Saturday 15 June 2013

McDonald Can Farm Sandown Prize

James McDonald may be an unfamiliar name to UK punters, but the 21-year-old New Zealander has taken his home country by storm, and went close to winning the Melbourne Cup last year aboard 30/1 shot Fiorente (pictured). He's clearly a very talented rider, as evidenced by a haul of 16 Group 1 winners in Australasia and Hong Kong, and he can prove his mettle by scoring at Sandown today aboard Charlie Hills' Basseterre (14:30).

McDonald has already had a winner for Hills courtesy of Cable Bay at Leicester, and got an initial feel of Basseterre when the pair finished a creditable fourth over 1¼m at Newmarket last week in a race won by Niceofyoutotellme, travelling best of all before his effort flattened out in the last furlong or so. I think he's much better suited by a helter-skelter 1m, which suits his strong-travelling style, and he should get that scenario today. The apparent negatives which are holding his price up are the form of the Charlie Hills yard, the unfamiliarity of his rider, and a wide draw. The jockey has been covered, and I've discussed the draw over 1m at Sandown before - in April 2011, I said this:

"One of the great myths of the draw is that it's always an advantage to be drawn close to the rail on a round course. That's fine for Chester and the like, but a rail draw in handicaps over 1m at Sandown is often a curse, in large part because there is no rail on the immediate inside after the start. The natural jockeying for position causes more problems for those in what are now low stalls. As a result, horses drawn middle to high are often able to avoid scrimmaging and take a prominent pitch."

In terms of the yard's form, Hills has gone 20 runs since his last winner, which will immediately put many off, but winners tell only part of the story, and of that score of beaten horses, no less than 13 have made the frame, which is not the profile of a yard out of form. Back Basseterre to buck the stats.

The Scurry Stakes at 14:55 has been weakened by the absence of Smoothtalkinrascal, which appears to leave the way clear for the well-berthed Morawij, who ran so well in the Temple Stakes at Haydock last time. He certainly deserves his place at the head of the market, but I've long held the view that Sound of Guns would make a pattern-class sprinter, and I'm going to stick to my guns (pun intended) despite her disappointing showing at Newbury last time.

On that occasion, Ed Walker's filly couldn't make an impact having been restrained in rear, but circumstances conspired against the hold-up horses that day, and I'm willing to overlook that performance. She impressed me in defeat behind Rosdhu Queen last year, and again looked a good prospect in the Flying Childers on her final 2-y-o outing. Badly hampered in the Nell Gwyn, she still gives the impression that we've yet to see the standout performance that she's capable of, and a strong pace over Sandown's stiff 5f will mean she should have no excuses. Give her another chance.

Recommendations:

Both at Sandown

Back Basseterre @ [18.5] in the 14:20 (NAP)

Back Sound of Guns @ [6.8] in the 14:55 (NB)

Sunday 9 June 2013

Unrelenting Joy At The Curragh

Feature race at the Curragh today is the listed Trm Silver Stakes at 15:50, and the race is a fascinating one, insomuch as it allows a comparison of the classic generation against their elders prior to the traditional acid test provided by races like the Eclipse and King George. This is racing on a slightly lower plane, admittedly, but in the shape of horses like Trading Leather, Zand and Lines of Battle, the 3-y-o's hold a strong hand, and it would be a setback if that trio were beaten by more exposed older rivals.

That's also the story that the betting is telling, but the formbook is more circumspect, and while Trading Leather ties in very closely with the best of his generation (just beaten by the Derby second in the Dante before an excellent third in the Irish 2000 Guineas when ridden aggressively), the bare form of those performances leaves him slightly shy of the best of his older rivals. It's understandable why a horse who ran so well in Group 1 company last time should be favourite, but the market has lurched too far in favour of the 3-y-o's, and the front pair alone represent an 4/7 shot in the current market. The wise course of action is to oppose them at current odds, and the one who appeals most among the older horses is Captain Joy.

Tracey Collins charge races in the colours of Herb Stanley, more famous for his association with the top-notch chaser Merry Gale, but he has a smart sort on his hands in the shape of this son of Dark Angel. Best on either polytrack or fast ground, he rattled up a hat-trick at Dundalk on either side of a seasonal break, and finished an excellent staying-on second to Fiesolana in a competitive handicap at this track on Irish Guineas weekend despite a massive weight. He was never competitive when tried over C&D on his previous start, but is well worth another try at this trip. A draw in stall 1 is a big plus, especially as Trading Leather is widest of all, and that should ensure than Captain Joy gets a good pitch in the early stages, while the favourite may see more daylight than is ideal.

I'm also tempted to throw a few pennies each-way at Ansgar in the same race. He was well behind the selection here last time, but was most unlucky to end up where he did, absolutely tanking along on the rail when the early leader tired and fell into his lap, carrying him back to the rear of the field with his jockey powerless to take evasive action. He's still something of an outsider at listed level, but odds of 140 and bigger on Betfair are a massive insult, and he's capable of nabbing a place if getting the run of the race.

Willie Mullins has bigger fish to fry at Auteuil today, but can gain a Flat success courtesy of Levanto in the 16:50. The daughter of Lawman travelled best of all before getting tired on deep ground at Killarney on her return, and the winner of that race has since won off an official mark of 93. Her opening handicap mark of 84 looks extremely fair on that basis, and this polytrack winner will be much happier back on a sound surface. Being out of a half-sister to St Leger winner Rule of Law should mean that the step up to 1½m should suit, for all there is much more speed in the family than that one aspect would imply. Mullins would surely not step her up to this trip unless he felt she had the requisite stamina, and the decision to do so is likely to be vindicated.

Recommendations:

Both at the Curragh

Back Captain Joy @ [16.0] in the 15:50 (NAP)

Back Levanto @ [6.2] in the 16:50 (NB)

Friday 7 June 2013

Molly a Jolly Good Bet

The closing sprint handicap at Bath (17:45) today looks sure to be run at a frenetic pace, with more than half the field having made the running in similar events recently, and both the pace set-up and the nature of the track suggesting that the race will fall to one of the few hold-up performers in the race. Of those with such a running style, Danziger has underperformed on her last 2 starts, and hails from a yard which is going through a quiet spell of late. Amber Heights can be slowly away, and needs consideration, but is arguably best over slightly further (below best in 2 tries over C&D), and the one who makes most appeal is Molly Jones.
Derek Haydn-Jones' filly hasn't scored since making a winning debut in a nursery at Lingfield (turf), but she's fallen more than a stone below that mark, and has hinted strongly at a return to form over this C&D on her last 2 starts. Third to subsequent winner Chosen One here in April when unfancied, she built on that effort when going down only to the thriving Above The Stars last time. Her conqueror that day has gone on to win no less than 3 times since, and despite being 1 lb out of the weights here, Molly Jones still looks to be well treated on the basis of that run. Guaranteed the strong pace she needs once more, it will be a huge surprise if she doesn't go very close.
In contrast to the Bath contest, the Racing Excellence 'Hands and Heels' Apprentice Series Handicap at Lingfield (18:05) appears devoid of tactical pace, and the sole front runner is also partnered by the most tactically-astute jockey in the contest. Sinchiroka made all to win over 9.5f at Wolverhampton in March, and it's easy to forgive a poor effort when unable to dominate a stronger field on turf at Newbury last time. This task, against wholly-exposed rivals, is much more appropriate, and gives the promising Eoin Walsh a chance to showcase his burgeoning talent.  He should be able to set the pace to suit his own ends, and if doing so, will prove hard to peg back.
Recommendations:
Back Molly Jones @ 8.2 in the 17:45 Bath (NAP)
Back Sinchiroka @ 5.4 in the 18:05 Lingfield (NB)

Wednesday 5 June 2013

Mutual Can Benefit Punters

Best bet of the day on a rather mixed card at Ayr today is Sir Mark Prescott's rapidly improving handicapper Mutual Regard in the 15:10. This is much the best race of the day, and also features interesting types in the shape of Twelve Strings and Villa Royale. The pair look certain to gain further success for their excellent new yards, but they are bumping into one who is unbeaten in handicaps, and looks open to stacks of further improvement.

Mutual Regard has done his racing on AW surfaces to date, but that shouldn't be taken as a sign that he's a polytrack specialist. Having had a typical juvenile campaign for one from his yard (3 quick runs over inadequate trips at the back-end of 2011), he predictable improved as a 3-y-o, but was given plenty of time to come to himself, and by the time he made his handicap bow, the turf season was already drawing to a close.

In beating Miss Blakeney and Cool Sky at Kempton in November for his third win, he took a step forward against a pair who had looked fairly treated themselves. Subsequent events have shown that assessment to be accurate, with the vanquished duo going on to win 5 of their next 6 races in handicaps. Mutual Regard was turned out just 2 days later under a penalty, and won with ease from Thecornishcockney with a full 15 lengths back to the third. That form in itself makes him look one to follow again as a 4-y-o, especially as he's clearly a late-maturing type, but again the exploits of those he beat tells a story.

The gap back to the third suggested that this was either a race with no depth, or that the first 2 were both well handicapped. It hasn't taken long for the runner-up to provide the answer to that question, winning 4 of his subsequent starts last winter, and rising from a mark of 69 to a current BHA rating of 102. Having beaten Thecornishcockney in concession of weight, it's a reasonable assumption that the selection's current BHA mark of 83 underplays his ability, even accepting that the runner-up has shown marked improvement. Prescott has already pencilled in Luke Morris to ride Mutual Regard again at Newmarket on Saturday, and the hint must be taken.

Prescott saddles the odds on favourite in the opening contest, but it's unusual for him to switch one from handicaps back to maiden company and that isn't necessarily a positive sign. Khotan was a costly failure on return/handicap debut at Doncaster last month, hanging badly left under his talented young amateur rider when asked to win his race. It's quite possible that inexperience cost him there, but backing odds-on shots with an aversion to being in front is a costly business, and he may have found a tough opponent in Caledonia.

Jim Goldie has good reason to want a winner at Ayr today, and he's using this meeting as a platform for launching an expanded racing club. One of 4 horses to run in the club's colours today, it seems unlikely that Caledonia will be having a quiet spin, and this smart bumper performer looks to have bright prospects of getting his head in front at the second time of asking in this sphere.

He was a huge eyecatcher in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in March, pulling much too hard, and looking sure to be tailed off at one point, but he did remarkably well to finish in the first half of the field that day, something only a classy animal could do given such antics. A highly-creditable third in the Grade 2 event at Aintree in April underlined his potential, and he looks a decent tool for staying handicaps in time. A step up to 1m6f today will suit him much better than on his Flat debut at Thirsk, and he can upset the favourite at rewarding odds.  

Recommendations

Both at Ayr

Back Mutual Regard @ [4.0] in the 15:10 (NAP)

Back Caledonia @ [4.5] in the 14:10 (NB)