"Keep yourself in the best company, and your horses in the worst" is an adage coined by Admiral Rous, the father of handicapping, and has served many successful trainers well, with the Hon George Lambton espousing it in his wonderful memoir Men And Horses I Have Known, while it's no surprise to hear that throwback to the good old days, Sir Mark Prescott, also bringing the old saying back to life. It's a lot easier to keep yourself in the best company if you happen to an admiral or a baronet, but let's not quibble. The crux of the maxim is that trainers should look to maximise what they have by finding the weakest opportunities, and is probably why bookmakers cry such bitter tears when five out of six favourites win at a gaff track fixture attracting thirty-odd runners and as many spectators.
As punters, especially those who enjoy solving a tricky puzzle, it's easy to head to the most competitive handicap of the day for a bet, and while the feeling of accomplishment in finding the Hennessy winner (well done, Mr Cleary) is certainly greater than spotting the winner of the 0-85 handicap chase at Towcester, the feeling of the small wad of cash in your back pocket is much the same. This, you may have guessed, is my rather clumsy way of suggesting a bet in a race which in itself doesn't set the pulse racing. The race in question is a mares handicap hurdle at Ludlow, and the standout bet is Flying Phoenix.
The long and short of it is that this isn't a competitive race, with only a trio having shown form good enough to win an ordinary handicap of late, and one of those, Pass The Dime coming through as a non-runner as I type. Buxom is interesting, with her yard among the winners all through the autumn, and scoring again with a rare runner at Sedgefield yesterday. She is dangerous to dismiss, but the bare form of her recent Huntingdon win lacks substance, and she's got a worryingly inconsistent profile.
Step forward Flying Phoenix, who has run to form on seven of her last eight starts over timber for Dai Burchell, and who has recently been snappped up by the shrewd Michael Blake. The problem punters have with a horse like her is that she's got nothing hidden - unlikely to improve on previous efforts, and not one to have dreams of big-race success about, she's not the type anyone will get carried away with, but what she does have is a much more solid profile than most of her rivals, and a more realistic handicap mark than the other obvious contender. That should be enough to make her a clear favourite, but such a cinderella profile will probably ensure her price remains too big.
At Lingfield, I must admit to being sweet on the chances of one who blows the original adage out of the water, and it's possible that I'm not taking a sharp rise in class into the equation, but I think course specialist Picansort can land a competitive 5f handicap at 13:00. Peter Crate's gelding does most of his racing a couple of rungs down the ladder, but he's a strong travelling hold-up sort who may well improve for tracking a faster pace, and his form figures for this tricky track and trip are impressive - he's never been out of the frame, and has won four of his last five in similar style, swooping late in a way which makes his margin of superiority hard to pin down. With only one other C&D winner in the entire contest, it must be worth chancing his trackcraft against the proven class of a few others in the contest, and there's plenty of juice in his price.
Recommendations:
Back Flying Phoenix @ [3.25] in the 13:40 Ludlow (NAP)
Back Picansort @ [11.0] in the 13:00 Lingfield (NB)
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