Friday 10 January 2014

Ivanka A Banker

Like plenty of other Northern Ireland-based trainers, Noel Kelly has found it easier to place his horses in the north of England than in his homeland, and his runners over hurdles in the UK always need a second look, his six winners over timber in recent seasons coming at a respectable strike rate and providing a level stakes profit to backers. He sends a pair to Sedgefield today, and has genuine prospects of a double, with Ivanka arguably the pick.  

Ivanka contests the handicap hurdle at 15:15, and meets a motley bunch of opponents, pick of whom is Orlittlebylittle, but Donald McCain's runner has been on the sidelines for the best part of two years, and needs to prove he retains his old ability. Willie Hall is very well treated on his old form, and has shaped better than the bare result on his last 2 starts over hurdles, but appeals more as a back-to-lay project (can finish weakly), so Ivanka gets the verdict. She makes her handicap debut after contesting better races, and while her mark looks harsh on balance, she ran much her best race when third to a subsequent winner at Sligo in May, and that form looks better now than it did at the time, with a pair who finished behind her running creditably from higher marks in handicaps recently. She was far from knocked about by Derek Fox there, and improvement looks on the cards now she's obtained a mark. With most of her rivals either regressive or limited, she may not have to progress much to get off the mark.

Kelly's other runner also contests a weak handicap, and like Ivanka, Mia's Vic is less exposed than his rivals in the 14:15. Owned by Kelly's mother, Christina, the son of Old Vic showed his first form over fences when fourth in a beginners chase at Downpatrick last month, and was better than the result in a handicap at Leopardstown last time, paying the price for pressing on with one who'd gone off too hard in a race won by the well-handicapped Wrong Turn. He was still disputing the places between the last two fences there before fading, and he seems likely to be suited by the demands of the mimimum trip on testing ground, especially with Sedgefield's less demanding fences to cope with now. Pamak D'Airy is the strict form choice, but while another solid run looks on the cards, he's proved very hard to win with in recent times, and is best kept as a banker for placepots and exotics.

Recommendations:

Both at Sedgefield

Back Mia's Vic @ [4.6] in the 14:15 (NB)

Back Ivanka @ [8.2] in the 15:15 (NAP)

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