Bumper Payout?

It's a bumper card in more ways than one at Kempton today, as the hurdle-less fixture is big on numbers, and also has the draw of Champion Hurdle fancy My Tent Or Yours. It would be a major shock if Nicky Henderson was to go home empty handed, and his record in bumpers both on turf and polytrack at the Sunbury venue is second to none. That said, the odds on offer about several of his runners already appear on the skinny side, and the likelihood is that punters thin on form clues will continue to steam into the yard's runners.

On that point, it's perhaps not a huge surprise that Grey Blue is favourite for the 15:35, but this former Mark Johnston inmate makes precious little appeal given his record. His sole win on the Flat came in a muddling maiden as a two-year-old, and he failed to progress when sent handicapping, for all he was runner-up on his final Flat outing. He ran just respectably switched to hurdles for his new yard at Kempton last month, and looks one of his stable's lesser lights. His stamina for today's extended trip is far from guaranteed, either, and there are several with better claims on paper. One of those is Koolala, who has much the best bumper form on offer, and remains unexposed, having scored impressively over hurdles at Uttoxeter in November. She has the assistance of Tony McCoy, and hails from a yard with a very good record on polytrack. She looks a solid selection with the favourite making the market, and probably has most to fear from Silsol, who ran well in a Flat handicap at the track last month, and ran a cracker in a handicap hurdle at Wincanton recently. I'd recommend pairing those in a reverse forecast/exacta.

In the opener, the big yards again dominate the betting, but the value lies in sticking with the criminally underrated Martin Hill yard, for whom Flamenco Lad looks a sporting bet. Again, he appears to have the best form on offer, albeit in a race with more unknowns, and had Sea Tiger more than eleven lengths behind when second to the ill-fated Adeupas D'Ycy at Exeter in December. Quite how Alan King's runner is shorter in the betting now is a puzzle, and while there may be something lurking among the newcomers, it would be a surprise if Flamenco Lad didn't trade significantly shorter in running. He travelled very sweetly in front at Exeter, and a repeat of those tactics will surely see him go well for a long way. Hopefully he can hang on this time, but a back-to-lay strategy looks the wisest option.

Another who can pay dividends for in-running players is Domtaline, who goes in the last at 17:10. He had only a length to spare over Daymar Bay over course and distance last time, and the latter will be fancied by many to turn the tables, but there are two factors which sway the verdict towards the Paul Nicholls-trained grey once more. Firstly, he is a very straightforward conveyance, and as such, the claim of jockey Alex Chadwick compensates to some degree for the penalty he must carry, and secondly, he is a much sweeter traveller than Emma Lavelle's runner, and that should be reflected in the in-play odds. Again, he looks a very viable win bet, but the probability of his trading odds on at some point means that it's prudent to play him as such.


Recommendations:

All at Kempton

Back Flamenco Lad @ [11.5] in the 13:30 (BTL)

Back Koolala @ [5.9] in the 15:35 (NAP)

Back Domtaline @ [4.0] in the 17:10 (BTL)