No Penance For Confessional

Saturday's best value bet comes, not at the headquarters of Flat racing, but in a big-field sprint at Haydock, where course specialist Confessional is hugely overpriced in the Betfair Supports Racing Welfare Handicap at 15:30. Tim Easterby's son of Dubawi never runs a poor race at the Newton-le-Willows venue, with his record over the minimum trip there comprising two wins and two seconds from just five runs, with the other effort a highly creditable fifth in the Temple Stakes.

Confessional again showed his liking for C&D with an impressive win earlier in the month, when always travelling exuberantly towards the fore, and able to be called the likeliest winner long before the winning line. He was pitched into the Portland under a penalty next time, but simply had no chance from a draw on the far side, with those drawn in double figures filling all but one of the first nine places. That run is simple to excuse, and a return to Haydock can see him quickly back on top. He's gone up in the weights for that latest win, but is still lower in the ratings than he was at the start of the year, and looks as good as ever. He's languishing towards the bottom of the betting ladder, and that's simply wrong, so back him win and place for a juicy return.

Another horse with a solid record at Haydock is Cheveton, who contests the six-furlong handicap at 16:05. The veteran hasn't been in much form this season, but he's been trained to peak in the autumn, and showed a lot more in the Bronze Cup at Ayr last time, when not beaten far in eighth despite being drawn on the unfavoured side. He's got a reputation as best on heavy ground, but it's much more accurate to call him a late-season specialist, with the state of the going more of an issue for others. He's often slowly away, but that wasn't the case at Ayr, and he looks capable of better now that he's found his form.

The selection may not be quite the force of old, but a BHA mark of 80 underplays his current ability, and he is poised to strike when getting a suitable set-up. There isn't much obvious pace in the contest, and a false pace is an unknown for a few of these, particularly Dungannon, who was a winner for this column at Ascot last time, but had the perfect pace scenario there, and isn't sure to get things run to suit today.

The only solid pace angle in the contest is Karl Burke's Dancheur, who needs to dominate, and did just that when winning at Hamilton last weekend. She'd normally be opposable under a penalty in a more competitive race, but there's just a chance that she can get loose here, and she will go very close if the others let her set the early fractions. That's probably a scenario which would be the selection's undoing, so it makes sense to include her as a saver, particularly with the possibility of a back-to-lay trade in prospect.

Recommendations:

Both at Haydock

Back Confessional win & place @ [24.0] & [5.2] in the 15:30 (NAP)

Back Cheveton @ [13.0] in the 16:05 (NB)