Rawley Can Knock 'em For Six

2.55 NEWCASTLE - BETFRED EIDER CHASE (4M1F)

The Eider is always one of the most gruelling contests in the chasing calendar, no more so that in 2011 when Companero won in one of the slowest finishes ever seen on a racecourse. Luckily, the weather has been kinder to the Northeast this year, and the prospect of the race being compromised by very testing ground is pretty much nil. My initial thought in examining the race was to concentrate on the bottom of the handicap, assuming that the task of carrying a big impost for over four miles would count against the classier contenders, but a look through the recent history of the race doesn’t bear this out, and it’s remarkable that no winner has carried less than eleven stone since Scotton Green at the turn of the century.

Wyck Hill and Portrait King are the last two winners of the contest, and will attempt a rare repeat (only Wyndburgh and Highland Wedding have followed up in the race’s history), while Shotgun Paddy is no stranger to conceding lumps to lesser rivals. So that trio will take their share of the market, but the vote goes to the less exposed KNOCKANRAWLEY, who is no ride for a boy, but looks all about stamina, and should relish this extreme trip after scoring at Newbury in December. Barely on the bridle at any stage that day, he nonetheless stayed on dourly from the last to beat Back In June and Financial Climate, and can only improve for a further increase in trip. The messages from the form are mixed, but the third had won the corresponding event in 2013, and went on to win his next start, which helps to give some solidity to that effort.

Jason Maguire rode at Newbury, but Andrew Thornton also knows him well, and his physical style suits the horse. Also in his favour is the fact that the majority of the field are prominent racers, and the race looks set up for one to come from further back, with Knockanrawley appearing the likeliest beneficiary on my reading of the race. Herdsman is another for whom the race shape is attractive, and Woodford County isn’t dismissed out of hand despite appearing not to stay in the Welsh National. His weak finish at Chepstow may well have been down to losing a shoe in the race, and the fact that Philip Hobbs is persevering at marathon trips is encouraging. Count Guido Deiro made mistakes under pressure when a selection at Sandown, and won’t get much room to manoeuvre if adopting forcing tactics again, but he remains capable of better, and his day will surely come.

Recommended:

2.55 Newcastle - 1pt e/w Knockanrawley @ 12/1 (various)

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