Powerful Case For The Neglected

David O'Meara has been one of the success stories of the last few years, and the Irishman has gained a legion of fans among punters who have latched on to his prowess with handicappers, particularly those who have become jaded elsewhere.

It was a cracking day for followers of the yard yesterday, with Innocently, Mont Ras and The Codger all successful at Redcar, and it seems the operation is ready to move up a gear, with a host of entries at the weekend. O'Meara has a quartet at Musselburgh today, but the best he can hope for is a treble, with the stable going head to head in the 16:00 courtesy of Powerful Presence, who won the corresponding event last year, and impressive Newcastle winner Gandalak. The prevailing opinion among the betting public seems to be that Gandalak is the one to be with, and there is no doubt that he made a striking visual impression when routing his rivals over 6f last time, but there are reasons to be a bit more circumspect.

Newcastle is one of those tracks which often produces a "golden highway", where horses able to bounce out and grab the stands rail are never headed, and that has been a pattern at the track this season. Gandalak was drawn closest to that favoured rail when making all, and while he never looked in any danger, he's not the first to have performed such a feat, and plenty of his predecessors have been shown to be flattered by such tactics. It's perfectly possible that the yard's latest recruit isn't simply a hugely progressive sort who couldn't fail to win so well there, but it's a question which isn't really being asked, and I think it should be.

Gandalak is officially well-in under a penalty, but also has to contend with a combination of different factors, such as a step up to 7f, while the threat of rain on already-watered ground is also a potential hazard. With plenty of early pace inside him today, he's not assured of the lead, and given that the likely pacesetter is his stable companion Powerful Presence, it may well be that connections decide that patient tactics are best employed. With a tight right-handed bend to negotiate soon after the start, this is a sufficiently different test to Newcastle to make Gandalak an unappealing bet at close to even money.

Powerful Presence should be much shorter than his current odds on form, especially after a most encouraging return at Thirsk when appearing just in need of the run. He's slipped back to his last winning mark, and would surely be a popular choice to repeat last year's win if he wasn't deemed to be the stable's second string. Such animals are often summarily dismissed, as if it's a given that no trainer would stoop to "trying" with more than one runner, and betting shops are full of punters bitching when such neglected horses win, as if it wasn't their own stupidity which was to blame for the inflated prices.

In the 15:00, it's more than likely that O'Meara will taste success with the progressive Frontier Fighter, but while I wouldn't want to knock the chances of the topweight in any way, there is a case to be made at much bigger prices for Reve de Nuit. The son of Giant's Causeway rather lost his way on the Flat last year for Alan McCabe, but was sparked back to life last summer by a switch to hurdling, at least initially, and that can be put down to a routine change, caused either by the switch in codes, or the move to a new yard. His revival didn't last, although whether that is due to the novelty of hurdles wearing thin or that Sarah Humphrey's yard suffered a loss of form last autumn is a moot point.

Of more relevance is that owner Zia Wentworth has once again moved Reve de Nuit on, and while it won't be an easy task for Elaine Burke to keep the gelding sweet, she has at least inherited a potentially well-handicapped horse, and if he's going to do anything for the yard, it's likely to be on this reappearance. That's something of a gamble, but it's what betting is all about, and 22/1 is a juicy price should the theory be justified.

Recommendations:

Both at Musselburgh

Back Powerful Presence @ [5.7] in the 16:00 (NAP)

Back Reve de Nuit @ [24.0] in the 15:00 (NB)