Saturday 21 September 2013

Remember You? You Bet!

If subliminal thinking is the formula for picking winners, then the Ayr Gold Cup should be straightforward today, as I've been finding myself singing the annoyingly catchy "Yes Sir, I Can Boogie" against my better judgement for the last 48 hours. I also had a surprisingly vivid dream once in which a bay horse in the familiar maroon and grey silks of the late Adair Catherwood bounded up the Aintree run-in in splendid (as opposed to Spendid - one for the anoraks there) isolation, but as I'm still holding a losing docket with Keen Leader written on it, it's safe to declare that lucid dreams aren't the key to punting success, either. Baccarat for a game of soldiers, I say.

On a more prosaic note, the formbook has been rather more useful in recent times, and while the cavalry charge at 15:50 appeals to many, it's the earlier race which look eminently more solvable. The opener is a 1m nursery in which recent Doncaster Braidley is called to action again, only this time the handicapper has attempted to take revenge, and many will baulk at the 10 lb rise which James Bethell's charge has been subject to. Makes no mistake, however, he was a class apart in what looked a competitive affair at Town Moor, and with his stamina for a mile already proven prior to that rout, he can find enough improvement to follow up. The switch from Ted Durcan to Graham Lee is hardly a negative, either, and while I respect the unexposed Light Weight, Braidley looks the clear pick, and should be nearer 11/4 that current odds of 9/2.

Sharestan is the strict form pick in the Doonside Cup, and will enjoy conditions at Ayr, but he had a decidedly anticlimactic campaign at Meydan earlier this year, and needs to bounce back to win this listed contest. Media Hype and Hajras are another pair returning from absence here, which complicates matters further. First Mohican has the best recent form, but he may need further than ten furlongs now, and it may pay to take a chance on Willie The Whipper despite a disappointing showing in the Great Voltigeur. A good sixth in the Prix du Jockey Club in June, having finished second in the Criterium de Saint Cloud last autumn, there's no denying that he has the class for this contest.

While the abiding memory of the Ebor Meeting is the rain that fell from Thursday evening onwards, it should be remembered that the meeting started on going close to firm, and several horses seemed to struggle with the lively surface. That comment applies to Willie The Whipper as much as anything, and the impression he gave was that he was unable to let himself down fully. Back on easy ground today, he can prove that form all wrong.

But the best is kept to last, and the nap vote on Saturday goes to David Wachman's Remember You in the Firth of Clyde Stakes at 15:15. Neither the Timeform figures nor official ratings have her at the top of the pile, but I'd be very surprised if her latest effort, when getting within 2 lengths of the much-vaunted Great White Eagle, doesn't look a few pounds better in retrospect than it does now. I've been hugely impressed by Aidan O'Brien's record-breaking Breeze-Up purchase, and I feel there is a strong possibility that he's much better than the bare form of his Round Tower win, and by inference, Remember You may also be underrated. Back against her own sex, she can enhance her own credentials, and those of her Curragh conqueror.

Recommendations:

All at Ayr

Back Braidley @ [5.4] in the 13:30 (NB)

Back Willie The Whipper @ [7.0] in the 14:05

Back Remember You @ [6.2] in the 15:15 (NAP)

3 comments:

  1. I thought you may have been whistling http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAyC4x3W0Fo to be honest.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Nice touch! After (R)Oisin Murphy's 4-timer yesterday, I've actually been listening to this, from his namesake: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXNPkhxnyn8

    ReplyDelete
  3. Nice touch! After (R)Oisin Murphy's 4-timer yesterday, I've actually been listening to this, from his namesake: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXNPkhxnyn8

    ReplyDelete