Best bet on Sunday's card at Doncaster is Dr Richard Newland's Mart Lane, who can uphold the trainer's remarkable recent strike-rate by taking the handicap chase at 14:20. A former inmate of the Shark Hanlon yard, he looked transformed when winning on debut for his new stable at Bangor, but was feeling the effects of that slog when below form at Sandown just nine days later. He bounced back to form when third over this C&D last time, albeit proving no match for the front pair, but this drop in class allied to the refitting of blinkers should see him go very close at a fair price.
The son of Stowaway lost his pitch around the home turn last time before keeping on again, thereby proving his stamina for three miles, and it's to be hoped that the headgear will help him maintain his pitch towards the head of affairs if and when the pace picks up. He's only four pounds higher than for that Bangor success, and the recent exploits of the stable (three of the last five runners from the yard have won) augur well for a big run.
At Leopardstown, I'm hopeful that Our Conor can dethrone Hurricane Fly, but the best bet on that card comes in the opening contest, where Baily Dusk can continue an excellent run. Mouse Morris' gelding looked disappointing until fitted with blinkers this autumn, but has been transformed by headgear, winning twice and finishing second on the other two occasions. He's a front runner who clearly stays well, and will have most of today's field in trouble before halfway. The danger is Wrong Turn, who may well have won his last three in this sphere, but errors have put him on the floor on his last 2 starts. If he avoids mistakes he may well win, but Baily Dusk looks a much safer bet on that score.
Recommendations:
Back Mart Lane @ [7.8] in the 14:20 Doncaster (NAP)
Back Baily Dusk @ [6.6] in the 12:25 Leopardstown (NB)
Sunday 29 December 2013
Friday 27 December 2013
Don't Miss Valoroso
Sprinter Sacre may be the star of the show at Kempton, but he offers very slim pickings for punters at current odds, and there are a couple at bigger prices on the card who make more appeal from a betting perspective.
It's always a concern when backing a yard whose runners show signs that all may not be well, and both Colin Tizzard and Alan King have recently reported many of their inmates to be virus-affected. It seems Kim Bailey can be added to that list, after yesterday's flop Twelve Roses was found to be "riddled with mucus" after a post-race scope. That's a shame, as Mrs Peachey would have been a confident selection in Kempton's 14:00 otherwise, but discretion is the better part of valour, and I cannot tip the mare with confidence with such a cloud hanging over her.
I will go instead to the three-mile handicap chase at 15:05 for my selection, and while Bally Legend is very much respected after winning at Exeter recently, the vote goes to the unexposed Valoroso, who caught the eye when falling at the last with the race at his mercy at Wincanton in January on what was just his second start over obstacles. Unfancied that day, he jumped better than his better-fancied rivals until that lapse, and slipped up on the flat on his next start. He got it right at Ffos Las in March, and was a big eye-catcher when fifth at Newbury (tongue tied) on his return, taken wide before making late headway under just a hand ride. He is a point winner out of a Roselier mare and promises to improve for the step back up to this trip, while any further softening of the ground will suit better than most.
Unlike most of today's rivals, Valoroso hasn't shown his full hand to the assessor by any means, and has scope to progress much further. His jumping is sure to improve with experience, and he strikes as the type to stay ahead of the handicapper for some time, so be sure to keep him on side.
Wetherby's feature race is the Castleford Chase (14:15), and this year's renewal is a fascinating one, with Majaala heading the weights, but looking in the grip of the handicapper based on his novice exploits. He's closely matched with His Excellency on Warwick form in February, but the latter has failed to fire this season, and is a tricky customer who always flashes his tail, and can look less than genuine as a result. Pepite Rose is well treated on the pick of her efforts, but that has come over further than two miles, and on better ground than she'll encounter today. The eye is inexorably drawn to King of The Wolds, a raw novice who the formbook tells us beat the poor and regressive Flichity over a staying trip at Fakenham last time. Such bare facts can be misleading, though, and there are reasons to be very sweet on Malcolm Jefferson's charge here.
King of The Wolds, despite that Fakenham win, is no slowcoach, and this enthusiastic front runner ought to benefit from a drop to the minimum trip after that bloodless success, made easier by the departure of chief rival Dursey Sound. He was prone to the odd error over hurdles, but already looks an assured jumper of the larger obstacles, and while he wouldn't want to get into a battle with Majaala for the early advantage, he looks more than capable of beating that rival in receipt of eighteen pounds.
Recommendations:
Back Valoroso @ [5.6] in the 15:05 Kempton (NAP)
Back King of The Wolds @ [3.3] in the 14:15 Wetherby (NB)
It's always a concern when backing a yard whose runners show signs that all may not be well, and both Colin Tizzard and Alan King have recently reported many of their inmates to be virus-affected. It seems Kim Bailey can be added to that list, after yesterday's flop Twelve Roses was found to be "riddled with mucus" after a post-race scope. That's a shame, as Mrs Peachey would have been a confident selection in Kempton's 14:00 otherwise, but discretion is the better part of valour, and I cannot tip the mare with confidence with such a cloud hanging over her.
I will go instead to the three-mile handicap chase at 15:05 for my selection, and while Bally Legend is very much respected after winning at Exeter recently, the vote goes to the unexposed Valoroso, who caught the eye when falling at the last with the race at his mercy at Wincanton in January on what was just his second start over obstacles. Unfancied that day, he jumped better than his better-fancied rivals until that lapse, and slipped up on the flat on his next start. He got it right at Ffos Las in March, and was a big eye-catcher when fifth at Newbury (tongue tied) on his return, taken wide before making late headway under just a hand ride. He is a point winner out of a Roselier mare and promises to improve for the step back up to this trip, while any further softening of the ground will suit better than most.
Unlike most of today's rivals, Valoroso hasn't shown his full hand to the assessor by any means, and has scope to progress much further. His jumping is sure to improve with experience, and he strikes as the type to stay ahead of the handicapper for some time, so be sure to keep him on side.
Wetherby's feature race is the Castleford Chase (14:15), and this year's renewal is a fascinating one, with Majaala heading the weights, but looking in the grip of the handicapper based on his novice exploits. He's closely matched with His Excellency on Warwick form in February, but the latter has failed to fire this season, and is a tricky customer who always flashes his tail, and can look less than genuine as a result. Pepite Rose is well treated on the pick of her efforts, but that has come over further than two miles, and on better ground than she'll encounter today. The eye is inexorably drawn to King of The Wolds, a raw novice who the formbook tells us beat the poor and regressive Flichity over a staying trip at Fakenham last time. Such bare facts can be misleading, though, and there are reasons to be very sweet on Malcolm Jefferson's charge here.
King of The Wolds, despite that Fakenham win, is no slowcoach, and this enthusiastic front runner ought to benefit from a drop to the minimum trip after that bloodless success, made easier by the departure of chief rival Dursey Sound. He was prone to the odd error over hurdles, but already looks an assured jumper of the larger obstacles, and while he wouldn't want to get into a battle with Majaala for the early advantage, he looks more than capable of beating that rival in receipt of eighteen pounds.
Recommendations:
Back Valoroso @ [5.6] in the 15:05 Kempton (NAP)
Back King of The Wolds @ [3.3] in the 14:15 Wetherby (NB)
Thursday 26 December 2013
Casino Looks A Money Spinner
The King George and Christmas Hurdle are two huge draws at Kempton today, but as usual, you'd need to have spent the last couple of months in Timbuktu not to have heard plenty of opinions on those contests, with only heavy ground providing any reason for a last-minute rethink. The ground would sway me towards Al Ferof of a pair I flagged up in early-October, but I'm happy to let others lead as far as the big race goes.
Of more interest from my punting perspective is the closing handicap hurdle at 15:45, in which Big Casino looks a tasty price. One of the most impressive specimens on show when Nigel Twiston-Davies opened his doors to the media a few days prior to Cheltenham's Open Meeting, the son of Court Cave, like many from the yard, was a bitter disappointment at Prestbury Park, but several of those who ran poorly that weekend have bounced back, and it should pay to ignore that effort.
Big Casino was an impressive bumper winner on debut for Keiran Burke (still Burke's only success in that sphere), and got back on track on his first start for the Naunton handler at Carlisle in October, beating subsequent winner Talkin Sence with plenty to spare. It wasn't a sharp rise in the weights which caused him to flop next time, where he simply never travelled, and the fact that the yard had just one placed runner from fifteen runners at the November meeting is enough to suggest that something, however minor, was amiss. The stable did much better at the International, bagging both races, and seeing all but one of the runners return to unsaddle in the winners' enclosure, which augurs well for the immediate future. Thoroughly unexposed after just a handful of hurdles outings, and with the physique to improve a fair bit further, the Casino may well be paying out today.
At Wetherby, another horse who can bounce back from a disappointing effort is Mister Grez, who gave Dan Skelton his first winner as a trainer at Ffos Las in October before running a stormer at Cheltenham later that month. The decision to go to the well a third time in quick succession at Sandown backfired, but Skelton, who has proved a revelation since that initial success, has sensibly rested the gelding since that outing, and he's been found a very winnable opportunity in the 14:55 contest, in which most of his rivals look handicapped to the hilt.
Mister Grez took forever to get off the mark for Francois Belmont, his sole success for that yard coming on his thenty-third and final run in France. He immediately looked an improved performer when scoring on his UK debut, and his fourth behind Balthazar King at Cheltenham was a taking effort in what was a very competitive race. He shaped as if not quite staying the stiff three miles there, and this shorter trip should prove ideal. With Sandown easily forgiven, it looks likely to be another payday for the Skelton boys, fresh from that thrilling Ladbroke Hurdle win at the weekend.
Recommendations:
Back Mister Grez @ [5.8] in the 14:55 Wetherby (NB)
Back Big Casino @ [20.0] in the 15:45 Kempton (NAP)
Of more interest from my punting perspective is the closing handicap hurdle at 15:45, in which Big Casino looks a tasty price. One of the most impressive specimens on show when Nigel Twiston-Davies opened his doors to the media a few days prior to Cheltenham's Open Meeting, the son of Court Cave, like many from the yard, was a bitter disappointment at Prestbury Park, but several of those who ran poorly that weekend have bounced back, and it should pay to ignore that effort.
Big Casino was an impressive bumper winner on debut for Keiran Burke (still Burke's only success in that sphere), and got back on track on his first start for the Naunton handler at Carlisle in October, beating subsequent winner Talkin Sence with plenty to spare. It wasn't a sharp rise in the weights which caused him to flop next time, where he simply never travelled, and the fact that the yard had just one placed runner from fifteen runners at the November meeting is enough to suggest that something, however minor, was amiss. The stable did much better at the International, bagging both races, and seeing all but one of the runners return to unsaddle in the winners' enclosure, which augurs well for the immediate future. Thoroughly unexposed after just a handful of hurdles outings, and with the physique to improve a fair bit further, the Casino may well be paying out today.
At Wetherby, another horse who can bounce back from a disappointing effort is Mister Grez, who gave Dan Skelton his first winner as a trainer at Ffos Las in October before running a stormer at Cheltenham later that month. The decision to go to the well a third time in quick succession at Sandown backfired, but Skelton, who has proved a revelation since that initial success, has sensibly rested the gelding since that outing, and he's been found a very winnable opportunity in the 14:55 contest, in which most of his rivals look handicapped to the hilt.
Mister Grez took forever to get off the mark for Francois Belmont, his sole success for that yard coming on his thenty-third and final run in France. He immediately looked an improved performer when scoring on his UK debut, and his fourth behind Balthazar King at Cheltenham was a taking effort in what was a very competitive race. He shaped as if not quite staying the stiff three miles there, and this shorter trip should prove ideal. With Sandown easily forgiven, it looks likely to be another payday for the Skelton boys, fresh from that thrilling Ladbroke Hurdle win at the weekend.
Recommendations:
Back Mister Grez @ [5.8] in the 14:55 Wetherby (NB)
Back Big Casino @ [20.0] in the 15:45 Kempton (NAP)
Friday 20 December 2013
Battler Raya Can Star At Ascot
Ascot's pre-Christmas meeting is always something to provide seasonal cheer, even if the prospect of a blank midweek filled with brussels sprouts, marauding in-laws and dry turkey doesn't, so leave the bah-humbugging for next week, and put on your party hats.
The novices' handicap at 13:30 has already seen strong support for Rio de Sivola, for whom Tony McCoy seems a positive booking, and he's undoubtedly a worthy favourite having made all to beat a subsequent winner last time. He should again get his way up front, and ought to go well, but this looks tougher, and I'm taken by the prospects of Bellenos, who can also race handily and caught the eye at Doncaster on his debut for Dan Skelton last month. On that occasion he jumped soundly up with the pace for a long way, and wasn't knocked about when his chance had gone. He should prove sharper for that first run since leaving Guillaume Macaire (off more than a year in the interim), and the drop in trip should be a positive. I wouldn't want to see him get into a destructive battle with the market leader, but fluency and ability to travel strongly ought to see him in with a major chance, especially with the pick of his French form suggesting he's on a very fair mark. He looks overpriced at around 8/1.
The Grade 2 chase for novices at 14:35 is a cracker despite the defection of Sergeant Dick, and it's hard to find the favourite, let alone the winner. Unlike some, I wasn't entirely taken by Mr Mole's chase debut success, for all he did well to overhaul a last-fence deficit, and he's proved on several occasions that he isn't one for maximum faith, particularly with deteriorating conditions raising further doubts. Fox Appeal is the one to beat on the evidence of collateral form, having looked sure to beat the exciting Wonderful Charm at Wincanton last time, only to be overhauled in the dying strides. He should go well, but it's possible that Raya Star has been underestimated in the market, and Alan King's charge, while perhaps lacking the scope of the top pair, is a rock-solid proposition. He is proven both on the going and at the track, where his only defeat in 3 runs has come at the hands of Oscar Whisky. He lacked the turn of foot needed to go with Dodging Bullets at Cheltenham last time, but should relish this stiffer test, and is a renowned battler, something which will stand him in good stead against flashier rivals.
The staying handicap hurdle at 15:10 has cut up already, and plenty of the runners have questions to answer. The most solid performer appears to be Kilmurvy, for all he blotted his copybook by ducking out at Sandown last month. That blip is sandwiched by a pair of creditable efforts, notably when racing too close to an overly strong pace at Newbury last time, and it should pay to forgive him that uncharacteristic lapse. Both his hurdles successes have come this way round with Nick Sholfield riding, and with no problems regarding underfoot conditions, he can get back to winning ways. There may be more to come from the likeable Polly Peachum, who did us a favour at Kempton in the spring, but the form of that contest hasn't worked out, and she struggled a couple of times on soft ground last winter.
Recommendations:
All at Ascot
Back Bellenos @ [8.6] in the 13:30
Back Raya Star @ [4.0] in the 14:35 (NAP)
Back Kilmurvy @ [6.6] in the 15:10 (NB)
The novices' handicap at 13:30 has already seen strong support for Rio de Sivola, for whom Tony McCoy seems a positive booking, and he's undoubtedly a worthy favourite having made all to beat a subsequent winner last time. He should again get his way up front, and ought to go well, but this looks tougher, and I'm taken by the prospects of Bellenos, who can also race handily and caught the eye at Doncaster on his debut for Dan Skelton last month. On that occasion he jumped soundly up with the pace for a long way, and wasn't knocked about when his chance had gone. He should prove sharper for that first run since leaving Guillaume Macaire (off more than a year in the interim), and the drop in trip should be a positive. I wouldn't want to see him get into a destructive battle with the market leader, but fluency and ability to travel strongly ought to see him in with a major chance, especially with the pick of his French form suggesting he's on a very fair mark. He looks overpriced at around 8/1.
The Grade 2 chase for novices at 14:35 is a cracker despite the defection of Sergeant Dick, and it's hard to find the favourite, let alone the winner. Unlike some, I wasn't entirely taken by Mr Mole's chase debut success, for all he did well to overhaul a last-fence deficit, and he's proved on several occasions that he isn't one for maximum faith, particularly with deteriorating conditions raising further doubts. Fox Appeal is the one to beat on the evidence of collateral form, having looked sure to beat the exciting Wonderful Charm at Wincanton last time, only to be overhauled in the dying strides. He should go well, but it's possible that Raya Star has been underestimated in the market, and Alan King's charge, while perhaps lacking the scope of the top pair, is a rock-solid proposition. He is proven both on the going and at the track, where his only defeat in 3 runs has come at the hands of Oscar Whisky. He lacked the turn of foot needed to go with Dodging Bullets at Cheltenham last time, but should relish this stiffer test, and is a renowned battler, something which will stand him in good stead against flashier rivals.
The staying handicap hurdle at 15:10 has cut up already, and plenty of the runners have questions to answer. The most solid performer appears to be Kilmurvy, for all he blotted his copybook by ducking out at Sandown last month. That blip is sandwiched by a pair of creditable efforts, notably when racing too close to an overly strong pace at Newbury last time, and it should pay to forgive him that uncharacteristic lapse. Both his hurdles successes have come this way round with Nick Sholfield riding, and with no problems regarding underfoot conditions, he can get back to winning ways. There may be more to come from the likeable Polly Peachum, who did us a favour at Kempton in the spring, but the form of that contest hasn't worked out, and she struggled a couple of times on soft ground last winter.
Recommendations:
All at Ascot
Back Bellenos @ [8.6] in the 13:30
Back Raya Star @ [4.0] in the 14:35 (NAP)
Back Kilmurvy @ [6.6] in the 15:10 (NB)
Sunday 15 December 2013
Sun Can Shine at Southwell
Best bet on Sunday's low-key card at Southwell on Sunday comes in the very first race, where Tom Symonds saddles recent C&D second Trojan Sun. The rangy son of Kayf Tara had already shown his ability to act round the track when winning over hurdles on his sole previous visit, and a defeat at the hands of the progressive Toby Lerone was no disgrace. The winner followed up next time, and was strongly fancied in the Grand Sefton Chase at Aintree last time, only to capsize. With Symonds sending out a trio of winners from his last six runners, it's clear that the yard is in good order, and a repeat of his latest effort may suffice for Trojan Sun, notwithstanding the competitive look of this contest.
There are several others in the field with claims, and Roc d'Apsis in particular will be popular, particularly as he was contesting Grade 2 contests over hurdles not so long ago. He's gone with ample promise in 2 starst over fences, but is still a maiden, and the Slad handler's record of 3 winners from 59 runners since the start of last month highlights why his is a very frustrating yard to follow.
It may prove to be a red-letter day for the Symonds yard, with Midnight Belle, Kaki de La Pree and Avoca Promise all holding solid claims for the yard, and punters could do worse than include them in one of those fancy multiple bets designed to pay for Christmas.
For my second bet, though, I'm looking to bookend the card by selecting Airmen's Friend to beat some ropey opposition in the three-mile handicap hurdle at 15:35. Charlie Mann's charge has had his problems since making the frame three times over hurdles in 2011, but he's lightly raced for one his age, and looked to have plenty more to offer when belatedly off the mark in a handicap chase at Market Rasen last June. He backed that up with a pair of solid placed efforts before again meeting with a setback, but returned over hurdles at Taunton recently looking as good as ever, if understandably rusty. With that race sure to have put an edge on his, he can bolster his trainer's impressive track record.
Opposition is thin on the ground, with the pair feared most being dour stayers Iconic Rose and Realta Mo Chroi. The latter was a bet for me 2 starts back, and remains capable of better, but the way she hung under pressure at Ludlow last time was off-putting, and she has a little to prove in terms of temperament, for all headgear may simply be what she needs. She'll put it together at some point, but I'd rather it wasn't today!
Recommendations:
Both at Southwell
Back Trojan Sun @ [5.0] in the 12:25 (NAP)
Back Airmen's Friend @ [4.9] in the 15:35 (NB)
There are several others in the field with claims, and Roc d'Apsis in particular will be popular, particularly as he was contesting Grade 2 contests over hurdles not so long ago. He's gone with ample promise in 2 starst over fences, but is still a maiden, and the Slad handler's record of 3 winners from 59 runners since the start of last month highlights why his is a very frustrating yard to follow.
It may prove to be a red-letter day for the Symonds yard, with Midnight Belle, Kaki de La Pree and Avoca Promise all holding solid claims for the yard, and punters could do worse than include them in one of those fancy multiple bets designed to pay for Christmas.
For my second bet, though, I'm looking to bookend the card by selecting Airmen's Friend to beat some ropey opposition in the three-mile handicap hurdle at 15:35. Charlie Mann's charge has had his problems since making the frame three times over hurdles in 2011, but he's lightly raced for one his age, and looked to have plenty more to offer when belatedly off the mark in a handicap chase at Market Rasen last June. He backed that up with a pair of solid placed efforts before again meeting with a setback, but returned over hurdles at Taunton recently looking as good as ever, if understandably rusty. With that race sure to have put an edge on his, he can bolster his trainer's impressive track record.
Opposition is thin on the ground, with the pair feared most being dour stayers Iconic Rose and Realta Mo Chroi. The latter was a bet for me 2 starts back, and remains capable of better, but the way she hung under pressure at Ludlow last time was off-putting, and she has a little to prove in terms of temperament, for all headgear may simply be what she needs. She'll put it together at some point, but I'd rather it wasn't today!
Recommendations:
Both at Southwell
Back Trojan Sun @ [5.0] in the 12:25 (NAP)
Back Airmen's Friend @ [4.9] in the 15:35 (NB)
Friday 13 December 2013
Crapper Can Leave Backers Flush
It's not often that horses are able to run to form at all 3 of Cheltenham's pre-Christmas meetings, but the vagaries of the weather have plenty to do with that, with October's meeting often run on firmish ground before muddy conditions prevail later in the year. That hasn't been the case this year, with similar going conditions in evidence for all 3 meetings. That's good news for supporters of Johns Spirit in tomorrow's big race, but he's not the only one aiming for a hat-trick of wins, and the best bet on Friday is the criminally undervalued Thomas Crapper, who lines up for the Citipost Handicap Hurdle at 15.15.
Robin Dickin's gelding belied the poor form of his yard to score with comfort in October, and proved that wasn't a flash in the pan (geddit?)when following up last month, allowed to go off at an inflated price presumably due to the unfashionable status of his stable rather than a reading of the formbook. He didn't win his last race by such a clear margin, but could be called the winner some way out only to idle markedly after kicking for home on the turn. Responding gamely when joined after the last by Angles Hill, he looked to hold on with a bit to spare. That win came over a shorter trip, but he promises to stay three miles, and remains on a perfectly reasonable mark. The form of that win looked solid at the time, and has proved so, with three of the seven to have raced since winning, and another pair running at least as well in defeat. Charlie Poste may have been guilty of pressing the button too soon on Thomas Crapper last time, but that merely disguised his superiority, and he's likely to keep this strong traveller in check for a little longer today. Angles Hill reopposes, but is only marginally better off, albeit with Conor Shoemark now taking over, and the conditional's claim is certainly value at present. That said, I think he'll struggle to reverse the placings.
The EBF novice hurdle at 15.45 is a cracking contest, with a trio of exciting prospects going head to head. Garde la Victoire and Doctor Harper are defending unbeaten records, and merit maximum respect, but it would be very dangerous to underestimate Ballyalton, who has also won his last 2, and takes up his engagement here in preference to a more ambitious tilt at Saturday's Relkeel Hurdle. Ian Williams has been in fine form for some time, and his charge has already lowered the colours of the exciting Oscar Rock. That win came over a much longer trip, but he didn't look at all short of gears when running away with a two-mile event at Uttoxeter on his previous outing, and has the strongest form on offer. The likelihood of a contested pace will bring his undoubted stamina into play, and he looks overpriced at the odds currently on offer.
Recommendations:
Both at Cheltenham
Back Thomas Crapper @ [6.8] in the 15:15 (NAP)
Back Ballyalton @ [4.4] in the 15:45 (NB)
Robin Dickin's gelding belied the poor form of his yard to score with comfort in October, and proved that wasn't a flash in the pan (geddit?)when following up last month, allowed to go off at an inflated price presumably due to the unfashionable status of his stable rather than a reading of the formbook. He didn't win his last race by such a clear margin, but could be called the winner some way out only to idle markedly after kicking for home on the turn. Responding gamely when joined after the last by Angles Hill, he looked to hold on with a bit to spare. That win came over a shorter trip, but he promises to stay three miles, and remains on a perfectly reasonable mark. The form of that win looked solid at the time, and has proved so, with three of the seven to have raced since winning, and another pair running at least as well in defeat. Charlie Poste may have been guilty of pressing the button too soon on Thomas Crapper last time, but that merely disguised his superiority, and he's likely to keep this strong traveller in check for a little longer today. Angles Hill reopposes, but is only marginally better off, albeit with Conor Shoemark now taking over, and the conditional's claim is certainly value at present. That said, I think he'll struggle to reverse the placings.
The EBF novice hurdle at 15.45 is a cracking contest, with a trio of exciting prospects going head to head. Garde la Victoire and Doctor Harper are defending unbeaten records, and merit maximum respect, but it would be very dangerous to underestimate Ballyalton, who has also won his last 2, and takes up his engagement here in preference to a more ambitious tilt at Saturday's Relkeel Hurdle. Ian Williams has been in fine form for some time, and his charge has already lowered the colours of the exciting Oscar Rock. That win came over a much longer trip, but he didn't look at all short of gears when running away with a two-mile event at Uttoxeter on his previous outing, and has the strongest form on offer. The likelihood of a contested pace will bring his undoubted stamina into play, and he looks overpriced at the odds currently on offer.
Recommendations:
Both at Cheltenham
Back Thomas Crapper @ [6.8] in the 15:15 (NAP)
Back Ballyalton @ [4.4] in the 15:45 (NB)
Thursday 12 December 2013
Don't Cross Chris
Feature race on Thursday is the Peterborough Chase, a contest which has become somewhat lost in the calendar in recent years, but plans to move it back to a weekend slot next year promise to revitalise a race which has been won by both Champion Chase and Gold Cup heroes of yesteryear. The good news for Huntingdon's executive is that this year's renewal is something of a belter, with Riverside Theatre and Captain Chris attempting to recapture former glories, and the exciting Module attempting to make his mark for the younger generation.
My vote lies squarely with Captain Chris, a horse who is patently at his very best with the conditions he faces today. He ran a stormer in last year's King George when his speed got him past Long Run before superior stamina won the day for the latter, and his only blip when racing right handed is when he memorably unseated the hapless Richard Johnson when in the process of winning the Haldon Gold Cup in 2011. Despite making the frame in 2 King Georges and a Punchestown Gold Cup, he clearly finds 3m the limit of his stamina, and he's always been at his most comfortable over this sort of trip.
Captain Chris has a stiff task on paper to beat Riverside Theatre, but there must be questions about whether the latter is the force of old, and he's not looked the same since Barry Geraghty strained every sinew to lift him home in the 2012 Ryanair; always a rather fragile sort, that memorable success seems to have left an indelible mark, and while connections have presumably left no stone unturned in getting him back on song, he's not a horse I could touch at present.
Champion Court is another to consider, having travelled notably well in last year's King George, but he could finish only seventh in the Paddy Power last time despite tremendous confidence from his yard. Martin Keighley has put up an original excuse in "tummy ache" for that eclipse, but this talented performer is now becoming reminiscent of an errant schoolboy who is going through a series of excuses for turning up without his homework. Module may well have the requisite scope to go well, but formlines taken through Cue Card are potentially dangerous, and the form of the Tom George is a major concern.
Next best on the day comes in much less exalted company at Kempton, but the claims of Medam are crystal clear in the opener, and she is twice the price I made her when compiling the card. Shaun Harris' mare is modest at best, but unlike many of her rivals, she wins when the opportunity arises, and has served notice that her time is near with excellent efforts on her last couple of starts. Beaten two noses over six furlongs at Wolverhampton on her penultimate outing, she went for home too soon over the extended seven there last time, and was reeled back after trading odds on in the run. She's a hold-up type, but has some tactical speed, and isn't reliant on a strong pace, as she showed last time. If Shirley Teasdale can keep her out of trouble from the inside stall, and produce her at the right moment then she should be able to swoop past some out-of-form rivals.
Recommendations:
Back Captain Chris @ [5.3] in the 14:00 Huntingdon (NAP)
Back Medam @ [6.8] in the 15:50 Kempton (NB)
My vote lies squarely with Captain Chris, a horse who is patently at his very best with the conditions he faces today. He ran a stormer in last year's King George when his speed got him past Long Run before superior stamina won the day for the latter, and his only blip when racing right handed is when he memorably unseated the hapless Richard Johnson when in the process of winning the Haldon Gold Cup in 2011. Despite making the frame in 2 King Georges and a Punchestown Gold Cup, he clearly finds 3m the limit of his stamina, and he's always been at his most comfortable over this sort of trip.
Captain Chris has a stiff task on paper to beat Riverside Theatre, but there must be questions about whether the latter is the force of old, and he's not looked the same since Barry Geraghty strained every sinew to lift him home in the 2012 Ryanair; always a rather fragile sort, that memorable success seems to have left an indelible mark, and while connections have presumably left no stone unturned in getting him back on song, he's not a horse I could touch at present.
Champion Court is another to consider, having travelled notably well in last year's King George, but he could finish only seventh in the Paddy Power last time despite tremendous confidence from his yard. Martin Keighley has put up an original excuse in "tummy ache" for that eclipse, but this talented performer is now becoming reminiscent of an errant schoolboy who is going through a series of excuses for turning up without his homework. Module may well have the requisite scope to go well, but formlines taken through Cue Card are potentially dangerous, and the form of the Tom George is a major concern.
Next best on the day comes in much less exalted company at Kempton, but the claims of Medam are crystal clear in the opener, and she is twice the price I made her when compiling the card. Shaun Harris' mare is modest at best, but unlike many of her rivals, she wins when the opportunity arises, and has served notice that her time is near with excellent efforts on her last couple of starts. Beaten two noses over six furlongs at Wolverhampton on her penultimate outing, she went for home too soon over the extended seven there last time, and was reeled back after trading odds on in the run. She's a hold-up type, but has some tactical speed, and isn't reliant on a strong pace, as she showed last time. If Shirley Teasdale can keep her out of trouble from the inside stall, and produce her at the right moment then she should be able to swoop past some out-of-form rivals.
Recommendations:
Back Captain Chris @ [5.3] in the 14:00 Huntingdon (NAP)
Back Medam @ [6.8] in the 15:50 Kempton (NB)
Sunday 8 December 2013
Imperial Can Leather Kelso Rivals
In terms of mid-winter betting propositions, there are few better than those novice chasers who quickly show that they have the all-round technique to deal with a transition to handicaps, where they tend to meet fully exposed rivals at a time when the official assessor hasn't had a chance to get to grips with them, and natural progression often means they can be backed again and again.
One such sure-footed rookie is the Michael Smith-trained Imperial Vic, who has jumped with alacrity in a trio of starts over fences, winning at Musselburgh before making a subsequent winner pull out all the stops at this track next time. He showed that he was able to take on classier rivals when third to Vintage Star and Buddy Bolero at Carlisle last time, outjumping more experienced rivals before showing a most willing attitude to rally strongly after being headed between the last two fences. Imperial Vic's last 2 efforts have suggested both a big heart and untapped reserves of stamina, so the step up to four miles against lesser rivals should suit ideally, and this likeable sort is taken to make every yard. Odds of around 9/4 may seem on the skinny side for what appears a competitive event, but he really does stick out like a sore thumb, and would appeal at much shorter odds.
In the previous contest, I'm hopeful to see further signs of revival from the yard of George Charlton. George and his father Alistair have a well-earned reputation as outstanding stockmen, with Ida's Delight and Lord Dorcet both placed at the Cheltenham Festival. In recent years, financial reality has meant that the future stars have been sold off, with Bold Bishop and Tidal Bay both picked up for pennies by George before being sold to leave the yard for a handsome profit, and it's been left to Knockara Beau to fly the flag for the Mickley Grange stable. Times have certainly been hard in terms of winners, but the few runners sent out this autumn have all run well, with Knockara Beau winning at Kelso and running a huge race at Cheltenham last month, and Bogside is taken to go close off an attractive handicap mark.
I'm hoping that the selection drifts further from a fair morning price, as his profile isn't one which will tempt many, and there are a couple of unexposed sorts here in the shape of Raven's Tower and Gunner Lindley. The former won easily at Plumpton last time, but beat nothing and is not exactly thrown in after a hefty rise for that success, while the claims of Gunner Lindley are predicated on his Flat form, and he's yet to convince that he has the requisite stamina for hurdles. That pair are respected, but Bogside is a solid alternative, having made the frame on all but one of his eight previous visits to the track, winning twice. His tendency to make the odd mistake is well established, but he jumped and travelled fluently when third to subsequent winner Turtle Watch over C&D last month, and is now a couple of pounds lower in the weights. A repeat of that effort will see him placed at worst.
Recommendations:
Both at Kelso
Back Bogside to place @ [3.95] in the 13:25 (NB)
Back Imperial Vic @ [3.35] in the 13:55 (NAP)
One such sure-footed rookie is the Michael Smith-trained Imperial Vic, who has jumped with alacrity in a trio of starts over fences, winning at Musselburgh before making a subsequent winner pull out all the stops at this track next time. He showed that he was able to take on classier rivals when third to Vintage Star and Buddy Bolero at Carlisle last time, outjumping more experienced rivals before showing a most willing attitude to rally strongly after being headed between the last two fences. Imperial Vic's last 2 efforts have suggested both a big heart and untapped reserves of stamina, so the step up to four miles against lesser rivals should suit ideally, and this likeable sort is taken to make every yard. Odds of around 9/4 may seem on the skinny side for what appears a competitive event, but he really does stick out like a sore thumb, and would appeal at much shorter odds.
In the previous contest, I'm hopeful to see further signs of revival from the yard of George Charlton. George and his father Alistair have a well-earned reputation as outstanding stockmen, with Ida's Delight and Lord Dorcet both placed at the Cheltenham Festival. In recent years, financial reality has meant that the future stars have been sold off, with Bold Bishop and Tidal Bay both picked up for pennies by George before being sold to leave the yard for a handsome profit, and it's been left to Knockara Beau to fly the flag for the Mickley Grange stable. Times have certainly been hard in terms of winners, but the few runners sent out this autumn have all run well, with Knockara Beau winning at Kelso and running a huge race at Cheltenham last month, and Bogside is taken to go close off an attractive handicap mark.
I'm hoping that the selection drifts further from a fair morning price, as his profile isn't one which will tempt many, and there are a couple of unexposed sorts here in the shape of Raven's Tower and Gunner Lindley. The former won easily at Plumpton last time, but beat nothing and is not exactly thrown in after a hefty rise for that success, while the claims of Gunner Lindley are predicated on his Flat form, and he's yet to convince that he has the requisite stamina for hurdles. That pair are respected, but Bogside is a solid alternative, having made the frame on all but one of his eight previous visits to the track, winning twice. His tendency to make the odd mistake is well established, but he jumped and travelled fluently when third to subsequent winner Turtle Watch over C&D last month, and is now a couple of pounds lower in the weights. A repeat of that effort will see him placed at worst.
Recommendations:
Both at Kelso
Back Bogside to place @ [3.95] in the 13:25 (NB)
Back Imperial Vic @ [3.35] in the 13:55 (NAP)
Wednesday 4 December 2013
Phoenix Can Fly For New Yard
"Keep yourself in the best company, and your horses in the worst" is an adage coined by Admiral Rous, the father of handicapping, and has served many successful trainers well, with the Hon George Lambton espousing it in his wonderful memoir Men And Horses I Have Known, while it's no surprise to hear that throwback to the good old days, Sir Mark Prescott, also bringing the old saying back to life. It's a lot easier to keep yourself in the best company if you happen to an admiral or a baronet, but let's not quibble. The crux of the maxim is that trainers should look to maximise what they have by finding the weakest opportunities, and is probably why bookmakers cry such bitter tears when five out of six favourites win at a gaff track fixture attracting thirty-odd runners and as many spectators.
As punters, especially those who enjoy solving a tricky puzzle, it's easy to head to the most competitive handicap of the day for a bet, and while the feeling of accomplishment in finding the Hennessy winner (well done, Mr Cleary) is certainly greater than spotting the winner of the 0-85 handicap chase at Towcester, the feeling of the small wad of cash in your back pocket is much the same. This, you may have guessed, is my rather clumsy way of suggesting a bet in a race which in itself doesn't set the pulse racing. The race in question is a mares handicap hurdle at Ludlow, and the standout bet is Flying Phoenix.
The long and short of it is that this isn't a competitive race, with only a trio having shown form good enough to win an ordinary handicap of late, and one of those, Pass The Dime coming through as a non-runner as I type. Buxom is interesting, with her yard among the winners all through the autumn, and scoring again with a rare runner at Sedgefield yesterday. She is dangerous to dismiss, but the bare form of her recent Huntingdon win lacks substance, and she's got a worryingly inconsistent profile.
Step forward Flying Phoenix, who has run to form on seven of her last eight starts over timber for Dai Burchell, and who has recently been snappped up by the shrewd Michael Blake. The problem punters have with a horse like her is that she's got nothing hidden - unlikely to improve on previous efforts, and not one to have dreams of big-race success about, she's not the type anyone will get carried away with, but what she does have is a much more solid profile than most of her rivals, and a more realistic handicap mark than the other obvious contender. That should be enough to make her a clear favourite, but such a cinderella profile will probably ensure her price remains too big.
At Lingfield, I must admit to being sweet on the chances of one who blows the original adage out of the water, and it's possible that I'm not taking a sharp rise in class into the equation, but I think course specialist Picansort can land a competitive 5f handicap at 13:00. Peter Crate's gelding does most of his racing a couple of rungs down the ladder, but he's a strong travelling hold-up sort who may well improve for tracking a faster pace, and his form figures for this tricky track and trip are impressive - he's never been out of the frame, and has won four of his last five in similar style, swooping late in a way which makes his margin of superiority hard to pin down. With only one other C&D winner in the entire contest, it must be worth chancing his trackcraft against the proven class of a few others in the contest, and there's plenty of juice in his price.
Recommendations:
Back Flying Phoenix @ [3.25] in the 13:40 Ludlow (NAP)
Back Picansort @ [11.0] in the 13:00 Lingfield (NB)
As punters, especially those who enjoy solving a tricky puzzle, it's easy to head to the most competitive handicap of the day for a bet, and while the feeling of accomplishment in finding the Hennessy winner (well done, Mr Cleary) is certainly greater than spotting the winner of the 0-85 handicap chase at Towcester, the feeling of the small wad of cash in your back pocket is much the same. This, you may have guessed, is my rather clumsy way of suggesting a bet in a race which in itself doesn't set the pulse racing. The race in question is a mares handicap hurdle at Ludlow, and the standout bet is Flying Phoenix.
The long and short of it is that this isn't a competitive race, with only a trio having shown form good enough to win an ordinary handicap of late, and one of those, Pass The Dime coming through as a non-runner as I type. Buxom is interesting, with her yard among the winners all through the autumn, and scoring again with a rare runner at Sedgefield yesterday. She is dangerous to dismiss, but the bare form of her recent Huntingdon win lacks substance, and she's got a worryingly inconsistent profile.
Step forward Flying Phoenix, who has run to form on seven of her last eight starts over timber for Dai Burchell, and who has recently been snappped up by the shrewd Michael Blake. The problem punters have with a horse like her is that she's got nothing hidden - unlikely to improve on previous efforts, and not one to have dreams of big-race success about, she's not the type anyone will get carried away with, but what she does have is a much more solid profile than most of her rivals, and a more realistic handicap mark than the other obvious contender. That should be enough to make her a clear favourite, but such a cinderella profile will probably ensure her price remains too big.
At Lingfield, I must admit to being sweet on the chances of one who blows the original adage out of the water, and it's possible that I'm not taking a sharp rise in class into the equation, but I think course specialist Picansort can land a competitive 5f handicap at 13:00. Peter Crate's gelding does most of his racing a couple of rungs down the ladder, but he's a strong travelling hold-up sort who may well improve for tracking a faster pace, and his form figures for this tricky track and trip are impressive - he's never been out of the frame, and has won four of his last five in similar style, swooping late in a way which makes his margin of superiority hard to pin down. With only one other C&D winner in the entire contest, it must be worth chancing his trackcraft against the proven class of a few others in the contest, and there's plenty of juice in his price.
Recommendations:
Back Flying Phoenix @ [3.25] in the 13:40 Ludlow (NAP)
Back Picansort @ [11.0] in the 13:00 Lingfield (NB)
Sunday 1 December 2013
Mwaleshi Can Signal Smith Revival
The focus on Sunday will be on the high-profile Fairyhouse card which features a clutch of Grade 1 contests, but there is still some interest in UK cards at Carlisle and Leicester, and it's at the former that the best punting opportunities seem to lie.
Nicky Richards' Eduard will be a warm order in the novice chase at 12:50, and many believe he would have beaten Pendra but for sprwaling on landing at the second last here on his chasing debut. The truth of the matter was that the race was just beginning to take shape at the point where Eduard's mistake happened, and with neither of the big two asked for maximum effort, the result was very much in the balance. One aspect of that contest which has been forgotten is how well the outsider Jet Master was travelling when making his only mistake of the race and unseating at the third last, and that one has since been beaten in a handicap, albeit running well. In addition, the fast-finishing third that day was soundly beaten at Bangor yesterday. It's clear that the favourite is a decent prospect, but it would be presumptuous to elevate him to the top tier of novices on such flimsy evidence.
Eduard's novice hurdle form last year marked him down as one to keep on side as a chaser, with a third to Melodic Rendezvous at Cheltenham the highlight, but he was beaten by Mwaleshi when the pair met in a Grade 2 novice at Kelso in March, and Sue Smith's charge has not really been given the recognition he deserves for that win. He was conceding weight to Eduard that day, and may again get the jump on his market rival today, particularly as Yesyoucan, the other with form claims, will surely find this two-mile trip on the sharp side. It's possible he could act as a spoiler if adopting the same tactics as he did when winning at Newcastle last time, but hopefully Mwaleshi will be allowed to set his own pace up front, and if so, then there's no reason why he won't run a huge race. He's a very fair price this morning, but is likely to drift if anything given his profile is a lot less "sexy" than that of his main rival. Sue Smith has her horses in better form than the figures indicate, with a winner and three seconds yesterday suggesting that the team at Bingley are coming to the boil at the right time.
Nicky Richards may not be without cheer on his local track, even if Eduard fails to land the odds, as he has an improving handicapper on his hands in the shape of Tutchec, and the son of Turgeon can complete a hat-trick of course wins this season when contesting the 13:55. Both successes this term have come over much shorter trips, but he's given the impression that stamina is his forte, and he should have the legs of his main rivals in the early stages, particularly as his once sloppy jumping now seems a thing of the past. Harouet and Herdsman are interesting, but the pair both appeared to be in trouble before snatching victory from the jaws of defeat on their most recent outings, and are not obvious candidates to follow up on that basis. The former represents a yard which traditionally goes into hibernation in the winter months, while the latter is more interesting now tackling an extreme trip at a stiffer track, but given he hit the ceiling price on Betfair last time, he's again likely to trade much bigger in the run. Should Tutchec be clear in the straight with the otehrs toiling, it may be worth trading a little back at skinny odds, but he's an attractive enough proposition at morning prices in any case.
Recommendations:
Both at Carlisle
Back Mwaleshi @ [4.5] in the 12:50 (NAP)
Back Tutchec @ [4.8] in the 13:55 (NB)
Nicky Richards' Eduard will be a warm order in the novice chase at 12:50, and many believe he would have beaten Pendra but for sprwaling on landing at the second last here on his chasing debut. The truth of the matter was that the race was just beginning to take shape at the point where Eduard's mistake happened, and with neither of the big two asked for maximum effort, the result was very much in the balance. One aspect of that contest which has been forgotten is how well the outsider Jet Master was travelling when making his only mistake of the race and unseating at the third last, and that one has since been beaten in a handicap, albeit running well. In addition, the fast-finishing third that day was soundly beaten at Bangor yesterday. It's clear that the favourite is a decent prospect, but it would be presumptuous to elevate him to the top tier of novices on such flimsy evidence.
Eduard's novice hurdle form last year marked him down as one to keep on side as a chaser, with a third to Melodic Rendezvous at Cheltenham the highlight, but he was beaten by Mwaleshi when the pair met in a Grade 2 novice at Kelso in March, and Sue Smith's charge has not really been given the recognition he deserves for that win. He was conceding weight to Eduard that day, and may again get the jump on his market rival today, particularly as Yesyoucan, the other with form claims, will surely find this two-mile trip on the sharp side. It's possible he could act as a spoiler if adopting the same tactics as he did when winning at Newcastle last time, but hopefully Mwaleshi will be allowed to set his own pace up front, and if so, then there's no reason why he won't run a huge race. He's a very fair price this morning, but is likely to drift if anything given his profile is a lot less "sexy" than that of his main rival. Sue Smith has her horses in better form than the figures indicate, with a winner and three seconds yesterday suggesting that the team at Bingley are coming to the boil at the right time.
Nicky Richards may not be without cheer on his local track, even if Eduard fails to land the odds, as he has an improving handicapper on his hands in the shape of Tutchec, and the son of Turgeon can complete a hat-trick of course wins this season when contesting the 13:55. Both successes this term have come over much shorter trips, but he's given the impression that stamina is his forte, and he should have the legs of his main rivals in the early stages, particularly as his once sloppy jumping now seems a thing of the past. Harouet and Herdsman are interesting, but the pair both appeared to be in trouble before snatching victory from the jaws of defeat on their most recent outings, and are not obvious candidates to follow up on that basis. The former represents a yard which traditionally goes into hibernation in the winter months, while the latter is more interesting now tackling an extreme trip at a stiffer track, but given he hit the ceiling price on Betfair last time, he's again likely to trade much bigger in the run. Should Tutchec be clear in the straight with the otehrs toiling, it may be worth trading a little back at skinny odds, but he's an attractive enough proposition at morning prices in any case.
Recommendations:
Both at Carlisle
Back Mwaleshi @ [4.5] in the 12:50 (NAP)
Back Tutchec @ [4.8] in the 13:55 (NB)
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