Monday, 4 February 2013

Not Folly To Back Mulholland Mare


Jump racing on goodish ground is something of a novelty of late, but that is the prospect at Doncaster this afternoon when the key race is the listed 32red Hurdle in which Champion Hurdle contenders Darlan and Rock On Ruby clash. The move away from soft ground will suit both, for all Darlan took the Christmas Hurdle last time in gluepot conditions. He’s my idea of the likeliest winner, but that is reflected in a market price shy of even money, so I’ll look elsewhere for the best bet.

The closing handicap hurdle at 16:35 is a very ordinary affair despite the large field, and few can be seriously fancied. The most interesting runner is Jonjo O’Neill’s Mississippi Blues, who makes his handicap debut. Such runners from Jackdaws Castle have a habit of garnering lenient marks before showing much improved form, but anyone looking to back this one would need to ignore his latest outing at Huntingdon when he weakened abruptly before the race took shape in earnest. I’m inclined to look elsewhere, and Fran’s Folly makes plenty of appeal on her best form. She took time to find her feet last season, but ended the campaign with 2 meritorious performances, and was still in with every chance when falling at Wincanton in March. In need of the run when down the field on her return at Fontwell, she will strip fitter now, and will also appreciate the return to a sounder surface. With improvement to come, she looks a sporting bet at current odds.

Vintage Star looks an obvious starting point in the novice chase at 14:25, given his proven ability over fences and he looks the only obvious pace setter in today’s field. On second glance, however, he may struggle to contain Ruben Cotter who makes his chase debut for the in-form Paul Nicholls yard. His point win is a sign that he will outstrip hurdling ability now tackling regulation fences, and the horse he beat that day is none other than Drinmore Chase runner-up Dedigout. Ruben Cotter has the physique to suggest that he will make the grade as a chaser, and he shaped much better than the bare result when mid-field in a competitive handicap hurdle at Cheltenham’s Open meeting in November. In receipt of 7 lbs from Vintage Star, he’s expected to come out on top, and really should be trading as favourite.

Recommended Bets:

Back Fran’s Folly  in the 16:35 Doncaster @ [10.0]  (NAP)

Back Ruben Cotter  in the 14:25 Doncaster @ [3.05] (NB)



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