Some uncompetitive racing at Lingfield
today sees opportunities for value hunting thin on the ground, but the race
with the most likeable shape to it comes at the end of the card, when Pat
Phelan’s Silly Billy can gain compensation
for a series of creditable efforts. He’s been in the frame on his last 5 starts
on polytrack, and has shaped better than the bare result on his last 3 runs,
too. Forced to wait for a gap before finishing strongly here last month, he
then helped force an overly-strong pace at Kempton before being pipped on the
line back at this venue. He’s sure to go well again, and while he’s not the
only pace angle in the race, the presence of inexperienced apprentices on both
Georgebernardshaw and Salient doesn’t
inspire confidence, and should one of the pair go off too hard (Salient in all
likelihood, given he’s tried in blinkers for the first time), it should allow
the more experienced Jake Payne to take back slightly before swooping early in
the straight. Main danger My Scat Daddy had little chance behind Bussa here
last time, but was put firmly in his place there, and looks to have nothing in
hand of the assessor on that evidence. Add to that a slight doubt about the
suitability of this trip, and he looks opposable. Several of the others are well
treated on their best efforts, but most arrive badly out of form, and this
looks a decent opportunity for Silly Billy to get back on the scoresheet.
In the 1½m handicap at 14:00, Sinchiroka appeals more of a pair of
last-time-out winners, and he looked an improved horse in a tongue tie when scoring
over 9.5f at Wolverhampton 10 days ago. Previously probe to weak finishing, he
stayed on strongly there, and shaped as if this longer trip would be within his
compass. Sweet Liberta also won last time, and by doing so belatedly broke her
duck, but while she looked perfectly willing in beating 13 others at Kempton
last time, that race looked much weaker than the numbers suggested, and a
penalty may well be enough to stop her. Sinchiroka
is the only obvious pace in the race today, and Jamie Goldstein should be able
to dominate on Jack Smith’s charge. Asia Minor is a potential fly in the
ointment after an improved effort on his handicap bow, but he’ll need to
improve again to score here.
Several others are of interest at
Lingfield, albeit at shorter prices, with Golden
Flower looking the closest thing to a banker on the card at 15:00, where
she will surely have too much speed for the gritty Equitania, while Marvelino, who is very much drinking in
the last chance saloon, can finally break his duck now dropped to 5f on
polytrack, and with headgear on to boot. A full breakdown can be found here: http://form.timeform.betfair.com/course?courseId=1.30
Recommended Bets:
Back Silly Billy in the 16:00 Lingfield
@ [4.50] (NAP)
Back Sinchiroka in the 14:00 Lingfield
@ [5.9] (NB)
No comments:
Post a Comment