Much the most interesting race at Musselburgh today is the handicap chase at 15:20, and my eye is immediately drawn to Richard Guest's Balinroab. The Milan gelding is hardly a paragon of consistency, but he holds strong claims on the form he showed when chasing home Present View at Market Rasen in November, and it's notable that Richard Guest's Flat team have burst back to form in the past few weeks, so his place on the cold list of jumps trainers is potentially misleading.
The Market Rasen form has since been advertised by the subsequent exploits of all but Balinroab, who ran a stinker at Haydock last month. He needs to be forgiven that, but there are reasons to believe he'll get back on track now. The return to a right handed track is a bonus, with his last four runs when going clockwise have yielded two wins and two places. He's also been dropped a few pounds by the handicapper, and I have absolutely no doubt that he's capable of winning from his current mark. He would ideally be suited by further, but travels well held up and a well-run contest at this trip should bring his stamina into play, and he's simply too big a price to ignore.
In the same contest, it's also worth having a few shekels on Aneyeforaneye, who is another with patchy form to her name this season, but also represents a yard in form, and has been given a real chance by the handicapper. She doesn't always find much for pressure, but was cruising when coming down at Fakenham in October, and is now five pounds lower in the weights. She has a hefty pull with Maggio on the form they showed when in the frame at Kelso next time, and may just have needed the run after a break at Wetherby on Boxing Day. Like Balinroab, she has a little bit to prove, but is overpriced as a result.
In the preceding handicap hurdle over two miles, Titus Bolt can outrun his odds having caught the eye over course and distance last time. Jim Goldie's Flat winner has taken to the winter game with some enthusiasm, but simply did too much in front on that occasion, fading in the straight having got the better of a battle for early supremacy with Ultimate. His hurdling was very good on the whole, and he will prove capable of much better form when learning to channel his energy more efficiently. Until he does, he's possibly better utilised as a back-to-lay option, but his trainer has sensibly left the visor off today, and that will help him curb his free-going tendencies to some degree. He's been ridden prominently over timber in recent starts, but both his Flat wins came when delivered from off the pace, so he's no one-trick-pony.
Recommendations:
All at Musselburgh
Back Balinroab @ [17.0] & Aneyeforaneye @ [9.4] in the 15:20
Back Titus Bolt @ [11.5] in the 14:50
Friday, 17 January 2014
Wednesday, 15 January 2014
Basford Worth A Bash
No easy pickings on Wednesday, where cloying conditions look the order of the day, but hopefully something can be salvaged from the mire, and both Newbury and Newcastle provide betting opportunities. Best bet at the latter venue is the leniently treated Basford Bob, who tackles the handicap hurdle at 14:10. He's won a bumper on heavy ground, which is encouraging, despite the pick of his hurdles form having come away from the mud. The key to Jennie Candlish's charge is that he's shown clear signs of revival on his last couple of starts having been given some rope by the handicapper, and he looks sure to cash in on his reduced mark soon.
Despite finishing only fifth over an extended three miles at Wetherby in early December, he shaped very well, only losing his chance after a bad mistake at the third last. The form of that race, won by Rattlin, is very solid for the grade, and Basford Bob built on that when a luckless third at Haydock last time, beaten less than a length behind No No Bingo despite the slow pace suiting the pair who beat him much better. The way he closed the gap all the way to the line there was most encouraging, and with the runner-up having franked that form since, he looks poised to regain winning ways. His achilles heel is his jumping, and he's unlikely to escape today's contest without blemish, but if he can keep the errors to a mimimum, he can prove too good for his rivals at the weights.
At Newbury, I'm keen to oppose the disappointing Dark Lover in the novice chase (13:20). He was left clear to win at Cheltenham on his chase bow, but needed reminders to keep going that day, and again looked far from in love with the game when falling at Exeter (clearly struggling at the time). He may bounce back after a break, but isn't making up into the top-notch chaser that his trainer thought he'd be. Brick Red, on the other hand, made a seamless transition to fences at Plumpton, albeit in a weak affair, and he was almost the equal of his main rival over hurdles. With speed being his main asset, he will be better suited by a tactical affair, and is a confident choice to lower the colours of the favourite.
In the three-mile handicap chase at 14:25, there are plenty to consider, but it may pay to take a chance on the inconsistent Handy Andy, who has run poorly on his last couple of starts, but seems to save his best behaviour for the Berkshire venue, and looked better than ever when winning at Cheltenham in November. He's a strong traveller who is best suited by a well-run race, and he looks certain to get that scenario today, so ought to trade short in the run despite a tendency to find less than expected for pressure. With a contested pace likely to see many of his rivals flagging in the home straight, he should have no excuses, and is taken to take his track record to four wins from five outings.
Recommendations:
Back Basford Bob @ [5.6] in the 14:10 Newcastle (NAP)
Back Brick Red @ [2.28] in the 13:20 Newbury
Back Handy Andy @ [15] in the 14:25 Newbury
Despite finishing only fifth over an extended three miles at Wetherby in early December, he shaped very well, only losing his chance after a bad mistake at the third last. The form of that race, won by Rattlin, is very solid for the grade, and Basford Bob built on that when a luckless third at Haydock last time, beaten less than a length behind No No Bingo despite the slow pace suiting the pair who beat him much better. The way he closed the gap all the way to the line there was most encouraging, and with the runner-up having franked that form since, he looks poised to regain winning ways. His achilles heel is his jumping, and he's unlikely to escape today's contest without blemish, but if he can keep the errors to a mimimum, he can prove too good for his rivals at the weights.
At Newbury, I'm keen to oppose the disappointing Dark Lover in the novice chase (13:20). He was left clear to win at Cheltenham on his chase bow, but needed reminders to keep going that day, and again looked far from in love with the game when falling at Exeter (clearly struggling at the time). He may bounce back after a break, but isn't making up into the top-notch chaser that his trainer thought he'd be. Brick Red, on the other hand, made a seamless transition to fences at Plumpton, albeit in a weak affair, and he was almost the equal of his main rival over hurdles. With speed being his main asset, he will be better suited by a tactical affair, and is a confident choice to lower the colours of the favourite.
In the three-mile handicap chase at 14:25, there are plenty to consider, but it may pay to take a chance on the inconsistent Handy Andy, who has run poorly on his last couple of starts, but seems to save his best behaviour for the Berkshire venue, and looked better than ever when winning at Cheltenham in November. He's a strong traveller who is best suited by a well-run race, and he looks certain to get that scenario today, so ought to trade short in the run despite a tendency to find less than expected for pressure. With a contested pace likely to see many of his rivals flagging in the home straight, he should have no excuses, and is taken to take his track record to four wins from five outings.
Recommendations:
Back Basford Bob @ [5.6] in the 14:10 Newcastle (NAP)
Back Brick Red @ [2.28] in the 13:20 Newbury
Back Handy Andy @ [15] in the 14:25 Newbury
Sunday, 12 January 2014
Give This Pearl A Whirl
With Kelso off, opportunities are limited on Sunday, and best bet is the unexposed Pearl Nation in the seven furlong handicap at Wolverhampton (16:00). Brian Baugh is not one of the biggest names in the training ranks, but he enjoys his fair share of success on polytrack, and has a potentially useful sort on his hands with this son of Speightstown. His sire was a Breeders Cup Sprint winner who has produced a high percentage of winners to runners, particularly on dirt and synthetic surfaces, and while Pearl Nation's sole win to date came on turf at Doncaster, he will prove at least as well suited to the surface at Dunstall Park, as he showed when an excellent second to the reopposing Powerful Pierre over C&D on Boxing Day.
Now 3 lb off for that narrow defeat, a more significant factor may be the fact that Pearl Nation was having his first outing since May, and just his tenth overall. With progress in the offing, he can turn the tables on his recent conqueror, and prove himself on a good mark at the same time. His draw in stall six is no problem, and there should be no tactical advantage to be gained, with Al's Memory best when dominating, and almost certain to set a solid pace. That one might be dangerous if the others allow him to poach a lead, but has looked vulnerable under pressure on recent starts.
In the sprint handicap at 13:30, the pace looks set to be strong, and that could set things up for the strong-travelling Nafa, who can sit off the pace and pounce late. She showed herself as good as ever when returning from a break recently (second to Tax Free), and should be at her peak now. With a trio of these having made all last time, but potentially compromised by similar tactics here, she looks to have the perfect stalking scenario, and is overpriced at morning odds.
Recommendations:
Both at Wolverhampton
Back Pearl Nation @ [6.2] in the 16:00 (NAP)
Back Nafa @ [8.6] in the 13:30 (NB)
Now 3 lb off for that narrow defeat, a more significant factor may be the fact that Pearl Nation was having his first outing since May, and just his tenth overall. With progress in the offing, he can turn the tables on his recent conqueror, and prove himself on a good mark at the same time. His draw in stall six is no problem, and there should be no tactical advantage to be gained, with Al's Memory best when dominating, and almost certain to set a solid pace. That one might be dangerous if the others allow him to poach a lead, but has looked vulnerable under pressure on recent starts.
In the sprint handicap at 13:30, the pace looks set to be strong, and that could set things up for the strong-travelling Nafa, who can sit off the pace and pounce late. She showed herself as good as ever when returning from a break recently (second to Tax Free), and should be at her peak now. With a trio of these having made all last time, but potentially compromised by similar tactics here, she looks to have the perfect stalking scenario, and is overpriced at morning odds.
Recommendations:
Both at Wolverhampton
Back Pearl Nation @ [6.2] in the 16:00 (NAP)
Back Nafa @ [8.6] in the 13:30 (NB)
Friday, 10 January 2014
Ivanka A Banker
Like plenty of other Northern Ireland-based trainers, Noel Kelly has found it easier to place his horses in the north of England than in his homeland, and his runners over hurdles in the UK always need a second look, his six winners over timber in recent seasons coming at a respectable strike rate and providing a level stakes profit to backers. He sends a pair to Sedgefield today, and has genuine prospects of a double, with Ivanka arguably the pick.
Ivanka contests the handicap hurdle at 15:15, and meets a motley bunch of opponents, pick of whom is Orlittlebylittle, but Donald McCain's runner has been on the sidelines for the best part of two years, and needs to prove he retains his old ability. Willie Hall is very well treated on his old form, and has shaped better than the bare result on his last 2 starts over hurdles, but appeals more as a back-to-lay project (can finish weakly), so Ivanka gets the verdict. She makes her handicap debut after contesting better races, and while her mark looks harsh on balance, she ran much her best race when third to a subsequent winner at Sligo in May, and that form looks better now than it did at the time, with a pair who finished behind her running creditably from higher marks in handicaps recently. She was far from knocked about by Derek Fox there, and improvement looks on the cards now she's obtained a mark. With most of her rivals either regressive or limited, she may not have to progress much to get off the mark.
Kelly's other runner also contests a weak handicap, and like Ivanka, Mia's Vic is less exposed than his rivals in the 14:15. Owned by Kelly's mother, Christina, the son of Old Vic showed his first form over fences when fourth in a beginners chase at Downpatrick last month, and was better than the result in a handicap at Leopardstown last time, paying the price for pressing on with one who'd gone off too hard in a race won by the well-handicapped Wrong Turn. He was still disputing the places between the last two fences there before fading, and he seems likely to be suited by the demands of the mimimum trip on testing ground, especially with Sedgefield's less demanding fences to cope with now. Pamak D'Airy is the strict form choice, but while another solid run looks on the cards, he's proved very hard to win with in recent times, and is best kept as a banker for placepots and exotics.
Recommendations:
Both at Sedgefield
Back Mia's Vic @ [4.6] in the 14:15 (NB)
Back Ivanka @ [8.2] in the 15:15 (NAP)
Ivanka contests the handicap hurdle at 15:15, and meets a motley bunch of opponents, pick of whom is Orlittlebylittle, but Donald McCain's runner has been on the sidelines for the best part of two years, and needs to prove he retains his old ability. Willie Hall is very well treated on his old form, and has shaped better than the bare result on his last 2 starts over hurdles, but appeals more as a back-to-lay project (can finish weakly), so Ivanka gets the verdict. She makes her handicap debut after contesting better races, and while her mark looks harsh on balance, she ran much her best race when third to a subsequent winner at Sligo in May, and that form looks better now than it did at the time, with a pair who finished behind her running creditably from higher marks in handicaps recently. She was far from knocked about by Derek Fox there, and improvement looks on the cards now she's obtained a mark. With most of her rivals either regressive or limited, she may not have to progress much to get off the mark.
Kelly's other runner also contests a weak handicap, and like Ivanka, Mia's Vic is less exposed than his rivals in the 14:15. Owned by Kelly's mother, Christina, the son of Old Vic showed his first form over fences when fourth in a beginners chase at Downpatrick last month, and was better than the result in a handicap at Leopardstown last time, paying the price for pressing on with one who'd gone off too hard in a race won by the well-handicapped Wrong Turn. He was still disputing the places between the last two fences there before fading, and he seems likely to be suited by the demands of the mimimum trip on testing ground, especially with Sedgefield's less demanding fences to cope with now. Pamak D'Airy is the strict form choice, but while another solid run looks on the cards, he's proved very hard to win with in recent times, and is best kept as a banker for placepots and exotics.
Recommendations:
Both at Sedgefield
Back Mia's Vic @ [4.6] in the 14:15 (NB)
Back Ivanka @ [8.2] in the 15:15 (NAP)
Monday, 6 January 2014
Run For Your Life
Racing continues to be badly affected by the weather, but at least today's jumps fixture at Southwell has survived, and while conditions will be testing, it's a welcome relief to have turf action at this time of the year, and this particular pundit is counting his blessings.
The opening contest throws up a bet by dint of having a pair at the top of the market who are usually worth opposing, and that makes the market for the selection. Morestead is a monkey, to put it kindly, and few horses have tried harder to avoid victory that this fella did at Fontwell on Boxing Day. With the reluctant Sablazo trying to duck out and badly interfering with his main rival at the last, Morestead went from being tailed off to being left well clear, only to put the brakes on himself. That performance is enough to put anyone off this moody beast, and the booking of Tony McCoy will only fool a few.
Decent Lord appears the one to take advantage at first glance, having hinted at a revival on his first two starts over fences this season. He unseated at the first at Catterick last time, though, and doesn't convince as a natural jumper of fences, so may not be the ideal horse to back at short odds, especially with the Southwell fences having a reputation of being tricky. The one who really catches the eye is Cooldine Run, who has rather patchy form under Rules, but is a dual point winner. He has been running over hurdles this term, and very much caught the eye in a stronger event at Bangor last time, jumping and travelling better than most of his rivals before tiring from before the second last over the three-mile trip. Allowed to come home in his own time, he was much better than that forty-length defeat suggests, and will benefit from a marked drop in distance today. He's clearly no world beater, but meets dubious rivals here, and his ability to travel on the bridle for a long way will see him trade short in the run at the very least.
It's also worth having an interest in the mares handicap hurdle at 13:25, as Nigel Twiston-Davies' Lady Fingers has the look of a handicap project having been campaigned over inadequate trips to date. The daughter of Kirkwall is out of a Primitive Rising mare, and the vast majority of that stallion's progeny want a trip in excess of three miles. After finishing mid-field in a trio of runs at the minimum trip, she's given a chance to see what she can do over a trip more in keeping with her pedigree, and looks certain to improve. Her trainer hasn't always played the handicap game, but the exploits of African Gold and Master Of The Sea last term show that he can be as shrewd as anyone in that regard.
Recommendations:
Both at Southwell
Back Cooldine Run @ [9.0] in the 12:25 (NAP)
Back Lady Fingers @ [7.0] in the 13:25 (NB)
The opening contest throws up a bet by dint of having a pair at the top of the market who are usually worth opposing, and that makes the market for the selection. Morestead is a monkey, to put it kindly, and few horses have tried harder to avoid victory that this fella did at Fontwell on Boxing Day. With the reluctant Sablazo trying to duck out and badly interfering with his main rival at the last, Morestead went from being tailed off to being left well clear, only to put the brakes on himself. That performance is enough to put anyone off this moody beast, and the booking of Tony McCoy will only fool a few.
Decent Lord appears the one to take advantage at first glance, having hinted at a revival on his first two starts over fences this season. He unseated at the first at Catterick last time, though, and doesn't convince as a natural jumper of fences, so may not be the ideal horse to back at short odds, especially with the Southwell fences having a reputation of being tricky. The one who really catches the eye is Cooldine Run, who has rather patchy form under Rules, but is a dual point winner. He has been running over hurdles this term, and very much caught the eye in a stronger event at Bangor last time, jumping and travelling better than most of his rivals before tiring from before the second last over the three-mile trip. Allowed to come home in his own time, he was much better than that forty-length defeat suggests, and will benefit from a marked drop in distance today. He's clearly no world beater, but meets dubious rivals here, and his ability to travel on the bridle for a long way will see him trade short in the run at the very least.
It's also worth having an interest in the mares handicap hurdle at 13:25, as Nigel Twiston-Davies' Lady Fingers has the look of a handicap project having been campaigned over inadequate trips to date. The daughter of Kirkwall is out of a Primitive Rising mare, and the vast majority of that stallion's progeny want a trip in excess of three miles. After finishing mid-field in a trio of runs at the minimum trip, she's given a chance to see what she can do over a trip more in keeping with her pedigree, and looks certain to improve. Her trainer hasn't always played the handicap game, but the exploits of African Gold and Master Of The Sea last term show that he can be as shrewd as anyone in that regard.
Recommendations:
Both at Southwell
Back Cooldine Run @ [9.0] in the 12:25 (NAP)
Back Lady Fingers @ [7.0] in the 13:25 (NB)
Friday, 3 January 2014
Pearl's A Zinger
It's poor stuff on Friday, but that doesn't preclude a decent betting opportunity, and it may be worth chancing a couple of dark ones at Musselburgh. The Kilmany Cup hasn't lived up to it's grand title, with only Kris Cross arriving in form, and a closer look at his Ascot success shows that he needed the runner-up to throw the race away there, and again made a number of errors. He remains capable of much better if he could avoid such mistakes, but that's a big "if", and he's opposable at very short odds. Of his rivals, the most appealing is the veteran Isla Pearl Fisher, who is a dual course winner, and shaped much better than the bare result on his return at Carlisle. Not unduly punished after a rather negative ride there, he's sure to strip fitter, and he isn't badly treated on his best form. With both Rossini's Dancer and Lively Baron throwing in stinkers last time, the Nick Alexander-trained gelding looks overpriced at 6/1.
In the bumper, those who have run look very vulnerable, with Cousin Guillaume having failed to improve on a promising debut (when fully clued-up), and Coozan George only fifth at Huntingdon. The fact that the latter appears the one to beat on form tells a story, and this looks ripe for an above-average newcomer to plunder. Elfego Baca fits the bill, having finished second between the flags as recently as October. Lucinda Russell does very well with her recruits from the pointing field, and this one stands out on paper in what looks a decidedly modest event of its type.
Recommendations:
Both at Musselburgh
Back Isla Pearl Fisher @ [7.0] in the 15:10 (NAP)
Back Elfego Baca @ [4.2] in the 15:40 (NB)
In the bumper, those who have run look very vulnerable, with Cousin Guillaume having failed to improve on a promising debut (when fully clued-up), and Coozan George only fifth at Huntingdon. The fact that the latter appears the one to beat on form tells a story, and this looks ripe for an above-average newcomer to plunder. Elfego Baca fits the bill, having finished second between the flags as recently as October. Lucinda Russell does very well with her recruits from the pointing field, and this one stands out on paper in what looks a decidedly modest event of its type.
Recommendations:
Both at Musselburgh
Back Isla Pearl Fisher @ [7.0] in the 15:10 (NAP)
Back Elfego Baca @ [4.2] in the 15:40 (NB)
Wednesday, 1 January 2014
Cheltenham Slog To Suit Coyaba
Exeter has already fallen foul of the weather on New Year's Day, and sister course Cheltenham is being lashed by wind and rain as I type. That tells us that there will be no hiding place up the famous hill, and stamina will be very much at a premium.
First bet of the day comes in the staying handicap chase at 12:45, where De La Bech can underline the notion that he's a stayer going places by beating more exposed rivals. He's yet to win beyond three miles, but looks a thorough stayer, and his defeat in the Badger Ales at Wincanton on his return was more about rustiness that a lack of stamina. Back to winning ways at Chepstow last time, he showed both a willing attitude and an excellent jumping technique, and those are assets which will continue to stand him in good stead. He's likely to either lead or dispute that position with Alfie Spinner, and while the myth persists that it's harder to do it from the front, the nature of the chase track at Cheltenham confers no disadvantage on front runners, with sound jumping and getting into a rhythm more important factors.
The main concern is whether Tom O'Brien will be spurred into going faster than ideal if harried by Tony McCoy on Alfie Spinner, but I expect the pair will be aware of such dangers, and a burn-up looks unlikely. The pair make most appeal, but Alfie Spinner is fully exposed and appeals more as a place-only play. The other one at the head of the market is Mendip Express, and he's unbeaten over fences having built up an excellent record between the flags. He's already an assured jumper, but the handicapper has taken no chances with his opening mark, and Bob Ford, who he beat last time, failed to do much for the form when well held on his handicap debut Haydock on Monday.
The other runner to make particular appeal on the card is Coyaba in the closing bumper. Martin Keighley's charge had been the subject of encouraging home reports before winning with great ease on his debut at Ffos Las, and he took a step forward in form terms when beating a previous winner at Towcester last time. Unlike most who contest junior bumpers, he's bred to stay further than two miles, and he looks best equipped of the principals to deal with what will be very tough conditions. Coyaba has nothing in hand of a couple of these on bare form, and most of the field are unexposed sorts capable of further progress, but he's made such a striking impression that he's a confident choice to extend his winning sequence.
Recommendations:
Both at Cheltenham
Back De La Bech @ [5.8] in the 12:45 (NB)
Back Coyaba @ [4.2] in the 15:40 (NAP)
First bet of the day comes in the staying handicap chase at 12:45, where De La Bech can underline the notion that he's a stayer going places by beating more exposed rivals. He's yet to win beyond three miles, but looks a thorough stayer, and his defeat in the Badger Ales at Wincanton on his return was more about rustiness that a lack of stamina. Back to winning ways at Chepstow last time, he showed both a willing attitude and an excellent jumping technique, and those are assets which will continue to stand him in good stead. He's likely to either lead or dispute that position with Alfie Spinner, and while the myth persists that it's harder to do it from the front, the nature of the chase track at Cheltenham confers no disadvantage on front runners, with sound jumping and getting into a rhythm more important factors.
The main concern is whether Tom O'Brien will be spurred into going faster than ideal if harried by Tony McCoy on Alfie Spinner, but I expect the pair will be aware of such dangers, and a burn-up looks unlikely. The pair make most appeal, but Alfie Spinner is fully exposed and appeals more as a place-only play. The other one at the head of the market is Mendip Express, and he's unbeaten over fences having built up an excellent record between the flags. He's already an assured jumper, but the handicapper has taken no chances with his opening mark, and Bob Ford, who he beat last time, failed to do much for the form when well held on his handicap debut Haydock on Monday.
The other runner to make particular appeal on the card is Coyaba in the closing bumper. Martin Keighley's charge had been the subject of encouraging home reports before winning with great ease on his debut at Ffos Las, and he took a step forward in form terms when beating a previous winner at Towcester last time. Unlike most who contest junior bumpers, he's bred to stay further than two miles, and he looks best equipped of the principals to deal with what will be very tough conditions. Coyaba has nothing in hand of a couple of these on bare form, and most of the field are unexposed sorts capable of further progress, but he's made such a striking impression that he's a confident choice to extend his winning sequence.
Recommendations:
Both at Cheltenham
Back De La Bech @ [5.8] in the 12:45 (NB)
Back Coyaba @ [4.2] in the 15:40 (NAP)
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