De Haan Runner A Stout Bet

Big fields are the order of the day at Wincanton, and while the racecourse debut of Best Mate's half-brother Pure Oxygen may be the highlight for many, it's the novice hurdles into which I prefer to dip my toes.

Strongest bet of the day is in the 16:05 in a race which appears to be a match between The Stout Italian and Karinga Dancer on hurdles form, with Even If adding a hint of intrigue in the McManus silks. Of the trio, it's easiest to rule out the last named, as the form of his bumper debut win hasn't worked out to well, and he shaped like a horse with physical problems last time. He's have claims if bouncing back, but Jonjo O'Neill's softly-softly approach with his novice hurdlers suggests he's one for a later date.

Karinga Dancer is marginal pick on the figures, but it's worth noting that the Fontwell event in which he finished second came back in November 2011, and in a race which was somewhat farcical, the front 2 poaching a big early lead. He's clearly been hard to train, and while successful in a jumpers' bumper at Kempton last time, isn't certain to build on that back on turf. On the other hand, The Stout Italian looks to be firmly on the up, and he matched his best bumper form when chasing home Utopian at Ludlow on his hurdles bow. That horse may have disappointed yesterday, but it's fair to say he received minimal assistance from the saddle, and he remains with some potential, so it was a decent effort for Ben de Haan's runner to pull clear with him off a slowish pace. There's little doubt in my mind that there's more to come from the son of Milan, and he already looks good enough to win an event of this nature. He should be clear favourite, and odds of 3.3 or thereabouts seem more than fair.

In the previous contest, the case for Oscar Zulu is a lot less obvious, but he makes plenty of appeal based on the impression he left in bumpers for James Motherway, and he shaped much better than the bare result in a bog at Taunton on his debut for Philip Hobbs in December. On that occasion he travelled smoothly in a dispute of the lead for a long way, and was looked after when getting tired and blundering 3 out. The Hobbs team are in very good form at present, and Oscar Zulu is capable of leaving that form well behind now.

Brinestine would be a danger on his Flat form, and has been talked of in glowing terms by Paul Nicholls, but he took a nasty fall when beaten on his hurdles bow in the Chatteris Fen at Huntingdon, and it's possible that will have left a mark. Titus Mills was behind The Stout Italian at Ludlow, where the slow pace would have suited, and he needs to do more, while the others have yet to achieve a great deal, for all a few are unexposed. Backing Oscar Zulu is undoubtedly something of a risk, but he is certainly well up to winning a novice hurdle, and looks too big in the early betting.

Recommendations:

Both at Wincanton

Back The Stout Italian in the 16:05 @ [3.25] (NAP)

Back Oscar Zulu in the 15:35 @ [16.5] (NB)