Have Your House On Brick

With the clock firmly ticking on the countdown to the Cheltenham Festival, Kempton's Racing Plus-sponsored card has traditionally provided a last opportunity for the big yards to unleash their novice hurdle trump cards. It's a meeting which has seen a first UK sight of Triumph Hurdle winners Soldatino and Zarkandar in 2 of the last 3 years, and one which has played a big part in shaping the Triumph Hurdle result - its proximity to Cheltenham in terms of time much more important than the topography of the track. The Adonis Hurdle has been the historical Triumph prep race, but in recent years, the all-aged Dovecote Hurdle has also been dominated by the juvenile division, with Triumph favourite Grumeti beating Paul Nicholls' Dodging Bullets in 2012, and 2 of the previous 3 winners also 4-y-o's. 


This year, Nicholls has made no secret of the regard in which he holds Lac Fontana, and the ex-French gelding is owned by the same partnership of Jared Sullivan and Chris Giles, although it's the silks of Sullivan's company Potensis which he sports today. Bold words at Nicholls' pre-Festival press day have seen his Triumph odds clipped, and he is clear favourite for today's race based on that opinion, rather than what he achieved when runner-up in a distinctly ordinary Newbury novice first time out.  There's no doubt he's open to stacks of improvement, and the trainer's opinion is respected, but it seems to me that the outstanding candidate in this contest has been ignored simply because we already know how good he is. That horse is Brick Red, and he mustn't be underestimated.

Brick Red hasn’t come the traditional route to the Dovecote (Kempton 15:15), and isn’t a sexy, lightly-raced novice with an exotic history. He’s a hardened campaigner who made his hurdles debut almost a year ago, and has shown a liking for a sharp 2 miles on a flat, right-handed track. His impressive win in the Scottish County Hurdle at Musselburgh early this month is without doubt the strongest form on offer here, and he has ideal conditions to repeat that performance. Unlike Lac Fontana and Black Spirit, he doesn’t hold fancy entries in Grade 1 company at Cheltenham, with the County Hurdle his sole option. That has clearly put punters off him, but it really shouldn’t, as he’ll surely be primed for a big run, and while unlikely to take another leap forward in form terms, already has a comfortable cushion based on the published ratings. He’s a massive 27 lbs clear of Lac Fontana on the figures, even when taking weight-for-age and penalties into account, and simply should not be a bigger price than that rival. 

Of the others, former Hunt Cup winner Forgotten Voice had his stamina stretched when a fair fourth on his handicap bow over C&D last time. He’s will need a sharp 2m to be seen to best effect over hurdles, and today’s better ground will help him get home, but he really can’t be supported until showing he can channel his energy more efficiently. Black Spirit showed his best form on the Flat last autumn and has been nibbled at for the Supreme Novices’ on the back of positive home reports. Barry Geraghty will be otherwise engaged for that race, so Andrew Tinkler gets a feel of him today. He’s not one to dismiss as the yard’s neglected for that reason, but faces a stiff task on his first try over hurdles. That comment applies also to Figaro, for whom a long absence and lack of any big-race entries are both significant negatives. It’s interesting that Alan King pitches Fair Trade into this race, as he’s likely to blow a potentially lenient handicap mark if going close, but is another whose form is likely to take off at some stage this spring.  All in all, though, Brick Red looks much the safest bet. 

In the feature handicap at 15:50, I can't argue with the pair who head the market, with marginal preference for Rolling Aces, given Wyck Hill won't get an easy lead, but I will risk ridicule by sticking with a horse who let me down badly last time. Mister Hyde is arguably well named, with a good run often followed by a horror story, but I'm grateful to Dan Kelly for pointing out an interesting pattern in his form. Whether it's salient or mere coincidence is debatable, but all the gelding's poor runs have come when partnered by Richie McLernon, and the jockey was certainly at fault in going off like a scalded cat on this dubious stayer at Sandown last time. He did trade at odds on before capitulating there, and had earlier shown that Kempton's 3m trip suited ideally when storming clear under Jason Maguire at the King George meeting. He's an all-or-nothing character, but does appeal as a likely player on one of his going days, and he's nothing like the rag that his current odds suggest. 

Recommendations:

Back Brick Red in the 15:15 Kempton @ [4.0] (NAP)

Back Mister Hyde  in the 15:50 Kempton @ [50.0] (NB)