When doing a shift on Timeform Radio
last week, I was asked by colleague Mark Grantham if I had any fancies over the
holiday period, or “Christmas presents”, to borrow his terminology. There are
several races which attract a flood of money over the festive period, including
the Ladbroke Hurdle, King George, and Welsh National, and I thought I’d try to
pick a selection in each of the 3 big events to provide some fun, and hopefully
a decent profit, to help offset the inevitable expenses.
In the Ladbroke Hurdle (Saturday,
Ascot), my allegiance is squarely with Claret
Cloak, a horse I’ve been very keen on since he won a bumper at Wincanton
last autumn. Emma Lavelle’s son of
Vinnie Roes hasn’t disappointed, and ran a race full of promise over the
Ladbroke C&D on his return. Racing closer than the pace than ideal, he
jumped boldly and briefly looked the winner as he kicked on approaching the
straight, but was worn down by Raya Star and It’s a Gimme. He will improve on
that performance, and the recent resurgence of the Lavelle yard has come just
in time. He’s trading at 17.0 on Betfair at present, and is likely to be much
shorter on the day given his profile.
The King George market has been thrown
into disarray by the news of a tendon injury to my original fancy Al Ferof, and
with Long Run looking increasingly vulnerable, the race has a much more open
look than normal. Long Run will go well if adopting forcing tactics which will
nullify the effect of his sloppy jumping (he’s fundamentally safe at his
fences, and will look better when allowed to do his own thing, I believe), but
there has been no suggestion that connections are keen to grasp this particular
nettle, and until they do, his lack of tactical speed will continue to be his
downfall. Riverside Theatre has obvious claims, given his ability to go well
fresh, while I believe that Cue Card is very much a 3-miler in the making, and
he’s another for the definitive shortlist. Of the others, Grands Crus has had
an awful preparation and is reluctantly passed over, Captain Chris is flattered
by his latest Ascot win and needs to jump straighter to improve on last year’s
third – he’s fast becoming the new Racing Demon. Kauto Stone is overrated, and
won a pretty substandard affair at Down Royal last time. Paul Nicholls was
convinced he was a 2-miler last year, and his insistence that he’s now a stayer
smacks of wishful thinking. Sizing Europe is an unlikely runner, and Finians
Rainbow needs to bounce back from a poor effort at Ascot. Sir Des Champs was described as 50/50 by Willie Mullins prior to Al
Ferof’s injury, and this race will suit him better than facing the frightening
Flemenstar again at Leopardstown, so he looks a fascinating contender. I
believe Mullins would prefer to avoid hock-deep ground, and that means that the
Jewson Chase hero must be considered more likely to turn up at Kempton. If he
does, he will start favourite, so I’m happy to chance him at around 14/1. Cue Card is an able substitute.
In the Welsh National, there seems to
be a generic lack of new blood, and it’s a race which is less competitive than
the numbers suggest. Rebecca Curtis has been up front with the fact that she’s
left National Hunt Chase winner Teaforthree short of peak in his 2 starts this season,
and he’s shaped very well in competitive events at Cheltenham and Newbury
without being unduly knocked about. He will surely be 100% when lining up for
what has been his main aim all year, and he won’t need to improve to go very
close. He’s an unoriginal selection, but looks something of a standout, so
can’t be ignored.
Recommended Bets:
Back Claret Cloak in the Ladbroke Hurdle @ [18.0]
Back Sir des Champs in the King George @ [15.0]
Back Teaforthree in the Welsh National @ [6.0]
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