With the Cheltenham Festival now only
a few weeks away, expect to spend the next fortnight or so being bamboozled by “stats”
which will purportedly save you the trouble of looking at the reams of form on
offer for the all-important big races.
Some of this information will prove thought-provoking, while some, such
as the nugget I found last year telling me that “19 of the last 20 winners of
race X either raced prominently or were held up” are utter gibberish. The
fundamental truth is that the primary job in finding winners is to identify the
best horse, and to consider backing said horse when the price dictates.
That looks to be the case in the 15.20
at Fakenham today where Viva Steve
really ought to be a clear favourite, but is disputing that spot with Sound
Investment. Mick Channon’s son of Flemensfirth has much the best piece of form
on offer, and he pulled well clear of the others when second to If In Doubt at
Towcester last month. The winner that day had split a pair of subsequent scorers
in a strong Folkestone event previously, and plenty of those at Towcester look
better than the dead wood they appeared on the day. Race times can be hard to gauge
over jumps, but the time of that 2m event compared very favourably with the
C&D handicap on the card, and it’s undoubtedly solid. Towcester and
Fakenham could hardly be more different, but given that Viva Steve was a promising second on his sole bumper start at
Fontwell’s tight circuit, so that can hardly be used as a stick to beat him
with. The step up in trip is sure to suit on both pedigree and racecourse evidence,
and the standard he sets already surpasses the average required to win a race
of this nature according to historical evidence. The doubters will point out
that Channon is winnerless in the last fortnight, whereas Paul Nicholls (Sound
Investment) and David Pipe (Barney Cool) have had 17 winners between them in
the same timeframe. This would only be relevant if Channon’s team was genuinely
out of sorts, but the selection ran just a couple of weeks ago and outstripped
today’s rivals in terms of performance, while Channon’s last 4 runners have all
made the frame, with one of them denied in the very last stride. Sound
Investment is undoubtedly a danger, as he was well on top when winning a lesser
race at Taunton last time, and his third to Puffin Billy at Newbury reads well.
It’s worth bearing in mind that the runner-up that day was a massive outsider,
though, and the form is less solid that it first appears.
Sometimes the best horse isn’t the
best bet in a race, though, and it would be a stretch to call Arachnophobia a standout in the 15.05
at Lingfield, particularly given a losing run stretching back to March 2010. He
did bounce back to form behind a well-handicapped sort at Kempton last time,
and is the most obvious front runner in today’s line-up. With most of his main
rivals regularly being held up, this looks a good opportunity for Martin Bosley’s
gelding to return to winning ways, or at the very least trade at short odds in
the run. He’s traded at less than half his BSP on 4 of his last 5 starts, and
while not the force of old, it’s worth remembering that he has spent most of
his career competing at a higher level than this. Of the others to have led
recently, Baby Dottie did too much in front over 6f last time, and wouldn’t
have obvious claims of staying this longer trip if ridden in the same fashion,
while Hereford Boy is traditionally held up, and a flirtation with forcing the
pace over 1m here last time saw him finish weakly, so it remains to be seen
whether that experiment is continued. Arachnophobia
has gone well when held up before, so doesn’t have to lead, but it seems
such tactics will need to be under serious consideration again, given how
effective they proved at Kempton.
I’m not one to tip odds-on shots, but
the 4/5 on offer for Discovery Bay
in Lingfield’s opener looks much too big, and while the drop to a seller looks an
odd move, it’s perhaps significant that Charlie Swan also has him entered in a
much more competitive handicap on
tomorrow’s card. He looks a banker for
multiple bets, for those so inclined.
Recommended Bets:
Back Viva Steve in the 15:20 Fakenham
@ [3.45] (NAP)
Back Arachnophobia in the 15:05 Lingfield
@ [7.0] (NB)
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