Diplomatic Can Win Without Incident

In the last week, there has been a lot of discussion of jockeys, particularly with Tony McCoy's recent milestone, but also with Richard Hughes crowned as champion jockey, Jason Hart getting the apprentice title, and Oisin Murphy again looking a champion in waiting with another nerveless ride on Levitate. In that pantheon, all-weather champion is rather overlooked, but the reigning champ, Adam Kirby, looks set to regain that title, and can feather the nest of punters in the process, given how superbly he has ridden the AW tracks in the last couple of years.

Kirby has been nigh-on unstoppable of late, and is undoubtedly the most tactically astute rider on the winter circuit. His strike rate in all-aged handicaps this AW season is a stunning 50%, and he can improve that record when riding the thriving Diplomatic in Kempton's 15:20 today. Put simply, this is a much less competitive race than the numbers imply, and Diplomatic arrives in the form of his life, and seeking a C&D hat-trick.

His win over Havelovewilltravel here last month was franked when the runner-up scored next time, and he looked better than ever when weaving through to beat Lady Sylvia last time, a remarkable performance, as he'd conceded many lengths at the start when dropped in from a poor draw. He's better berthed today, and should have no trouble shrugging off a 3 lb rise in a similar class contest. Of his rivals, Wilfred Pickles has a woeful strike-rate in handicaps (1-27), while Whinging Willie has produced his best efforts over a couple of furlongs further. Catch The Cider is unexposed, and may be the one to give the selection most to do, but he's short enough in the betting based on actual achievement, for all he caught the eye finishing well from a poor position last time.

At Carlisle, it's worth forgiving Buddy Bolero a rare jumping lapse when he lines up in the graduation chase at 14:25. He was backed into favouritism for the competitive United House Gold Cup at Ascot on his return only to capsize at the third. Normally a sound jumper, he'll find the smaller field easier to cope with, and remains unexposed as a chaser. Cappa Bleu was a distant second in this race last year, and will again be brought along steadily en route to another crack at the Grand National, so the main danger is likely to be the novice Imperial Vic, who is both a sound jumper and a battler to boot. He'll not let David Pipe's charge have things easy, but the selection has the requisite class to concede weight, and ought to be clear favourite.

The handicap chase at 15:30 is a modest affair, with the majority having questions to answer. That comment applies to topweight Zaru, who has fallen on his last two starts, but he would have won by a long way on the first occasion, and was found to have burst a blood vessel when odds on next time. Such horses are almost always best caught fresh, and with the James Ewart stable in fine form, Zaru is expected to defy his impost against some poor opponents.

Tutchec heads the market, but his win in a similar C&D event last time owed much to a well-executed ride from Tony McCoy, and a 9 lb rise for that success looks harsh on balance, particularly with the champ unavailable now.

Recommendatiions:

Back Diplomatic @ [3.35] in the 15:20 Kempton (NAP)

Back Buddy Bolero @ [2.96] in the 14:25 Carlisle (NB)

Back Zaru @ [6.0] in the 15:30 Carlisle