Monday 16 September 2013

Demolition Job!

Demolition is taken to upset better-fancied opponents in the 16:10 at Musselburgh today. Noel Wilson's son of Starborough is a clear pick at the weights in the nine furlong claimer, and it's hard to understand why one fixed-odds firm have him priced up at 7/1 this morning (but thanks, anyway). Many consider sellers and claimers to be the bottom end of the racing scale, but that's only occasionally true of the former, and well wide of the mark with the latter category. Claimers tend to make excellent betting mediums, as they are populated by horses specifically placed to win, and tend to provide plenty of collateral form.

This race is no exception, with the market being headed by the talented, if quirky, Extraterrestrial, who was beaten just a short head by Seattle Drive in a claimer over this trip at Carlisle last month. He's since gone on to land a similar event at Newcastle, and while he's long had the "one to treat with caution" tag, he had plenty of opportunity to shirk the issue last time, but kept on willingly to shade the verdict, and isn't doing anything wrong at present. I must admit, he was my immediate pick in this contest, but while I fear him more than any other runner in the race, the set-up simply suits Demolition too well to ignore.

Most of this field are hold-up performers, including Seattle Drive and Extraterrestrial, and there is a possibility that their jockeys will engage in a private battle of wits behind the early pace. That pace will be provided by Yorksters Prince, who is an inveterate front runner, and in good form to boot. It's hard to see him winning, given he'd have a much easier task in a handicap, but if the others allow him to poach ten lengths, then such considerations are rendered worthless.

The one horse who might ensure that Marjorie Fife's runner is kept honest is Demolition, who has done most of his winning over an extra furlong, and his usual style is to track the pace before pressing on in the last quarter mile, and his effort when third to the hugely-progressive Clon Brulee over a mile and a quarter at Ripon in May is easily the best form in this race. With the excellent Jason Hart on board, expect to see Demolition slipstream the leader in the early stages before kicking for home after the turn for home. If he times his effort right, he can draw the sting out of the finishers, and while I expect Extraterrestrial to loom up at some point, I'm hopeful that it will be a case of too little too late.

At Wolverhampton, the nursery at 15:30 may well boil down to a match between recent winners Relation Alexander and Starlight Serenade, with the former readily preferred despite carrying a penalty for her recent impressive win at Kempton. That represented a much-improved effort, but there is simply no questioning the form, with Paul d'Arcy's filly not getting any advantage in the run other than being able to race up the stands side (as a result of being forced wide), a ploy which is in vogue with winners at the Sunbury venue of late.

Relation Alexander has clearly been well campaigned for such events by d'Arcy, having shown only modest form in 3 qualifying runs, but the clock doesn't lie, and her timefigure was one of a performer who belongs in a better class than today's affair. She has nothing to fear from the majority of these, but the unexposed Starlight Serenade is a potential fly in the ointment, having won on just her second start at Salisbury. She travelled much the best there, but was seemed either green, or reluctant under pressure before getting her head in front on the line. She may well improve markedly, but I wan't to see her in a real battle before I trust her resolution.

Recommendations:

Back Demolition @ [5.9] in the 16:10 Musselburgh (NAP)

Back Relation Alexander @ [3.45] in the 15:30 Wolverhampton (NB)

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