Back On Target At Sandown

Watching some of last week's Cheltenham action in the company of a couple of Timeform's finest, I made a bold-sounding prediction about one of the also-rans there, and being a man of my word, I feel obliged to stand up for that prediction in print. The gist was that Sew On Target, who finished fourth behind Wishfull Thinking, would prove a better horse when tackling a strongly-run two miles rather than the intermediate trip he's generally been campaigned at.

To my eye, the son of Needle Gun jumps and travels well enough to be competitive in a race like the Grand Annual, and I thought he was one of the more interesting longshots in such a race if he was to sneak in at the bottom of the weights. That's a view I repeated on a Cheltenham Preview Podcast in midweek, and it seems that the crunch has already come for such rash talk, as Colin Tizzard turns his charge out quickly in the final race at Sandown (16:10). The turnaround is a quick one, but today's contest is weak for the grade, and this is an opportunity for Sew On Target to prove to the handicapper that he's worth his place at the Festival. Given he's made the frame in a quartet of high-quality events at Cheltenham this term, he should find the drop in class drawing a bigger effort out of him today.

Of his rivals, only Last Shot and Un Anjou arrive on the back of creditable efforts, although Richard Newland is a shrewd one, and his Regal D'Estruval returns from a break having dropped in the weights. Last Shot is ten pounds above his last winning mark, and while Venetia Williams has a reputation for churning out winners on a Saturday, and over fences at Sandown, this fella looks to have hit his ceiling after fourteen starts in handicap chases. Un Anjou is less exposed, and merits his place at the head of the market having showed improved form since tried in cheekpieces. He's also climbing the weights, though, and hasn't been tackling the calibre of opposition that the selection has.

In the preceding contest, the handicapper has given a real chance to 2012 bet365 Gold Cup runner-up Roalco de Farges on his return from injury. In that contest he was no match for the revitalised Tidal Bay, but pulled well clear of the others before his attempts to match strides with the winner took their toll on the run-in. Not seen since, he could easily be coming back off a ten-pound higher mark, but the assessor has used discretion to drop him purely on account of his lay-off.

This policy of dropping horses in absentia makes perfect sense with horses who are already at their peak, and can be expected to deteriorate during the term of their absence, but Roalco de Farges was a novice when putting up that monster effort, and with only seven runs to his name over fences, looked set to hit a rating in the high 140s with normal progression. Given that Philip Hobbs is enjoying an excellent January with his older horses, now is the time to strike with the well-handicapped Roalco de Farges, for whom conditions look ideal.

Recommendations:

Both at Sandown

Back Roalco de Farges @ [9.4] in the 15:35 (NB)

Back Sew On Target @ [4.6] in the 16:10 (NAP)