Drinking in the Last Chance Saloon with Montaff

2.55 Wetherby - Racing UK 1 Price 3 Devices Novices Handicap Hurdle 

It's possible I need my bumps feeling for doing so, but I’m inclined to give one more chance to MONTAFF, who is essentially disappointing, but retains plenty of ability and could easily blow these away if consenting to put his best foot forward. Once a pattern-class stayer on the Flat, he’s yet to show much over hurdles, including on handicap debut at Fakenham last time. It’s easy enough to forgive any horse a poor run at that idiosyncratic track, however, and the wide open spaces of Wetherby look much more suitable here. He’s more likely to sulk around than he is to race with enthusiasm, in truth, but that is compensated for in a price drifting towards 20/1. 

Recommended:

1pt win Montaff @ 18/1 (various)

Take Road To Riches on Final Day

3.20 CHELTENHAM -  BETFRED GOLD CUP

SILVINIACO CONTI: A surprising failure a year ago when looking sure to win between the last two, but finished weakly. Has since rebuilt his reputation thanks to cheekpieces and treatment for gastric ulcers – the latter a decidedly contentious subject in itself. Has the best form in the book, but it still niggles that he’s never won on a genuinely stiff track, and the Gold Cup is not the sort of race where practice makes perfect. Vulnerable to an improver.

MANY CLOUDS: Underrated as a novice, and has thrived as expected in his second season. Reported to have had “a serious wobble” after winning an attritional Hennessy, he deserves huge credit for coming back to land the BetBright Cup at this course in January. An enormously likeable gelding, he relishes a fight, and would be seen to best effect if the ground came up testing. Recent rain is a plus in that regard.

ROAD TO RICHES: One of a pair of Galway Plate winners among the market leaders, he has improved markedly for a change of regime, and still looks to be progressing at this stage. Workmanlike in some eyes when landing the Lexus, he struck me as one who was overcoming adverse conditions, and is definitely undervalued by the market. It was amusing to hear his trainer talking up the favourite when asked about his chances recently. Big player.

DJAKADAM: Too young as a six-year-old to win a Gold Cup, according to the experts, but so were Golden Miller, Mill House, Long Run and others. He certainly lacked experience when falling in last year’s JLT, and plenty wrote him off after pulling up in the Hennessy. That looked a premature call when he returned to demolish his rivals in the Thyestes, and he’s the darkest horse of all in the contest. A bit more experience would be a plus, but he’s not taken lightly.

SUMMARY: Many Clouds has really come of age, and the rain which has hit Cheltenham today brings him strongly into contention, but narrow preference is for Road To Riches, who defied heavy gorund to win the Lexus with more in hand than the distances suggest, and he’s capable of taking his form to new heights now.  Djakadam lacks the experience to make him a confident shout, but remains a horse of tremendous potential, and is feared most.  

Make It A Knight To Remember

4.40 Cheltenham - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir

Clondaw Knight is one who has been on my radar since he scored on his chase debut at Kelso last season, although it’s only on his last two starts that he’s fully confirmed that abundant promise, winning hard held at Wetherby before an excellent second to Carole’s Destrier at Ascot. On both occasions his jumping has been impeccable, and he simply did too much too soon on the second occasion (also reported to have lost a shoe). The upside to that defeat was that the handicapper has kept him on a mark of 140, which looks very workable. A straightforward ride, he has yet to finish out of the places since switched to fences, and appeals as the type to keep progressing now he’s come of age, while the booking of the experienced Corky Carroll is another plus. Victory would be an emotional one for Lucinda Russell and owner Sandy Seymour, for whom this horse is a replacement for the brilliant but ill-fated Brindisi Breeze.

Recommended:

1.5pts e/w Clondaw Knight @ 20/1 (general)

No Winter Of Discontent for Pipe Followers

4.40 Cheltenham - Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle (2m110y)

Much the hardest event of the entire week to handicap, the Fred Winter can be a graveyard for followers of the market, but this is a race which tends to be run at a furious gallop, and it’s paid to stick to classy ex-Flat racers who are better able to cope with the frenetic pace that their NH-bred counterparts. One who looks to have been laid out for this is David Pipe’s UNANIMITE, who ran well from a mark of 94 on the Flat in December. He has had only the minimum number of runs over hurdles to require a mark, winning a modest affair at Market Rasen in September, and was trying to concede weight to Golden Doyen and Hargam in the Prestbury Hurdle here in November. He is bed to appreciate a fast surface, and avoided deep ground when trained by Keven Borgel in France.

Recommended:

1pt e/w Unanimite @ 16/1 (general)

Serge To Glory

1.30 Cheltenham - SkyBet Supreme Novices' Hurdle

A race wich has been dominated by Douvan in betting terms, and misquotes from Willie Mullins that he's "the best I've ever sent to Cheltenham" (sic) have seen bookmakers duck him in the ante-post market. He's clearly a big talent, but he's still an unfulfilled talent after winning just one ordinary Grade 2 contest in two starts for Mullins. As a result of his profile, it's impossible to be adamant about the limit of his capabilities, but the Supreme is a race which asks some very stern questions of an inexperienced horse, and as the likes of Best Mate has shown in the past, class is not enough on its own to win.

On the other hand, L'Ami Serge has experience aplenty, as well as clearly superior form in the book. Plenty will crab his win in a small-field Grade 1 last time, but he was impressive, and the form of his win in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury in November has worked out exceptionally well, with the winners of the Betfair and National Spirit Hurdles in his wake. That form had another small boost when Astre de La Cour won at Stratford, and whatever way you analyse the form, Nicky Henderson's charge looks a standout. Douvan may improve enough to beat him, but I prefer what my eyes tell me, and there is only one way I can bet here.

Recommended:

2pts win L'Ami Serge @ 7/2 (general)

Repeat Guest Should Be Entertained

6.45 Kempton - 32Red com Handicap ( 1m2f) 

I'm keen to take on the quirky Tryster in this handicap despite the Godolphin runner having won his last two. He was the winner on merit at Chelmsford on his return, but swerved badly across Gaelic Silver there, and plenty believed that the runner-up should have been awarded the race. It's interesting given that view that Tryster is odds-on today, whereas Gaelic Silver is no less than 9 lbs better off, yet available to back at 16/1 in a place. The winner seemed to improve when scoring again at Wolverhampton, but he had the race set up for him with the front pair getting involved in a speed battle from the halfway point. The leaders tired noticeably in the final furlong, and I believe that the visual ease of Tryster's victory was potentially misleading. That said, he's clearly improving at the right time, and may will bring up the hat-trick, but I see no value in his current odds.

It's harder to make a case for Rebellious Guest, but he shaped a fair bit better than the bare result at Lingfield last time (Beach Bar second), and has been gradually easing in the weights on the back of a barren run. His form last spring would give him an excellent chance, and he won this corresponding event from a slightly higher mark a year ago. He's not easy to catch right, but keeps hinting that the old ability is still all there, and it's merely a matter of time before he clicks. The booking of Jamie Spencer is a positive for a horse who needs finessing.

Recommended:

1pt win Rebellious Guest @ 7/1 (general)

Catch The Smidgen

2.40 WOLVERHAMPTON - DAILY ENHANCED 'MAGIC MULTIPLES' AT UNIBET HANDICAP

Gabrial’s Wawa is respected given the form he’s been in of late, but there may be an angle in opposing him with SMIDGEN, for all that rival was behind Michael Squance’s runner at Lingfield late last month. Smidgen is very lightly raced, and was having his first run since the spring there, and shaped in kind, showing speed for five furlongs before weakening. He benefited from last year’s comeback when an excellent second at Pontefract, and looked all over the winner after blazing a trail there. I’d once again expect him to improve for a recent outing, and he looks set for a bold run. At 8/1 he appeals as an each-way bet, but I’d personally be tempted to utilise him as a back-to-lay option. There is a possibility that he’ll always be vulnerable late on at this trip, but I’d be surprised if he didn’t look like winning at some point, and he did trade at 1.15 on his penultimate start.

Recommended:
Back Smidgen @ 9.0 or bigger for 2pts (to win 16pts)
Lay Smidgen @ 3.5 for 2pts (to lose 5pts)
Lay Smidgen @ 1.5 for 4pts (to lose 2pts)

What's The Storey, Bumper Glory?

5.10 Sedgefield - Kirkella Standard Open NH Flat Race (2m 1f)

On a day which fails to inspire, I've decided to take something of a chance on finding a winner from what would seem an unlikely source. Brian Storey has had a varied career as jockey, starter and now trainer, with the undoubted highlight of his riding days being the success of Sparky Gayle in the Cathcart Chase at the 1997 Cheltenham Festival.

He's not made much of an impact since taking out a licence to train a decade ago, with just a 3% strike rate all told, but there is one area in which he's had a degree of joy in recent seasons, and that's with bumper debutants, with both Cole Harden and Hannahs' Princess landing gambles at the first time of asking. It's interesting that both of those have subsequently joined Warren Greatrex, and the latter was the subject of a significant jockey booking, with Noel Fehily taking the ride. It's therefore interesting that Storey should seek the services of Aidan Coleman for newcomer Court Rise today. The son of Court Cave doesn't stand out on paper, but his sire has a decent record in similar events, and pedigree is not the be-all and end-all with bumpers.

I'd prefer to see some market support before parting with serious cash on this venture, but there are reasons to believe that the trainer's poor overall record will see this gelding significantly underbet in the early market, so he's worth a speculative half point at the early odds, with a top-up advised should he garner support at the track.

Recommended:

5.10 Sedg - 0.5pts win Court Rise @ 12/1 (general)