After the excesses of Saturday's racing, we're back to the relative famine familiar to summer racing aficionados, with just one scheduled Flat meeting in the afternoon. That meeting comes at Ayr, which is rarely less than tricky, but looks to offer up a couple of decent opportunities today.
The 6f handicap at 15:00 is an attractive betting event with half the field arriving on the back of modest efforts, and a couple not sure to be suited by conditions. Only 4 are of interest to me in terms of recent form, and those are Diamondhead, Circuitous, Rich Again and Opt Out. The first-named pair were second and third in a well-run event at Carlisle last month, and Circuitous went on to advertise the form of that contest when winning at the same venue last time. On revised terms, though Ed de Giles' runner should confirm earlier placings, and looks rock-solid.
Rich Again has continually caught the eye since a good second on Lingfield's polytrack in January, running respectably from poor draws on his next couple of starts, and stopped in his run when third to Pea Shooter after a break at Haydock a week ago. He'll come on for that, and remains relatively unexposed compared to most of his rivals here. The one who appeals most at current odds, however, is Opt Out.
Alistair Whillans' gelding is certainly not as solid an option as the trio mentioned above, and gets the Timeform squiggle to boot, but he's not short of ability, and hinted strongly at a return to form at Musselburgh last time. Opt Out travelled well in a race won by Red Baron at Musselburgh last time, but was never allowed to open up fully, with his rider switching on several occasions. Whether he met as much trouble as it seemed is open to debate, but he crossed the line with running left, and is clearly in good heart. His overall record suggests he's not certain to repeat that, but he needs to be backed at odds north of 20/1 currently.
How, or indeed whether, to save on the selection is worth some thought, and I would consider Diamondhead and Rich Again the main dangers, with the aforementioned Circuitous sure to give his running, and the veteran Beckermet arguably too big in the betting. Including the 5 in small-stakes exotics would be the way I'd go myself, but as the theme tune for Diff'rent Strokes goes "the world don't move to the beat of just one drum; what might be right for you, may not be right for some", and who could argue with that succinct wisdom?
The underrated Ed de Giles has double claims on the card, with Twenty One Choice holding solid claims in the 7f handicap at 16:00. This likeable gelding remains open to further progress, and was better than the bare result over a stiff 1m at Ascot last time, finishing a creditable fifth in any case, but looking value for a better position until his stamina ebbed away close home. The extended 7f at Ayr will suit this strong traveller ideally, and he's a confident choice to get back to winning ways from an identical mark.
In the 15:30, Strong Man is sure to go close in his bid to defy a penalty for winning at Catterick 5 days ago, but it's worth having a small interest on Eilean Mor (pronounced Ellen More, and Scots Gaelic for big island, rather than "Big Eileen", wich is not a kind thing to call a poor gelding). Mike Smith's charge was sent off at huge odds over 1m here a week ago, but was only narrowly beaten by a well-treated rival. That will be viewed as a fluke by most, but the performance is backed up by a respectable timefigure, and he can reward each-way support.
Recommendations:
All at Ayr
Back Opt Out @ [29.0] in the 15:00 (NAP)
Back Eilean Mor @ [8.6] in the 15:30
Back Twenty One Choice @ [3.35] in the 16:00 (NB)
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