Big fields are the order of the day at Ascot on Friday, and as with many end-of-season cards, it threatens to be a bookies' benefit. One race which looks weaker than the number suggest, though, is the opening 7f handicap, in which the majority of the field arrive on the pack of moderate efforts. Of the eighteen declared, only six have run to within ten pounds of their best form last time out, and as a result, the race looks very solvable from a betting perspective.
The sextet to arrive here on the back of solid efforts are Rebellious Guest, Myboyalfie, Bay Knight, Alfred Hutchinson, Levi Draper and Footstepsintherain. The middle pair are both handicapped up to their best at present, and are far from certain to appreciate a drop to 7f today, and of the four remaining, Rebellious Guest and the progressive Footstepsintherain may be the pair to focus on.
The former has been below form for a while, but ran creditably in the Jersey Stakes over C&D last year, and has generally been competing in much deeper company than this, hinting at a revival when dropped in class at Yarmouth last time. This represents a further ease in grade, and it would be no surprise to see him burst back to life as a result. He looks one to keep on side, but the runner who makes most appeal is David Lanigan's lightly raced Footstepsintherain, who has gone close on turf on several occasions this season, and regained winning ways dropped back to seven furlongs at Kempton last time.
I maintain that Kempton form has a tendency to be underrated, and there's little doubt that it's the AW venue of choice for the top southern yards, with races confined to younger horses often very competitive affairs. That notion paid off handsomely when Grayswood won for us at Bath on Monday, and Footstepsintherain can underline that belief by winning today. The key to his win last time wasn't the return to polytrack, but the drop back in trip, and he's now won both starts at seven furlongs, often accepted as a trip for specialists. Slower ground than he's met before is a slight worry, but that is factored into his price, and with so many of his rivals struggling for form, he looks a cracking bet.
At Hexham, the focus will be on the first running of the Campbell Gillies Memorial Chase at 16:05, which promises to be an emotional event for obvious reasons. The turnout is modest in terms of numbers, but the best horse is a remarkably backable price in the circumstances. Riskier is one of my favourite horses in training, and the Kier Park gelding can continue his progress by conceding weight all round. Not bred to be a chaser by any means, he's taken to the game with rare panache, and is a joy to behold as he pings his way around the northern gaffs, very much a poor man's Desert Orchid.
Riskier's exuberance was often his undoing in previous seasons, but he's much more the finished article now, and his days of finishing weakly due to overenthusiasm seem behind him, as he showed when keeping on dourly to score at Sedgefield in May. Fitness is a minor concern on his return, but he ought to jump Rhymers Ha' silly, and Prince Tam is another whose jumping will be tested by the spring-heeled grey. Mulligans Man is consistent, but hasn't really progressed since a good start for Donald McCain, and as such looks vulnerable from a handicapping perspective.
Recommendations:
Back Footstepsintherain @ [7.4] in the 14:00 Ascot (NAP)
Back Riskier @ [3.25] in the 16:05 Hexham (NB)
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