1.30 Cheltenham - SkyBet Supreme Novices' Hurdle
A race wich has been dominated by Douvan in betting terms, and misquotes from Willie Mullins that he's "the best I've ever sent to Cheltenham" (sic) have seen bookmakers duck him in the ante-post market. He's clearly a big talent, but he's still an unfulfilled talent after winning just one ordinary Grade 2 contest in two starts for Mullins. As a result of his profile, it's impossible to be adamant about the limit of his capabilities, but the Supreme is a race which asks some very stern questions of an inexperienced horse, and as the likes of Best Mate has shown in the past, class is not enough on its own to win.
On the other hand, L'Ami Serge has experience aplenty, as well as clearly superior form in the book. Plenty will crab his win in a small-field Grade 1 last time, but he was impressive, and the form of his win in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury in November has worked out exceptionally well, with the winners of the Betfair and National Spirit Hurdles in his wake. That form had another small boost when Astre de La Cour won at Stratford, and whatever way you analyse the form, Nicky Henderson's charge looks a standout. Douvan may improve enough to beat him, but I prefer what my eyes tell me, and there is only one way I can bet here.
Recommended:
2pts win L'Ami Serge @ 7/2 (general)
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