Greywell Boy can get back to winning ways now campaigned at what looks his ideal trip. The Fair Mix gelding has gained two wins and a pair of placings from just four starts in handicap chases, all around the minimum trip when ridden by today's pilot, David Bass. On each occasion he's been tapped for toe before staying on strongly, and has long appealed as the sort to improve significantly when stepping up in trip. He gets that opportunity today, and can improve past a field of exposed rivals. Niceonefrankie looks the one for forecast punters, but he's too consistent for his own good, and probably needs to drop a couple of pounds if he's to get his head in front again, admitting that conditions are very much in his favour today.
Recommendations:
Both at Ascot
Back Sybarite @ [4.2] in the 13.00 (NAP)
Back Greywell Boy @ [4.2] (NB)
Saturday 16 November 2013
All Aboard The Rajdhani Express
There are few finer days in the winter jumps calendar than the Saturday of Cheltenham's Open Meeting, and today's card doesn't disappoint, with the big race as intriguing as ever, and hopefully the meeting will be kind in terms of punting, too.
The Murphy Group Handicap Chase at 13:50 sees a rematch between last year’s first and second Monbeg Dude and Bradley, and the pair are both shortlisted, with Michael Scudamore’s Welsh National winner having caught the eye on his return over hurdles at the Showcase, and the latter doing similar over an inadequate trip at the same meeting. Bradley is out of the handicap, but is still lower in the weights than he was a year ago, so that’s of less concern than it might be. Monbeg Dude’s Achilles heel remains his somewhat chancy jumping, but he’s young enough to improve further this term, and isn’t overburdened by any means. The pair may find themselves vulnerable to last year’s novices, however, who by definition retain the most scope for progress.
Godsmejudge is also a National winner, with Alan King’s 7-y-o landing the Scottish version when last seen, and he ought to make a bigger splash in his second season, a comment which applies in spades to Goulanes, who switched to fences only after a hurdles win at the Open meeting last year. The one who makes most appeal, however is Tour des Champs, who didn’t hit the same heights as the aforementioned pair, but that was largely due to a tendency to belt a couple, and he’s expected to leave last season’s efforts behind as he gains fluency. A good second to Friday's X-Country winner Balthazar King last month was promising in that regard, as was the way he rallied to finish clear of the others. Fourth to Godsmejudge at Ayr, he now meets that rival on some 10 lb better terms. The handicapper has been kind, and that generosity should be repaid today.
I've nailed my colours to the mast in the Paddy Power long ago, and my main hope has always been Rajdhani Express, who improved throughout last term, and jumped impeccably when winning here and at Ayr in the spring. His victory under top weight in the Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap at the Festival was as impressive as any other novice at the meeting, but has been overshadowed because it was "only" a handicap, and he looks capable of defying another hike in the weights. Whether Sam Waley-Cohen's aerodynamic silks make the difference is unlikely, but they certainly show that the amateur is taking this very seriously indeed, and this race has been the plan for some months.
The market has been active for a while, and the obvious contenders have risen to the fore of the betting, with few exceptions. Ballynagour is the buzz horse, but he does break blood vessels, and has yet to show his form away from testing ground, so he's not one to go overboard about, while John's Spirit is still capable of the odd blunder, and was a dramatic shortener in the opening betting salvos, so I'd expect his price to ease markedly today. Champion Court looked in magnificent shape at Martin Keighley's the other day, and would be my idea of a placepot banker, while I thought about putting up Gift of Dgab as a saver, as he's the one horse I've backed at big odds, but his price has tumbled to about 25/1, which is only a fraction of what he was trading on Thursday morning. I'll still be shouting him home, however.
Recommendations:
Both at Cheltenham
Back Tour des Champs @ [9.0] in the 13:50 (NB)
Back Rajdhani Express @ [14.0] in the 14:30 (NAP)
The Murphy Group Handicap Chase at 13:50 sees a rematch between last year’s first and second Monbeg Dude and Bradley, and the pair are both shortlisted, with Michael Scudamore’s Welsh National winner having caught the eye on his return over hurdles at the Showcase, and the latter doing similar over an inadequate trip at the same meeting. Bradley is out of the handicap, but is still lower in the weights than he was a year ago, so that’s of less concern than it might be. Monbeg Dude’s Achilles heel remains his somewhat chancy jumping, but he’s young enough to improve further this term, and isn’t overburdened by any means. The pair may find themselves vulnerable to last year’s novices, however, who by definition retain the most scope for progress.
Godsmejudge is also a National winner, with Alan King’s 7-y-o landing the Scottish version when last seen, and he ought to make a bigger splash in his second season, a comment which applies in spades to Goulanes, who switched to fences only after a hurdles win at the Open meeting last year. The one who makes most appeal, however is Tour des Champs, who didn’t hit the same heights as the aforementioned pair, but that was largely due to a tendency to belt a couple, and he’s expected to leave last season’s efforts behind as he gains fluency. A good second to Friday's X-Country winner Balthazar King last month was promising in that regard, as was the way he rallied to finish clear of the others. Fourth to Godsmejudge at Ayr, he now meets that rival on some 10 lb better terms. The handicapper has been kind, and that generosity should be repaid today.
I've nailed my colours to the mast in the Paddy Power long ago, and my main hope has always been Rajdhani Express, who improved throughout last term, and jumped impeccably when winning here and at Ayr in the spring. His victory under top weight in the Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap at the Festival was as impressive as any other novice at the meeting, but has been overshadowed because it was "only" a handicap, and he looks capable of defying another hike in the weights. Whether Sam Waley-Cohen's aerodynamic silks make the difference is unlikely, but they certainly show that the amateur is taking this very seriously indeed, and this race has been the plan for some months.
The market has been active for a while, and the obvious contenders have risen to the fore of the betting, with few exceptions. Ballynagour is the buzz horse, but he does break blood vessels, and has yet to show his form away from testing ground, so he's not one to go overboard about, while John's Spirit is still capable of the odd blunder, and was a dramatic shortener in the opening betting salvos, so I'd expect his price to ease markedly today. Champion Court looked in magnificent shape at Martin Keighley's the other day, and would be my idea of a placepot banker, while I thought about putting up Gift of Dgab as a saver, as he's the one horse I've backed at big odds, but his price has tumbled to about 25/1, which is only a fraction of what he was trading on Thursday morning. I'll still be shouting him home, however.
Recommendations:
Both at Cheltenham
Back Tour des Champs @ [9.0] in the 13:50 (NB)
Back Rajdhani Express @ [14.0] in the 14:30 (NAP)
Monday 11 November 2013
Diplomatic Can Win Without Incident
In the last week, there has been a lot of discussion of jockeys, particularly with Tony McCoy's recent milestone, but also with Richard Hughes crowned as champion jockey, Jason Hart getting the apprentice title, and Oisin Murphy again looking a champion in waiting with another nerveless ride on Levitate. In that pantheon, all-weather champion is rather overlooked, but the reigning champ, Adam Kirby, looks set to regain that title, and can feather the nest of punters in the process, given how superbly he has ridden the AW tracks in the last couple of years.
Kirby has been nigh-on unstoppable of late, and is undoubtedly the most tactically astute rider on the winter circuit. His strike rate in all-aged handicaps this AW season is a stunning 50%, and he can improve that record when riding the thriving Diplomatic in Kempton's 15:20 today. Put simply, this is a much less competitive race than the numbers imply, and Diplomatic arrives in the form of his life, and seeking a C&D hat-trick.
His win over Havelovewilltravel here last month was franked when the runner-up scored next time, and he looked better than ever when weaving through to beat Lady Sylvia last time, a remarkable performance, as he'd conceded many lengths at the start when dropped in from a poor draw. He's better berthed today, and should have no trouble shrugging off a 3 lb rise in a similar class contest. Of his rivals, Wilfred Pickles has a woeful strike-rate in handicaps (1-27), while Whinging Willie has produced his best efforts over a couple of furlongs further. Catch The Cider is unexposed, and may be the one to give the selection most to do, but he's short enough in the betting based on actual achievement, for all he caught the eye finishing well from a poor position last time.
At Carlisle, it's worth forgiving Buddy Bolero a rare jumping lapse when he lines up in the graduation chase at 14:25. He was backed into favouritism for the competitive United House Gold Cup at Ascot on his return only to capsize at the third. Normally a sound jumper, he'll find the smaller field easier to cope with, and remains unexposed as a chaser. Cappa Bleu was a distant second in this race last year, and will again be brought along steadily en route to another crack at the Grand National, so the main danger is likely to be the novice Imperial Vic, who is both a sound jumper and a battler to boot. He'll not let David Pipe's charge have things easy, but the selection has the requisite class to concede weight, and ought to be clear favourite.
The handicap chase at 15:30 is a modest affair, with the majority having questions to answer. That comment applies to topweight Zaru, who has fallen on his last two starts, but he would have won by a long way on the first occasion, and was found to have burst a blood vessel when odds on next time. Such horses are almost always best caught fresh, and with the James Ewart stable in fine form, Zaru is expected to defy his impost against some poor opponents.
Tutchec heads the market, but his win in a similar C&D event last time owed much to a well-executed ride from Tony McCoy, and a 9 lb rise for that success looks harsh on balance, particularly with the champ unavailable now.
Recommendatiions:
Back Diplomatic @ [3.35] in the 15:20 Kempton (NAP)
Back Buddy Bolero @ [2.96] in the 14:25 Carlisle (NB)
Back Zaru @ [6.0] in the 15:30 Carlisle
Back Buddy Bolero @ [2.96] in the 14:25 Carlisle (NB)
Back Zaru @ [6.0] in the 15:30 Carlisle
Sunday 10 November 2013
Speed Can Master Ffos Las Rivals
Ffos Las hosts just a modest meeting on Sunday, but Speed Master is just the sort to make a better chaser than a hurdler, and looks to have been given a real chance by the handicapper in the Coolmore National Hunt Sires Novices' Limited Handicap Chase at 15:05. There are plenty of other positives, too, with a long absence offset by his trainer's excellent record with similar types, with Hollow Blue Sky another to have made a winning debut over fences after a long absence recently. Add to that the desire for track supremo Dai Walters to have his venue showcased by his best horses, with Oscar Whisky the most notable example.
From a handicapping perspective, Speed Master looks very well treated, having made the frame in a pair of ultra-competitive handicaps over hurdles in the spring of 2012 off a BHA mark of 126, the first of those being the prestigious EBF Final at Sandown. No doubt the official handicapper has bent the rules by allowing the Twiston-Davies runner into this 0-125 event, and while that single pound in weight may not seem significant, it basically allows the son of King's Theatre to beat up some inferior rivals. The pick of those is Hansupfordetroit, who may well have beaten Sivola de Sivola over three miles here last time but for a late blunder. He stayed on all the way to the line there, and clearly doesn't lack for stamina, but he's likely to be comprehensively done for toe by the selection today.
I've been accused by a regular reader (hi James) of putting the mockers on Emma Lavelle runners here in recent weeks, although I think Standing Ovation can take much of the blame, if I'm being honest. For that reason, I won't be tipping up Gullinbursti at Market Rasen, but I think you get the gist. Instead, the second selection of the day goes to Wily Fox in the closing handicap hurdle at Market Rasen. Not discredited in 3 Flat runs this year, it's a couple of runs over hurdles in the spring which highlight his chance. In February at Taunton, he finished third to Xaarcet and Man of Leisure, with Qalinas behind, and that trio have franked the form in no uncertain terms since, with a hatful of wins between them.
Wily Fox himself did his bit for the form when scoring over C&D next time, and the third and fourth that day were both next-time-out winners. The selection wasn't seen to best effect under a penalty next time, but the collateral form of those earlier efforts suggests he remains on a winning mark, and he bounced back when runner-up to a well handicapped rival on the Flat next time. With the promising Kieron Edgar booked today, he looks a decent bet to add another win to his CV.
Recommendations:
Back Speed Master @ [3.4] in the 15:05 Ffos Las (NAP)
Back Wily Fox @ [5.2] in the 15:50 Market Rasen (NB)
From a handicapping perspective, Speed Master looks very well treated, having made the frame in a pair of ultra-competitive handicaps over hurdles in the spring of 2012 off a BHA mark of 126, the first of those being the prestigious EBF Final at Sandown. No doubt the official handicapper has bent the rules by allowing the Twiston-Davies runner into this 0-125 event, and while that single pound in weight may not seem significant, it basically allows the son of King's Theatre to beat up some inferior rivals. The pick of those is Hansupfordetroit, who may well have beaten Sivola de Sivola over three miles here last time but for a late blunder. He stayed on all the way to the line there, and clearly doesn't lack for stamina, but he's likely to be comprehensively done for toe by the selection today.
I've been accused by a regular reader (hi James) of putting the mockers on Emma Lavelle runners here in recent weeks, although I think Standing Ovation can take much of the blame, if I'm being honest. For that reason, I won't be tipping up Gullinbursti at Market Rasen, but I think you get the gist. Instead, the second selection of the day goes to Wily Fox in the closing handicap hurdle at Market Rasen. Not discredited in 3 Flat runs this year, it's a couple of runs over hurdles in the spring which highlight his chance. In February at Taunton, he finished third to Xaarcet and Man of Leisure, with Qalinas behind, and that trio have franked the form in no uncertain terms since, with a hatful of wins between them.
Wily Fox himself did his bit for the form when scoring over C&D next time, and the third and fourth that day were both next-time-out winners. The selection wasn't seen to best effect under a penalty next time, but the collateral form of those earlier efforts suggests he remains on a winning mark, and he bounced back when runner-up to a well handicapped rival on the Flat next time. With the promising Kieron Edgar booked today, he looks a decent bet to add another win to his CV.
Recommendations:
Back Speed Master @ [3.4] in the 15:05 Ffos Las (NAP)
Back Wily Fox @ [5.2] in the 15:50 Market Rasen (NB)
Friday 8 November 2013
Present a Hexham Gift
Everyone has an idea of which trainers they believe are capable of improving a horse, whether on the Flat or over jumps, but the big success stories often come from unexpected places, such as the meteoric rise of Hunt Ball who had been cast out by at least one renowned judge before scaling unheard of heights for the then-unknown Kieran Burke. On a similar note, one of the most remarkable successes of the past Flat season has been the improvement found by the remarkable Bondi Beach Boy, who was officially rated just 41 when winning at Catterick in May, but ended the campaign with a mark in the 80s after adding another half dozen wins, all in handicap company. Such a transformation used to be the sole preserve of the late David Chapman, but the man responsible for this training feat was the unassuming dual-purpose handler Jim Turner, who has been training for almost thirty years without creating much of a stir.
Turner's record is not one to be sniffed at, however, and while he has always been low on numbers, his strike-rate under both codes in the last year has been remarkable. Not only can he boast a 44% record on the Flat this year, but he's also three from four over fences this jumps campaign, and can improve that record further when Local Present contests the 15:25 at Hexham. The selection was a winner at Fakenham for Brian Ellison, but often promised more than he delivered for that yard, and had become the type to tread warily with. A switch to Turner's Norton-le-Clay yard seems to have done him good, however, and the bold move to drop this often lazy sort to the minimum trip paid immediate dividends when winning over C&D last month.
Local Present remains very well treated on his best form, and while he's never been one to rely on, it's more than possible that this moody character has been sweetened up by the unusual routine at his new yard, and with all of his rivals today arriving on the back of poor runs, he looks much too good to ignore at current odds.
At Musselburgh, there is a growing move behind Population in the two mile handicap hurdle at 14:35, and the drop to this trip on fast ground looks just what this dual bumper winner needs if his career to date is a guide. That said, he didn't convince me with either his hurdling (inclined to back off his obstacles) or his application under pressure when third to Le Reve at Market Rasen in February. His previous second to a hard held My Tent Or Yours at Huntingdon is inclined to flatter him, and he's worth opposing with recent Ascot winner Willow's Saviour.
The latter needs to prove that he can cope with the drop in trip after winning over further at the weekend on debut for Dan Skelton, but the way he tanked through that contest suggested that a faster pace would actually benefit him, and he was able to be eased heavily having had the race wrapped up before the last. Full value for at least twelve lengths there, he looks thrown in under a mandatory penalty, and can gain back-to-back wins for his upwardly mobile handler.
Recommendations:
Back Local Present @ [3.85] in the 15:25 Hexham (NAP)
Back Willow's Saviour @ [4.0] in the 14:35 Musselburgh (NB)
Turner's record is not one to be sniffed at, however, and while he has always been low on numbers, his strike-rate under both codes in the last year has been remarkable. Not only can he boast a 44% record on the Flat this year, but he's also three from four over fences this jumps campaign, and can improve that record further when Local Present contests the 15:25 at Hexham. The selection was a winner at Fakenham for Brian Ellison, but often promised more than he delivered for that yard, and had become the type to tread warily with. A switch to Turner's Norton-le-Clay yard seems to have done him good, however, and the bold move to drop this often lazy sort to the minimum trip paid immediate dividends when winning over C&D last month.
Local Present remains very well treated on his best form, and while he's never been one to rely on, it's more than possible that this moody character has been sweetened up by the unusual routine at his new yard, and with all of his rivals today arriving on the back of poor runs, he looks much too good to ignore at current odds.
At Musselburgh, there is a growing move behind Population in the two mile handicap hurdle at 14:35, and the drop to this trip on fast ground looks just what this dual bumper winner needs if his career to date is a guide. That said, he didn't convince me with either his hurdling (inclined to back off his obstacles) or his application under pressure when third to Le Reve at Market Rasen in February. His previous second to a hard held My Tent Or Yours at Huntingdon is inclined to flatter him, and he's worth opposing with recent Ascot winner Willow's Saviour.
The latter needs to prove that he can cope with the drop in trip after winning over further at the weekend on debut for Dan Skelton, but the way he tanked through that contest suggested that a faster pace would actually benefit him, and he was able to be eased heavily having had the race wrapped up before the last. Full value for at least twelve lengths there, he looks thrown in under a mandatory penalty, and can gain back-to-back wins for his upwardly mobile handler.
Recommendations:
Back Local Present @ [3.85] in the 15:25 Hexham (NAP)
Back Willow's Saviour @ [4.0] in the 14:35 Musselburgh (NB)
Thursday 7 November 2013
Croi The Real Star At Towcester
Racecourse attendances suffer in midweek as a rule, but that won't be evident if you're watching pictures at Towcester today, where the crowd will resemble that at a major political rally. As if free entry isn't enough of a draw (other tracks seem slow to catch on to the success of this scheme), the possibility of witnessing history, as a certain jockey attempts to reach a certain number of career successes, seals the deal.
The continued focus of said jockey's achievements is a PR man's dream, but is threatening to become a little taxing for true fans of the sport, for whom the horses are at least as important as the men who sit astride them. So, without further ado, let's talk about what really matters, the Haygain Hay Steamers Clean Healthy Forage Mares' Handicap Hurdle....
The opening contest looks very tricky at first glance, with a big field of modest handicap hurdlers to choose from, but the testing conditions will soon sort the wheat from the chaff, and there are only a handful who make any real appeal on recent evidence. Je T'aime isn't living up to her excellent pedigree (half-sister J'y Vole was third in the 2010 Ryanair), and hails from a misfiring yard, while Niki Royal has been disappointing since winning her maiden here in January, and isn't certain to take to a first-time visor. Night of Passion is another one trying headgear for the first time, and has a bit to prove despite attracting support. Lansdowne Princess has also attracted support having joined the well-regarded Johnny Farrelly, but while such a move is noteworthy with horses who have lost their way, this 11-y-o was actually running well over fences for Gerald Ham when last seen, and isn't such an obvious improver, particularly with her hurdles profile a patchy one.
The one who stands out from the crown is Realta Mo Croi ("star of my heart" in Irish), who is totally unexposed, and showed much improved form when winning a Fontwell handicap in June from Band of Thunder and Franklino. She absolutely spreadeagled her field there, winning in a time which was more than four seconds quicker than that achieved by Mare Deja La in the second division of the same contest. The form looked solid at the time, but if there were any doubt, it was dispelled by wins for the second and third on their next outings. The handicapper has raised Realta Mo Croi a massive 21 lb for that success, but the bottom line is that she was simply on a wholly inappropriate mark starting out in handicaps, and looks up to defying her new mark today.
It takes something of a leap of faith to back Henry Hurst in the handicap chase at 13:40, with the Toby Balding-owned son of Bob's Return having failed to complete on all 3 of his starts over fences last season. That tells only half the story, however, as he was shaping really well when falling behind the useful Molotof at Taunton on his chase debut, and had no chance against Unioniste and Hadrian's Approach at Newbury next time. Another fall there on his handicap bow saw connections draw stumps and switch him back to hurdles. He's been running well in that sphere of late, making the frame on his last 4 starts, and returns to chasing from a very workable mark. His jumping is clearly a concern, but he's certainly got the physique to take to the bigger obstacles, and the drop in class should mean that he's not taken off his feet early, as he was a couple of times last term. He seems not to stay three miles, so hopefully today's trip will be within his compass, albeit with the stiff track a slight concern.
Recommendations:
Both at Towcester
Back Realta Mo Croi @ [6.6] in the 13:10 (NAP)
Back Henry Hurst @ [16.0] in the 13:40 (NB)
The continued focus of said jockey's achievements is a PR man's dream, but is threatening to become a little taxing for true fans of the sport, for whom the horses are at least as important as the men who sit astride them. So, without further ado, let's talk about what really matters, the Haygain Hay Steamers Clean Healthy Forage Mares' Handicap Hurdle....
The opening contest looks very tricky at first glance, with a big field of modest handicap hurdlers to choose from, but the testing conditions will soon sort the wheat from the chaff, and there are only a handful who make any real appeal on recent evidence. Je T'aime isn't living up to her excellent pedigree (half-sister J'y Vole was third in the 2010 Ryanair), and hails from a misfiring yard, while Niki Royal has been disappointing since winning her maiden here in January, and isn't certain to take to a first-time visor. Night of Passion is another one trying headgear for the first time, and has a bit to prove despite attracting support. Lansdowne Princess has also attracted support having joined the well-regarded Johnny Farrelly, but while such a move is noteworthy with horses who have lost their way, this 11-y-o was actually running well over fences for Gerald Ham when last seen, and isn't such an obvious improver, particularly with her hurdles profile a patchy one.
The one who stands out from the crown is Realta Mo Croi ("star of my heart" in Irish), who is totally unexposed, and showed much improved form when winning a Fontwell handicap in June from Band of Thunder and Franklino. She absolutely spreadeagled her field there, winning in a time which was more than four seconds quicker than that achieved by Mare Deja La in the second division of the same contest. The form looked solid at the time, but if there were any doubt, it was dispelled by wins for the second and third on their next outings. The handicapper has raised Realta Mo Croi a massive 21 lb for that success, but the bottom line is that she was simply on a wholly inappropriate mark starting out in handicaps, and looks up to defying her new mark today.
It takes something of a leap of faith to back Henry Hurst in the handicap chase at 13:40, with the Toby Balding-owned son of Bob's Return having failed to complete on all 3 of his starts over fences last season. That tells only half the story, however, as he was shaping really well when falling behind the useful Molotof at Taunton on his chase debut, and had no chance against Unioniste and Hadrian's Approach at Newbury next time. Another fall there on his handicap bow saw connections draw stumps and switch him back to hurdles. He's been running well in that sphere of late, making the frame on his last 4 starts, and returns to chasing from a very workable mark. His jumping is clearly a concern, but he's certainly got the physique to take to the bigger obstacles, and the drop in class should mean that he's not taken off his feet early, as he was a couple of times last term. He seems not to stay three miles, so hopefully today's trip will be within his compass, albeit with the stiff track a slight concern.
Recommendations:
Both at Towcester
Back Realta Mo Croi @ [6.6] in the 13:10 (NAP)
Back Henry Hurst @ [16.0] in the 13:40 (NB)
Monday 4 November 2013
Informant No Talking Horse
Plumpton has been a happy hunting ground of late, and will hopefully provide some more cheer on Monday, with The Informant making some appeal in the staying handicap chase for novices at 14:25. The favourite for this race is recent Aintree winner Samingarry, and he certainly won well enough there to suggest a penalty may not stop him, but this comes fairly quickly, and on heavy ground, which will make his impost all the harder to carry. As a result, it seems prudent to look elsewhere, and while the obvious choices further down the weights appear to be Days of Pleasure and Always Bold, neither of that pair could be described as reliable, with the former bouncing back to winning form last time, but just as likely to run a stinker here, while the latter still a maiden over fences after a dozen starts.
The Informant is something of a shot in the dark, but he showed he could go well fresh when winning a heavy-ground bumper on his Rules debut at Fontwell, and then had the requisite trio of runs over hurdles to gain a handicap mark. His pedigree suggests strongly that he will prove a different proposition now tackling a distance of ground over fences, with his damsire Roselier an exceptional producer of marathon chasers. An opening BHA mark of 97 is very workable, and he looks well worth an interest at the morning odds.
At Kempton, all eyes will be on Grands Crus when he lines up in the Pertemps qualifier at 14:40, and I would dearly love to see David Pipe's gallant grey back in the winners enclosure, but he must have questions to answer after last season's travails. I've heard it reported that he's back to his best, but the way he was backed before each of his first few races last term suggested that he was always expected, but his finishing effort has become a major concern, and gruelling races on heavy ground last winter can't have helped him either physically or psychologically. The drop in trip will suit him today, as will Kempton's track, but he simply can't be backed until showing that he's able to see his races out.
The bottom line is that overnight support for Grands Crus has made God's Own a backable price, and while I feel something of a traitor deserting one of my favourites, it pays to be hard hearted as a punter, and the price about Tom George's runner is simply too big. A progressive sort last winter, he looked set to pick up where he'd left off on his return at Chepstow only to be badly hampered at the second last, unseating paddy Brennan in the process. He was niggled briefly after the previous hurdle, but had come back on the bridle and looked the likeliest winner at the time of his departure, and can make amends off what is just a 1 lb higher mark.
Recommendations:
Back The Informant @ [9.4] in the 14:25 Plumpton (NAP)
Back God's Own @ [3.85] in the 14:40 Kempton (NB)
The Informant is something of a shot in the dark, but he showed he could go well fresh when winning a heavy-ground bumper on his Rules debut at Fontwell, and then had the requisite trio of runs over hurdles to gain a handicap mark. His pedigree suggests strongly that he will prove a different proposition now tackling a distance of ground over fences, with his damsire Roselier an exceptional producer of marathon chasers. An opening BHA mark of 97 is very workable, and he looks well worth an interest at the morning odds.
At Kempton, all eyes will be on Grands Crus when he lines up in the Pertemps qualifier at 14:40, and I would dearly love to see David Pipe's gallant grey back in the winners enclosure, but he must have questions to answer after last season's travails. I've heard it reported that he's back to his best, but the way he was backed before each of his first few races last term suggested that he was always expected, but his finishing effort has become a major concern, and gruelling races on heavy ground last winter can't have helped him either physically or psychologically. The drop in trip will suit him today, as will Kempton's track, but he simply can't be backed until showing that he's able to see his races out.
The bottom line is that overnight support for Grands Crus has made God's Own a backable price, and while I feel something of a traitor deserting one of my favourites, it pays to be hard hearted as a punter, and the price about Tom George's runner is simply too big. A progressive sort last winter, he looked set to pick up where he'd left off on his return at Chepstow only to be badly hampered at the second last, unseating paddy Brennan in the process. He was niggled briefly after the previous hurdle, but had come back on the bridle and looked the likeliest winner at the time of his departure, and can make amends off what is just a 1 lb higher mark.
Recommendations:
Back The Informant @ [9.4] in the 14:25 Plumpton (NAP)
Back God's Own @ [3.85] in the 14:40 Kempton (NB)
Friday 1 November 2013
Meteor Set To Strike
One of the conundrums facing regular bettors is whether to forgive a poor performance from a fancied runner. We can all recall those "cliff horses" who regularly have excuses for defeat, but often end up simply breaking our hearts. On the other hand, reliable performers who throw in a stinker for no reason will more often than not bounce straight back to form. I'm very hopeful that Easter Meteor falls into the latter category after a howler at Cheltenham on his return. On that occasion I'd made a strong case for him, and it was no consolation that the only pair identified as dangers should fill the first two positions.
On that occasion, the normally sound-jumping Easter Meteor made bad mistakes at the first three fences, and was effectively out of the race before it had begun. The nature of those errors suggested something was amiss, and he returned with a slipped saddle, but sadly the stewards failed to get an explanation for this or indeed any poor performance over the Showcase meeting. Hopefully this lack of attention will not be in evidence at the prestigious Open meeting later this month. The fact that Emma Lavelle is happy to turn Easter Meteor out quickly suggests that there is no inherent physical problem with the horse, and he's taken to leave that aberration behind.
In the closing handicap hurdle, Silver Dragon is taken to add to a recent Uttoxeter success, and looks the type to stay ahead of the handicapper for a while. Having travelled well at the Staffordshire venue, he was produced to lead just after the last, and appeared to have a little bit in reserve. That was a modest, but competitive handicap, and the form should prove reliable, and while Tony Coyle's charge has a 7-lb hike in the weights to overcome, he looks well up to the task.
Recommendations:
Back Easter Meteor @ [12.5] (NAP)
Back Silver Dragon @ [4.5] (NB)
On that occasion, the normally sound-jumping Easter Meteor made bad mistakes at the first three fences, and was effectively out of the race before it had begun. The nature of those errors suggested something was amiss, and he returned with a slipped saddle, but sadly the stewards failed to get an explanation for this or indeed any poor performance over the Showcase meeting. Hopefully this lack of attention will not be in evidence at the prestigious Open meeting later this month. The fact that Emma Lavelle is happy to turn Easter Meteor out quickly suggests that there is no inherent physical problem with the horse, and he's taken to leave that aberration behind.
In the closing handicap hurdle, Silver Dragon is taken to add to a recent Uttoxeter success, and looks the type to stay ahead of the handicapper for a while. Having travelled well at the Staffordshire venue, he was produced to lead just after the last, and appeared to have a little bit in reserve. That was a modest, but competitive handicap, and the form should prove reliable, and while Tony Coyle's charge has a 7-lb hike in the weights to overcome, he looks well up to the task.
Recommendations:
Back Easter Meteor @ [12.5] (NAP)
Back Silver Dragon @ [4.5] (NB)
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