Racing over jumps at Carlisle and
Ludlow today throws up a few betting opportunities, but arguably none better
than Shootin The Breeze in the
hunter chase at the Shropshire venue (16:25). The Ray Humphreys-owned gelding
has done the rounds in his short career, showing plenty of promise for David
Pipe before being transferred by his owner to the yard of Colm Murphy, for whom
he took the scalp of the highly-touted Gagewell Flyer when winning a beginners’
chase at Thurles a year ago. He impressed me with his scope that day, and again
when a creditable fourth on his handicap bow at Navan in March. It’s easy to
forgive a poor run when badly in need of his debut for Jane Western in a better
class hunter at Newbury last month, and that should put an edge on him. He’s
yet to be tried over 3m, and stamina may seem an issue given his win came over
2m, but he’s quite stoutly bred, being by Alderbrook out of an Old Vic mare. As
a lightly-raced 8-y-o, he remains open to improvement over fences, and is worth
backing to upset likely favourite Surenaga. Phil Rowley’s gelding had a
disappointing campaign last year, but did bounce back to form between the flags
when teaming up with Jane Williams and refitted with blinkers in May. His very
best form has come on lively ground, though, and he struggled in the mud on his
return at Haydock last term.
At Carlisle, the Pertemps Qualifier (16:05)
is arguably the most intriguing contest, and the horse which catches the eye is
Jonjo O’Neill’s Shutthefrontdoor.
Currently rated 135 by the official handicapper, it could be argued that he won’t
want to blow such a potentially lenient mark. A look back at last year’s final
of this event at Cheltenham shows that he would have missed the cut, and he
really needs to win, or run well in defeat, in order to get the mark he needs
to ensure a run. So far, the son of Accordion has been campaigned at around 2m,
but he is bred to improve for a longer trip, and while 25f is quite a step up,
it’s almost certain that there’s a lot more to come from him. Knockara Beau won
this event in 2011, and comes here after an excellent fourth in the Cleeve
Hurdle. That shows he’s a threat, but he was allowed to steal a march by the
starter at Cheltenham, and is flattered by the bare form of that effort. He
faces competition for the lead here from Don McCain’s Corrin Wood, and a
contested pace will count against the pair.
Recommended Bets:
Back Shootin The Breeze in the 16:25
Ludlow @ [8.2] (NAP)
Back Shutthefrontdoor in the 16:05 Carlisle @ [4.4] (NB)
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