Thursday, 14 March 2013

Reve It Up!


Once again, the feature races are where the winners look easiest to find, but the odds of reward may not be enough to tempt those punters who have so far eschewed the Willie Mullins rollercoaster. While Dynaste looks the one to beat in the opener at 13:30, Mullins is capable of spoiling the party with Aupcharlie, who hasn't been getting home over further, and will find conditions ideal here. The World Hurdle is no longer the penalty kick that it has been for a few years, but Reve de Sivola looks to have outstanding claims after beating Oscar Whisky in the Cleeve Hurdle on Trials Day.

Connections of the runner-up have given a couple of possible excuses for his defeat, such as a feeling he wasn't 100% and that the holding ground was against him, but the going was no kinder for the Nick Williams runner, who has been falsely talked of as a heavy-ground specialist. The fact remains that his outstanding efforts as a novice, both at Cheltenham and Punchestown, came on a lively surface, and he's a lot more adaptable than he's given credit for. Having also slammed last year's third, Smad Place, on his previous start, he should be a clear favourite for this event, but he simply isn't "sexy" enough to grab the wider public attention. He'll look a lot sexier at about half past three.

The Ryanair (14:40) can go to First Lieutenant, who has been involved in a tug-of-war between trainer Mouse Morris and owner Michael O'Leary regarding his target, and it appears that O'Leary has won out. I can't help feeling the gut of his trainer may have been proved right with a huge run in the Gold Cup, but a Ryanair win would obviously be sweet, if somewhat ironic, for the airline's boss. His form, both at the Festival (beat Rock On Ruby in the Neptune in 2011) and this season, where he's put it up to Bob's Worth and Tidal Bay, mark him down as the outstanding candidate for today's race. Cue Card can match him in pure form terms, but not in terms of adaptability, and he seems to need to dominate to show his best form.

If Joe Tizzard can get him into a rhythm off the pace, there is undeniably a big performance in him, but that must be a big "if" on the evidence of the King George, where such tactics saw the horse jump like a pig. Riverside Theatre is the reigning champion, but still looks a million to win when I watch the replay, and a repeat looks no more than a remote possibility, for all Barry Geraghty is a genius in the saddle.  

The handicaps are typically impossible looking, and the results so far have knocked the myth of the well-plotted good thing on the head. I put up Shutthefrontdoor as a likely Pertemps winner before he won a qualifier at Carlisle, and I will stick with him, despite his price collapsing earlier in the week, although I'm inclined to save on an outsider, of which Bakbenscher is arguably most appealing. With Alan King having a 1-2 yesterday in the Coral Cup, it seems odd that his runner here should be trading at around 50, despite some solid handicap form, and a profile that suggests he won't be fazed by the make-up of this race.

Ballynagour is a worthy favourite in the Byrne Group Plate, and isn't one I'd be keen to oppose, but I will once again throw a few shekels at Mister Hyde, who was a selection when falling in the Racing Plus Chase last time. Bless The Wings simply couldn't handle heavy ground last time, and the King runner completes by trifecta there.

The Kim Muir is a race I thought was ideal for Super Duty, but the McCain runners have disappointed this week, and there now look to be plenty of dangers. I have a sneaking suspicion that last year's second, Becauseicouldntsee has been campaigned with this race in mind (races off the same mark after an in-and-out campaign), and I'm likely to play him along with the overpriced Relax, who did too much in front at Sandown last time, and had earlier looked a handicapper to follow.

Cheltenham Recommendations:

Back Reve de Sivola in the 15:20 @ [6.0] (NAP)

Back First Lieutenant in the 14:40 @ [3.55] (NB)

Back Shutthefrontdoor in the 14:05 @ [8.2]

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