Friday, 11 January 2013

Royal Can Leave Backers Flush


There’s an old joke about a man who goes to his psychiatrist complaining that he sometimes dreams he’s a humble  teepee, but at other times imagines he’s a posh marquee. “What can this mean?” he pleads. “That’s simple,” says the doc, “you’re two tents.”  Cue much groaning.

There may be a point to this story, though, so bear with me. Highlight of the show at Huntingdon today appears to be the third outing over hurdles of the imposing My Tent Or Yours, and he will look a banker to many. If he shows the form which saw him put the smart Taquin de Seuil to the sword at Ascot in November, then he will prove hard to beat, but he’s managed to lose 3 races that he looked sure to win in his short career to date, and it’s fair to say there’s a touch of the Jekyll & Hyde about him (Two Tents, geddit?). He was twice beaten in bumpers last year having looked to be cruising on both occasions, and Tony McCoy was at pains to hold him up for as long as possible at Newbury last time, which again saw him trade short without quite getting on terms with the winner.  Owner J P McManus has recently shelled out a huge fee to buy the Supreme Novices’ favourite Jezki, which is hardly a vote of confidence in this fella, while he has developed a penchant for aiming one of his best novices at the Betfair Hurdle - Darlan was an unlucky loser last year, while Get Me Out of Here won in 2010, suggesting that the plan for My Tent Or Yours is a crack at that contest. He’s already been allotted a BHA mark of 140, but needs another run in order to meet the qualifying criteria for that Grade 3 handicap. An impressive win today will enable the handicapper to amend his rating upwards, and it’s safe to assume there will be no fireworks from McCoy today. Backing odds-on shots when victory is not a prerequisite is a risky business, and for that reason My Tent Or Yours cannot be entertained as a bet. If he wins, it will be by pouncing late, and his tendency to miss the last hurdle renders that tactic risky. Make no mistake, a fast-finishing second today is the ideal result for connections, for all an unimpressive win would fit the bill perfectly well.   

What’s the best way to approach the race, then? I’d be happy to lay the favourite at current odds, but given I’m no fan of John Ferguson’s Population, either, I’ll also look for something to back against that pair. The one which jumps off the page is Royal Guardsman, who won a decent bumper at Ascot last season for Colin Tizzard, and sits between My Tent Or Yours and Population on Timeform’s list of last season’s top bumper performers. The weight he receives from the favourite today helps offset that, and he has the physique of one who will do at least as well over hurdles. In need of his debut over obstacles at Newbury last month, he showed enough to suggest a move to owner Sue Nock’s small yard hasn’t seen his potential impaired, and he should be a fair bit shorter in the betting that he is.

Recommended Bets:

Back Royal Guardsman  in the 13:20 Huntingdon @ [9.0] (NAP)

Lay My Tent Or Yours  in the 13:20 Huntingdon @ [1.57]

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