Midnight Can Answer Punters' Prayer

If you've been reading my jumps-related missives of late, you may spot one or two recurring themes:

I like an Alan King novice chaser

I think the Centenary Novices' Handicap at the Festival will throw up winners

I think tipping-related puns need to be thought through thoroughly

So on that note I head to Stratford to look at the 3 steeplechases on the card. The steeple that runners at Stratford happen to chase is that of what's known as Shakespeare's Church, or Holy Trinity to the parishioners. So here's a wholly (overworked) trinity of bets:

To kick us off on the theme, the best bet on the card is Midnight Prayer in the novices' handicap at 14:10. The son of Midnight Legend is a tall, scopey sort who ought to do well over fences, and he will take all the beating if matching the form he showed over hurdles when winning at Wincanton in the spring. He ended his campaign over timber with a respectable sixth of 22 behind Trackmate at Aintree in May, and that form has been boosted since, with the winner landing a Pertemps Qualifier at Cheltenham's Showcase meeting. That represented just his third run in a handicap, and he's capable of better still, with a number of King's horses making a smooth transition to fences this season, and most appearing very well schooled.

It's hard to rule anything out in this race, but most have found their level, whereas the selection was only beginning to blossom in the spring, giving hope that he will remain ahead of the handicapper for a while yet. Biggest danger may well be a relative outsider in Who Owns Me, who had a profitable time of things last winter, and was probably just over the top when losing his form in the spring.

One with a similar profile in the 15:10 is Listen Boy, who is bred on old-fashioned lines, and has seen the racecourse only seven times. He made a promising chase debut over C&D on this card last year, and went on to break his duck over fences in game style at Leicester in December. He's been off since, but Nigel Twiston-Davies produced the long-absent Hollow Blue Sky to score at Carlisle yesterday, and fitness won't be an issue for Listen Boy today. He's not thrown in off a mark of 120 if his form to date is any guide, but with Desperate Dex getting long in the tooth, and Circus of Dreams a moody character, he doesn't have a great deal to beat, and should have a bit more in the locker.

My selection of Forgotten Gold at Fakenham last week based on the strength of the aforementioned Cheltenham contest failed in the most frustrating way to bear fruit, but the principal remains sound, and The Druids Nephew is the next to carry that particular torch when lining up in the 15:40. Andy Turnell's charge was my ante-post fancy that day, and ran well to be sixth given that he was always under pressure at the head of affairs, and he remains well handicapped on the form of his impressive Wincanton defeat of Grandioso on his previous start. With improvement the norm for second season chasers, he can make short work of today's rivals.

Recommendations:

All at Stratford

Back Midnight Prayer @ [4.8] in the 14:10 (NAP)

Back Listen Boy @ [3.4] in the 15:10

Back The Druids Nephew @ [3.75] in the 15:40

Candy A Nottingham Treat

Best bet at Nottingham is John Spearing's mudlark Rock On Candy (14:30), who has an excellent strike rate when getting her conditions. The daughter of Excellent Art is clearly hard to train, and seems reliant on genuinely soft ground, with a poor run over C&D in August attributed by the trainer to the ground not being easy enough for her. Rock On Candy has won testing-ground handicaps on all 3 starts either side of that aberration, and had shaped much better than the bare result when sixth of twelve here just over a year ago. She's up in the weights again for that Ffos Las win, but remains unexposed given her conditions, and can shrug aside the rise after a break.

In the second division of that contest at 15:05, a chance is taken on the regressive Foxy Music, who has been given a real chance by the assessor, and has been more competitive in handicaps on his last couple of starts. His sole previous try over C&D came on easy ground, when beaten just a short head by the useful Jonny Mudball, with Tax Free back in third. Tried in pattern company later last year, it's no surprise he struggled, but he's now back at a level where he can be competitive, and he looks the best of those drawn low today. It's possible that the high draws will dominate, with Beau Mistral having a perfect set-up in stall fourteen, next door to the speedy Alpha Delta Whisky, but if the draw doesn't scupper his chances, then Foxy Music could surprise at a juicy price.

The final selection on a trappy Nottingham card is Opera Buff in the 15:40. Sean Curran's charge has improved on easy ground of late, winning by a wide margin at Salisbury, and pulling nine lengths clear of the third when runner-up to Harry Hunt in the jump jockeys' challenge at Goodwood last time. A further rise in the weights for that effort is fully justified, and he looks too strong for a mixed bag of opponents here, with Desert Recluse perhaps his most interesting rival. That one is having just his second start for Brendan Powell having hinted at a revival last time, and the Powell/Fallon combination were in winning form at Yarmouth yesterday with Uncle Dermot.

Recommendations:

All at Nottingham

Back Rock On Candy @ [9.2] in the 14:30 (NAP)

Back Foxy Music @ [18.0] in the 15:05

Back Opera Buff @ [3.9] in the 15:40

Collodi The Call At Yarmouth

The headlines after Tuesday's racing are likely to be about Tony McCoy, and his continued quest to hit the 4,000 winner mark as a jockey. He's only eleven shy of that milestone, and it's possible that all five of his mounts at Ffos Las will go off as short-priced favourites. It's amazing to think that such a total is even possible for a jump jockey - I remember John Francome riding his 1,000th winner and becoming only the second man in history to reach that figure, which was considered the benchmark for such a long time. McCoy has raised the bar to a truly frightening degree.

So the fun and games will be at Ffos Las, but the prices there are too skinny for my taste, so it's off to Yarmouth, where Roger and Ned Curtis can team up to land the mile handicap at 14:10 courtesy of Collodi. The ex-German performer showed fairly useful form for Peter Schiergen in his native land before joining Curtis in September. It took him a couple of runs to find his feet, but he bounced back to his best when beating the reopposing Uncle Dermot at Windsor recently, winning by three lengths having travelled best throughout. Heavy ground can produce strange results, but there was no hint of a fluke about Collodi's return to form there, and he remains lower than when initially assessed by the BHA handicapper despite a penalty for that win.

Magique was also a winner at Windsor last time, but very much had things drop right for here on that occasion, and looks opposable, for all she's only gone up 3 lbs for that win. I'd expect Uncle Dermot to emerge as the main danger again, and will protect my stake by combining the pair in a reverse forecast.

The following nursery (14:40) is a cracking contest in which a pair stand out on bare form. Firecruise showed improved form to land a Pontefract nursery in blinkers last week, and the handicapper has seen fit to raise him to a new BHA mark of 79. That makes him look absolutely thrown in today, with his penalty for that win meaning he's running off a mark of 72 today. That will ensure he's heavily backed, but there is a chance that his margin of victory flatters him, having come in for a very canny ride from Robert Winston, saving ground on the inner as others went wide looking for better ground which turned out to be non-existant. There's no doubt that David Barron's gelding improved that day, but probably not to the extent it seemed, and he may go off a false price as a result.

If Firecruise is thrown in off his current mark, then that comment goes double for Evacusafe Lady, who races off a lowly BHA mark of 56 today, but has just been reassesed upwards by a full stone, having improved to finish second in a Newmarket maiden last time. There must always be a doubt about such performances, particularly when they come from seemingly exposed performers, and it's possible that Evacusafe Lady is flattered by getting a clear lead in that contest. It's worth noting that she put up a very big timefigure there, however, and there is no doubt in retrospect that she did indeed take a big step forward. The concern is that after such a big effort, she may well "bounce", but it's worth taking a chance on her, given that a repetition of that effort would almost certainly be enough to win here, and at around 7.0 on Betfair, she's not been overestimated by the market.

Recommendations:

Both at Yarmouth

Back Collodi @ [5.2] in the 14:10 (NAP)

Back Evacusafe Lady @ [7.0] in the 14:40 (NB)

Seskinane On Revenge Mission

All 3 UK meetings have bitten the dust this morning, which is a shame, but it's a measure of how cynical we are about the storm hype here that betting on whether racing would go ahead at Leicester, Bangor and Redcar saw the trio all trade at long odds on to survive. That's by the by now, however, and attention must turn to racing in Ireland, a land rendered immune from hurricanes by the blessed St Patrick himself, probably.

Naas host what is an excellent card for a Monday, with a host of classy animals on show, and the pick of them for many will be Rule The World, who looks sure to start favourite for the 2½m hurdle on the card after showing himself one of the country's top novices last year. He's much respected, but the value in that race may lie with the luckless Seskinane, one of the most impressive winners of the summer when slamming On His Own at Sligo in May, but  harshly disqualified when jockey Derek Fox admitted to dangerous riding when initially making his move. Such an admission was naive in the extreme, and a mistake a senior jockey wouldn't have made, so it can be assumed that both Fox and trainer Mark McNiff were seething at the decision.

Seskinane has nothing to fear from On His Own on that form, and given that was only his third run over hurdles, it would be a major surprise if that proves his limit in form terms, and it simply beggars belief that he's only fifth best in the market. That assessment is plain wrong, and while he needs to progress again to beat an on-song Rule The World, such an eventuality is eminently feasible.

In the Grade 3 Poplar Square Chase (13:45), it's worth siding with Oscars Well on his seasonal return. The gelding was arguably disappointing as a novice last year, but finished runner-up three times at the top level, and looked to appreciate more positive tactics when second to Arvika Ligeonnaire on his final start. Reunited with Barry Geraghty today, and with Jessica Harrington's team enjoying a fine run, he can make the most of the weight he receives from Twinlight to end a frustrating sequence. He's lacked a little boldness at his fences at times, but Geraghty is the finest jockey around for instilling confidence in a dodgy jumper, and he was more polished in that department at Punchestown. He holds Special Tiara, Alderwood and Realt Mor on that running, and it will be a major disappointment if he can't score with everything seeming in his favour here.

Recommendations:

Both at Naas

Back Oscars Well @ [3.55] in the 13:45 (NB)

Back Seskinane @ [9.2] in the 14:15 (NAP)

Lodge An Appealing Bet

Mention of the Desert Orchid Handicap Chase at Wincanton automatically evokes memories of David Elsworth's immortal grey, who was a regular at the West Country track a quarter of a century ago. Dessie's bold-jumping style endeared him to racing fans from the moment he switched to fences, and he did more for the popularity of racing that any marketing campaign ever could.

It's appropriate that the likeliest winner of the race named in his honour is also a front runner with a fine leap, and Highland Lodge can put himself in the picture for the Hennessy Gold Cup by beating his inferiors at 14:55. It's a competitive race on paper, but the early exploits over fences of Emma Lavelle's charge mark him down as better than his current mark implies, particularly a trouncing of the well-touted Our Father at Cheltenham in December, while his third in the Worcester Novices' Chase at Newbury was another noteworthy effort. The yard's subsequent loss of form has been covered by me before, but essentially means that many of Lavelle's better horses start the 2013/14 campaign well handicapped, and this is a prime example.

The danger to Highland Lodge is Standing Ovation, and I'm well aware that it was David Pipe's charge who spoilt the party when I tipped up Qianshan Express in this column a few weeks ago. I opined then that he was extremely well handicapped and would progress as his jumping frailties were ironed out, but he'll need to take another step up to score today, with his mark now 16 lb higher. That progress is more than possible, but he'll find the talented Highland Lodge a much harder nut to crack than his stablemate.

Earlier on the card, I was keen on the chances of Victor Dartnall's Silver Commander in the 14:20, a novices' handicap chase over 2m5f. The son of Silver Patriarch was a big disappointment when a distant second at Exeter last time, stopping quickly having given sole serious rival Dawn Commander a jumping lesson for much of the way. That sound jumping will be an asset against raw novices, as will the drop in trip and, most importantly, the refitting of a tongue tie. It's safe to assume that Silver Commander suffers with his breathing, and that is disguising his true ability, so I'll be insuring my bet with an in-running lay. He's currently trading at 16.0 on Betfair, but I'd be very surprised if he didn't hit much lower, and I'd be hopeful of trading my stake back at no bigger than 4.0 in the run. Hopefully he can break a frustrating run, but it may pay to be prudent with the in-running strategy.

Recommendations:

Both at Wincanton

Back Silver Commander @ [16.0] in the 14:20 (Back To Lay)

Back Highland Lodge @ [3.75] in the 14:50 (NAP)

Proof Is In The Pudding

Every year, there are certain races so competitive that a blanket approach of backing all the runners in subsequent contests pays off. This is particularly true of novice events at the Cheltenham Festival, and those who banked on the 2011 Supreme being strong form have been handsomely rewarded, as an example. Similarly, those who took a view that the best National Hunt Flat races would, by their nature, be populated by progressive jumping sorts have historically done well tracking the fortunes of the Champion Bumper runners over the years.

Another relatively new race which is showing similar traits is the Centenary Novices' Handicap, won in March by Rajdhani Express (as the Rewards4racing Novices' Handicap Chase). That horse is one who I'm confident can make the jump from talented handicapper to live Ryanair prospect, and he heads my list of likely contenders for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, for which he trades at 12/1 with Betfair's Sportsbook.

He's not the only one from that race to have caught the eye, though, and after Johns Spirit won well at Cheltenham last week, it's the turn of Forgotten Gold to boost the form at Fakenham (15:25) today. Tom George's charge was only ninth in March, but was better than the bare result, and would have finished closer but for a couple of mistakes, notably at the tricky second last. He's only had a handful of races over fences, winning at Aintree and Market Rasen, and looks just the sort to progress again in his second season. He ought to go very close on his seasonal return, particularly with his stable having a double at Southwell yesterday.

Dawn Commander is his main rival on the book, but Charlie Longsdon's grey didn't impress with his jumping in a small field at Exeter, and will be tested fully against experienced rivals. Of the others, The Rainbow Hunter is reported to need the run by Kim Bailey, and Dover's Hill ran well below expectations on debut for Nigel Twiston-Davies at Market Rasen. My idea of the biggest threat is Wiesentraum, who was a winner for this column in the summer, and remains on a fair mark.

In the later handicap chase (16:30), Plum Pudding looks to have an excellent chance of making up for an unfortunate defeat on his debut for David Bridgwater at Huntingdon. On that occasion, he shaped like much the best horse, but was simply given an overly aggressive ride by Tom Scudamore as he battled with Darnborough for early supremacy. That effort eventually told as he was caught close home by Riddlestown, but he's confidently expected to reverse that form, with the winner's penalty another help in that regard. With Midnight Charmer also looking flattered by a recent win at Uttoxeter (another race that fell apart after a strong early pace), and the tricky Roc de Guye up 21 lb for winning 3 on the bounce, this looks something of a penalty kick for Plum Pudding, and he can get the job done with the minimum of fuss.


Recommendations:

Both at Fakenham

Back Forgotten Gold @ [5.7] in the 15:25 (NB)

Back Plum Pudding @ [2.72] in the 16:30 (NAP)

Uxizandre Can Continue King's Plumpton Love-in

Plumpton is undoubtedly one of jump racing's hidden gems, with the action never far away, and the track attended on the whole by genuine enthusiasts, with all the enjoyment that goes with it. The contours of the track make it a test of balance more than stamina, while the fences are inviting, yet stiff enough that youngsters are given a proper education. It may not attract the star names as much as the Newburys or Cheltenhams, but it never leaves its customers feeling short changed, and certain trainers are more than happy to sent their better prospects there.

One such trainer is Alan King, with Kandjar D'Allier, Voy Por Ustedes, Bensalem, Medermit, Invictus & Kumbeshwar just a selection of promising young chasers which he has seen fit to send to Plumpton to gain their early education, and all have gone on to better things as chasers, with Invictus the last horse to inflict defeat on Gold Cup hero Bobs Worth. Part of the reason why King is so keen to send classy novices over fences at the Sussex venue is no doubt connected to the ongoing scheme which sees a £60,000 bonus to winners of certain Plumpton races who go on to win at Cheltenham in March, but you can be assured that if the track wasn't deemed appropriate, the runners simply wouldn't come.

King unleashes the promising Uxizandre (15:50) today, and the son of Fragrant Mix will have ideal conditions as he embarks on a chasing career in a change of colours, with J P McManus having picked him up from the Million In Mind Partnership in the summer. He was a winner in soft ground at Newbury and Warwick over hurdles, and ran well to finish within twenty lengths of the exciting At Fishers Cross in graded company at Aintree on his final 2012/13 outing. Sure to be well schooled ahead of this chase bow, he is still unexposed after just seven lifetime starts, and makes plenty of appeal. 

Barlow is the form pick, and it's possible that he will benefit from a drop in trip having often finished weakly over further last season. The worry with him is that he simply hasn't won the races he should given his ability, and has almost certainly reached his limit in form terms. Loose Chips went to the well once too often last year, but ought to bounce back with his yard in form. Whether he can concede weight to Uxizandre is another matter, however.

In the staying handicap hurdle at 16:20, the tough Cannon Fodder is taken to regain winning ways after a career best over C&D last time. On that occasion, Sheena West's daughter of Stayers' Hurdle winner Nomadic Way split subsequent winners in finishing a creditable third to Aimigayle. That came on fast ground, but she's perfectly at home in the mud, and the proliferation of pacesetters in this event should ensure that stamina will be tested fully, which is also expected to be to her advantage. 

  

Recommendations:

Both at Plumpton

Back Uxizandre @ [2.52] in the 15:50 (NAP)

Back Cannon Fodder @ [5.7] in the 16:20 (NB)

Get A Highrate On Your Investment

Highrate is taken to make a winning start for Kim Bailey when he contests the 3m handicap chase at Kempton (15:50) today. The gelding was successful over just short of three miles on his final start for Sue Smith at Hexham in May, having been campaigned at shorter trips prior to that. With easy ground putting stamina at a premium that day, there is little doubt that the son of Presenting had to get every yard of that trip to win, and he remains unexposed as a stayer. Kim Bailey has begun the autumn in fine style, with a flurry of wins, and while Highrate wasn't an expensive purchase from Trevor Hemmings, the seven-year-old looks the sort to pay his way this year.

This race is populated by runners with questions to answer, and Suburban Bay looks a poor favourite having failed to win since June 2011, despite being placed well by his trainer. He hinted at a revival last time, but is simply too easy to beat. Firm Order is also on a long losing run, and is another strong traveller who tends to find little at the business end. Moleskin is another to attract support, and can go well fresh, but looked on the downgrade last year, and hails from a yard still reeling from the travails of last autumn when laid low by the equine herpes virus. All in all, it looks a very winnable contest for the selection, and he'd be a clear favourite in my book.

The concluding novice hurdle also looks an open affair, but the horse to beat on form is Mick Channon's Warden Hill , who was a bumper winner on debut, and went down by the narrowest margin over hurdles at Ascot in April. That is solid form, and he looks more genuine that Master Benjamin, who has similar form in the book. A danger to all is Paul Nicholls' newcomer Howlongisafoot, but it's possible that this point winner is more of a long-term prospect (said to need plenty of cut), and the experience edge of Warden Hill swings the verdict in his favour.

Recommendations:

Both at Kempton

Back Highrate @ [5.8] in the 15:50 (NAP)

Back Warden Hill @ [5.2] in the 17:30 (NB)

Pantxoa To Outjump Cheltenham Rivals

Racing can be a pernicious business, as Alan King will surely testify. "Kingy" has endured a few frustrating seasons, and with the investment of mega-rich owners concentrating more and more on the Henderson/Nicholls axis, the pressure of competing at the top table with limited resources must be tough to cope with. That pressure has shown at times, but King is looking a more relaxed character of late, and he's seen an upturn in the fortunes of his Barbury Castle yard in recent months, with the promise of a more lucrative season ahead.

He can underline the rude health of his team by posting a victory on the opening day of Cheltenham's Showcase Meeting in the shape of the slick-jumping Pantxoa, who lines up in the Ryman Stationery Cheltenham Business Club Novices' Chase at 15:50. The fortunes of the son of Daliapour are something of a microcosm for the yard as a whole. He seemed to be treading water after a successful start for the stable in 2010, going fifteen runs without another win. Even a switch to fences didn't initially revive him, for all he ran respectably on his first few starts over the larger obstacles.

A switch to more positive tactics saw Pantxoa back in the winners' enclosure at Stratford in August, though, and that positivity has seen him transformed in 2 subsequent starts, showing plenty of dash to beat Twirling Magnet at Ffos Las, and taking another step forward when making all at Chepstow last time, racing with rare zest and jumping superbly on the whole. He's not the only one from the yard showing a new lease of life, and King has been operating at a conspicuously-healthy strike rate of 42% in recent months.

The reopposing Twirling Magnet has every chance on form, and his subsequent defeats have come against battle-hardened handicappers, with a poor run at Market Rasen last month easy enough to forgive, but the main danger may well be According To Trev, a winner at this meeting last year who has won a couple of modest events at Southwell this summer, but promises to do much better as he's fully tested.

The opening race at 14:10 is a fitting start to the season, with a sextet of talented runners on show. With the exception of the exposed Man of Leisure, all are open to improvement, and this is a contest with more strength in depth than recent renewals, notwithstanding the victory of The New One a year ago.

Pick of the bunch at present is Rum And Butter, and while I expect a couple of these to improve past him over the winter, he can take advantage of his superior experience to post a third win of the season. He has won twice at Newton Abbot since tried in cheekpieces, looking much more straightforward in the process, and improved again in defeat behind Kangaroo Court there last time. With that rival boosting the form by scoring again since, it's hard to argue that Rum And Butter shouldn't be a warm order back in novice company.

One of the reasons why Jonjo O'Neill's charge will be a bigger price than he should be today, is the fact that Newton Abbot is unable to escape its reputation as a "gaff track", but the management of that venue deserve huge credit for improving the quality of racing there in recent seasons, as well as other initiatives, such as the successful trial of the "one fit" padded hurdles which have looked nothing short of an absolute triumph this summer. So dish out the praise to Patrick Masterson and the BHA, and dish out the readies for Rum And Butter!

Recommendations:

Both at Cheltenham

Back Rum And Butter @ [3.95] in the 14:10 (NB)

Back Pantxoa @ [4.4] in the 15:50 (NAP)

McCoy Can Be Chepstow Hero

Today's always an exciting day in the Delargy household, not just because the Cesarewitch is one of my favourite Flat handicaps of them all, but that the Chepstow jumps card has long represented the start of the jumps season, since the days when the "Mercedes Benz" was the first big handicap chase of the autumn to be covered by the BBC cameras. ITV arrived a week or 2 later with the Charisma Gold Cup, and the winners (usually Broadheath and Everett in my youth) would be talked up as lively contenders for the Hennessy. Those were the days.

The other big race at Chepstow was the Timeform Free Handicap Hurdle, now run under the less-exalted title of Download The Betvictor App Hurdle, but the concept of a limited handicap for 4-y-o hurdlers is the same, and tens to produce a classy field year on year. The favourite in this renewal is Paul Nicholls' For Two, who is unexposed and has been talked up as a potential star by his media-savvy handler. His form doesn't entitle him to be favourite, however, and it's notable that he's not seen his races out as thoroughly as he might. Fences will be the making of him, but he's opposable today.

The form pick is Jonjo O'Neill's Another Hero, who hasn't had the same sort of campaign as most of his age, starting off in a bumper in June, and unbeaten on his first 4 starts all told. He was turned over on his handicap bow at Bangor last time, but wasn't suited by the way that race was run, and was far from disgraced in trying to concede weight to the useful Clondaw Draft, and the pair behind have run very well to be placed since, notably Splash of Ginge, who made Creepy pull out all the stops at Chepstow's last meeting.

Another Hero still has scope for further improvement bearing in mind that unlike most of his rivals, he was unraced on the Flat, and he can get back to winning ways with fitness guaranteed. He's one to remain positive about, not just today, but for the jumps season as a whole.

The old Mercedes Benz has also been renamed since my days in short trousers, and while the Follow Us On Twitter @betvictorracing Handicap Chase (17:45) doesn't have the same cachet, the quality of the field is well up to scratch.

The one who makes most appeal is the Emma Lavelle-trainer Court By Surprise, who is well treated on the form he showed when winning at Doncaster in December. The yard was under a cloud when he ran poorly twice in March, but while Charlie Longsdon is getting most of the headlines with his recent purple patch, Lavelle isn't slacking either, with her last eight runners producing six winners and a narrow (and painful) defeat for Qianshan Leader at Exeter on Thursday.

Court By Surprise, like several of Lavelle's recent winners, has remained on a winnable mark due to the stable's loss of form earlier in the year, and he can cause his trainer's smile to widen even further by bagging this valuable prize.

Recommendations:

Both at Chepstow

Back Another Hero @ [5.2] in the 16:45 (NAP)

Back Court By Surprise @ [7.0] in the 17:45 (NB)

Follow My Leader

The second half of the 2012/13 jumps season was largely forgettable for Emma Lavelle, with the yard's fortunes taking a dip after a promising start to the campaign, but the Andover trainer has reason to smile again, with victories for stable stalwarts Bouggler, Kangaroo Court and the exciting Claret Cloak in recent weeks, and whatever may have ailed the string in the spring seems to be forgotten now. The yard's record in the last fortnight is four wins from just nine runners, which augurs well for the season proper.

One who hasn't read the script of late, though, is Qianshan Leader, who returned from a break with a poor effort at Newton Abbot last time. It's easy to write him off now, with that effort bringing his record of non-completions to 3 from his last 5 starts. On the other hand, it's not hard to find excuses for the poor efforts in his record, with the absence of headgear suggesting he wasn't fully wound up for that return on what looks an unsuitable track. Back in cheekpieces and at a track where he's run well in the past, Qianshan Leader can bounce back, with genuinely fast ground, and an ease in class other positives to be gleaned on paper.

His opposition today isn't stiff, with the majority having plied their trade on the uncompetitive summer jumps circuit. Arguably the pick on form is Whistling Senator, who was bidding for a four-timer when runner-up at Uttoxeter last time, but is ominously weak in the market under a change of rider, and gives the impression he's done his winning for the time being, his temperament still a slight cause for concern, too, despite plundering those victories around Worcester's tight turns. The David Pipe pair are both unexposed, but are also less than fluent jumpers, with Standing Ovation the pick of the pair. There's little doubt that he's on a lenient mark, but Exeter is no place for a clumsy jumper, and these tricky fences will test him to the limit.

At Worcester, Dr Richard Newland's Bombadero (17:30) is worth backing to make up for an unlucky effort at Chepstow last week. Well backed and seemingly in control when losing his footing after jumping the second last, he looks overpriced in his bid to make amends in what is admittedly a better contest today. Biggest danger to the Newland runner is Nicky Henderson's Makari, who is best fresh and will be suited by the test of speed afforded by Worcester's tight track. Many will be put off by the fact that Tony McCoy deserts the selection after riding at Chepstow, but Sam Twiston-Davies is a more-than-able deputy.

Recommendations:

Back Qianshan Leader @ [6.6] in the 15:20 Exeter (NAP)

Back Bombadero @ [9.0] in the 17:30 Worcester (NB)

Junior Can Jump To It

It may be Arc day, but the Longchamp card is a nightmare for punters, and many of the races at the Parisian track have a habit of resembling bar-room brawls. For what it's worth, I think Treve will overcome a seemingly awkward draw in the big one, and that Spirit Quartz may surprise some better fancied sprinters in the Abbaye, but it's to Kelso I'm going for my main bet.

Presenting Junior looks nap material in the staying handicap chase at the Borders venue (16:15), for all the new layout makes the test a little sharper than it was. Martin Todhunter's charge won a modest affair at Hexham in June on just his third chase start, and showed much improved form when wearing down Oh Right at Cartmel (2m5f) last time, with the pair pulling sixteen lengths clear of the third in what had looked a closely-knit contest. The 6-y-o is a sound jumper who remains completely unexposed as a staying chaser, and will improve considerably in the coming months, so can be expected to take this prize on the way to considerably better things. 

Chicago Outfit looks a danger on his latest second to Amuse Me at Sedgefield, but that race rather fell apart, and the winner was beaten out of sight next time. Winter Alchemy would be a bigger threat as long as his latest effort (looked amiss over hurdles) was forgiven, but the best forecast option in the contest is the consistent, if limited Solway Dornal, and I'll be topping up my win bet with an exacta.

In the following contest, Sendiym will rightly be popular as he bids to follow up a recent win over fences, and the decision to switch to the smaller obstacles is shrewd on the face of it, as Dianne Sayer's gelding can race off the same mark as when an easy winner at Sedgefield. He is of similar merit in this discipline, and like so many from the yard, has thrived of late, going like the winner from a long way out last time, and looking to relish the task in hand. He's another who looks capable of winning at a better level than this lowly company, and is preferred to the unexposed Mister Mistopheles, who looks by far the biggest danger on paper, with the other a fairly motley bunch on balance.

Recommendations:

Both at Kelso

Back Presenting Junior @ 3.4 in the 16:15 (NAP)

Back Sendiym @ 3.1 in the 16:45 (NB)

Rain To Brighten Gloomy Day

Big fields are the order of the day at Ascot on Friday, and as with many end-of-season cards, it threatens to be a bookies' benefit. One race which looks weaker than the number suggest, though, is the opening 7f handicap, in which the majority of the field arrive on the pack of moderate efforts. Of the eighteen declared, only six have run to within ten pounds of their best form last time out, and as a result, the race looks very solvable from a betting perspective.

The sextet to arrive here on the back of solid efforts are Rebellious Guest, Myboyalfie, Bay Knight, Alfred Hutchinson, Levi Draper and Footstepsintherain. The middle pair are both handicapped up to their best at present, and are far from certain to appreciate a drop to 7f today, and of the four remaining, Rebellious Guest and the progressive Footstepsintherain may be the pair to focus on.

The former has been below form for a while, but ran creditably in the Jersey Stakes over C&D last year, and has generally been competing in much deeper company than this, hinting at a revival when dropped in class at Yarmouth last time. This represents a further ease in grade, and it would be no surprise to see him burst back to life as a result. He looks one to keep on side, but the runner who makes most appeal is David Lanigan's lightly raced Footstepsintherain, who has gone close on turf on several occasions this season, and regained winning ways dropped back to seven furlongs at Kempton last time.

I maintain that Kempton form has a tendency to be underrated, and there's little doubt that it's the AW venue of choice for the top southern yards, with races confined to younger horses often very competitive affairs. That notion paid off handsomely when Grayswood won for us at Bath on Monday, and Footstepsintherain can underline that belief by winning today. The key to his win last time wasn't the return to polytrack, but the drop back in trip, and he's now won both starts at seven furlongs, often accepted as a trip for specialists. Slower ground than he's met before is a slight worry, but that is factored into his price, and with so many of his rivals struggling for form, he looks a cracking bet.

At Hexham, the focus will be on the first running of the Campbell Gillies Memorial Chase at 16:05, which promises to be an emotional event for obvious reasons. The turnout is modest in terms of numbers, but the best horse is a remarkably backable price in the circumstances. Riskier is one of my favourite horses in training, and the Kier Park gelding can continue his progress by conceding weight all round. Not bred to be a chaser by any means, he's taken to the game with rare panache, and is a joy to behold as he pings his way around the northern gaffs, very much a poor man's Desert Orchid.

Riskier's exuberance was often his undoing in previous seasons, but he's much more the finished article now, and his days of finishing weakly due to overenthusiasm seem behind him, as he showed when keeping on dourly to score at Sedgefield in May. Fitness is a minor concern on his return, but he ought to jump Rhymers Ha' silly, and Prince Tam is another whose jumping will be tested by the spring-heeled grey. Mulligans Man is consistent, but hasn't really progressed since a good start for Donald McCain, and as such looks vulnerable from a handicapping perspective.

Recommendations:

Back Footstepsintherain @ [7.4] in the 14:00 Ascot (NAP)

Back Riskier @ [3.25] in the 16:05 Hexham (NB)