Bumper Musings #1

Here's my analysis of tomorrow's Sedgefield bumper which I've done for the racecard, and for the timeform/free site. I'm not sure whether there's much call for this sort of thing, but it keeps me off the streets, so what the heck....

* edit - my thanks to Will Bowler for pointing out that Tiny Dancer is a grandson of my namesake Helynsar, a useful hurdler back in the mid/late 80's for the late Billy Rock. That brings back plenty of happy memories for me, as Mr Rock's Cullybackey yard was fairly local to me growing up. It's also where a young Tony McCoy chose to play truant, incidentally.  Her extended pedigree can be found in this sales excerpt: http://www.dbsauctions.com/pdf/dbs/206/54_406.pdf

15:20 Sedgefield Going: Soft  |  Distance: 2m1f  |  Prize money: £2100  |   Race Type: National Hunt Flat

Timeform view

Lord of Tara would be interesting if taking up his entry, but the vote is given to Enchanted Garden, who was an unlucky second at Newcastle last time. Sealous Scout is a clear pick among the debutants, and merits close attention.

Timeform 1-2-3
1		Enchanted Garden
2		Sealous Scout (IRE)
3		Lord Of Tara

1		Alfapoint	4	11-2	G M Moore	Barry Keniry
2	56	Blakemans Law	4	11-2	S Corbett	Stephen Mulqueen (7)
3	22	Enchanted Garden	4	11-2	J M Jefferson	Brian Hughes
4		Lord Brendy	4	11-2	R Johnson	Kenny Johnson
5	22-42	Lord Of Tara	6	11-2 t	A J Martin	Paddy Brennan
6		Picks Milan (IRE)	6	11-2	Mrs K Walton	Richie McGrath
7		Sealous Scout (IRE)	4	11-2	D McCain Jnr	Jason Maguire
8	7	The Bold Lord (IRE)	4	11-2	G A Swinbank	Fearghal Davis
9		Tiny Dancer (IRE)	4	11-2	Micky Hammond	Joe Colliver (7)
10		Lets Be On	5	10-9	T D Walford	Brian Toomey (3)
11	59	Silver Speech	4	10-9	D Thompson	Tony Kelly (5)
12	UPPP-P	Welsh Conflict (IRE)	5	10-9	R Johnson	Mr Colm McCormack (7)

Betting forecast (102.5%)

Lord Of Tara (9/4), Enchanted Garden (5/2), Sealous Scout (4/1), The Bold Lord (16/1), Lets Be On (18/1), Tiny Dancer (22/1), Picks Milan (28/1), Alfapoint (50/1) Lord Brendy (80/1), Blakemans Law (250/1), Silver Speech (250/1), Welsh Conflict (500/1).

1 - Alfapoint  - Fourth foal of a modest maiden hurdler from family of prolific hunter chaser Mr Mellors. Looks a long-term prospect on paper.

2 - Blakemans Law - Soundly beaten in bumpers at Hexham and Market Rasen in the summer, and looks of little account.

3 - Enchanted Garden - Better effort to date when 1¼ lengths second of 15 to Just Cameron at Newcastle last time, finishing well after losing momentum when denied a clear run. Sure to go well in bid to make amends.

4 - Lord Brendy - Portrait Gallery gelding out of a winning pointer from a staying family. Appeals as one for the longer term.

5 - Lord Of Tara - Second on both runs in points in 2011 and has made a promising start in bumpers, fourth at Down Royal, and runner-up in messy affair at Cork (tongue tied) last time. Engaged 3.20 Musselburgh Monday.

6 - Picks Milan (IRE)  - Milan gelding out of a mare who was well held on both starts in bumpers. Yard is capable of readying a newcomer, but others make more appeal on pedigree.

7 - Sealous Scout (IRE)  - Old Vic gelding out of a bumper-winning half-sister to useful hurdler Hirapour. Cost €30,000 as a 3-y-o, and starts out in bumpers for leading yard, so merits plenty of respect.

8 - The Bold Lord (IRE) - Half-brother to 19f bumper winner/fairly useful 2m hurdler Huckle Buck Shoe. Ran below expectations when seventh of 9 in newcomers event at Ayr last month, but possible that run was needed.

9 - Tiny Dancer (IRE) - Darsi gelding out of an unraced half-sister to fairly useful staying hurdler Night Safe. Yard have tasted success in this sphere, but breeding points to him needing further.

10 - Lets Be On - Sister to staying chaser Beamazed, who was third on bumper debut for this yard, and dam also placed in this sphere, so not dismissed lightly, for all she will benefit from longer trips in time.

11 - Silver Speech - Proclamation filly out of a 6f/7f winner. No promise in bumpers at Hexham and Towcester this term.

12 - Welsh Conflict (IRE) - Close Conflict mare who has failed to complete in all 5 starts between the flags and looks a most unlikely winner on Rules bow.