Scott Chaser Worth The Risk

Jeremy Scott has rightly gained a reputation for punching above his weight as a trainer of jumpers, and the fact that his Melodic Rendezvous has burst the bubble of several higher profile rivals en route to the Supreme Novices' Hurdle is testament to his skills.

Scott does very well with horses he's inherited from other yards, and gets a chance to show what he can do when saddling Risk in the 15:30 at Newbury, a novices' handicap chase over 2¾m. The 10-y-o gelding was a talented novice over hurdles, his best effort for Charlie Egerton being a defeat of the exciting William's Wishes at Fontwell. He's had his problems since then, and has only been seen under Rules twice since 2009. Those runs came in a pair of hunter chases last spring for the yard of Rilly Goschen, and he showed that much of his ability was intact in finishing third in above-average events at Stratford and Southwell. The latter contest pitched him in against 2 of the sharper hunters in the country in I Have Dreamed and Rash Move, and he wasn't disgraced despite being left behind by that pair in the latter stages.

The handicapper has been given a headscratcher with Risk, and has allotted him a mark of 107, which is harsh enough on the bare form he showed last year, but lenient based on what he achieved over hurdles. He's not one to take skinny odds about as a result, but in a race which looks tightly knit on the whole, he's one of few who could conceivably be on the wrong mark. Another is Representingceltic, who has shown promise in better company before finding his niche in jumpers' bumpers of late, and he would look a snip if able to translate that dash back to fences now. Sir Frank found only old favourite Denali Highway too strong at Huntingdon, and deservedly heads the market, but at odds of 25.0, it's worth taking a chance on Risk.

On a similar theme, the handicapper has had little chance to judge Henry Hurst (16:35) on his merits as a chaser, with the Toby Balding-owned gelding crashing out early on debut, and palpably out of his depth behind a quartet of Cheltenham Festival fancies at this track last time. Bred to be a chaser, and having already been placed in the point field, it seems very bold of the official assessor to allot Henry Hurst a mark 5 lb lower than the one off which he was a good third over hurdles at Worcester in May. It may prove that he's inferior in this sphere, but there simply isn't the evidence to suggest as much at this stage, and he's sure to be suited by the better ground he'll race on today (seems well suited to a sound surface over hurdles). His jumping is clearly a concern, but he did attack his fences with gusto at Taunton before tipping up, and his physical bearing mark him out as one who will do significantly better at some point. Hopefully he'll do so today.

Recommendations:

Both at Newbury

Back Risk in the 15:30 @ [25.0]

Back Henry Hurst in the 16:35 @ [12.0]