Best bet of the day on a rather mixed card at Ayr today is Sir Mark Prescott's rapidly improving handicapper Mutual Regard in the 15:10. This is much the best race of the day, and also features interesting types in the shape of Twelve Strings and Villa Royale. The pair look certain to gain further success for their excellent new yards, but they are bumping into one who is unbeaten in handicaps, and looks open to stacks of further improvement.
Mutual Regard has done his racing on AW surfaces to date, but that shouldn't be taken as a sign that he's a polytrack specialist. Having had a typical juvenile campaign for one from his yard (3 quick runs over inadequate trips at the back-end of 2011), he predictable improved as a 3-y-o, but was given plenty of time to come to himself, and by the time he made his handicap bow, the turf season was already drawing to a close.
In beating Miss Blakeney and Cool Sky at Kempton in November for his third win, he took a step forward against a pair who had looked fairly treated themselves. Subsequent events have shown that assessment to be accurate, with the vanquished duo going on to win 5 of their next 6 races in handicaps. Mutual Regard was turned out just 2 days later under a penalty, and won with ease from Thecornishcockney with a full 15 lengths back to the third. That form in itself makes him look one to follow again as a 4-y-o, especially as he's clearly a late-maturing type, but again the exploits of those he beat tells a story.
The gap back to the third suggested that this was either a race with no depth, or that the first 2 were both well handicapped. It hasn't taken long for the runner-up to provide the answer to that question, winning 4 of his subsequent starts last winter, and rising from a mark of 69 to a current BHA rating of 102. Having beaten Thecornishcockney in concession of weight, it's a reasonable assumption that the selection's current BHA mark of 83 underplays his ability, even accepting that the runner-up has shown marked improvement. Prescott has already pencilled in Luke Morris to ride Mutual Regard again at Newmarket on Saturday, and the hint must be taken.
Prescott saddles the odds on favourite in the opening contest, but it's unusual for him to switch one from handicaps back to maiden company and that isn't necessarily a positive sign. Khotan was a costly failure on return/handicap debut at Doncaster last month, hanging badly left under his talented young amateur rider when asked to win his race. It's quite possible that inexperience cost him there, but backing odds-on shots with an aversion to being in front is a costly business, and he may have found a tough opponent in Caledonia.
Jim Goldie has good reason to want a winner at Ayr today, and he's using this meeting as a platform for launching an expanded racing club. One of 4 horses to run in the club's colours today, it seems unlikely that Caledonia will be having a quiet spin, and this smart bumper performer looks to have bright prospects of getting his head in front at the second time of asking in this sphere.
He was a huge eyecatcher in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in March, pulling much too hard, and looking sure to be tailed off at one point, but he did remarkably well to finish in the first half of the field that day, something only a classy animal could do given such antics. A highly-creditable third in the Grade 2 event at Aintree in April underlined his potential, and he looks a decent tool for staying handicaps in time. A step up to 1m6f today will suit him much better than on his Flat debut at Thirsk, and he can upset the favourite at rewarding odds.
Recommendations
Both at Ayr
Back Mutual Regard @ [4.0] in the 15:10 (NAP)
Back Caledonia @ [4.5] in the 14:10 (NB)
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