Claret To Provide Christmas Cheer

When doing a shift on Timeform Radio last week, I was asked by colleague Mark Grantham if I had any fancies over the holiday period, or “Christmas presents”, to borrow his terminology. There are several races which attract a flood of money over the festive period, including the Ladbroke Hurdle, King George, and Welsh National, and I thought I’d try to pick a selection in each of the 3 big events to provide some fun, and hopefully a decent profit, to help offset the inevitable expenses.

In the Ladbroke Hurdle (Saturday, Ascot), my allegiance is squarely with Claret Cloak, a horse I’ve been very keen on since he won a bumper at Wincanton last autumn.  Emma Lavelle’s son of Vinnie Roes hasn’t disappointed, and ran a race full of promise over the Ladbroke C&D on his return. Racing closer than the pace than ideal, he jumped boldly and briefly looked the winner as he kicked on approaching the straight, but was worn down by Raya Star and It’s a Gimme. He will improve on that performance, and the recent resurgence of the Lavelle yard has come just in time. He’s trading at 17.0 on Betfair at present, and is likely to be much shorter on the day given his profile.

The King George market has been thrown into disarray by the news of a tendon injury to my original fancy Al Ferof, and with Long Run looking increasingly vulnerable, the race has a much more open look than normal. Long Run will go well if adopting forcing tactics which will nullify the effect of his sloppy jumping (he’s fundamentally safe at his fences, and will look better when allowed to do his own thing, I believe), but there has been no suggestion that connections are keen to grasp this particular nettle, and until they do, his lack of tactical speed will continue to be his downfall. Riverside Theatre has obvious claims, given his ability to go well fresh, while I believe that Cue Card is very much a 3-miler in the making, and he’s another for the definitive shortlist. Of the others, Grands Crus has had an awful preparation and is reluctantly passed over, Captain Chris is flattered by his latest Ascot win and needs to jump straighter to improve on last year’s third – he’s fast becoming the new Racing Demon. Kauto Stone is overrated, and won a pretty substandard affair at Down Royal last time. Paul Nicholls was convinced he was a 2-miler last year, and his insistence that he’s now a stayer smacks of wishful thinking. Sizing Europe is an unlikely runner, and Finians Rainbow needs to bounce back from a poor effort at Ascot. Sir Des Champs was described as 50/50 by Willie Mullins prior to Al Ferof’s injury, and this race will suit him better than facing the frightening Flemenstar again at Leopardstown, so he looks a fascinating contender. I believe Mullins would prefer to avoid hock-deep ground, and that means that the Jewson Chase hero must be considered more likely to turn up at Kempton. If he does, he will start favourite, so I’m happy to chance him at around 14/1. Cue Card is an able substitute.

In the Welsh National, there seems to be a generic lack of new blood, and it’s a race which is less competitive than the numbers suggest. Rebecca Curtis has been up front with the fact that she’s left National Hunt Chase winner Teaforthree  short of peak in his 2 starts this season, and he’s shaped very well in competitive events at Cheltenham and Newbury without being unduly knocked about. He will surely be 100% when lining up for what has been his main aim all year, and he won’t need to improve to go very close. He’s an unoriginal selection, but looks something of a standout, so can’t be ignored.

Recommended Bets:

Back  Claret Cloak  in the Ladbroke Hurdle  @ [18.0]

Back Sir des Champs in the King George  @ [15.0]

Back  Teaforthree  in the Welsh National  @ [6.0]

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107672264&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=105262004&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107531492&ex=1&origin=MRL

Can Neo Prove The One At Ffos Las?

Fans of sci-fi hokem The Matrix will recall that Keanu Reeves’ character Neo was foreseen as “The One”, and hopefully Nigel Hawke’s Master Neo can prove the one for punters in the 14:45 at Ffos Las today. Master Neo already has a verdict over 2 of today’s rivals, finishing well ahead of Volador when the pair made their respective debuts at Worcester in October. That came in a beginners chase, and Volador is forced to run off his old hurdles mark (the BHA’s new novice chase reform was introduced purely to increase field sizes in novice chases and not for the handicappers to see further evidence upon which to assess horses), which gives him little chance from a logical handicap perspective. The son of Turgeon finished well clear of Benheir at Newbury last time when neither shone in a competitive novices’ handicap, and meets that rival on the same terms today. A return to further on heavy ground will suit Master Neo, who impressed when winning in similar conditions at Uttoxeter. A change of tactics didn’t help last time, and he should be handy from the outset today. Incentivise comes here seeking a hat-trick, but has crept up in the weights, and his purple patch looks set to end, especially with the less-exposed Kaybeew reopposing on significantly better terms having finished a promising third to Richard Lee’s charge at Fontwell last time. Kaybeew faltered late on there, either as a result of his stamina ebbing away, or due to a lack of race fitness. Either way, he should do better now, and is worthy of plenty of respect.

Daryl Jacob made headlines when dropping his hands on Ulis de Vassy earlier this month, and his appeal against a 10-day ban was recently rejected. Many will view the pair as banker material when lining up in the 15:15 at Ffos Las, a race which looks weaker than the Wincanton event. He should certainly go very well, but it’s worth pointing out that he’s taken a 6-lb rise in the weights for that defeat, and isn’t the handicap blot he might appear to some, especially with a slight worry about whether the blinkers he wore last time will be as much help a second time. Few of his rivals can be fancied on recent efforts, but a couple who appeal as capable of bouncing back are Scorched Son and Captain Paulie. The former was runner-up in this last year, and probably needed the outing when well held at Sandown on his only start since; that will have put an edge on him, and he looks a player, but it’s Captain Paulie who makes more appeal.  A winner of a 2m Cork handicap hurdle in April last year for Colm Murphy, he’s failed to fully convince over fences for either Patrick Holmes, or in a couple of spins since joining Evan Williams. That said, he didn’t shape at all badly at Chepstow last month, and can bounce back now reverting to the minimum trip over timber.  

The closing bumper (15:45) is an interesting contest, and all but one of the yards represented have a record of having their debutants well forward. David Pipe won this with the promising Gevrey Chambertin last year, and his representative Vieux Lion Rouge is respected, as is Solstice Son, whose trainer Anthony Honeyball has few peers in this sphere. That pair dominate the market, but  there are others with claims on paper at much bigger odds.  Alongthewatchtower comes from the lesser-known yard of Barry Brennan, but one which sent out a newcomer to finish second in a competitive event at Wetherby recently, and which had a debutant winner in the shape of Theatrelands earlier in the year. Dave Evans, who has Neverminpete, is better known for his lat/AW exploits, but 3 newcomers in bumpers this season have all run with credit, with 2 winning and the other making the frame at big odds. Don’t ignore this pair, especially if late money arrives.

Recommended Bets:

Back  Master Neo  in the 14:45 Ffos Las @ [7.0] (NAP)

Back  Captain Paulie in the 15:15 Ffos Las @ [6.2] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107760235&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107760237&ex=1&origin=MRL

D-Day for “The Big Zed”

My Cheltenham Radio colleague Dave Farrar has confused more than one listener with his admiration for a horse he refers to as “Big Zed”. Given the exploits of Colm Murphy’s ex-champion chaser Big Zeb,  it’s natural for many to think Dave is a little confused, but the horse Mr Farrar holds in such esteem is, in fact, the 2011 Triumph Hurdle hero Zarkandar, and while the nickname may not have caught on yet, a victory in the International Hurdle today (Cheltenham 15:05) coupled with Fazza’s infectious enthusiasm may yet see that scenario change.  Zarkandar’s claims are crystal clear after an impressive defeat of Prospect Wells in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton, and the fitness edge he holds over Grandouet and Rock On Ruby may prove crucial. So, too, may the weight he receives from that pair, and he must win today to prolong his claims as a genuine Champion Hurdle candidate. Some will point to his eclipse in the Champion itself as proof that he doesn’t have what it takes to beat the best over 2m, but my view of that contest is very different. Zarkandar usually impresses in appearance, but was decidedly lacklustre in the paddock last March, and I believe that his inability to go with the leaders before plugging on was not the running of a nascent stayer, but that of a horse who was well below his best, but willing to dig deep. It’s been established that he was sick after his Betfair Hurdle win, and judging him on his Festival performance is dangerous. He didn’t look short of speed around Wincanton’s sharp turns, and I believe he will be a major force in the 2013 Champion Hurdle. If that view is correct, then he is an outstanding bet at odds against today.

In the Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Gold Cup (or Massey Ferguson for those with very long memories), I believe that Walkon will go well again, despite a reputation of being best fresh. It would certainly pay a compliment to Al Ferof if he, or Nadiya de La Vega, could frank the Paddy Power form, but there is one in the field at a much bigger price who also interests me. Golden Chieftain hasn’t always convinced as a performer, for all he’s shown himself to have the kind of engine needed to compete at a high level. He’s tended to finish weakly at times, and his jumping over fences has not been the most polished, to say the least, but a change of tactics of late has helped him, and he was undeniably impressive when winning a competitive handicap at Worcester in October. That came under front-running tactics and with cheekpieces on for the first time, and good as it looked at the time, it’s the subsequent exploits of the beaten horses which makes it most noteworthy. Simply Wings, George Nympton, Current Event and Tatispout all won next time (as did early faller Double Ross), and it’s form which stands up to the closest scrutiny. The son of Tikkanen was ostensibly disappointing in the Badger Ales at Wincanton next time, but still shaped very well for a long way before patently failing to get home, and his trademark sloppy jumping was again notably absent. A drop back to 21f will help enormously now, and he will cope with the testing ground better than most (has won his only start when racing on heavy). The fitting of a tongue tie is a slight worry (has had a breathing operation), but he will hopefully see things out better as a result, and while he clearly comes with risks, that is compensated by a current price of 23.0 on Betfair.

Recommended Bets:

Back  Zarkandar  in the 15:05 Cheltenham  @ [2.32] (NAP)

Back  Golden Chieftain in the 14:30 Taunton @ [23.0] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107751447&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107735123&ex=1&origin=MRL

Keevil At The Double?

Dorset trainer Caroline Keevil enjoyed a red-letter day when Sound Stage gave her a first Cheltenham winner in this week 3 years ago, and hers is an outfit I’ve followed fairly closely ever since. Last season was something of a write off, as she struggled to keep her horses healthy, although she had initially made a bright start at her new base at Motcombe, having leapfrogged Paul Nicholls geographically from her old yard at Blagdon, to the south of Bristol Airport. A break has allowed her to sort things out, and her runners have been performing better on the whole this autumn. Among those to benefit from her patient approach is Marshal Zhukov (15:00 Taunton), who built on the promise he showed on chase debut when scoring in some style at Chepstow in October. He was a creditable third to Ackertack at Ascot last time, but the result tells only half the story, as he positively tanked through the race before being prematurely kicked for home by James Best with 5 fences left to jump. That move was arguably justified given the horse’s tendency to race with zest, and he certainly benefited from being allowed to attack his fences, but the effort told on the long run from Swinley Bottom, and he was patently outstayed on the testing ground. Despite a background in points, the son of Morozov looks the type to benefit from a drop to 2m, and his sound jumping as much as his free-going nature will help in that regard. Joe Tizzard takes the reins today, and the pair should go very close despite top weight.

Earlier in the card, Keevil can strike with the Brian Derrick-owned Bally Legend in the limited handicap for novices at 13:50. This is a horse I’ve always had an eye on, as his dam, Bally Lira, was an old favourite when trained by Pat Rodford. She stayed extremely well, and did most of her winning in the colours of Victor Thorne. It’s no coincidence that owner and trainer have targeted this contest, which is named in honour of the late Thorne, and Bally Legend has what it takes to carry on the family tradition. He was a hurdles winner over 17f at Cheltenham in this week last year, and has caught the eye on both starts over fences this term. On his debut at this track, he was unable to go with Molotof and Changing Times, but wasn’t at all knocked about in finishing third. He built on that when second to the talented Current Event over 21f at Kempton last time despite not being seen to advantage given how that race was run (Harry Derham dictated on the bold-jumping winner which proved crucial). That looked a strong race of its type, and there is little doubt that Bally Legend is potentially ahead of his mark. His jumping suffered late on at Kempton, but I don’t see him as one with a problem in that department, and he can only improve with experience.

Recommended Bets:

Back  Marshall Zhukov  in the 15:20 Taunton  @ [4.0] (NAP)

Back  Bally Legend in the 13:50 Taunton @ [6.6] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107727606&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107727601&ex=1&origin=MRL

Drop in Trip Can Produce Magic Result

A tendency to pull hard has stopped Clive Cox’s talented sprinter Seeking Magic (15:00 Lingfield) from achieving all that he might, despite the help of a hood, but there is no denying that he’s potentially well handicapped off a BHA mark of 85, and he’s caught the eye on several occasions this year since a most unfortunate loser on his return at Folkestone in April. Given a break since his final turf run of the campaign, Seeking Magic typically failed to settle in a steadily-run 6f event at Kempton last time, giving Adam Kirby little choice but to press on, and the pair looked to have the race won when briefly kicking clear in the straight, only to be mowed down late. That third to Noverre To Go and O’Gorman looks the most solid piece of form on offer, and a strongly run race back at 5f looks sure to suit the keen-going son of Haafhd. Few ride better than Kirby on the artificial surfaces, but in Graham Lee, the selection has a most able substitute, and one with marvellous hands at that. If Seeking Magic won’t settle for Lee, then he won’t settle, full stop. With Scott Dixon’s pair Even Stevens and Six Wives being proven pacesetters, this should be run at a strong pace which will help the selection, and he should have no excuses. Topweight Swiss Cross has never been better, but this will be tougher than the 6f event he won here last time, and the combination of a drop to the minimum and a 6 lb penalty look enough to prevent him following up. He’s now 10 lb worse off for a 2-length beating of Ajjaadd at Kempton 13 days ago, and I fancy that Ted Powell’s gelding will turn the tables with this trip more in his favour.  Those looking to play the forecast market could do worse than combining the pair, or including the consistent Last Sovereign in combination exotics.

Graham Lee has double claims with Loyal Royal likely to start no bigger than 5/1 for the “Breathe Spa At Lingfield Park Handicap” at 14:00, but Milton Bradley’s wily performer knows several ways to lose, and it will be a feather in the jockey’s cap if he can force the 9-y-o to end a frustrating sequence of defeats. As always, The best way of playing this enigmatic character is with a short-odds lay in the run. A likelier winner is Mey Blossom, who got back to winning ways at Wolverhampton last month, and fared best of those on an overly-strong pace when second to Dickie le Davoir there last time. Another good run looks on the cards, especially with Robert Winston back on board.

Recommended Bets:

Back  Seeking Magic  in the 15:00 Lingfield  @ [3.75] (NAP)

Back  Mey Blossom in the 14:00 Lingfield @ [8.0] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107713832&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107713828&ex=1&origin=MRL

Bumper Musings #1

Here's my analysis of tomorrow's Sedgefield bumper which I've done for the racecard, and for the timeform/free site. I'm not sure whether there's much call for this sort of thing, but it keeps me off the streets, so what the heck....

* edit - my thanks to Will Bowler for pointing out that Tiny Dancer is a grandson of my namesake Helynsar, a useful hurdler back in the mid/late 80's for the late Billy Rock. That brings back plenty of happy memories for me, as Mr Rock's Cullybackey yard was fairly local to me growing up. It's also where a young Tony McCoy chose to play truant, incidentally.  Her extended pedigree can be found in this sales excerpt: http://www.dbsauctions.com/pdf/dbs/206/54_406.pdf

15:20 Sedgefield Going: Soft  |  Distance: 2m1f  |  Prize money: £2100  |   Race Type: National Hunt Flat

Timeform view

Lord of Tara would be interesting if taking up his entry, but the vote is given to Enchanted Garden, who was an unlucky second at Newcastle last time. Sealous Scout is a clear pick among the debutants, and merits close attention.

Timeform 1-2-3
1		Enchanted Garden
2		Sealous Scout (IRE)
3		Lord Of Tara

1		Alfapoint	4	11-2	G M Moore	Barry Keniry
2	56	Blakemans Law	4	11-2	S Corbett	Stephen Mulqueen (7)
3	22	Enchanted Garden	4	11-2	J M Jefferson	Brian Hughes
4		Lord Brendy	4	11-2	R Johnson	Kenny Johnson
5	22-42	Lord Of Tara	6	11-2 t	A J Martin	Paddy Brennan
6		Picks Milan (IRE)	6	11-2	Mrs K Walton	Richie McGrath
7		Sealous Scout (IRE)	4	11-2	D McCain Jnr	Jason Maguire
8	7	The Bold Lord (IRE)	4	11-2	G A Swinbank	Fearghal Davis
9		Tiny Dancer (IRE)	4	11-2	Micky Hammond	Joe Colliver (7)
10		Lets Be On	5	10-9	T D Walford	Brian Toomey (3)
11	59	Silver Speech	4	10-9	D Thompson	Tony Kelly (5)
12	UPPP-P	Welsh Conflict (IRE)	5	10-9	R Johnson	Mr Colm McCormack (7)

Betting forecast (102.5%)

Lord Of Tara (9/4), Enchanted Garden (5/2), Sealous Scout (4/1), The Bold Lord (16/1), Lets Be On (18/1), Tiny Dancer (22/1), Picks Milan (28/1), Alfapoint (50/1) Lord Brendy (80/1), Blakemans Law (250/1), Silver Speech (250/1), Welsh Conflict (500/1).

1 - Alfapoint  - Fourth foal of a modest maiden hurdler from family of prolific hunter chaser Mr Mellors. Looks a long-term prospect on paper.

2 - Blakemans Law - Soundly beaten in bumpers at Hexham and Market Rasen in the summer, and looks of little account.

3 - Enchanted Garden - Better effort to date when 1¼ lengths second of 15 to Just Cameron at Newcastle last time, finishing well after losing momentum when denied a clear run. Sure to go well in bid to make amends.

4 - Lord Brendy - Portrait Gallery gelding out of a winning pointer from a staying family. Appeals as one for the longer term.

5 - Lord Of Tara - Second on both runs in points in 2011 and has made a promising start in bumpers, fourth at Down Royal, and runner-up in messy affair at Cork (tongue tied) last time. Engaged 3.20 Musselburgh Monday.

6 - Picks Milan (IRE)  - Milan gelding out of a mare who was well held on both starts in bumpers. Yard is capable of readying a newcomer, but others make more appeal on pedigree.

7 - Sealous Scout (IRE)  - Old Vic gelding out of a bumper-winning half-sister to useful hurdler Hirapour. Cost €30,000 as a 3-y-o, and starts out in bumpers for leading yard, so merits plenty of respect.

8 - The Bold Lord (IRE) - Half-brother to 19f bumper winner/fairly useful 2m hurdler Huckle Buck Shoe. Ran below expectations when seventh of 9 in newcomers event at Ayr last month, but possible that run was needed.

9 - Tiny Dancer (IRE) - Darsi gelding out of an unraced half-sister to fairly useful staying hurdler Night Safe. Yard have tasted success in this sphere, but breeding points to him needing further.

10 - Lets Be On - Sister to staying chaser Beamazed, who was third on bumper debut for this yard, and dam also placed in this sphere, so not dismissed lightly, for all she will benefit from longer trips in time.

11 - Silver Speech - Proclamation filly out of a 6f/7f winner. No promise in bumpers at Hexham and Towcester this term.

12 - Welsh Conflict (IRE) - Close Conflict mare who has failed to complete in all 5 starts between the flags and looks a most unlikely winner on Rules bow. 

Jockeys & Clichés...

Sports pundits are often maligned for slipping into a stream of clichés when the predictable so often happens, and while I’d defy anyone to commentate on a 35-minute frame of snooker or a turgid 15-rounder between heavyweights without doing a degree of filling, it’s often true that such lines are trotted out when the evidence points to them not being wholly appropriate. Jump racing’s biggest lie is that Tony McCoy will figuratively throw that most hackneyed of kitchen appliances at every mount in his obsessive desire to win. Nonsense.  That may have been true years ago, but McCoy’s retainer with J P McManus demands that he rides much more pragmatically these days. It’s true that giving a beaten horse a gruelling ride on the off-chance of a miracle win when it’s gone unbacked in a low-grade handicap is not the wisest of long-term policies if connections are determined to profit from the beast in question, and to that end it’s well worth watching a replay of the Folkestone contest in which Mission Complete (14:40 Warwick) finished behind Pete The Feat last time. The McCoy of myth would have galvanised his mount into finishing a closing third behind a well-handicapped winner (both first and second have won since), but the pragmatic version gave but one vague wave of the stick after the second last before finishing a well-held fifth. That kindness will not be lost on the stout-staying Mission Complete, who jumped well on the whole in first-time cheekpieces, and the effort has been rewarded by an ease in the weights from the handicapper. Given he’s a 6-y-o out of a Roselier mare who has already proved that stamina is his forte, it’s impossible to imagine that he’s not still improving, and a BHA mark of 107 is more than workable based on his hurdles form, under which code he won 3 of his 8 handicap starts. The 29f trip will see his stamina brought fully into play today, and he looks ready to shine, so expect his rider to be rather more animated.

On the subject of jockeys, I’m not at all sure that the dour Lie Forrit will be suited by the languid style of my bête noir, James Reveley,  in the Persimmon Homes Champion Chase at Kelso (13:55). Lie Forrit looked a star of the future when winning over hurdles at Cheltenham a couple of years ago, but he hasn’t taken to chasing with the dash which might have been hoped for, and jockey Zander Voy reported: “From the word go Lie Forrit didn’t travel and he jumped very carefully” when he was a disappointment under a hold-up ride at Haydock last time.  It’s possible that new tactics will be adopted today, and he could go well if allowed to bowl along, but that simply isn’t Reveley’s style, and if he elects to hold Willie Amos’ gelding up, then he will be handing the race on a silver platter to course specialist Knockara Beau, on whom Lucy Alexander won’t be messing about (I’ve earned that cliché, thanks) .  Knockara Beau has long been a favourite of mine, and seems to have found the perfect foil in the shape of Miss Alexander, who is a cut or two above his old pilot Jan Faltejsek in terms of quality.

Recommended Bets:

Back Mission Complete  in the 14:40 Warwick  @ [4.5] (NAP)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107703128&ex=1&origin=MRL

Back  Knockara Beau in the 13:55 Kelso @ [2.48] (NB) 

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107702966&ex=1&origin=MRL