Best bet on Monday's ultra-trappy Bath card is William Muir's Grayswood in the 16:00, the second division of a low-grade thirteen furlong handicap. It's fair to say that the son of Dalakhani hasn't lived up to early expectations, with his trainer opining that he might turn into a Derby contender before he'd set foot on a racecourse. Still a maiden after ten starts, he's certainly been disappointing, particularly on turf, but there are reasons for believing he can begin to make amends today.
Grayswood was tried in cheekpieces at Kempton last week, and put up a career-best performance in going down narrowly to the well-ridden Prospera, with several talented performers behind in that competitive 0-85 event. The most pleasing aspect of that performance was the way he rallied after being headed, as he's been a weak finisher more often than not. It's pretty safe to say that a repeat of that effort would win today, as he was facing a much better class of opponent than he does today, where he drops to lowly 0-60 company from a much-reduced turf mark.
There's the rub, of course. Grayswood hasn't yet shown the ability on turf that he has on Kempton's polytrack, and backing him to run to the same level is clearly taking a rather optimistic viewpoint. On the other hand, the handicapper has given him a big chance by dropping him markedly in the weights for his last 2 runs of this surface, and it's hard to be adamant that he won't show himself much better at some point given his limited opportunities. He is, after all, a half-brother to the smart US turf performer Ticker Tape, out of a half-sister to Racing Post Trophy winner Crowded House. His pedigree is one of a fast-ground turf performer, and he's only had one opportunity to run on a sound surface in his career to date. He was far from disgraced in a much stronger race than this at Leicester last month, and is worth sticking with from what may look an exceptionally lenient mark.
Another horse who is overpriced based on a single poor run on turf is Silver Alliance (15:30), who saw a good run of form come to an end at Windsor last month, but has been given six weeks to recover from that moderate run, and had previously run better than the bare result at Goodwood's "Glorious" meeting. That followed a brace of wins under today's much improved rider at Yarmouth in April and June.
The son of Proclamation showed he wasn't handicapped out of things at Goodwood, making rapid progress on the bridle before getting involved in a bit of barging around a furlong out, and fading as those exertions told. He's usually a strong traveller, and simply looked jaded at Windsor, so ought to be freshened up by a short break. This is a tough race, and winning won't be easy, but Silver Alliance has the tools to take a good position from a wide draw (not the negative it might be at Bath), and he looks nailed on to trade much shorter than his pre-race price. Current odds of 66/1+ are simply insulting.
While Silver Alliance appeals as a back-to-lay option in that contest, the one who they all have to beat is Appease, and easy winner of a mile maiden on his belated return at Kempton recently, and one who is open to any amount of improvement now tackling this two-furlong longer trip. A brother to Ballet Move, who won over fifteen furlongs for Andre Fabre, and out of an eleven-furlong winner, Appease is likely to step up on what he's shown to date, having had his sole juvenile outing over six furlongs. The Kempton win was thoroughly professional, and while he's got to prove himself on turf after a fairly quick turnaround, he's potentially a class apart, and is hardly a prohibitive price.
Recommendations:
All at Bath
Back Appease @ [5.4] in the 15:30 (NB)
Back Silver Alliance @ [55.0] in the 15:30 (lay stake back in running)
Back Grayswood @ [7.2] in the 15:30 (NAP)
Monday 30 September 2013
Saturday 28 September 2013
No Penance For Confessional
Saturday's best value bet comes, not at the headquarters of Flat racing, but in a big-field sprint at Haydock, where course specialist Confessional is hugely overpriced in the Betfair Supports Racing Welfare Handicap at 15:30. Tim Easterby's son of Dubawi never runs a poor race at the Newton-le-Willows venue, with his record over the minimum trip there comprising two wins and two seconds from just five runs, with the other effort a highly creditable fifth in the Temple Stakes.
Confessional again showed his liking for C&D with an impressive win earlier in the month, when always travelling exuberantly towards the fore, and able to be called the likeliest winner long before the winning line. He was pitched into the Portland under a penalty next time, but simply had no chance from a draw on the far side, with those drawn in double figures filling all but one of the first nine places. That run is simple to excuse, and a return to Haydock can see him quickly back on top. He's gone up in the weights for that latest win, but is still lower in the ratings than he was at the start of the year, and looks as good as ever. He's languishing towards the bottom of the betting ladder, and that's simply wrong, so back him win and place for a juicy return.
Another horse with a solid record at Haydock is Cheveton, who contests the six-furlong handicap at 16:05. The veteran hasn't been in much form this season, but he's been trained to peak in the autumn, and showed a lot more in the Bronze Cup at Ayr last time, when not beaten far in eighth despite being drawn on the unfavoured side. He's got a reputation as best on heavy ground, but it's much more accurate to call him a late-season specialist, with the state of the going more of an issue for others. He's often slowly away, but that wasn't the case at Ayr, and he looks capable of better now that he's found his form.
The selection may not be quite the force of old, but a BHA mark of 80 underplays his current ability, and he is poised to strike when getting a suitable set-up. There isn't much obvious pace in the contest, and a false pace is an unknown for a few of these, particularly Dungannon, who was a winner for this column at Ascot last time, but had the perfect pace scenario there, and isn't sure to get things run to suit today.
The only solid pace angle in the contest is Karl Burke's Dancheur, who needs to dominate, and did just that when winning at Hamilton last weekend. She'd normally be opposable under a penalty in a more competitive race, but there's just a chance that she can get loose here, and she will go very close if the others let her set the early fractions. That's probably a scenario which would be the selection's undoing, so it makes sense to include her as a saver, particularly with the possibility of a back-to-lay trade in prospect.
Recommendations:
Both at Haydock
Back Confessional win & place @ [24.0] & [5.2] in the 15:30 (NAP)
Back Cheveton @ [13.0] in the 16:05 (NB)
Confessional again showed his liking for C&D with an impressive win earlier in the month, when always travelling exuberantly towards the fore, and able to be called the likeliest winner long before the winning line. He was pitched into the Portland under a penalty next time, but simply had no chance from a draw on the far side, with those drawn in double figures filling all but one of the first nine places. That run is simple to excuse, and a return to Haydock can see him quickly back on top. He's gone up in the weights for that latest win, but is still lower in the ratings than he was at the start of the year, and looks as good as ever. He's languishing towards the bottom of the betting ladder, and that's simply wrong, so back him win and place for a juicy return.
Another horse with a solid record at Haydock is Cheveton, who contests the six-furlong handicap at 16:05. The veteran hasn't been in much form this season, but he's been trained to peak in the autumn, and showed a lot more in the Bronze Cup at Ayr last time, when not beaten far in eighth despite being drawn on the unfavoured side. He's got a reputation as best on heavy ground, but it's much more accurate to call him a late-season specialist, with the state of the going more of an issue for others. He's often slowly away, but that wasn't the case at Ayr, and he looks capable of better now that he's found his form.
The selection may not be quite the force of old, but a BHA mark of 80 underplays his current ability, and he is poised to strike when getting a suitable set-up. There isn't much obvious pace in the contest, and a false pace is an unknown for a few of these, particularly Dungannon, who was a winner for this column at Ascot last time, but had the perfect pace scenario there, and isn't sure to get things run to suit today.
The only solid pace angle in the contest is Karl Burke's Dancheur, who needs to dominate, and did just that when winning at Hamilton last weekend. She'd normally be opposable under a penalty in a more competitive race, but there's just a chance that she can get loose here, and she will go very close if the others let her set the early fractions. That's probably a scenario which would be the selection's undoing, so it makes sense to include her as a saver, particularly with the possibility of a back-to-lay trade in prospect.
Recommendations:
Both at Haydock
Back Confessional win & place @ [24.0] & [5.2] in the 15:30 (NAP)
Back Cheveton @ [13.0] in the 16:05 (NB)
Thursday 26 September 2013
Frankie - Do You Remember Me?
Readers of a certain vintage will remember the hook to Sister Sledge's eponymous 1985 hit. It may well be that racing's most famous Frankie has been wondering "do they remember me" at various times in the past year, with his oddly-feted comeback nearly derailed before it began, and not really gathering a full head of steam despite his gaining a welcome retainer to ride for Sheikh Joaan Al Thani. It's been thin pickings on the pattern-race front, too, with his only domestic success at the upper echelons coming in the less-that-grandly-titled "Sheila Madden's 60th Birthday Winter Hill Stakes".
Things are looking up for Mr Dettori, though, with a Group 1 win courtesy of the exciting Treve on the anniversary of his infamous écart de conduite, and corresponding dreams of Arc success, which would eradicate the painful memories of last September. He also looks to have a strong chance of gaining his first juvenile pattern success since 2011 when he rides Cable Bay for Charlie Hills in the Somerville Tattersall Stakes at 15:40 today.
Cable Bay may have shown himself short of the standard required to compete for highest honours, but he's a rock-solid performer at this level, and each of his last 3 runs has produced a performance which would beat anything achieved by any of his rivals here. That profile ought to make him a short-priced favourite, but the natural desire of the racing aficionado to rank potential over proven performance means that the likes of Championship and Silent Bullet are snapping at his heels. They are the "sexy" horses, but they still have to show that they have the same substance as the selection.
Championship is interesting, having been earmarked as Richard Hannon's main hope for the Coventry after an impressive debut, but he was well held at Royal Ascot and has plenty to prove now. Hannon has won this race in three of the last four years, but all of those winners were hardened campaigners coming off recent runs, and a Hannon juvenile reappearing after a layoff is a negative for me. Silent Bullet is unexposed, having beaten Safety Check at Haydock on just his second start. That looked a good performance, but the runner-up has shown himself to be no battler, and that win may flatter the Godolphin colt. All in all, it would be surprising if Cable Bay didn't go very close indeed, and he looks seriously overpriced at morning odds.
In the Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes at 16:15, the market is dominated by Caucus and Repeater, with the latter coming out best on Timeform figures after a good third to Times Up in the Doncaster Cup last time. A line through the winner makes him almost an identical horse to Caucus , who was a place behind Times Up in York's Lonsdale Cup on his latest outing. With David O'Meara's new recruit receiving weight from the penalised Gosden runner, he is the logical choice to win, but it's rarely that simple, and the factor which swings the verdict in favour of Caucus is his superior reliability, something which bare ratings cannot express.
Caucus' only poor run this year was when held up in a messy Goodwood Cup, but otherwise has been a model of consistency since stepped up to staying trips. On the other hand, Repeater has a pair of standout efforts on his card, and both of those have come in the Doncaster Cup. The fact that he ran the race of his life in the contest last year for Sir Mark Prescott, only to finish down the field in a Yarmouth handicap on his next outing, militates against his chances of backing up that latest effort.
Recommendations:
Both at Newmarket
Back Cable Bay @ [4.0] in the 15:40 (NAP)
Back Caucus @ [3.75] in the 16:15 (NB)
Sunday 22 September 2013
Pole Apart For Prescott
Sir Mark Prescott and Lady Fairhaven have enjoyed some good days in the trainer/owner relationship over the years, none sweeter than when Quinlan Terry landed the 1988 Cambridgeshire (a day I remember well as I'd included him and Kim Brassey's Amigo Menor in a 10p yankee, and was feeling decidedly flush, not to say smug). It's not all glamour, though, and Prescott has always been an advocate of the old saying "keep yourself in the best company, and your horses in the worst", which is an ethos which has served the veteran Newmarket handler well over the years.
Indeed, the first winner that Lady Fairhaven had after the heady Quinlan Terry days came 20 years ago last month, when Sloe Brandy landed a nine-furlong selling handicap at Hamilton off a handicap mark of just 38! A fine piece of placing, for sure. The pair pay another trip to the Scottish venue, or at least one of their horses does, when North Pole bids to enhance his trainer's remarkable strike rate north of the border in the 16:20. Since the turn of the century, the master of Heath House has sent fifty 3-y-o runners to Hamilton, with 44% of them winning, and only seven in that number out of the frame.
North Pole's credentials are strong, particularly as an improving 3-y-o against more exposed handicappers. The son of Compton Place got off the mark in a mile handicap at Brighton in August, and was unlucky to bump into a progressive sort in the shape of Pilates at Bath last time. The winner franked that form by turning her next outing into a procession, and North Pole looks fairly treated on the same mark, particularly with the prospect of further improvement on the cards. On the other hand, market rival Size appeared better than the bare result over C&D last time, but that form has been badly let down by those who finished around him since, and he looks poor value as a result.
At Plumpton, it may prove wise to forgive Midnight Lira a poor chasing debut when she lines up for her handicap debut in that sphere at 17:00. First of all, new rules regarding qualifying requirements for novice handicap chases means that it's always wise to turn a blind eye to a chasing debutant who already has a hurdles mark, and that is effectively what the handicapper does too, with many simply allowed to fiddle around in rear in order to meet the criteria for achieving that needed mark. In the case of Midnight Lira, she's bred to excel over fences, with her dam a prolific winner at staying trips, and having already produced the useful chaser Bally Legend by the same sire. Bally Legend was a winning hurdler, but improved over fences last season, and there's every chance his little sister will follow suit.
Caroline Keevil, who trains, is not one to run her chasers when not ready, and she's only had one runner in this sphere since April. That runner was Cinevator, who duly dotted up at Fontwell a few weeks ago. With the yard ticking along nicely, Midnight Lira is taken to score at attractive odds.
Recommendations:
Back North Pole @ [4.8] in the 16:20 Hamilton (NAP)
Back Midnight Lira @ [13.0] in the 17:00 Plumpton (NB)
Indeed, the first winner that Lady Fairhaven had after the heady Quinlan Terry days came 20 years ago last month, when Sloe Brandy landed a nine-furlong selling handicap at Hamilton off a handicap mark of just 38! A fine piece of placing, for sure. The pair pay another trip to the Scottish venue, or at least one of their horses does, when North Pole bids to enhance his trainer's remarkable strike rate north of the border in the 16:20. Since the turn of the century, the master of Heath House has sent fifty 3-y-o runners to Hamilton, with 44% of them winning, and only seven in that number out of the frame.
North Pole's credentials are strong, particularly as an improving 3-y-o against more exposed handicappers. The son of Compton Place got off the mark in a mile handicap at Brighton in August, and was unlucky to bump into a progressive sort in the shape of Pilates at Bath last time. The winner franked that form by turning her next outing into a procession, and North Pole looks fairly treated on the same mark, particularly with the prospect of further improvement on the cards. On the other hand, market rival Size appeared better than the bare result over C&D last time, but that form has been badly let down by those who finished around him since, and he looks poor value as a result.
At Plumpton, it may prove wise to forgive Midnight Lira a poor chasing debut when she lines up for her handicap debut in that sphere at 17:00. First of all, new rules regarding qualifying requirements for novice handicap chases means that it's always wise to turn a blind eye to a chasing debutant who already has a hurdles mark, and that is effectively what the handicapper does too, with many simply allowed to fiddle around in rear in order to meet the criteria for achieving that needed mark. In the case of Midnight Lira, she's bred to excel over fences, with her dam a prolific winner at staying trips, and having already produced the useful chaser Bally Legend by the same sire. Bally Legend was a winning hurdler, but improved over fences last season, and there's every chance his little sister will follow suit.
Caroline Keevil, who trains, is not one to run her chasers when not ready, and she's only had one runner in this sphere since April. That runner was Cinevator, who duly dotted up at Fontwell a few weeks ago. With the yard ticking along nicely, Midnight Lira is taken to score at attractive odds.
Recommendations:
Back North Pole @ [4.8] in the 16:20 Hamilton (NAP)
Back Midnight Lira @ [13.0] in the 17:00 Plumpton (NB)
Saturday 21 September 2013
Remember You? You Bet!
If subliminal thinking is the formula for picking winners, then the Ayr Gold Cup should be straightforward today, as I've been finding myself singing the annoyingly catchy "Yes Sir, I Can Boogie" against my better judgement for the last 48 hours. I also had a surprisingly vivid dream once in which a bay horse in the familiar maroon and grey silks of the late Adair Catherwood bounded up the Aintree run-in in splendid (as opposed to Spendid - one for the anoraks there) isolation, but as I'm still holding a losing docket with Keen Leader written on it, it's safe to declare that lucid dreams aren't the key to punting success, either. Baccarat for a game of soldiers, I say.
On a more prosaic note, the formbook has been rather more useful in recent times, and while the cavalry charge at 15:50 appeals to many, it's the earlier race which look eminently more solvable. The opener is a 1m nursery in which recent Doncaster Braidley is called to action again, only this time the handicapper has attempted to take revenge, and many will baulk at the 10 lb rise which James Bethell's charge has been subject to. Makes no mistake, however, he was a class apart in what looked a competitive affair at Town Moor, and with his stamina for a mile already proven prior to that rout, he can find enough improvement to follow up. The switch from Ted Durcan to Graham Lee is hardly a negative, either, and while I respect the unexposed Light Weight, Braidley looks the clear pick, and should be nearer 11/4 that current odds of 9/2.
Sharestan is the strict form pick in the Doonside Cup, and will enjoy conditions at Ayr, but he had a decidedly anticlimactic campaign at Meydan earlier this year, and needs to bounce back to win this listed contest. Media Hype and Hajras are another pair returning from absence here, which complicates matters further. First Mohican has the best recent form, but he may need further than ten furlongs now, and it may pay to take a chance on Willie The Whipper despite a disappointing showing in the Great Voltigeur. A good sixth in the Prix du Jockey Club in June, having finished second in the Criterium de Saint Cloud last autumn, there's no denying that he has the class for this contest.
While the abiding memory of the Ebor Meeting is the rain that fell from Thursday evening onwards, it should be remembered that the meeting started on going close to firm, and several horses seemed to struggle with the lively surface. That comment applies to Willie The Whipper as much as anything, and the impression he gave was that he was unable to let himself down fully. Back on easy ground today, he can prove that form all wrong.
But the best is kept to last, and the nap vote on Saturday goes to David Wachman's Remember You in the Firth of Clyde Stakes at 15:15. Neither the Timeform figures nor official ratings have her at the top of the pile, but I'd be very surprised if her latest effort, when getting within 2 lengths of the much-vaunted Great White Eagle, doesn't look a few pounds better in retrospect than it does now. I've been hugely impressed by Aidan O'Brien's record-breaking Breeze-Up purchase, and I feel there is a strong possibility that he's much better than the bare form of his Round Tower win, and by inference, Remember You may also be underrated. Back against her own sex, she can enhance her own credentials, and those of her Curragh conqueror.
Recommendations:
All at Ayr
Back Braidley @ [5.4] in the 13:30 (NB)
Back Willie The Whipper @ [7.0] in the 14:05
Back Remember You @ [6.2] in the 15:15 (NAP)
On a more prosaic note, the formbook has been rather more useful in recent times, and while the cavalry charge at 15:50 appeals to many, it's the earlier race which look eminently more solvable. The opener is a 1m nursery in which recent Doncaster Braidley is called to action again, only this time the handicapper has attempted to take revenge, and many will baulk at the 10 lb rise which James Bethell's charge has been subject to. Makes no mistake, however, he was a class apart in what looked a competitive affair at Town Moor, and with his stamina for a mile already proven prior to that rout, he can find enough improvement to follow up. The switch from Ted Durcan to Graham Lee is hardly a negative, either, and while I respect the unexposed Light Weight, Braidley looks the clear pick, and should be nearer 11/4 that current odds of 9/2.
Sharestan is the strict form pick in the Doonside Cup, and will enjoy conditions at Ayr, but he had a decidedly anticlimactic campaign at Meydan earlier this year, and needs to bounce back to win this listed contest. Media Hype and Hajras are another pair returning from absence here, which complicates matters further. First Mohican has the best recent form, but he may need further than ten furlongs now, and it may pay to take a chance on Willie The Whipper despite a disappointing showing in the Great Voltigeur. A good sixth in the Prix du Jockey Club in June, having finished second in the Criterium de Saint Cloud last autumn, there's no denying that he has the class for this contest.
While the abiding memory of the Ebor Meeting is the rain that fell from Thursday evening onwards, it should be remembered that the meeting started on going close to firm, and several horses seemed to struggle with the lively surface. That comment applies to Willie The Whipper as much as anything, and the impression he gave was that he was unable to let himself down fully. Back on easy ground today, he can prove that form all wrong.
But the best is kept to last, and the nap vote on Saturday goes to David Wachman's Remember You in the Firth of Clyde Stakes at 15:15. Neither the Timeform figures nor official ratings have her at the top of the pile, but I'd be very surprised if her latest effort, when getting within 2 lengths of the much-vaunted Great White Eagle, doesn't look a few pounds better in retrospect than it does now. I've been hugely impressed by Aidan O'Brien's record-breaking Breeze-Up purchase, and I feel there is a strong possibility that he's much better than the bare form of his Round Tower win, and by inference, Remember You may also be underrated. Back against her own sex, she can enhance her own credentials, and those of her Curragh conqueror.
Recommendations:
All at Ayr
Back Braidley @ [5.4] in the 13:30 (NB)
Back Willie The Whipper @ [7.0] in the 14:05
Back Remember You @ [6.2] in the 15:15 (NAP)
Friday 20 September 2013
Aetna Set To Erupt At Ayr
"The bigger the field, the bigger the certainty" was one of those confusing sayings I picked up from a childhood misspent in betting shops (well, one betting shop, as Cushendall isn't exactly a bustling metropolis), and while I've never seen the adage prove its worth, I'm hoping that it holds true at Ayr today, where Aetna looks a class apart in terms of form and scope in the 5f handicap at 14:20.
Mick Easterby has already tasted success with one he's laid out for the Western Meeting, with Boris Grigoriev landing a quiet touch yesterday, and Aetna looks to have outstanding claims as long as her low draw doesn't inconvenience her too much. She bolted up at Doncaster in the spring, before disappointing on her only try at a mile on faster ground at Nottinham in April, where the ground and/or trip seemed against her. Not disgraced back at seven furlongs at York, it was only when dropped to sprinting that she really showed what she could do.
A win over 5f at Newcastle in June saw her right back on track, but she did even better at Newmarket last time, when chasing home Dutch Masterpiece. That form looked very good at the time, especially with further progress on the cards, but the winner's subsequent success in the Flying Five at the Curragh paints in in an even better light. If anyone doubts the value of that formline (surely not), then a next-time-out Group 3 victory for third-placed Russian Soul at the same venue puts the proverbial icing on the cake.
Aetna
has been kept aside for a late season campaign since, with the prevalence of soft ground suiting such a policy, and it needs to be remembered that the shrewd Easterby considered supplementing her for the 1000 Guineas after that debut win. I expect a handicap mark of 83 will soon look very lenient, and the daughter of Indesatchel can continue her progress against exposed rivals today.
Another horse looking to make a winning comeback after a summer break is Albert Bridge in the staying handicap at 15:25. Ralph Beckett's charge isn't the most consistent, but is a more effective operator on soft ground, and was a winner over thirteen furlongs at this meeting last year. He proved his stamina when runner-up in the mud at Leopardstown in November, and is better than he's been able to show in 2 starts in the spring. With his astute handler sure to have him cherry ripe, he can get back on the progressive trail, with today's test of stamina expected to play to his strengths. He's unexposed as a stayer, and as such is worth siding with.
Recommendations:
Both at Ayr
Back Aetna @ [5.9] in the 14:20 (NAP)
Back Albert Bridge @ [6.4] in the 15:25 (NB)
Mick Easterby has already tasted success with one he's laid out for the Western Meeting, with Boris Grigoriev landing a quiet touch yesterday, and Aetna looks to have outstanding claims as long as her low draw doesn't inconvenience her too much. She bolted up at Doncaster in the spring, before disappointing on her only try at a mile on faster ground at Nottinham in April, where the ground and/or trip seemed against her. Not disgraced back at seven furlongs at York, it was only when dropped to sprinting that she really showed what she could do.
A win over 5f at Newcastle in June saw her right back on track, but she did even better at Newmarket last time, when chasing home Dutch Masterpiece. That form looked very good at the time, especially with further progress on the cards, but the winner's subsequent success in the Flying Five at the Curragh paints in in an even better light. If anyone doubts the value of that formline (surely not), then a next-time-out Group 3 victory for third-placed Russian Soul at the same venue puts the proverbial icing on the cake.
Aetna
has been kept aside for a late season campaign since, with the prevalence of soft ground suiting such a policy, and it needs to be remembered that the shrewd Easterby considered supplementing her for the 1000 Guineas after that debut win. I expect a handicap mark of 83 will soon look very lenient, and the daughter of Indesatchel can continue her progress against exposed rivals today.
Another horse looking to make a winning comeback after a summer break is Albert Bridge in the staying handicap at 15:25. Ralph Beckett's charge isn't the most consistent, but is a more effective operator on soft ground, and was a winner over thirteen furlongs at this meeting last year. He proved his stamina when runner-up in the mud at Leopardstown in November, and is better than he's been able to show in 2 starts in the spring. With his astute handler sure to have him cherry ripe, he can get back on the progressive trail, with today's test of stamina expected to play to his strengths. He's unexposed as a stayer, and as such is worth siding with.
Recommendations:
Both at Ayr
Back Aetna @ [5.9] in the 14:20 (NAP)
Back Albert Bridge @ [6.4] in the 15:25 (NB)
Tuesday 17 September 2013
Carr Can Klynch Another Thirsk Win
Pick of the Flat cards on Tuesday is a competitive programme at Thirsk, where winners may not be easy to come by, but prices are likely to be juicy as a result.
I'm something of a devotee of the Huby yard of Ruth Carr, and the granddaughter of David Chapman has carried on the family tradition in fine style. She has a pair of interesting candidates in the 7f handicap at 15:40, with Al Muheer and Klynch both fully effective under prevailing conditions, and capable of outrunning morning odds.
Al Muheer is well drawn, and has dropped to a mark 2 lb lower than when beaten in a three-way photo at York in July, but it's somewhat surprising that he races without his usual blinkers (all six handicap wins have come with the headgear on), and it's the yard's apparent second string Klynch who makes most appeal at the odds. A winner of back-to-back handicaps in May, the latter at this track, he's struggled since, but the handicapper has taken a chance in dropping him to a 1 lb lower mark that for the first of those wins. He proved he was effective at this trip with a win at Epsom last summer, and looks thrown in if refinding that sort of form.
Recent efforts from Klynch have been uninspiring, but he went off much too hard after a short break last time, and can be expected to do better now, so long as Jimmy Sullivan doesn't overdo the forcing tactics again, which is admittedly a concern with fellow front runner Snow Bay drawn inside him. Such concerns are allayed by a morning price which is hovering around 25/1, and with plenty of meat expected in the Betfair place odds, he's taken to reward each-way support.
Another at Thirsk who looks overpriced on the back of an admittedly poor run is Mister Marcasite in the 15:10. Mel Brittain's charge was a winner at Nottingham on his penultimate outing, and had been off for 12 weeks prior to a rare poor run over C&D last time, weakening as if fitness was an issue. If that run is forgiven, this easy-ground specialist is much too big in the betting at 16/1 and upwards. Drawn well for one who races prominently, he may not have quite the same form chance as topweight Nurpur, but his odds more than compensate for that, and he's worth chancing to return to form under suitable conditions.
Recommendations:
Both at Thirsk
Back Klynch @ [27.0] & [7.0] win and place in the 15:40 (NAP)
Back Mister Marcasite @ [17.0] in the 15:10 (NB)
I'm something of a devotee of the Huby yard of Ruth Carr, and the granddaughter of David Chapman has carried on the family tradition in fine style. She has a pair of interesting candidates in the 7f handicap at 15:40, with Al Muheer and Klynch both fully effective under prevailing conditions, and capable of outrunning morning odds.
Al Muheer is well drawn, and has dropped to a mark 2 lb lower than when beaten in a three-way photo at York in July, but it's somewhat surprising that he races without his usual blinkers (all six handicap wins have come with the headgear on), and it's the yard's apparent second string Klynch who makes most appeal at the odds. A winner of back-to-back handicaps in May, the latter at this track, he's struggled since, but the handicapper has taken a chance in dropping him to a 1 lb lower mark that for the first of those wins. He proved he was effective at this trip with a win at Epsom last summer, and looks thrown in if refinding that sort of form.
Recent efforts from Klynch have been uninspiring, but he went off much too hard after a short break last time, and can be expected to do better now, so long as Jimmy Sullivan doesn't overdo the forcing tactics again, which is admittedly a concern with fellow front runner Snow Bay drawn inside him. Such concerns are allayed by a morning price which is hovering around 25/1, and with plenty of meat expected in the Betfair place odds, he's taken to reward each-way support.
Another at Thirsk who looks overpriced on the back of an admittedly poor run is Mister Marcasite in the 15:10. Mel Brittain's charge was a winner at Nottingham on his penultimate outing, and had been off for 12 weeks prior to a rare poor run over C&D last time, weakening as if fitness was an issue. If that run is forgiven, this easy-ground specialist is much too big in the betting at 16/1 and upwards. Drawn well for one who races prominently, he may not have quite the same form chance as topweight Nurpur, but his odds more than compensate for that, and he's worth chancing to return to form under suitable conditions.
Recommendations:
Both at Thirsk
Back Klynch @ [27.0] & [7.0] win and place in the 15:40 (NAP)
Back Mister Marcasite @ [17.0] in the 15:10 (NB)
Monday 16 September 2013
Demolition Job!
Demolition is taken to upset better-fancied opponents in the 16:10 at Musselburgh today. Noel Wilson's son of Starborough is a clear pick at the weights in the nine furlong claimer, and it's hard to understand why one fixed-odds firm have him priced up at 7/1 this morning (but thanks, anyway). Many consider sellers and claimers to be the bottom end of the racing scale, but that's only occasionally true of the former, and well wide of the mark with the latter category. Claimers tend to make excellent betting mediums, as they are populated by horses specifically placed to win, and tend to provide plenty of collateral form.
This race is no exception, with the market being headed by the talented, if quirky, Extraterrestrial, who was beaten just a short head by Seattle Drive in a claimer over this trip at Carlisle last month. He's since gone on to land a similar event at Newcastle, and while he's long had the "one to treat with caution" tag, he had plenty of opportunity to shirk the issue last time, but kept on willingly to shade the verdict, and isn't doing anything wrong at present. I must admit, he was my immediate pick in this contest, but while I fear him more than any other runner in the race, the set-up simply suits Demolition too well to ignore.
Most of this field are hold-up performers, including Seattle Drive and Extraterrestrial, and there is a possibility that their jockeys will engage in a private battle of wits behind the early pace. That pace will be provided by Yorksters Prince, who is an inveterate front runner, and in good form to boot. It's hard to see him winning, given he'd have a much easier task in a handicap, but if the others allow him to poach ten lengths, then such considerations are rendered worthless.
The one horse who might ensure that Marjorie Fife's runner is kept honest is Demolition, who has done most of his winning over an extra furlong, and his usual style is to track the pace before pressing on in the last quarter mile, and his effort when third to the hugely-progressive Clon Brulee over a mile and a quarter at Ripon in May is easily the best form in this race. With the excellent Jason Hart on board, expect to see Demolition slipstream the leader in the early stages before kicking for home after the turn for home. If he times his effort right, he can draw the sting out of the finishers, and while I expect Extraterrestrial to loom up at some point, I'm hopeful that it will be a case of too little too late.
At Wolverhampton, the nursery at 15:30 may well boil down to a match between recent winners Relation Alexander and Starlight Serenade, with the former readily preferred despite carrying a penalty for her recent impressive win at Kempton. That represented a much-improved effort, but there is simply no questioning the form, with Paul d'Arcy's filly not getting any advantage in the run other than being able to race up the stands side (as a result of being forced wide), a ploy which is in vogue with winners at the Sunbury venue of late.
Relation Alexander has clearly been well campaigned for such events by d'Arcy, having shown only modest form in 3 qualifying runs, but the clock doesn't lie, and her timefigure was one of a performer who belongs in a better class than today's affair. She has nothing to fear from the majority of these, but the unexposed Starlight Serenade is a potential fly in the ointment, having won on just her second start at Salisbury. She travelled much the best there, but was seemed either green, or reluctant under pressure before getting her head in front on the line. She may well improve markedly, but I wan't to see her in a real battle before I trust her resolution.
Recommendations:
Back Demolition @ [5.9] in the 16:10 Musselburgh (NAP)
Back Relation Alexander @ [3.45] in the 15:30 Wolverhampton (NB)
This race is no exception, with the market being headed by the talented, if quirky, Extraterrestrial, who was beaten just a short head by Seattle Drive in a claimer over this trip at Carlisle last month. He's since gone on to land a similar event at Newcastle, and while he's long had the "one to treat with caution" tag, he had plenty of opportunity to shirk the issue last time, but kept on willingly to shade the verdict, and isn't doing anything wrong at present. I must admit, he was my immediate pick in this contest, but while I fear him more than any other runner in the race, the set-up simply suits Demolition too well to ignore.
Most of this field are hold-up performers, including Seattle Drive and Extraterrestrial, and there is a possibility that their jockeys will engage in a private battle of wits behind the early pace. That pace will be provided by Yorksters Prince, who is an inveterate front runner, and in good form to boot. It's hard to see him winning, given he'd have a much easier task in a handicap, but if the others allow him to poach ten lengths, then such considerations are rendered worthless.
The one horse who might ensure that Marjorie Fife's runner is kept honest is Demolition, who has done most of his winning over an extra furlong, and his usual style is to track the pace before pressing on in the last quarter mile, and his effort when third to the hugely-progressive Clon Brulee over a mile and a quarter at Ripon in May is easily the best form in this race. With the excellent Jason Hart on board, expect to see Demolition slipstream the leader in the early stages before kicking for home after the turn for home. If he times his effort right, he can draw the sting out of the finishers, and while I expect Extraterrestrial to loom up at some point, I'm hopeful that it will be a case of too little too late.
At Wolverhampton, the nursery at 15:30 may well boil down to a match between recent winners Relation Alexander and Starlight Serenade, with the former readily preferred despite carrying a penalty for her recent impressive win at Kempton. That represented a much-improved effort, but there is simply no questioning the form, with Paul d'Arcy's filly not getting any advantage in the run other than being able to race up the stands side (as a result of being forced wide), a ploy which is in vogue with winners at the Sunbury venue of late.
Relation Alexander has clearly been well campaigned for such events by d'Arcy, having shown only modest form in 3 qualifying runs, but the clock doesn't lie, and her timefigure was one of a performer who belongs in a better class than today's affair. She has nothing to fear from the majority of these, but the unexposed Starlight Serenade is a potential fly in the ointment, having won on just her second start at Salisbury. She travelled much the best there, but was seemed either green, or reluctant under pressure before getting her head in front on the line. She may well improve markedly, but I wan't to see her in a real battle before I trust her resolution.
Recommendations:
Back Demolition @ [5.9] in the 16:10 Musselburgh (NAP)
Back Relation Alexander @ [3.45] in the 15:30 Wolverhampton (NB)
Sunday 15 September 2013
Croq of Gold?
Best bet at Bath on Sunday is Croquembouche in the 16:50. A thoroughly uncomplicated character, Ed de Giles' four-year-old landed a gamble over a mile here in June, and proved his stamina for today's trip with a battling victory at Windsor last time. On the face of it Croquembouche needs to improve again to defy a rise in the weights, but his genuine attitude will stand him in good stead, and several of his rivals have something to prove at present.
Ed de Gas has been the morning gamble, and is certainly well treated on the pick of his form, but has struggled on the whole this year. His latest effort was more encouraging, but he still didn't achieve a great deal in the end, and needs to step up, for all the handicapper has given him a chance. Tuscan Fun is another who has been backed to bounce back from a couple of poor efforts, but while blinkers could conceivably see her revived for a yard now back in form, the market is taking no chances with her.
Of the others, Derwent needs to improve for a first crack at ten furlongs, and while he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree, he's not been shaping as if screaming out for this trip, while Dandy is best when dominating, and won't get an easy lead here. A morning price of around 9/2 is more than fair for Croquembouche, but support for a couple of others may see him drift a little.
Robert Cowell's Reqaaba missed an intended engagement at the track yesterday, but it's intriguing that her yard landed that race with Maglietta Fina, and it appears that discretion was the better part of valour on that occasion. The daughter of Exceed And Excel made a winning debut for her new trainer at Windsor last time with a hood fitted, and she has been found an easier contest than yesterday's in which to follow up.
Space Artist is favourite, but had plenty in his favour when holding off Trinityelitedotcom at Chester last time, and may be vulnerable despite just a small rise for that success. He also went off the boil quickly after his last run, which is a worry, although probably best put down to his yard's mid-summer lull. I though Tom Dascombe's would shade the rematch, but both will need to improve to beat an on-son Reqaaba in my opinion.
Recommendations:
Both at Bath
Back Croquembouche @ [5.4] in the 16:50 (NAP)
Back Reqaaba @ [4.9] in the 17:20 (NB)
Ed de Gas has been the morning gamble, and is certainly well treated on the pick of his form, but has struggled on the whole this year. His latest effort was more encouraging, but he still didn't achieve a great deal in the end, and needs to step up, for all the handicapper has given him a chance. Tuscan Fun is another who has been backed to bounce back from a couple of poor efforts, but while blinkers could conceivably see her revived for a yard now back in form, the market is taking no chances with her.
Of the others, Derwent needs to improve for a first crack at ten furlongs, and while he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree, he's not been shaping as if screaming out for this trip, while Dandy is best when dominating, and won't get an easy lead here. A morning price of around 9/2 is more than fair for Croquembouche, but support for a couple of others may see him drift a little.
Robert Cowell's Reqaaba missed an intended engagement at the track yesterday, but it's intriguing that her yard landed that race with Maglietta Fina, and it appears that discretion was the better part of valour on that occasion. The daughter of Exceed And Excel made a winning debut for her new trainer at Windsor last time with a hood fitted, and she has been found an easier contest than yesterday's in which to follow up.
Space Artist is favourite, but had plenty in his favour when holding off Trinityelitedotcom at Chester last time, and may be vulnerable despite just a small rise for that success. He also went off the boil quickly after his last run, which is a worry, although probably best put down to his yard's mid-summer lull. I though Tom Dascombe's would shade the rematch, but both will need to improve to beat an on-son Reqaaba in my opinion.
Recommendations:
Both at Bath
Back Croquembouche @ [5.4] in the 16:50 (NAP)
Back Reqaaba @ [4.9] in the 17:20 (NB)
Saturday 14 September 2013
Deeds Better Than Words
Best bet on the day of Britain's final classic doesn't come at Doncaster, where the big race is something of a farrago in punting terms, but in the opener at Bath, where Mick Channon's Deeds Not Words can supplement a recent nursery win at Goodwood.
The son of Royal Applause proved most determined when holding off Expert last time, and the pair came clear of Memory Styx and Tableforten. With the runner-up and fourth going down only narrowly since (Expert in a 3-way go at Doncaster on Wednesday, and Tableforten beaten a nose in an Ascot nursery last Saturday), that form looks a bit better than it did at the time. The most taking aspect of his performance, though, was the resolution he showed when tackled by the runner-up, trading at a big price as it looked like the Hannon runner would ease past him, but digging in gamely to repel the favourite, and fully in command at the finish. I noted him at the time as one to keep on side, and don't intend to go back on my word.
Deeds Not Words is drawn to attack in stall 1 today, and I'm hoping that the official going description is accurate (currently good with a dry day forecast), as all his form has come on a sound surface. He'll get no easy lead here, but showed at Goodwood that he relishes a battle, and seems to be going the right way at present, and a 4 lb rise for his latest win is far from harsh.
In the mile-and-five handicap at 14:50, Michael Bell can strike with the progressive Bridgehampton. The Lando gelding showed a good attitude to nose out Sir Mark Prescott's Khotan at Yarmouth prior to finishing an excellent third to handicap blot Shwaiman at Doncaster last month, beaten just a short head for second by the thriving Brigadoon. The winner showed the worth of that form when a clear second in the prestigious Mallard Handicap at Doncaster yesterday, and Bridgehampton has nothing of that class to deal with here. His recent form has come on top of the ground, but as his breeding suggests, he's equally effective on an easy surface, and today's underfoot conditions are no issue in that regard.
Recommendations:
Both at Bath
Back Deeds Not Words @ [4.0] in the 14:15 (NAP)
Back Bridgehampton @ [6.8] in the 14:50 (NB)
The son of Royal Applause proved most determined when holding off Expert last time, and the pair came clear of Memory Styx and Tableforten. With the runner-up and fourth going down only narrowly since (Expert in a 3-way go at Doncaster on Wednesday, and Tableforten beaten a nose in an Ascot nursery last Saturday), that form looks a bit better than it did at the time. The most taking aspect of his performance, though, was the resolution he showed when tackled by the runner-up, trading at a big price as it looked like the Hannon runner would ease past him, but digging in gamely to repel the favourite, and fully in command at the finish. I noted him at the time as one to keep on side, and don't intend to go back on my word.
Deeds Not Words is drawn to attack in stall 1 today, and I'm hoping that the official going description is accurate (currently good with a dry day forecast), as all his form has come on a sound surface. He'll get no easy lead here, but showed at Goodwood that he relishes a battle, and seems to be going the right way at present, and a 4 lb rise for his latest win is far from harsh.
In the mile-and-five handicap at 14:50, Michael Bell can strike with the progressive Bridgehampton. The Lando gelding showed a good attitude to nose out Sir Mark Prescott's Khotan at Yarmouth prior to finishing an excellent third to handicap blot Shwaiman at Doncaster last month, beaten just a short head for second by the thriving Brigadoon. The winner showed the worth of that form when a clear second in the prestigious Mallard Handicap at Doncaster yesterday, and Bridgehampton has nothing of that class to deal with here. His recent form has come on top of the ground, but as his breeding suggests, he's equally effective on an easy surface, and today's underfoot conditions are no issue in that regard.
Recommendations:
Both at Bath
Back Deeds Not Words @ [4.0] in the 14:15 (NAP)
Back Bridgehampton @ [6.8] in the 14:50 (NB)
Friday 13 September 2013
Hey Man, It's Shwaiman!
A rather frustrating day yesterday, with Steventon Star beaten little more than half a length, but still not landing the place-only money, and Thunderball similarly afflicted despite running a cracker later on. Ho-hum.
Today's card looks marginally less trappy, and best bet on the day is James Fanshawe's Shwaiman in the Mallard Handicap at 14:10. The selection is a fast-improving sort who proved the handicapper's initial assessment to be woefully wide of the mark when absolutely running away with a C&D event on his handicap bow last month. As a son of Authorized, he's bred to relish plenty of give underfoot, and that looks to be the key factor at play.
This is a race full of talented performers, but the vast majority simply do not handle soft ground, with Semeen and Time Foe Action already taken out, and Tropical Beat having missed the Ebor on account of the ground. Pether's Moon is another to have race almost exclusively on a sound surface, and it's hard to be confident that either of that pair will be able to show their best form. With Camborne, Songcraft and Tenenbaum handicapped to the hilt, this really does look gift-wrapped for Shwaiman, even before the form of the Fanshawe yard (18 winners from 45 runners since early August) is taken into account. An even-money poke on my tissue, it's a case of filling your boots at quotes of 9/4 and 5/2 this morning.
The Doncaster Cup also gives Fanshawe claims via High Jinx, who was runner-up to Times Up last year, but hasn't looked the heartiest since. The fitting of a tongue tie suggests that his high head carriage may be down to a slight wind infirmity rather than anything more sinister, and he may well bounce back. Preference, however, is for Biographer, for whom easy ground and a test of stamina are prerequisites, and he's rarely had conditions in his favour.
The going was probably plenty fast enough for Biographer when he ran well over two miles at Sandown on Eclipse day, and while the rain came just in time in the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury, the drop to 13 furlongs was all against him. Back up to the sort of trip he's been crying out for (he was, you may recall, a late non runner in the Ascot Gold Cup), he can justify his trainer's high opinion of him.
The May Hill has been a Godolphin benefit in recent years, with Certify and White Moonstone both impressive winners having also taken Newmarket's Sweet Solera along the way. Attempting an identical feat this time is Ihtimal, who is closely matched with Qawaasem on a line through Midnite Angel, who was second at Newmarket, and then fourth in the Prestige at Goodwood. Ihtimal looks the one who will be most suited by the extra yardage today, though, and should handle softer going, being a daughter of Shamardal, who gets more than his share of easy-ground winners.
Godolphin's apparent second-string Majeyda can't be ruled out, but looks likely to be isolated on the outside, her low draw exacerbated by the fact that "tuck in" is a phrase which Mickael Barzalona has yet to master in his second language. The jockey also gave her a poor ride when beaten in the Empress Stakes at Newmarket in June, which doesn't do her justice, but his continued presence in the saddle is a sticking point, for me at least.
Recommendations:
All at Doncaster
Thursday 12 September 2013
Thunder Set To Strike
I'm delighted to see fellow betting.betfair columnist Tony Calvin tip up Nargys for the Sceptre Stakes today, as I had a horrible feeling I'd be tempted to put this cliff horse up again, and it's a relief to have an excuse to sidestep Luca Cumani's talented but frustrating filly, even if that means handing the plaudits to the former Betfair PR Chief. Best of luck, Tony!
One who did catch the eye in that event is Karle Burke's mare Boastful, who isn't the best in this field by any means, but is best able to deal with tacky ground, having shown all her best form with plenty of give underfoot. The worry is that the going may not be soft enough for her, and with no rain overnight on Town Moor, and a dry day forecast, she''s reluctantly passed over. If the forecast proves wide of the mark, though, she needs considering at big odds despite a layoff.
One who looks massively overpriced in the Weatherby's Sales race at 14:40 is the Richard Hannon-trained Steventon Star, who will find the dead ground more to his liking than many of his rivals, and has some solid early-season form to his name. With his latest outing possibly needed after being gelded, he's better judged on earlier form, and looks to hold stronger claims than odds of 50/1+ indicate. He's likely to find a couple too good, but should be pitching for place money, and should be backed place only at juicy odds.
Best bet on the card, though, comes in the 6f handicap at 16:25. Best in big-field contests on a straight track, Thunderball caught the eye when second home on the unfavoured side in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon last month, and his latest poor effort around the tight turns of Chester will merely serve to make him a backable price today. A regular at this venue, his track record on going softer than good is 2 wins and a second from 8 runs, and several of his defeats have been highly creditable ones.
With the Scott Dixon team ticking over well enough, and a high draw certainly no disadvantage based on yesterday's evidence, Thunderball has plenty in his favour, and should reward each-way support.
Over at Chepstow, Dovils Duel looks poised to complete a hat-trick in the 5f nursery. Always well regarded, it's taken him a while to shake off temperament concerns, but has shown himself to be a reformed character since headgear was removed, and simply looks a class above his rivals today. He looks more like a 6/4 shot to me, and anything bigger than 2/1 is a gift.
Recommendations:
Back Thunderball @ [7.4] in the 16:25 Doncaster (NAP)
Back Dovils Duel @ [3.05] in the 15:00 Chepstow (NB)
Back Steventon Star to place @ [12.0] in the 14:40 Doncaster
One who did catch the eye in that event is Karle Burke's mare Boastful, who isn't the best in this field by any means, but is best able to deal with tacky ground, having shown all her best form with plenty of give underfoot. The worry is that the going may not be soft enough for her, and with no rain overnight on Town Moor, and a dry day forecast, she''s reluctantly passed over. If the forecast proves wide of the mark, though, she needs considering at big odds despite a layoff.
One who looks massively overpriced in the Weatherby's Sales race at 14:40 is the Richard Hannon-trained Steventon Star, who will find the dead ground more to his liking than many of his rivals, and has some solid early-season form to his name. With his latest outing possibly needed after being gelded, he's better judged on earlier form, and looks to hold stronger claims than odds of 50/1+ indicate. He's likely to find a couple too good, but should be pitching for place money, and should be backed place only at juicy odds.
Best bet on the card, though, comes in the 6f handicap at 16:25. Best in big-field contests on a straight track, Thunderball caught the eye when second home on the unfavoured side in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon last month, and his latest poor effort around the tight turns of Chester will merely serve to make him a backable price today. A regular at this venue, his track record on going softer than good is 2 wins and a second from 8 runs, and several of his defeats have been highly creditable ones.
With the Scott Dixon team ticking over well enough, and a high draw certainly no disadvantage based on yesterday's evidence, Thunderball has plenty in his favour, and should reward each-way support.
Over at Chepstow, Dovils Duel looks poised to complete a hat-trick in the 5f nursery. Always well regarded, it's taken him a while to shake off temperament concerns, but has shown himself to be a reformed character since headgear was removed, and simply looks a class above his rivals today. He looks more like a 6/4 shot to me, and anything bigger than 2/1 is a gift.
Recommendations:
Back Thunderball @ [7.4] in the 16:25 Doncaster (NAP)
Back Dovils Duel @ [3.05] in the 15:00 Chepstow (NB)
Back Steventon Star to place @ [12.0] in the 14:40 Doncaster
Sunday 8 September 2013
Brook Can End Barren Run
Today's meeting at York is a hugely competitive one, and not one where bankers are easy to find, but it may be the day that the perennially-unlucky Barren Brook finally gets the reward for recent efforts. Runner-up behind handicap blot Chancery over C&D in July, he looked sure to win before long (a notion bolstered by the winner absolutely bolting up at this track last time from a 9 lb higher mark), but things simply haven't gone his way since.
Barren Brook has raced three times since that creditable defeat, and every time he has met trouble in running, with his latest run at Ripon particularly frustrating, as he was the last horse off the bridle, but found himself pocketed for the entire length of the straight. Despite looking an unlucky loser, the assessor has actually dropped Barren Brook in the weights, and he looks on a very favourable mark. The likely strong pace will suit this patiently-ridden type, and while there are several obvious dangers, few look as well handicapped.
If the pace in that contest looks strong, it's nothing compared to the 2m handicap at 16:05, which is chock-a-block with front runners. Such a scenario looks sure to play into the hands of a strong-travelling hold-up sort, and the one who jumps off the page is Recession Proof. The selection has been on the sidelines since finishing an excellent fifth in the 2011 Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham, a race widely regarded as the strongest novice hurdle form in many a long year, with the quartet in front all superstars in their own right. Recession Proof had previously won the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, yet can race off a lowly Flat mark of 82 on his return.
Given his history of injury, there's always an element of risk, but at the same time, trainers of such horses can't afford to bring them back half-fit, and he's likely to be well enough forward to give a good account. The bottom line, once again, is that he's far to well treated to ignore in a race which is sure to be run to suit his style.
Final bet of the day is old favourite Lancelot du Lac, who did us a favour when winning at a big price here in May. That came with ease in the ground over 7f, but this keen goer showed himself better suited by a drop to 6f when scoring impressively at Newmarket last time. That win opens up new avenues for Dean Ivory's Shamardal colt, and he looks one to follow at sprint trips.
Recommendations:
All at York
Back Barren Brook @ [11.0] in the 15:35 (NAP)
Back Recession Proof @ [16.5] in the 16:05 (NB)
Back Lancelot du Lac @ [5.5] in the 16:40
Barren Brook has raced three times since that creditable defeat, and every time he has met trouble in running, with his latest run at Ripon particularly frustrating, as he was the last horse off the bridle, but found himself pocketed for the entire length of the straight. Despite looking an unlucky loser, the assessor has actually dropped Barren Brook in the weights, and he looks on a very favourable mark. The likely strong pace will suit this patiently-ridden type, and while there are several obvious dangers, few look as well handicapped.
If the pace in that contest looks strong, it's nothing compared to the 2m handicap at 16:05, which is chock-a-block with front runners. Such a scenario looks sure to play into the hands of a strong-travelling hold-up sort, and the one who jumps off the page is Recession Proof. The selection has been on the sidelines since finishing an excellent fifth in the 2011 Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham, a race widely regarded as the strongest novice hurdle form in many a long year, with the quartet in front all superstars in their own right. Recession Proof had previously won the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, yet can race off a lowly Flat mark of 82 on his return.
Given his history of injury, there's always an element of risk, but at the same time, trainers of such horses can't afford to bring them back half-fit, and he's likely to be well enough forward to give a good account. The bottom line, once again, is that he's far to well treated to ignore in a race which is sure to be run to suit his style.
Final bet of the day is old favourite Lancelot du Lac, who did us a favour when winning at a big price here in May. That came with ease in the ground over 7f, but this keen goer showed himself better suited by a drop to 6f when scoring impressively at Newmarket last time. That win opens up new avenues for Dean Ivory's Shamardal colt, and he looks one to follow at sprint trips.
Recommendations:
All at York
Back Barren Brook @ [11.0] in the 15:35 (NAP)
Back Recession Proof @ [16.5] in the 16:05 (NB)
Back Lancelot du Lac @ [5.5] in the 16:40
Saturday 7 September 2013
Redvers Can Deliver At Ascot
Best bet at Ascot on Saturday is Redvers in the opening 7f handicap. The Ed Vaughan-trained gelding has been a serial eye-catcher this year, most notably in the Buckingham Palace Handicap over C&D at the Royal Meeting. Since then he's not had things drop right in the Bunbury Cup and back at Ascot when given far too much to do by Richard Hughes. He's now partnered by Richard Kingscote, and that rider's straightforward style will suit him, as will the prospect of a contested pace.
Redvers' credentials for a race of this nature aren't in doubt, as he showed when winning over C&D last summer in the Longines ladies' race, and he's shaped better than the bare result on all other starts at Ascot, shaping like just about the best horse at the weights despite finishing seventh in the Buckingham Palace, when racing on the "wrong" side and meeting trouble when full of running combined to derail his challenge. He's been dropped right out in 2 starts since, and the fact that those races have been dominated by those with early pace tells its own story. Horses like him (and main danger Pythagorean) will always be hostages to fortune in terms of tactics, but today's race has a pleasing shape to it, and Redvers certainly deserves to have the cards fall for him for a change.
The concluding race on the card is a big-field 5f handicap, and possibly not the race on which "Aussie Jim" McGrath wants to have has his final call, but if it all drops right, then it could be a dramatic and fitting epitaph to a once-revolutionary race-caller. The pattern of the race looks straightforward, with a lot of early speed among those drawn next to the stands rail, but the pacesetters, including Rylee Mooch, Stone of Folca and Lady Gibraltar, look vulnerable, and are likely to serve this up on a plate to the hold-up types in the field, of whom Dungannon and Diamond Charlie make most appeal.
Like the main selection, that pair caught the eye last time, Dungannon facing up well to a first-time visor only to meet traffic problems at Sandown last week, and Diamond Charlie getting the benefit of one of Mickael Barzalona's poorer tactical rides (and there are a lot to choose from) when fourth to a pair of reopposing rivals over C&D in July. Given an overconfident ride on that occasion, he failed to pick up immediately, but was running the leaders down close home, and will be better served by a faster pace here. With that pair occupying the highest stalls, and stacks of pace immediately to their right, it would be a surprise if one of them couldn't win, and it may well boil down to a battle of wits between Jimmy Quinn and Jimmy Fortune.
Recommendations:
All at Ascot
Back Redvers @ [11.0] in the 13:55 (NAP)
Back Dungannon & Diamond Charlie @ [5.0] & [15.0] in the 17:10
Redvers' credentials for a race of this nature aren't in doubt, as he showed when winning over C&D last summer in the Longines ladies' race, and he's shaped better than the bare result on all other starts at Ascot, shaping like just about the best horse at the weights despite finishing seventh in the Buckingham Palace, when racing on the "wrong" side and meeting trouble when full of running combined to derail his challenge. He's been dropped right out in 2 starts since, and the fact that those races have been dominated by those with early pace tells its own story. Horses like him (and main danger Pythagorean) will always be hostages to fortune in terms of tactics, but today's race has a pleasing shape to it, and Redvers certainly deserves to have the cards fall for him for a change.
The concluding race on the card is a big-field 5f handicap, and possibly not the race on which "Aussie Jim" McGrath wants to have has his final call, but if it all drops right, then it could be a dramatic and fitting epitaph to a once-revolutionary race-caller. The pattern of the race looks straightforward, with a lot of early speed among those drawn next to the stands rail, but the pacesetters, including Rylee Mooch, Stone of Folca and Lady Gibraltar, look vulnerable, and are likely to serve this up on a plate to the hold-up types in the field, of whom Dungannon and Diamond Charlie make most appeal.
Like the main selection, that pair caught the eye last time, Dungannon facing up well to a first-time visor only to meet traffic problems at Sandown last week, and Diamond Charlie getting the benefit of one of Mickael Barzalona's poorer tactical rides (and there are a lot to choose from) when fourth to a pair of reopposing rivals over C&D in July. Given an overconfident ride on that occasion, he failed to pick up immediately, but was running the leaders down close home, and will be better served by a faster pace here. With that pair occupying the highest stalls, and stacks of pace immediately to their right, it would be a surprise if one of them couldn't win, and it may well boil down to a battle of wits between Jimmy Quinn and Jimmy Fortune.
Recommendations:
All at Ascot
Back Redvers @ [11.0] in the 13:55 (NAP)
Back Dungannon & Diamond Charlie @ [5.0] & [15.0] in the 17:10
Sunday 1 September 2013
Beacon Shines Out At Brighton
It's often said that you need to go against the crowd to make it pay as a horseracing punter, and that advice is undoubtedly sound, but we've all frequently kicked ourselves for ignoring the obvious in search of value when that obvious selection skates up, particularly when it ends up double the odds you expected it to be.
The 15:30 at Brighton is a case in point. My initial reaction was to try to find one to beat the likely favourite Beacon Lady, a much-improved performer who has won her last 4 starts, including 3 at this venue. The drop back in trip might make her a little vulnerable, I reasoned, before digging into the form of her rivals. It was only after watching her win the Amateur Derby again that I realised I was looking at things the wrong way around.
Beacon Lady ran the race of her life at Epsom, and it wasn't due to a superior ride from Patrick Mullins, or because she saw the trip out better than her rivals, but because she was simply the best horse in the field, and she cruised into contention before mowing down the well-handicapped Azrag. This isn't a filly to be inventing a case against on the basis of minor concerns, but a flourishing racehorse who still hasn't reached her peak, and therefore one to side with, particularly as she's inexplicably not even favourite.
Given she and the runner-up came 14 lengths clear of the third that day, it's fair to say that she's well-in under a penalty, and the claim of Oisin Murphy, already a winner on her at this track, is another bonus. The way she travelled at Epsom negates concerns about the return to ten furlongs now, and her claims shine out like...well, like a beacon.
One trainer who has made an impression on me this season is Gary Harrison, and the Scot has done well with limited ammunition since moving to Newmarket. His record of 6 wins in 31 starts in handicaps this year is not to be sniffed at, and he has an interesting runner in the 16:05 in the shape of Coalburn. The gelding is a half-brother to Mornin Reserves, who won the prestigious Gosforth Park Cup in Harrison's colours before becoming one of the first horses to represent him on taking out a training licence.
Given plenty of time to mature after a trio of outings in maidens as a 3-y-o, he shaped much better than the bare result on his handicap debut at Yarmouth last month. Notably weak in the betting, and looking in need of the run, he showed the natural speed which runs through his family, and faded only in the last furlong without his jockey getting serious - a replay showing, in fact, that Darren Egan had dropped his whip mid-race. That fact seems to have been missed by most observers (not mentioned in the form book), but is certainly noteworthy. With improvement expected, and off a rock-bottom handicap mark, Coalburn is worth chancing against the consistent, if somewhat frustrating Chester'slittlegem.
Recommendations:
Both at Brighton
Back Beacon Lady @ [4.3] in the 15:30 (NAP)
Back Coalburn @ [25.0] in the 16:05 (NB)
The 15:30 at Brighton is a case in point. My initial reaction was to try to find one to beat the likely favourite Beacon Lady, a much-improved performer who has won her last 4 starts, including 3 at this venue. The drop back in trip might make her a little vulnerable, I reasoned, before digging into the form of her rivals. It was only after watching her win the Amateur Derby again that I realised I was looking at things the wrong way around.
Beacon Lady ran the race of her life at Epsom, and it wasn't due to a superior ride from Patrick Mullins, or because she saw the trip out better than her rivals, but because she was simply the best horse in the field, and she cruised into contention before mowing down the well-handicapped Azrag. This isn't a filly to be inventing a case against on the basis of minor concerns, but a flourishing racehorse who still hasn't reached her peak, and therefore one to side with, particularly as she's inexplicably not even favourite.
Given she and the runner-up came 14 lengths clear of the third that day, it's fair to say that she's well-in under a penalty, and the claim of Oisin Murphy, already a winner on her at this track, is another bonus. The way she travelled at Epsom negates concerns about the return to ten furlongs now, and her claims shine out like...well, like a beacon.
One trainer who has made an impression on me this season is Gary Harrison, and the Scot has done well with limited ammunition since moving to Newmarket. His record of 6 wins in 31 starts in handicaps this year is not to be sniffed at, and he has an interesting runner in the 16:05 in the shape of Coalburn. The gelding is a half-brother to Mornin Reserves, who won the prestigious Gosforth Park Cup in Harrison's colours before becoming one of the first horses to represent him on taking out a training licence.
Given plenty of time to mature after a trio of outings in maidens as a 3-y-o, he shaped much better than the bare result on his handicap debut at Yarmouth last month. Notably weak in the betting, and looking in need of the run, he showed the natural speed which runs through his family, and faded only in the last furlong without his jockey getting serious - a replay showing, in fact, that Darren Egan had dropped his whip mid-race. That fact seems to have been missed by most observers (not mentioned in the form book), but is certainly noteworthy. With improvement expected, and off a rock-bottom handicap mark, Coalburn is worth chancing against the consistent, if somewhat frustrating Chester'slittlegem.
Recommendations:
Both at Brighton
Back Beacon Lady @ [4.3] in the 15:30 (NAP)
Back Coalburn @ [25.0] in the 16:05 (NB)
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