It’s something of a novelty to be
racing on ground described as good to soft over jumps, but that’s the scenario
at Doncaster today, and it means I can approach the racing with a little more
confidence. The horse which interests me most at the meeting is Grey Missile, a son of Derby second
Terimon trained by Jeremy Scott. Scott is an excellent placer of his horses as
was advertised by the fact that 40% of his runners over fences last season
finished in the first 2. That’s a stat many bigger names would kill for, and
while the overall strike-rate has dropped this term, the Dulverton handler has
bagged his first Grade 1 win courtesy of Melodic Rendezvous, and has his team
in excellent order. Grey Missile is
lightly raced for one his age, and has had just the solitary outing over
fences, when a respectable fourth at Taunton in a race not run to suit his
hold-up style. That experience won’t be lost on him, however, and he should
find the run of things more to his liking today, with Back Bob Back, Vosges and
Master Milan all likely to be prominent, and the result may depend to a large
degree on whether the first-named of that trio is able to settle into a rhythm
at the head of affairs. If, as expected, he’s hassled for the lead, then the
race looks set up for the hold-up horses, and Grey Missile in particular. The best of his hurdles form makes a
current mark of 110 look on the lenient side, and after only 5 starts over
obstacles, he ought to be open to further progress. It’s true that his jumping
will be tested against more experienced handicappers, and that aspect is
something of an unknown, but he’ll be ridden to get a good view of his
obstacles, and if jumping fluently, he’ll take plenty of beating. Gores Island
would be a big danger if jumping better than he did on his chase debut at
Newbury, but his overall profile is unconvincing, and his race-ending blunder
at the fourth last was one of a series of errors, and he was also very erratic
on his chase debut at Stratford, so isn’t one to go overboard about despite his
inherent talent.
The closing bumper at Doncaster looks
very competitive, but one who is sure to come in for plenty of support is the
Alan King runner, Lotus Pond. The
Beneficial gelding is from the family on smart staying chaser Keen Leader, and
was second to the highly-promising Red Devil Boys over C&D on his debut
last month. That effort reads well at first glance, but 2 factors make him look
a poor bet to me. Firstly, John Ferguson’s charge was almost on his knees after
meeting interference, but was still able to leave Lotus Pond trailing in his
wake, with some very poor looking animals not that far behind, and the form
(winner aside) looks pretty weak. Secondly, while his pedigree reads well at
first glance, Lotus Pond’s dam was of no account herself, and has produced 7
foals. Of those 7, only 3 have made the racecourse, and Lotus Pond was the
first to show any ability. It would be pleasing to think that he will take
after his dam’s half-brother and prove himself a smart jumper in time, but it’s
more realistic to assume he’ll be no better than he showed on debut, and the
bare form of that will see him struggle in any competitive event. He’s worth
laying for a place on that basis.
Recommended Bets:
Back Grey Missile in the 15:25 Doncaster @ [5.0] (NAP)
Lay Lotus Pond
for a place in the 15:55 Doncaster @ [2.4] (NB)
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