Be A Bridge Jumper

In US betting slang a "bridge-jumper" is someone who bets heavily on the biggest certainties - usually on the show pool for short-priced favourites, where the returns are poor, but the chance of collecting is huge. The term is in rather poor taste, hinting at the dire consequences of such a bet losing for a desperate punter. I'm certainly not advocating a bet of that ilk today, but the jumps debut of the mudlark Albert Bridge (Kempton 14:00) looks an appropriate betting opportunity for savvy punters on a day when the ability to handle deep ground will be more important than recent form.

Albert Bridge was a useful stayer on the Flat for Ralph Beckett, winning over thirteen furlongs at Ayr in the autumn of 2012, and was better than ever last autumn, running an excellent second over an extended two miles there in September. He was also runner-up in the Leopardstown November Handicap on his only start on heavy, and has all the attributes needed to become an exciting hurdler. Of the others in today's race, only Strollaway has solid form on heavy ground, and underfoot conditions are a huge concern for the Timeform top-rated runner, No Substitute. With fitness never a concern for Emma Lavelle's hurdling debutants, and in receipt of weight from his chief rival, he can make a winning start in his new sphere.

The following contest is trappy, with our old friend Ultragold begging to be given another chance, and my comments after his last outing at Wincanton are still valid - he will have much more chance of seeing things out if connections grasp the nettle and let him run from the front. With the drop back in trip today, it's very possible that Joe Tizzard will indeed make more use of the frustrating son of Kapgarde, and that would change my view of the race, so punters need to be aware of how tactics can change the complexion of this contest. It's possible that the Tizzard runner will finish weakly no matter what trip or tactics are tried of course, and he'd have Notarfbad to contend with if attempting to make all, so the percentage call pre-race is to look elsewhere, and there is nowhere better to look when the going is like a swamp that Venetia Williams.

Lucky Sunny has not been with the Williams yard long, which is often important when analysing the chances of improvement from her runners, and despite nudging veteran status now, he showed that there were races to be won with him when third at Catterick last month, beaten by a combination of over-aggressive tactics and sloppy jumping in the straight. That was just his second run in a year, and he will strip fitter again. He should get a good tow into the contest, and with his best career effort coming on heavy ground, he has plenty to recommend him.

Recommendations:

Both at Kempton

Back Albert Bridge @ [3.55] in the 14:00 (NAP)

Back Lucky Sunny @ [4.7] in the 14:30 (NB)