McDonald Can Farm Sandown Prize

James McDonald may be an unfamiliar name to UK punters, but the 21-year-old New Zealander has taken his home country by storm, and went close to winning the Melbourne Cup last year aboard 30/1 shot Fiorente (pictured). He's clearly a very talented rider, as evidenced by a haul of 16 Group 1 winners in Australasia and Hong Kong, and he can prove his mettle by scoring at Sandown today aboard Charlie Hills' Basseterre (14:30).

McDonald has already had a winner for Hills courtesy of Cable Bay at Leicester, and got an initial feel of Basseterre when the pair finished a creditable fourth over 1¼m at Newmarket last week in a race won by Niceofyoutotellme, travelling best of all before his effort flattened out in the last furlong or so. I think he's much better suited by a helter-skelter 1m, which suits his strong-travelling style, and he should get that scenario today. The apparent negatives which are holding his price up are the form of the Charlie Hills yard, the unfamiliarity of his rider, and a wide draw. The jockey has been covered, and I've discussed the draw over 1m at Sandown before - in April 2011, I said this:

"One of the great myths of the draw is that it's always an advantage to be drawn close to the rail on a round course. That's fine for Chester and the like, but a rail draw in handicaps over 1m at Sandown is often a curse, in large part because there is no rail on the immediate inside after the start. The natural jockeying for position causes more problems for those in what are now low stalls. As a result, horses drawn middle to high are often able to avoid scrimmaging and take a prominent pitch."

In terms of the yard's form, Hills has gone 20 runs since his last winner, which will immediately put many off, but winners tell only part of the story, and of that score of beaten horses, no less than 13 have made the frame, which is not the profile of a yard out of form. Back Basseterre to buck the stats.

The Scurry Stakes at 14:55 has been weakened by the absence of Smoothtalkinrascal, which appears to leave the way clear for the well-berthed Morawij, who ran so well in the Temple Stakes at Haydock last time. He certainly deserves his place at the head of the market, but I've long held the view that Sound of Guns would make a pattern-class sprinter, and I'm going to stick to my guns (pun intended) despite her disappointing showing at Newbury last time.

On that occasion, Ed Walker's filly couldn't make an impact having been restrained in rear, but circumstances conspired against the hold-up horses that day, and I'm willing to overlook that performance. She impressed me in defeat behind Rosdhu Queen last year, and again looked a good prospect in the Flying Childers on her final 2-y-o outing. Badly hampered in the Nell Gwyn, she still gives the impression that we've yet to see the standout performance that she's capable of, and a strong pace over Sandown's stiff 5f will mean she should have no excuses. Give her another chance.

Recommendations:

Both at Sandown

Back Basseterre @ [18.5] in the 14:20 (NAP)

Back Sound of Guns @ [6.8] in the 14:55 (NB)

Unrelenting Joy At The Curragh

Feature race at the Curragh today is the listed Trm Silver Stakes at 15:50, and the race is a fascinating one, insomuch as it allows a comparison of the classic generation against their elders prior to the traditional acid test provided by races like the Eclipse and King George. This is racing on a slightly lower plane, admittedly, but in the shape of horses like Trading Leather, Zand and Lines of Battle, the 3-y-o's hold a strong hand, and it would be a setback if that trio were beaten by more exposed older rivals.

That's also the story that the betting is telling, but the formbook is more circumspect, and while Trading Leather ties in very closely with the best of his generation (just beaten by the Derby second in the Dante before an excellent third in the Irish 2000 Guineas when ridden aggressively), the bare form of those performances leaves him slightly shy of the best of his older rivals. It's understandable why a horse who ran so well in Group 1 company last time should be favourite, but the market has lurched too far in favour of the 3-y-o's, and the front pair alone represent an 4/7 shot in the current market. The wise course of action is to oppose them at current odds, and the one who appeals most among the older horses is Captain Joy.

Tracey Collins charge races in the colours of Herb Stanley, more famous for his association with the top-notch chaser Merry Gale, but he has a smart sort on his hands in the shape of this son of Dark Angel. Best on either polytrack or fast ground, he rattled up a hat-trick at Dundalk on either side of a seasonal break, and finished an excellent staying-on second to Fiesolana in a competitive handicap at this track on Irish Guineas weekend despite a massive weight. He was never competitive when tried over C&D on his previous start, but is well worth another try at this trip. A draw in stall 1 is a big plus, especially as Trading Leather is widest of all, and that should ensure than Captain Joy gets a good pitch in the early stages, while the favourite may see more daylight than is ideal.

I'm also tempted to throw a few pennies each-way at Ansgar in the same race. He was well behind the selection here last time, but was most unlucky to end up where he did, absolutely tanking along on the rail when the early leader tired and fell into his lap, carrying him back to the rear of the field with his jockey powerless to take evasive action. He's still something of an outsider at listed level, but odds of 140 and bigger on Betfair are a massive insult, and he's capable of nabbing a place if getting the run of the race.

Willie Mullins has bigger fish to fry at Auteuil today, but can gain a Flat success courtesy of Levanto in the 16:50. The daughter of Lawman travelled best of all before getting tired on deep ground at Killarney on her return, and the winner of that race has since won off an official mark of 93. Her opening handicap mark of 84 looks extremely fair on that basis, and this polytrack winner will be much happier back on a sound surface. Being out of a half-sister to St Leger winner Rule of Law should mean that the step up to 1½m should suit, for all there is much more speed in the family than that one aspect would imply. Mullins would surely not step her up to this trip unless he felt she had the requisite stamina, and the decision to do so is likely to be vindicated.

Recommendations:

Both at the Curragh

Back Captain Joy @ [16.0] in the 15:50 (NAP)

Back Levanto @ [6.2] in the 16:50 (NB)

Molly a Jolly Good Bet

The closing sprint handicap at Bath (17:45) today looks sure to be run at a frenetic pace, with more than half the field having made the running in similar events recently, and both the pace set-up and the nature of the track suggesting that the race will fall to one of the few hold-up performers in the race. Of those with such a running style, Danziger has underperformed on her last 2 starts, and hails from a yard which is going through a quiet spell of late. Amber Heights can be slowly away, and needs consideration, but is arguably best over slightly further (below best in 2 tries over C&D), and the one who makes most appeal is Molly Jones.

Derek Haydn-Jones' filly hasn't scored since making a winning debut in a nursery at Lingfield (turf), but she's fallen more than a stone below that mark, and has hinted strongly at a return to form over this C&D on her last 2 starts. Third to subsequent winner Chosen One here in April when unfancied, she built on that effort when going down only to the thriving Above The Stars last time. Her conqueror that day has gone on to win no less than 3 times since, and despite being 1 lb out of the weights here, Molly Jones still looks to be well treated on the basis of that run. Guaranteed the strong pace she needs once more, it will be a huge surprise if she doesn't go very close.

In contrast to the Bath contest, the Racing Excellence 'Hands and Heels' Apprentice Series Handicap at Lingfield (18:05) appears devoid of tactical pace, and the sole front runner is also partnered by the most tactically-astute jockey in the contest. Sinchiroka made all to win over 9.5f at Wolverhampton in March, and it's easy to forgive a poor effort when unable to dominate a stronger field on turf at Newbury last time. This task, against wholly-exposed rivals, is much more appropriate, and gives the promising Eoin Walsh a chance to showcase his burgeoning talent.  He should be able to set the pace to suit his own ends, and if doing so, will prove hard to peg back.

Recommendations:
Back Molly Jones @ 8.2 in the 17:45 Bath (NAP)
Back Sinchiroka @ 5.4 in the 18:05 Lingfield (NB)

Mutual Can Benefit Punters

Best bet of the day on a rather mixed card at Ayr today is Sir Mark Prescott's rapidly improving handicapper Mutual Regard in the 15:10. This is much the best race of the day, and also features interesting types in the shape of Twelve Strings and Villa Royale. The pair look certain to gain further success for their excellent new yards, but they are bumping into one who is unbeaten in handicaps, and looks open to stacks of further improvement.

Mutual Regard has done his racing on AW surfaces to date, but that shouldn't be taken as a sign that he's a polytrack specialist. Having had a typical juvenile campaign for one from his yard (3 quick runs over inadequate trips at the back-end of 2011), he predictable improved as a 3-y-o, but was given plenty of time to come to himself, and by the time he made his handicap bow, the turf season was already drawing to a close.

In beating Miss Blakeney and Cool Sky at Kempton in November for his third win, he took a step forward against a pair who had looked fairly treated themselves. Subsequent events have shown that assessment to be accurate, with the vanquished duo going on to win 5 of their next 6 races in handicaps. Mutual Regard was turned out just 2 days later under a penalty, and won with ease from Thecornishcockney with a full 15 lengths back to the third. That form in itself makes him look one to follow again as a 4-y-o, especially as he's clearly a late-maturing type, but again the exploits of those he beat tells a story.

The gap back to the third suggested that this was either a race with no depth, or that the first 2 were both well handicapped. It hasn't taken long for the runner-up to provide the answer to that question, winning 4 of his subsequent starts last winter, and rising from a mark of 69 to a current BHA rating of 102. Having beaten Thecornishcockney in concession of weight, it's a reasonable assumption that the selection's current BHA mark of 83 underplays his ability, even accepting that the runner-up has shown marked improvement. Prescott has already pencilled in Luke Morris to ride Mutual Regard again at Newmarket on Saturday, and the hint must be taken.

Prescott saddles the odds on favourite in the opening contest, but it's unusual for him to switch one from handicaps back to maiden company and that isn't necessarily a positive sign. Khotan was a costly failure on return/handicap debut at Doncaster last month, hanging badly left under his talented young amateur rider when asked to win his race. It's quite possible that inexperience cost him there, but backing odds-on shots with an aversion to being in front is a costly business, and he may have found a tough opponent in Caledonia.

Jim Goldie has good reason to want a winner at Ayr today, and he's using this meeting as a platform for launching an expanded racing club. One of 4 horses to run in the club's colours today, it seems unlikely that Caledonia will be having a quiet spin, and this smart bumper performer looks to have bright prospects of getting his head in front at the second time of asking in this sphere.

He was a huge eyecatcher in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in March, pulling much too hard, and looking sure to be tailed off at one point, but he did remarkably well to finish in the first half of the field that day, something only a classy animal could do given such antics. A highly-creditable third in the Grade 2 event at Aintree in April underlined his potential, and he looks a decent tool for staying handicaps in time. A step up to 1m6f today will suit him much better than on his Flat debut at Thirsk, and he can upset the favourite at rewarding odds.  

Recommendations

Both at Ayr

Back Mutual Regard @ [4.0] in the 15:10 (NAP)

Back Caledonia @ [4.5] in the 14:10 (NB)

Powerful Case For The Neglected

David O'Meara has been one of the success stories of the last few years, and the Irishman has gained a legion of fans among punters who have latched on to his prowess with handicappers, particularly those who have become jaded elsewhere.

It was a cracking day for followers of the yard yesterday, with Innocently, Mont Ras and The Codger all successful at Redcar, and it seems the operation is ready to move up a gear, with a host of entries at the weekend. O'Meara has a quartet at Musselburgh today, but the best he can hope for is a treble, with the stable going head to head in the 16:00 courtesy of Powerful Presence, who won the corresponding event last year, and impressive Newcastle winner Gandalak. The prevailing opinion among the betting public seems to be that Gandalak is the one to be with, and there is no doubt that he made a striking visual impression when routing his rivals over 6f last time, but there are reasons to be a bit more circumspect.

Newcastle is one of those tracks which often produces a "golden highway", where horses able to bounce out and grab the stands rail are never headed, and that has been a pattern at the track this season. Gandalak was drawn closest to that favoured rail when making all, and while he never looked in any danger, he's not the first to have performed such a feat, and plenty of his predecessors have been shown to be flattered by such tactics. It's perfectly possible that the yard's latest recruit isn't simply a hugely progressive sort who couldn't fail to win so well there, but it's a question which isn't really being asked, and I think it should be.

Gandalak is officially well-in under a penalty, but also has to contend with a combination of different factors, such as a step up to 7f, while the threat of rain on already-watered ground is also a potential hazard. With plenty of early pace inside him today, he's not assured of the lead, and given that the likely pacesetter is his stable companion Powerful Presence, it may well be that connections decide that patient tactics are best employed. With a tight right-handed bend to negotiate soon after the start, this is a sufficiently different test to Newcastle to make Gandalak an unappealing bet at close to even money.

Powerful Presence should be much shorter than his current odds on form, especially after a most encouraging return at Thirsk when appearing just in need of the run. He's slipped back to his last winning mark, and would surely be a popular choice to repeat last year's win if he wasn't deemed to be the stable's second string. Such animals are often summarily dismissed, as if it's a given that no trainer would stoop to "trying" with more than one runner, and betting shops are full of punters bitching when such neglected horses win, as if it wasn't their own stupidity which was to blame for the inflated prices.

In the 15:00, it's more than likely that O'Meara will taste success with the progressive Frontier Fighter, but while I wouldn't want to knock the chances of the topweight in any way, there is a case to be made at much bigger prices for Reve de Nuit. The son of Giant's Causeway rather lost his way on the Flat last year for Alan McCabe, but was sparked back to life last summer by a switch to hurdling, at least initially, and that can be put down to a routine change, caused either by the switch in codes, or the move to a new yard. His revival didn't last, although whether that is due to the novelty of hurdles wearing thin or that Sarah Humphrey's yard suffered a loss of form last autumn is a moot point.

Of more relevance is that owner Zia Wentworth has once again moved Reve de Nuit on, and while it won't be an easy task for Elaine Burke to keep the gelding sweet, she has at least inherited a potentially well-handicapped horse, and if he's going to do anything for the yard, it's likely to be on this reappearance. That's something of a gamble, but it's what betting is all about, and 22/1 is a juicy price should the theory be justified.

Recommendations:

Both at Musselburgh

Back Powerful Presence @ [5.7] in the 16:00 (NAP)

Back Reve de Nuit @ [24.0] in the 15:00 (NB)

Flashman for Hexham Sextet

Mondays were never meant to be easy, particularly for the nine-to-fivers, but Flat racing has a habit of throwing up fiendishly difficult cards at the beginning of each week, as typified by the fare put on at Windsor, where the city boys guzzling champagne probably lose less money that the stay-at-home punters. For my sins, I've had the job of compiling the card at Windsor this evening, but that hasn't caused any winners to jump off the page.

It's to lowly Hexham I'll go for my best bet, where it's worth taking a chance on the well-being of Harry Flashman in the hunter chase at 17:00. The 12-y-o has an excellent record at the track, winning five times from 9 completed starts for Donald Whillans, the latest on a lively surface in May. A repeat of that handicap win will definitely be enough to dispose of the vast majority of today's rivals, although he did finish lame there on his final start for the yard.

Now in the care of Greg Aitken, the chestnut gelding made what appears an inauspicious debut in the pointing field recently, pulling up in a race won by Buckstruther at Morpeth, but there were valid excuses, given that was his comeback on unsuitable terrain, and he shaped as if retaining ability. The outing will have done him the power of good, and had this race been run a year ago, he'd not be much bigger than Evens. It seems to me that layers are taking a huge chance with him at 8/1 this morning, and while there is an element of risk in backing him, the upside of his current price is compelling.

Palos Conti is a worthy favourite, having bolted up on his return from a lengthy absence at Sedgefield last time, and I'm in no hurry to lay Alison Christmas' gelding after he landed a plunge there, but he would be receiving nearly a stone from the selection if this were a handicap, and he's as short as his form entitles him to be. The only other runner who looks worth considering to me is the ex-Chris Grant runner Ngong Hills, who has enjoyed a new lease of life in points of late. Perhaps the best way of insuring against a flop from Harry Flashman is to have that pair in a modest reverse forecast.

In the preceding contest at 16:30, it's very hard to oppose Lady of Verona in a pretty dire mares maiden hurdle. Lucinda Russell's  charge is no superstar, but the only reason she's failed to win so far is simply that she's lacked a change of gear against superior rivals. This is by far her best chance to get her head in front to date, and the opposition look very poor on the whole. The possible exceptions are Valsesia and Hidden Horizons, but the former has been off for a long time since showing her only solid piece of form (reads well now, but she may have been flattered by the run of things), while Hidden Horizons has shown nothing on her last 2 starts, albeit at the minimum trip. She'll do much better dropped to this level and up to a stiff 3m, but looks nowhere near as solid as Lady of Verona, who really shouldn't be troubled to win.  

Recommendations:

Both at Hexham

Back Harry Flashman @ [8.4] in the 17:00 (NAP)

Back Lady of Verona @ [2.50] in the 16:30 (NB)

Cannon Set To Stun

At a time when some of the most iconic jump jockeys of all time are heading into the twilight years of their professional careers (surely even Tony McCoy can't keep coming back from falls such as the one which hospitalised him at Cheltenham on Thursday, while Timmy Murphy was in the wars at Ayr yesterday), there will inevitably be a collective craning of the necks among racing congnscenti on the lookout for the next weighing-room colossus. Ask a clutch of professionals who they see as a future champion jockey, and you'll get a few different answers, but one name which will crop up frequently is that of Tom Cannon.

It's been a season to savour for Cannon despite doing most of his work on the gaff tracks like Fontwell, where he will ride a host of dubious characters for the likes of Chris Gordon and Nick Gifford, but he's shown he can do it on the bigger stage, too, his win aboard On Trend at Sandown in February a performance of real maturity, while he achieved a long-held ambition to ride a Cheltenham winner with a finely-judged effort on Starluck during the week. We'll surely be hearing much more of Mr Cannon in the years to come, and he can advertise that fact with a good day at Wincanton today.

The aforementioned Chris Gordon was keen to snap up the young jockey's services at an early stage, and he deserves great credit for his talent-spotting abilities, both with riders and horses. Many of Gordon's jumpers have come to him with a reputation of being moderate and/or ungenuine, and it's to the trainer's credit that he's achieved the results that he has with few marquee performers. The latest success story has been the Dansili gelding Superciliary, who was unable to get his head in front on the Flat for Ralph Beckett, but belatedly shed his maiden status when winning a handicap hurdle for his new yard at Plumpton last time. He should follow up in the 14:10 at Wincanton.

Superciliary's story is a simple enough one; he's found it hard to handle testing ground over hurdles, but was given a real chance by the handicapper before showing himself much better suited by good-to-soft ground at Plumpton, and that form looks solid. The runner-up may have disappointed on Friday, but third-placed Goochypoochyprader arrived there after a series of good runs, and has since gone on to regain the winning thread at Fontwell off the same mark. Bach on Tow was further back in sixth, but is another to have landed a handicap subsequently, giving the form a rock-solid appearance. The yard has exploded back to form in recent weeks having had a very quiet spell, with 4 of the handler's last 11 runners in handicap hurdles winning, and with the ground drying out all the time at Wincanton, everything looks in place for another big effort. A 7 lb rise for his win looks very lenient in retrospect, and Superciliary should be much shorter than his current odds of 3/1.

Gordon's standard bearer in recent seasons has been King Edmund (15:10 Wincanton), owned by long-time patron and some-time corinthian amateur rider Anthony Ward-Thomas, about whom his trainer replied when asked of his chances aboard Launde in the 2010 Aintree Fox Hunters': "He's an absolutely shocking rider, but a great friend....we just hope he's not in a body bag at the end of it."

Luckily, Ward-Thomas isn't on board King Edmund today, and the gelding has a cracking chance based on his latest run over C&D when splitting Rody and Jump City. The inveterate front-runner faces competition for the lead here, but that's not a scenario which fazes him, and he's got a bit more class than today's rivals. More importantly, he's a much better "lepper" than the majority of them, and can make the best of his way home as the likes of Laterly, Nobunaga and Swift Lord blunder their chances away at a track which takes few prisoners in the jumping department. Elenika is likely to throw down the sternest challenge, and appeals as the type to trade short in running, but he regularly finishes weakly after travelling well, and did so again when unplaced at Ascot recently, having hit a low of 1.61 in the run.

Handicap snip of the day is arguably Lower Hope Dandy in the following contest, but punters should be aware than Venetia Williams' unexposed son of Karinga Bay suffered from heat stroke after winning easily at Cheltenham in mid-week, needing treatment in the unsaddling enclosure before recovering. He really is a cracking prospect for the future, and his current mark underplays his ability by some way, but such a quick turnaround after an arduous experience is a definite concern, and he's not one to plunge on at skinny odds today. He's worth laying at current odds, with the option of trading back should concerns about his well-being cause him to drift pre-race.

Recommendations:

All at Wincanton

Back Superciliary @ [4.0] in the 14:10 (NAP)

Back King Edmund @ [4.1] in the 15:10 (NB)

Lay Lower Hope Dandy @ [2.68] in the 15:40