I Am Legend

I can now say that I'm heartily sick of the 2013/14 winter, particularly as far as predicting the outcome of national hunt races in Britain is concerned. Backing horses unproven on bad ground is inadvisable, but sticking with proven heavy-ground form is also risky, with plenty of winners failing to run to form in the same conditions next time, due either to the fact that they are flattered by wide-margin successes, or that they are bottomed by hard races. A fine example of this was the heavy defeat of the gambled-on Mendip Express at Newbury yesterday. He was closely matched with his main rivals, but was all the rage having won at Cheltenham on New Year's Day in seemingly identical conditions (standing water on already heavy ground, with fences bypassed). The result was that he ran well below form with the trainer proffering the excuse that he didn't handle the conditions! This sounds nonsense, but is almost certainly true, as the going at Cheltenham was fresh, if very wet, but thoroughly churned up at Newbury. As an aside, Will Biddick spared the gelding a hard race, and the decision of one particular firm to knock him out to 16/1 for the 4-miler next month was bonkers. Back him while the madness lasts.

I fancy a couple of the Exeter card, of whom Dungeness looks the standout, but he's a short price, and such an approach has proved disastrous in recent times, so I'll head to the top-notch card at Leopardstown, where the turf is marginally less soggy, and the prices more attractive.

All the major races merit a mention, starting with the Spring Juvenile, in which Ivan Grozny looks a poor favourite on the evidence of the formbook, for all he's the pick of a trio for Willie Mullins, with the other pair both having higher Timeform ratings. He is closely matched with Plinth on debut running, and while the pair are sure to improve, there is better form available, notably from Guitar Pete. Dessie Hughes' gelding has improved for a visor, and was runner-up in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in November. That second was sandwiched by wins at Down Royal and Leopardstown, and while the form marks him out as a solid, rather than spectacular performer, it certainly entitles him to be much shorter in the betting than his current odds. If Ivan Grozny is Mullins' best juvenile, then he is rightly feared, but hard form beats gallops reports more often than not.

I expect the under-appreciated The Tullow Tank to prove himself much the best of the Irish novice hurdlers by winning the Deloitte at 14:15, but he's well found in the market at current odds, and would only appeal if the Mullins factor saw sustained support for Vautour. Make no mistake that while Philip Fenton's charge has taken time to catch the nations' consciousness in Ireland, he's fast making up for that, and has all the hallmarkes of a massive patriotic gamble in the Supreme Novices' should he pass this final test.

Carlingford Lough would have preferred a bigger field in the P J Moriarty, but he's another who hasn't had all the credit he deserves having landed the Galway Plate as a raw novice. He improved again by winning the Grade 1 Topaz over three miles last time, and is a more reliable medium that either Don Cossack or Ballycasey. The latter hasn't had a smooth preparation for this, and can be expected to improve for the run, while Don Cossack is sure to be heavily supported having beaten Carlingford Lough at Fairyhouse last time. He looked beaten before a late rally there, though, and it's possible that the second just needed the run after a break, so there ought to be nothing between them in the market. The selection is another to appeal for Cheltenham even if beaten here, as he's one of the very few novices around who has the experience of competitive big-field races, and he's shown that he's more versatile than most in terms of tactics.

In the Irish Hennessy, there is no doubt that First Lieutenant is the one to beat on form, but his strike-rate really isn't what it might be for a potential Gold Cup winner, and he's now lost thirteen of his last fourteen over fences. That, and the fact that he seems to need faster ground, is enough to make him a lay. Tidal Bay would have the statisticians spinning if he scored in a Grade 1 at the age of thirteen, but if he gets beaten today, it certainly won't be because he's suddenly remembered he should be collecting his pension instead. Last Instalment is respected despite being deserted by Bryan Cooper, but I only have eyes for one horse here.

I've long been a big fan, and fully expect Lyreen Legend to post the top-class effort I've always believed him to be capable of in big race. A gallant fourth behind a pair of today's rivals in last year's P J Moriarty, he impressed me with how he rallied over that shorter trip, and he ran a cracker under an unusually tentative Bryan Cooper in last year's RSA, when only finding Lord Windermere too strong. Given he's twice lost out to that rival, some may be surprised that he's shorter in the betting here, but the form of Jim Culloty's yard is nothing short of shocking, and militates against the chances of Dr Ronan Lambe's runner here. Lyreen Legend hasn't seen his early season go as planned, having missed an engagement in the John Durkan due to a training setback. He was seemingly well short of peak condition when behind Bobs Worth in the Lexus, and can be expected to take a big leap forward with that run behind him. He may improve again for today's run, and a tickle in the Gold Cup market is not a crazy idea, by any means.

Recommendations:

All at Leopardstown

Back Guitar Pete @ [8.0] in the 13:15

Back Carlingford Lough @ [3.85] in the 14:45

Back Lyreen Legend @ [7.6] in the 15:50 (NAP)