Sunday, 7 April 2013

Old Favourite Dew A Win


It's hard to follow what was a memorable Grand National, and one in which the new broadcaster of the event rose impressively to a very difficult challenge, but today's Ascot meeting is not too shabby at all, and will hopefully provide us with a winner.

The first race which looks worth tackling is the 17f novices' handicap chase at 16:00. This is no shortage of pace in this contest, which will ensure a true-run race, and while my fancy Greywell Boy may seem at a potential disadvantage as one of the likely pacesetters, I'm actually quite confident that the run of the race will play to his strengths. Bred to be a staying chaser, he's shown more stamina than speed to win a pair of 2m novices from the front at Uttoxeter and Sandown, and has impressed with his jumping on each occasion.

There will clearly be no easy lead to be had here, while the move away from testing ground is also a concern on paper, but his form in bumpers/over hurdles showed that he needn't be disadvantaged by the faster ground or by racing further back than has been the case. There is no doubt that accurate jumping will be crucial in today's field, and Greywell Boy looks better equipped than most to deal with the demands of a fast-run Ascot chase.

Of the others, Tetlami will be suited by racing right handed on a sound surface, but hasn't looked a natural on any of his chase starts to date, and is likely to make mistakes at a strong pace, while Ballygarvey has twice run poorly when unable to dominate this season. A pace collapse is possible, and Jackie's Solitaire has the right running style to pick up the pieces, but as long as David Bass doesn't get carried away, then a slightly more patiently-ridden Greywell Boy looks the best bet in the race.

The veterans' handicap chase at 16:40 is a cracking contest of its type, and affords Tullamore Dew an opportunity to return belatedly to the winners enclosure. Sloppy jumping has stopped the son of Pistolet Bleu from being a force in the top handicaps, but there is no denying the quality of the engine under his rather battered bonnet, and there are plenty of reasons to believe that he can reward the support of his more patient supporters now.

Nick Gifford's gelding has caught the eye putting in good late work to be placed at Cheltenham on his last 2 starts, most recently in the JLT Specialty at the Festival meeting, and he's been dropped to a mark of 131, which is 8 lb lower than when an excellent second over this C&D last February. The excellent Tom Cannon is able to take a further 3 lb off his back, and he looks poised for a big run.

The gallant Fruity O'Rooney was a place behind the selection at Cheltenham after contesting an overly-strong pace, and has claims of reversing form if able to set easier fractions, but that prospect is far from certain with several others in the field who like to force the issue, and that set-up is again to the potential benefit of Tullamore Dew.

Recommendations:

Both at Ascot

Back Greywell Boy in the 16:00 @ [9.2] (NB)

Back Tullamore Dew in the 16:40 @ [6.6] (NAP)

No comments:

Post a Comment