Monday, 14 January 2013

Not Silly To Side With Billy


Some uncompetitive racing at Lingfield today sees opportunities for value hunting thin on the ground, but the race with the most likeable shape to it comes at the end of the card, when Pat Phelan’s Silly Billy can gain compensation for a series of creditable efforts. He’s been in the frame on his last 5 starts on polytrack, and has shaped better than the bare result on his last 3 runs, too. Forced to wait for a gap before finishing strongly here last month, he then helped force an overly-strong pace at Kempton before being pipped on the line back at this venue. He’s sure to go well again, and while he’s not the only pace angle in the race, the presence of inexperienced apprentices on both Georgebernardshaw and Salient  doesn’t inspire confidence, and should one of the pair go off too hard (Salient in all likelihood, given he’s tried in blinkers for the first time), it should allow the more experienced Jake Payne to take back slightly before swooping early in the straight. Main danger My Scat Daddy had little chance behind Bussa here last time, but was put firmly in his place there, and looks to have nothing in hand of the assessor on that evidence. Add to that a slight doubt about the suitability of this trip, and he looks opposable. Several of the others are well treated on their best efforts, but most arrive badly out of form, and this looks a decent opportunity for Silly Billy to get back on the scoresheet.

In the 1½m handicap at 14:00, Sinchiroka appeals more of a pair of last-time-out winners, and he looked an improved horse in a tongue tie when scoring over 9.5f at Wolverhampton 10 days ago. Previously probe to weak finishing, he stayed on strongly there, and shaped as if this longer trip would be within his compass. Sweet Liberta also won last time, and by doing so belatedly broke her duck, but while she looked perfectly willing in beating 13 others at Kempton last time, that race looked much weaker than the numbers suggested, and a penalty may well be enough to stop her. Sinchiroka is the only obvious pace in the race today, and Jamie Goldstein should be able to dominate on Jack Smith’s charge. Asia Minor is a potential fly in the ointment after an improved effort on his handicap bow, but he’ll need to improve again to score here.    

Several others are of interest at Lingfield, albeit at shorter prices, with Golden Flower looking the closest thing to a banker on the card at 15:00, where she will surely have too much speed for the gritty Equitania, while Marvelino, who is very much drinking in the last chance saloon, can finally break his duck now dropped to 5f on polytrack, and with headgear on to boot. A full breakdown can be found here: http://form.timeform.betfair.com/course?courseId=1.30

Recommended Bets:

Back Silly Billy  in the 16:00 Lingfield @ [4.50] (NAP)

Back Sinchiroka  in the 14:00 Lingfield @ [5.9] (NB)


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