Cheltenham Slog To Suit Coyaba

Exeter has already fallen foul of the weather on New Year's Day, and sister course Cheltenham is being lashed by wind and rain as I type. That tells us that there will be no hiding place up the famous hill, and stamina will be very much at a premium.

First bet of the day comes in the staying handicap chase at 12:45, where De La Bech can underline the notion that he's a stayer going places by beating more exposed rivals. He's yet to win beyond three miles, but looks a thorough stayer, and his defeat in the Badger Ales at Wincanton on his return was more about rustiness that a lack of stamina. Back to winning ways at Chepstow last time, he showed both a willing attitude and an excellent jumping technique, and those are assets which will continue to stand him in good stead. He's likely to either lead or dispute that position with Alfie Spinner, and while the myth persists that it's harder to do it from the front, the nature of the chase track at Cheltenham confers no disadvantage on front runners, with sound jumping and getting into a rhythm more important factors.

The main concern is whether Tom O'Brien will be spurred into going faster than ideal if harried by Tony McCoy on Alfie Spinner, but I expect the pair will be aware of such dangers, and a burn-up looks unlikely. The pair make most appeal, but Alfie Spinner is fully exposed and appeals more as a place-only play. The other one at the head of the market is Mendip Express, and he's unbeaten over fences having built up an excellent record between the flags. He's already an assured jumper, but the handicapper has taken no chances with his opening mark, and Bob Ford, who he beat last time, failed to do much for the form when well held on his handicap debut Haydock on Monday.

The other runner to make particular appeal on the card is Coyaba in the closing bumper. Martin Keighley's charge had been the subject of encouraging home reports before winning with great ease on his debut at Ffos Las, and he took a step forward in form terms when beating a previous winner at Towcester last time. Unlike most who contest junior bumpers, he's bred to stay further than two miles, and he looks best equipped of the principals to deal with what will be very tough conditions. Coyaba has nothing in hand of a couple of these on bare form, and most of the field are unexposed sorts capable of further progress, but he's made such a striking impression that he's a confident choice to extend his winning sequence.

Recommendations:

Both at Cheltenham

Back De La Bech @ [5.8] in the 12:45 (NB)

Back Coyaba @ [4.2] in the 15:40 (NAP)