Quipe The Faith

I had a moan about the weather the other day when unexpectedly heavy rain saw my intended nap taken out at Chepstow, causing a rethink on the card. Hopefully the work done there won't be wasted, as the horse in question, Quipe Me Posted turns out on what is described as good ground at Kempton (15:25) today.

Suzy Smith's charge has a rather chequered history, but looked a good prospect when winning on his second start for the yard at Newbury in March 2011, and found just a rampant Rileyev too strong next time. For whatever reason, he failed to fire at all last season, but the handicapper has handed him a lifeline with a hefty drop in the weights for a poor effort on his final start. That run came, somewhat ironically, in this corresponding event last spring.

An absence of a year can be viewed as a concern, but for a horse who clearly had a physical issue when last seen, it is likely to prove a blessing in disguise, and hopefully the time off has allowed his underrated handler to get him back to health. The fact he was due to race the other day, added to the retention of headgear indicate that this is no warm-up outing, and Quipe Me Posted looks primed to run for his life. He's now 9 lb below his winning mark and has shown in the past that he can go well fresh. This has the look of a do-or-die venture, but he's too well treated to ignore, and merits the nap vote at what look generous odds.

At Southwell, I've had a good look at the 16:25, which looks a really competitive race for the track. There are several with solid course form who look set to make the market, but I'll risk ridicule by putting up a pair unproven on fibresand as selections. The main hope is Al Khan, who was only seventh of 9 on his course debut last time, and on the face of it has plenty to prove.

A closer look at that effort tells a different story, however. Dropped to an inadequate 5f there, Vi Jordan's charge was slowly away, which compounded the stiffness of his task. His race was effectively over after a furlong, but he closed up markedly on the front runners in the latter stages to indicate that he handled the surface perfectly well. A return to 7f will suit him ideally, and he still looks on a workable mark. The likes of Half A Billion, Caldercruix and Hellbender are respected on course form, but none of that trio can be described as well handicapped, and the progressive Al Khan rates a value bet.

It may also pay to have a saver on Lieutenant Dan at current odds despite his lack of experience at the track. Mick Appleby's runners all seem to improve for a switch to this surface, and while the son of Danroad has a bit to find on form, there must be the possibility that he can do so now belatedly trying fibresand, and those laying him at 20.0 and above are taking a huge risk.

Recommendations:

Back Quipe Me Posted @ [8.8] in the 15:25 Kempton (NAP)

Back Al Khan & Lieutenant Dan @ [6.6] and [20.0] in the 16:25 Southwell