Friday 19 April 2013

Yours, Sincerely


One of the highlights of a couple of days at Cheltenham this week was the victory of Peter Bowen's Big Time Billy in the 21f mares' handicap hurdle, and her victory provides a pointer to the chances of a couple of runners at Fontwell today.

The horse Big Time Billy beat last time was Occasionally Yours, and Alan Blackmore's runner was a long way clear of the third in that 23f Fakenham handicap. He proved that form to be strong when winning over a shorter trip at Fontwell last time by no less than 20 lengths, and while he takes another drop in trip today (14:50 Fontwell), a mandatory penalty isn't enough to stop him if in the same form. He's clearly back to himself having rather lost his way last season, but is still much lower in the weights than when winning at Worcester in the summer of 2011, and his penalty sees him well-in to the tune of 7 lb, a figure which could well be higher if the assessor was to take his Fakenham conqueror's latest run into consideration. His claims are there for all to see, so it's somewhat surprising to see him trade as big as 7/2 on Betfair this morning.

Big Time Billy wasn't the only winner at Cheltenham during the week who looked well treated on bumper form, with Lower Hope Dandy belatedly backing up the impression he'd made in such races to prove his opening mark was very lenient, and the hurdles assessor's refusal to use bumper form as a benchmark for his ratings means that such scenarios crop up on a regular basis. Bright Light (16:00 Fontwell) isn't the most blinding example of this trend, but she did run well when second in a course bumper last season, and is surely better than the poor form she's shown over hurdles to date.

Richard Phillips' mare has been soundly beaten to date over timber, albeit in races she wouldn't be expected to win, and is bred to do much better somewhere down the line, with the likes of Hurricane Lamp and Martins Lamp having done well for their owner-breeder Sue Welch. Mrs Welch would presumably be delighted to utilise Bright Light as a broodmare given the family's exploits, but would prefer to get a win under her belt. If the daughter of Exit To Knowhere can't win off a mark of 69, then she'll struggle to get her head in front at all, so this looks the best opportunity she'll ever get. The yard isn't prolific these days, but a winner at the weekend is a positive sign, and Bright Light is worth an interest in a poor race.

Recommendations:

Both at Fontwell

Back Occasionally Yours @ [4.3] in the 14:50 (NAP)

Back Bright Light @ [5.6] in the 16:00 (NB)

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