3.10 BETBRIGHT MOBILE APP HANDICAP HURDLE (3M110Y)
Best bet on the card at Doncaster is Nicky Henderson’s CALL THE COPS, who caught my eye in no uncertain terms in a Pertemps Qualifier at Kempton in October, looking a handicap winner in waiting. Outpaced when the tempo increased before the second last that day, he began to put in some good late work without Barry Geraghty getting too serious with him, and eventually finished fourth, well in front of subsequent Exeter winner Master Malt. That effort marked him out as a major player in the series final, but there was a suggestion at the official weights launch in midweek, that he’d be in danger of missing the cut. That eventuality would be a disaster for the carefully laid plans of connections, so it appears they are attempting to ensure his place by picking up a penalty. That’s clearly a slightly risky strategy in terms of his Cheltenham prospects, where every ounce counts, but it’s a massive positive for his backers at Doncaster, where he will be given every chance of winning.
3.35 PREMIER TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT HANDICAP CHASE (2M5F110Y)
It’s time to don my “I Heart Sandy Thomson” cap, as I once again row in with OSCAR LATEEN, who unseated when a selection in this column on his penultimate start, before finding the mercurial Romany Ryme too strong at Carlisle. That form can be crabbed, but that’s only because the winner is a moody type who hasn’t responded to the continued use of headgear. On the day, George Bewley’s gelding was rocket propelled, and the pair were well clear of their rivals. That was a punishing race, and Thomson has wisely rested Oscar Lateen since. He remains on an astonishingly lenient mark of 92, and I’m going to put my reputation on the line by suggesting he’ll be at least twenty pounds higher in the weights by the autumn. There is a vague chance that he will be sharper for the run, but that’s a minor quibble in the grand scheme of things, and with his jumping no longer looking a liability at Carlisle, I expect him to prove himself worthy of a place in higher grade.
RECOMMENDED:
CALL THE COPS 3.10 Doncaster – 2pts win @ 9/4 (general)
OSCAR LATEEN 3.35 Kelso - 2pts win @ 7/2 (general)
BetBright New Customer Offer
Saturday 28 February 2015
Friday 27 February 2015
Tower Taken To Fire in Donny Finale
5.25 Doncaster - BetBright CASINO HANDICAP HURDLE (2m3f)
There are several intriguing runners in the closing handicap at Doncaster, with handicap debutant Portmonarch potentially thrown in on Flat form and equipped with both blinkers and a tongue tie for the first time. His form over timber has been dreadful, but he's impossible to assess with any confidence, and if the headgear isn't a sign of desperation, he could easily be on the wrong mark. One who is definitely well handicapped, at least on old form, is C&D winner Harvey's Hope, who has struggled for form since returning from a lengthy absence, but should be fully tuned up after three runs, and has been offered a carrot by the handicapper, enabling him to take a marked drop in class.
That pair are worthy of attention, but preference is for Fire Tower, who looks on a fair mark based on her hurdles form to date, and suggested she might be even better last time at Jempton, travelling as well as anything until turning for home, but seemingly wanting for stamina over 2m5f there. Back in trip, and on faster ground which should help her see things out better, she should be able to build on the significant promise of that effort, and is taken to go close for her in-form yard.
Recommended:
1pt e/w Fire Tower @ 13/2 (general)
There are several intriguing runners in the closing handicap at Doncaster, with handicap debutant Portmonarch potentially thrown in on Flat form and equipped with both blinkers and a tongue tie for the first time. His form over timber has been dreadful, but he's impossible to assess with any confidence, and if the headgear isn't a sign of desperation, he could easily be on the wrong mark. One who is definitely well handicapped, at least on old form, is C&D winner Harvey's Hope, who has struggled for form since returning from a lengthy absence, but should be fully tuned up after three runs, and has been offered a carrot by the handicapper, enabling him to take a marked drop in class.
That pair are worthy of attention, but preference is for Fire Tower, who looks on a fair mark based on her hurdles form to date, and suggested she might be even better last time at Jempton, travelling as well as anything until turning for home, but seemingly wanting for stamina over 2m5f there. Back in trip, and on faster ground which should help her see things out better, she should be able to build on the significant promise of that effort, and is taken to go close for her in-form yard.
Recommended:
1pt e/w Fire Tower @ 13/2 (general)
Wednesday 25 February 2015
All's Fair In This Speed War
3.40 Wincanton - Come Racing Novices Handicap Hurdle
The most pertinent point in examining this novices' handicap is the sheer amount of pace in the contest, with all but one of the runners having made the running in recent starts. On top of that, a couple of those pacesetters are of the eyeballs-out type, and both Risk A Bet and Ar Mad can take a strong hold, notably the first named, who is undoubtedly classy, but has looked something of a headcase to date. Philip Hobbs' runner improved to win at Exeter two starts back, but was untroubled on the front end, which allowed Richard Johnson to get him settled after a couple of flights. That isn't going to happen with Revaader in opposition, and those two are likely to compromise each other if duelling in front.
Ar Mad looks to have some talent, too, and it's possible that he will settle better behind a fast pace, but he's not sure to be helped by a hood, and could easily get lit up by the antics of the other pair. With Alto des Mottes looking slightly wayward last time, and plenty short enough in the market based on what he's shown, the value looks to lie in sole hold-up performer Spice Fair, who looks sure to get the race run to suit. Best when finessed on the Flat at staying trips, he is also likely to benefit from the assistance of the stylish Wayne Hutchison. He's shown enough over hurdles to suggest that he'll win races in this sphere, and an end-to-end gallop at this venue should bring his undoubted stamina into play.
Recommended:
1.5pts win Spice Fair @ 4/1 (general)
The most pertinent point in examining this novices' handicap is the sheer amount of pace in the contest, with all but one of the runners having made the running in recent starts. On top of that, a couple of those pacesetters are of the eyeballs-out type, and both Risk A Bet and Ar Mad can take a strong hold, notably the first named, who is undoubtedly classy, but has looked something of a headcase to date. Philip Hobbs' runner improved to win at Exeter two starts back, but was untroubled on the front end, which allowed Richard Johnson to get him settled after a couple of flights. That isn't going to happen with Revaader in opposition, and those two are likely to compromise each other if duelling in front.
Ar Mad looks to have some talent, too, and it's possible that he will settle better behind a fast pace, but he's not sure to be helped by a hood, and could easily get lit up by the antics of the other pair. With Alto des Mottes looking slightly wayward last time, and plenty short enough in the market based on what he's shown, the value looks to lie in sole hold-up performer Spice Fair, who looks sure to get the race run to suit. Best when finessed on the Flat at staying trips, he is also likely to benefit from the assistance of the stylish Wayne Hutchison. He's shown enough over hurdles to suggest that he'll win races in this sphere, and an end-to-end gallop at this venue should bring his undoubted stamina into play.
Recommended:
1.5pts win Spice Fair @ 4/1 (general)
Sunday 22 February 2015
Well To Uphold Family Values
3.00 Southwell - Play Golf At Southwell Golf Club Novices Hurdle
One of the low points of the past week was the death of Trevor Hemmings' stalwart Burton Port, runner-up in last season's bet365 Gold Cup. The 11-y-o was viewed by connections as an ideal candidate for the Grand National, but had failed to recover his old sparkle this season, and was struggling when taking a fatal fall in a veterans' chase at Doncaster on Wednesday. Hemmings has enjoyed a fine season thanks to the exploits of Many Clouds, but the loss of Burton Port will be felt keenly.
One bright spot amid the gloom is the emergence of Burton Port's half-brother Burton's Well, who was a taking winner on his racecourse bow at Newton Abbot in October despite a distinct lack of market confidence. Newton Abbot may have a reputation as one of racing's gaffs, but the track is forward thinking, provides a good racing surface, and has been improving the quality of its racing in the last decade or so. Immediately behind Burton's Well that day were a trio of subsequent winners, including Buckhorn Timothy (BHA rated 131) and Polamco (124), and given that pair had an experience edge on the Venetia Williams-trained winner, and were firmly put in their place, it's not hard to imagine that Burton's Well will prove capable of a making his mark in pattern class somewhere down the line. He certainly caught the eye with how easily he travelled, and might have won by further but for showing signs of greenness when hitting the front.
The son of Well Chosen has been absent since, and a lack of Cheltenham entries might put some off, but Williams simply doesn't target her novices at the Festival, preferring to leave such a stern test to experienced campaigners as a rule, and it's not unusual for her to plot a campaign around the calmer waters of Aintree instead, as she's shown in the past with the likes of Montalcino and Limerick Boy. Aintree is also the preferred destination for Hemmings' better horses, and it's likely that his absence from the course in the depths of winter has always been Plan A. He'd certainly be a much shorter price if that winning debut had come a month ago, and he is taken to beat former Racing Post Trophy runner-up Zip Top.
Zip Top was quite impressive when winning at Fakenham last month from Shwaiman, and can be excused a lesser effort at Newcastle where a combination of heavy ground and a poor round of jumping conspired against him. Underfoot conditions will be more to his liking here, but whether he will jump better over the portable obstacles is open to debate, whereas the selection jumped exceptionally well over Newton Abbot's padded hurdles, and looks the type to take to these "mini-fences". Killiecrankie would be a big price were it not for his connections, and the fact he's making his racecourse debut at the age of seven is a huge concern - he appeals as a place lay, particularly with reasons to expect good runs from both Lucky Jim and Crickel Wood, both of whom were useful on the Flat.
Recommended:
1pt win Burton's Well @ 11/4 (general - take BOG)
Lay Killiecrankie @ 2.5 for a place to lose 3 pts
BetBright New Customer Offer
One of the low points of the past week was the death of Trevor Hemmings' stalwart Burton Port, runner-up in last season's bet365 Gold Cup. The 11-y-o was viewed by connections as an ideal candidate for the Grand National, but had failed to recover his old sparkle this season, and was struggling when taking a fatal fall in a veterans' chase at Doncaster on Wednesday. Hemmings has enjoyed a fine season thanks to the exploits of Many Clouds, but the loss of Burton Port will be felt keenly.
One bright spot amid the gloom is the emergence of Burton Port's half-brother Burton's Well, who was a taking winner on his racecourse bow at Newton Abbot in October despite a distinct lack of market confidence. Newton Abbot may have a reputation as one of racing's gaffs, but the track is forward thinking, provides a good racing surface, and has been improving the quality of its racing in the last decade or so. Immediately behind Burton's Well that day were a trio of subsequent winners, including Buckhorn Timothy (BHA rated 131) and Polamco (124), and given that pair had an experience edge on the Venetia Williams-trained winner, and were firmly put in their place, it's not hard to imagine that Burton's Well will prove capable of a making his mark in pattern class somewhere down the line. He certainly caught the eye with how easily he travelled, and might have won by further but for showing signs of greenness when hitting the front.
The son of Well Chosen has been absent since, and a lack of Cheltenham entries might put some off, but Williams simply doesn't target her novices at the Festival, preferring to leave such a stern test to experienced campaigners as a rule, and it's not unusual for her to plot a campaign around the calmer waters of Aintree instead, as she's shown in the past with the likes of Montalcino and Limerick Boy. Aintree is also the preferred destination for Hemmings' better horses, and it's likely that his absence from the course in the depths of winter has always been Plan A. He'd certainly be a much shorter price if that winning debut had come a month ago, and he is taken to beat former Racing Post Trophy runner-up Zip Top.
Zip Top was quite impressive when winning at Fakenham last month from Shwaiman, and can be excused a lesser effort at Newcastle where a combination of heavy ground and a poor round of jumping conspired against him. Underfoot conditions will be more to his liking here, but whether he will jump better over the portable obstacles is open to debate, whereas the selection jumped exceptionally well over Newton Abbot's padded hurdles, and looks the type to take to these "mini-fences". Killiecrankie would be a big price were it not for his connections, and the fact he's making his racecourse debut at the age of seven is a huge concern - he appeals as a place lay, particularly with reasons to expect good runs from both Lucky Jim and Crickel Wood, both of whom were useful on the Flat.
Recommended:
1pt win Burton's Well @ 11/4 (general - take BOG)
Lay Killiecrankie @ 2.5 for a place to lose 3 pts
BetBright New Customer Offer
Saturday 21 February 2015
Rawley Can Knock 'em For Six
2.55 NEWCASTLE - BETFRED EIDER CHASE (4M1F)
The Eider is always one of the
most gruelling contests in the chasing calendar, no more so that in 2011 when
Companero won in one of the slowest finishes ever seen on a racecourse.
Luckily, the weather has been kinder to the Northeast this year, and the
prospect of the race being compromised by very testing ground is pretty much
nil. My initial thought in examining the race was to concentrate on the bottom of
the handicap, assuming that the task of carrying a big impost for over four
miles would count against the classier contenders, but a look through the
recent history of the race doesn’t bear this out, and it’s remarkable that no
winner has carried less than eleven stone since Scotton Green at the turn of
the century.
Wyck Hill and Portrait King are
the last two winners of the contest, and will attempt a rare repeat (only Wyndburgh
and Highland Wedding have followed up in the race’s history), while Shotgun Paddy
is no stranger to conceding lumps to lesser rivals. So that trio will take
their share of the market, but the vote goes to the less exposed KNOCKANRAWLEY,
who is no ride for a boy, but looks all about stamina, and should relish this
extreme trip after scoring at Newbury in December. Barely on the bridle at any
stage that day, he nonetheless stayed on dourly from the last to beat Back In
June and Financial Climate, and can only improve for a further increase in trip.
The messages from the form are mixed, but the third had won the corresponding
event in 2013, and went on to win his next start, which helps to give some
solidity to that effort.
Jason Maguire rode at Newbury,
but Andrew Thornton also knows him well, and his physical style suits the
horse. Also in his favour is the fact that the majority of the field are
prominent racers, and the race looks set up for one to come from further back,
with Knockanrawley appearing the likeliest beneficiary on my reading of the
race. Herdsman is another for whom the race shape is attractive, and Woodford
County isn’t dismissed out of hand despite appearing not to stay in the Welsh
National. His weak finish at Chepstow may well have been down to losing a shoe
in the race, and the fact that Philip Hobbs is persevering at marathon trips is
encouraging. Count Guido Deiro made mistakes under pressure when a selection at
Sandown, and won’t get much room to manoeuvre if adopting forcing tactics
again, but he remains capable of better, and his day will surely come.
Recommended:
2.55 Newcastle - 1pt e/w Knockanrawley @ 12/1 (various)
BetBright New Customer Offer
Friday 20 February 2015
Malt to Prove Master at Exeter
Today's Irish Field nap is the Jonjo O'Neill trained Master Malt in the 4.20 Exeter. The Milan gelding has been of interest to me since he split River Maigue and Duke of Navan on his racecourse bow for Alistair Whillans. The gelding was running for his breeder Robert Robinson of Distillery Stud at the time, and the plan was clearly to use the racecourse as a means of marketing him to prospective buyers.
The ploy worked well, and it wasn't long before he was sporting the colours of J P McManus, although he failed to land the odds on his first outing for Jonjo, and has taken a little while to flourish as a hurdler. It wasn't until May that he gained his first success for new connections, with that belated success coming at Exeter. He quickly followed up at Ffos Las, but has come up shortb in four subsequent runs in handicaps. That fact doesn't tell the full story, however, and he's caught the eye on his last two starts, firstly at Kempton when his yard was struggling for winners, shaping as well as anything before weakening between the last two flights, and then when the yard's second string in a well-contested handicap at Haydock fought out by subsequent winners Closing Ceremony and Milan Bound. Given a rest since then, he appears to be on a mark he can exploit, and is capable of outclassing today's rivals.
Recommendation:
1.5pts win Master Malt @ 19/10 (BetBright - BOG)
BetBright New Customer Offer
The ploy worked well, and it wasn't long before he was sporting the colours of J P McManus, although he failed to land the odds on his first outing for Jonjo, and has taken a little while to flourish as a hurdler. It wasn't until May that he gained his first success for new connections, with that belated success coming at Exeter. He quickly followed up at Ffos Las, but has come up shortb in four subsequent runs in handicaps. That fact doesn't tell the full story, however, and he's caught the eye on his last two starts, firstly at Kempton when his yard was struggling for winners, shaping as well as anything before weakening between the last two flights, and then when the yard's second string in a well-contested handicap at Haydock fought out by subsequent winners Closing Ceremony and Milan Bound. Given a rest since then, he appears to be on a mark he can exploit, and is capable of outclassing today's rivals.
Recommendation:
1.5pts win Master Malt @ 19/10 (BetBright - BOG)
BetBright New Customer Offer
Thursday 19 February 2015
Ginger Much Too Hot For Musselburgh Rivals
After something of a hiatus, the seventeenhands blog is back....
Pickings look rather thin on the ground at today's three jumps meetings, but there is one race of particular interest at Musselburgh. The sharp 2m on a sound surface looks certain to suit Ginger Jack, and there must be a chance that the handicapper has erred on the side of leniency with the 7-y-o's opening hurdles mark. The son of Refuse To Bend is rated 83 on the Flat, and has shown that he's adapted well to hurdles in a couple of sighters in novice company. On the first occasion, he was a creditable fourth in a C&D event won by Stylish Chap. The winner caused rather a surprise there, and hasn't gone on, but the second and third brought solid form, and Ginger Jack would have been closer but for making his only error at the last when trying to challenge.
Stamina is clearly a slight concern for the gelding in his new discipline, and he again failed to see things out thoroughly when third on heavy ground at Ayr last time, but that represented an improvement in form terms, and the way he jumped and travelled was most encouraging. It was also notable that he wasn't at all knocked about when his winning chance had gone there, and those in-frame efforts allow him to go straight into handicaps.
The assessor has simply taken his hurdles form at face value, and allotted him a mark of 108, which is extremely lenient based on his Flat exploits. The conundrum for punters is whether his stamina limitations will mean that he is permanently compromised as a hurdler, or whether he will be capable of much better form when speed is at more of a premium. My position is firmly in the latter category, and I saw enough last time to think that the Keith Dalgleish-trainer runner is something of a handicap snip, with the booking of Denis O'Regan looking the icing on the cake. O'Regan has few peers when it comes to settling keen sorts, and Ginger Jack looks the ideal vehicle for his skills.
Recommended: 2pts win Ginger Jack @ 5/2 (BetBright - BOG)
BetBright New Customer Offer - £30 Risk Free Bet
Pickings look rather thin on the ground at today's three jumps meetings, but there is one race of particular interest at Musselburgh. The sharp 2m on a sound surface looks certain to suit Ginger Jack, and there must be a chance that the handicapper has erred on the side of leniency with the 7-y-o's opening hurdles mark. The son of Refuse To Bend is rated 83 on the Flat, and has shown that he's adapted well to hurdles in a couple of sighters in novice company. On the first occasion, he was a creditable fourth in a C&D event won by Stylish Chap. The winner caused rather a surprise there, and hasn't gone on, but the second and third brought solid form, and Ginger Jack would have been closer but for making his only error at the last when trying to challenge.
Stamina is clearly a slight concern for the gelding in his new discipline, and he again failed to see things out thoroughly when third on heavy ground at Ayr last time, but that represented an improvement in form terms, and the way he jumped and travelled was most encouraging. It was also notable that he wasn't at all knocked about when his winning chance had gone there, and those in-frame efforts allow him to go straight into handicaps.
The assessor has simply taken his hurdles form at face value, and allotted him a mark of 108, which is extremely lenient based on his Flat exploits. The conundrum for punters is whether his stamina limitations will mean that he is permanently compromised as a hurdler, or whether he will be capable of much better form when speed is at more of a premium. My position is firmly in the latter category, and I saw enough last time to think that the Keith Dalgleish-trainer runner is something of a handicap snip, with the booking of Denis O'Regan looking the icing on the cake. O'Regan has few peers when it comes to settling keen sorts, and Ginger Jack looks the ideal vehicle for his skills.
Recommended: 2pts win Ginger Jack @ 5/2 (BetBright - BOG)
BetBright New Customer Offer - £30 Risk Free Bet
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)