Whitney Can Prove a Hit

Most intriguing race of the day for me is the 19f handicap hurdle at Exeter (15:00), which looks fiendishly difficult at first glance. My conclusion on analysing the contest was that it would, in all likelihood, go to one of a trio of unexposed handicap debutants comprising Tolkein's Tango, Presenting Arms and Definite Dream. I still hold to that view, but I couldn't help being drawn to the claims of the lowly-rated Courting Whitney, who I believe is capable of outrunning her odds by some way.

Courting Whitney, a daughter of Witness Box, caught the eye a couple of times during the summer before winning on good ground at Worcester in July, her tendency to race smoothly often seeing her in-running price collapse quite briskly. She has been well held in 3 runs on unsuitably heavy ground this winter, but has now dropped to just 3 lb above her last winning mark. Even when pulled up at Wincanton last time, she did enough to tempt backers into taking single figures about her in the run, and with the drying ground very much in her favour, I envisage her running a big race at juicy odds. I will put her up as a straight win bet for simplicity, but I'd be disappointed if she doesn't provide a trading opportunity for those so inclined, and that, or an each-way play, seems the best way to profit from her.

At Newcastle, Phil Kirby can enhance a good recent record when saddling Matthew Riley in the opening novice hurdle (14:20). Kirby has recently taken over the yard from which Kate Walton used to operate, although the redoubtable Mrs Walton remains a major cog in the wheel at Sharp Hill. Matthew Riley was easily the best of this bunch in bumpers, finishing an excellent fourth in the Aintree Bumper behind Steps To Freedom and Montbazon, who both took high order as novice hurdlers last season. An absence of 23 months is clearly a concern, but connections have kept the faith with the son of Dr Massini, and his pedigree suggests he will do just as well over obstacles as in his previous sphere. The oddsmakers have taken something of a chance by making this talented sort a double-figure price, and it's worth chancing his fitness.

Recommendations:

Back Courting Whitney in the 15:00 Exeter @ [34.0] (NAP)

Back Matthew Riley in the 14:20 Newcastle @ [10.0] (NB)