Continuing heavy ground is playing havoc with the jumps season, but at least the meetings at Carlisle and Ludlow have passed inspections, albeit with underfoot conditions again very taxing. Most appealing race of the day at Carlisle is the novices limited handicap chase at 15:30, and the exciting Clondaw Knight is expected to stamp his authority on his way to much better things.
The son of Heron Island attracted minimal attention when first passing through the sales ring, but he saw a few ears prick up when a facile winner of his completed start in Irish points (set to score on debut when falling), and was bought by Tom Malone on behalf of owner Sandy Seymour in August 2012 as a replacement of the ill-fated Brindisi Breeze who had looked set for superstardom only to meet with a bizarre accident earlier that summer. The price tag of £140,000 was hefty, and didn't look a great investment based on the horse's early showings, but he's taken time to acclimatise to a new routine, and looked a different prospect altogether when switched to fences at Kelso in November.
On that occasion, he jumped impeccably, and had moved himself effortlessly into the lead after the third last fence, eventually coasting home ahead of Suprise Vendor. He's not been seen since, but that form could not have worked out better, with four of the next five home winning next time, and Suprise Vendor himself landing his next 2 starts. The vagaries of the handicapping system mean that Suprise Vendor is now worse off at the weights with Clondaw Knight, and it's fair to say that a twelve pound rise for that Kelso demolition could easily have been thirty based on the ease of victory and the subsequent exploits of the beaten horses.
Main danger on paper is Supreme Asset, who was runner-up at Haydock last time having travelled and jumped best throughout. That made him look one to be interested in, but there wasn't much between the first four home in that small-field contest, and those to have run since have only served to tarnish the form of that contest, with the winner Bobcat Billy and fourth-placed Presence Felt both finishing dead last on their next outings. Whether that's a sign that conditions were taking their toll, or that the form is suspect, it would be folly to back Supreme Asset at skinny odds now.
In the handicap hurdle at 16:00, it's hard to oppose Next Hight, who is a typical slow-burner from the Sue Smith yard. A one-time useful maiden for Peter Schiergen in Germany, he's taken time to find his feet, but hit form with a bang when scoring easily in the mud at Sedgefield last month with W Six Times back in third. That horse narrowly failed to land a gamble at Ayr the other day, and the form looks solid. With his form on the level suggesting he retains plenty of scope for better in this sphere, he's worth siding with despite the obligatory hike in the weights. Twoways is clearly suited by a stiff track, and appeals as the one for forecast punters after scoring in similar conditions at Towcester recently.
Smith has her team in good heart at present, and can complete a double courtesy of Baltic Pathfinder in the concluding contest. He's often let down by his jumping, and it's no coincidence that a recent return to form came over Sedgefield's easy obstacles, where he won by twenty lengths. The assessor hasn't gone overboard, and a five-pound rise is no great inconvenience. Of more import today are the conditions, with heavy ground clearly holding no fears, while Carlisle's fences are the softest in the country, which will help no end.
Recommendations:
All at Carlisle
Back Clondaw Knight @ [3.15] in the 15:30 (NAP)
Back Next Hight @ [3.2] in the 16:00 (NB)
Back Baltic Pathfinder @ [5.0] in the 16:30
No comments:
Post a Comment