Can I Get A Witness?

13:55 Chepstow: With original fancy Super Villan now a non-runner with a bruised foot, the most appealing win angle is Fourovakind, who was a useful winner over hurdles at the track last year, and is capable of improving on the form he's shown to date over fences now handicapping with headgear tried for the first time. The other potential angle in the race is a back-to-lay of Victor Dartnall Tolkein's Tango on his chase debut. The son of Beneficial has the physique to better his hurdles form in this sphere, and travelled notably strongly on his penultimate hurdles outing. Like many from his yard, however, he's struggled to string solid form figures together, and has looked less than keen on occasion. Those traits will see him go off at a big price today, but his latent ability may see him trade much shorter, for all he makes limited appeal as a win-only bet. He may be worth including in forecast bets, particularly with his expected SP to boost potential returns.

15:50 Kempton: The early BetBright Chase betting was dominated by a pair of dubious stayers, with Bury Parade also having doubts about his temperament. Known as a "nappy" sort at home, he disgraced himself by refusing to race at Exeter in December. That aberration was put down to the proximity of the start to the saddling boxes, and he was on his best behaviour at Ascot, but the configuration of Kempton is a major concern, with the 3m start immediately adjacent to the racecourse stables. If that really is the trigger for Bury Parade's misbehaviour, then he simply can't be backed until jumping off. Even if he does, though, a step up to 3m in a strongly run race is not likely to bring out the best in a free going sort like him, and he's hardly thrown in off top weight. 

Tour des Champs is one I wanted to be with at the opening odds, and will surely win a decent race off his current mark, but his price has tumbled after getting the Pricewise treatment. With testing ground remaining a worry for him, he's probably too short at around 13/2, and of more appeal is Ardkilly Witness, who is just about the least exposed in the field, and took a big step in the right direction when second to Relax at Sandown recently. His jumping has been an issue, but was an asset on the whole there (only notable blip at the last), and as a dual heavy-ground point winner, he will handle the conditions better than most. With questions over his main rivals, and with improvement still to come after just five chase starts, he really should be favourite, and merits a bet at 7/1 or bigger.

Recommendations:

Lays:

Bury Parade for a place at 3.0 or shorter in the BetBright Chase (15:50 Kempton)
Bets:

Back Ardkilly Witness to win at 7/1 (general) in the BetBright Chase (15:50 Kempton)

In running:

Back Tolkeins Tango to lay back in the 13:55 Chepstow 

Exotics:

Combine Fourovakind/Tolkeins Tango in exotics 13:55 Chepstow

BetBright Chase Preview

I'm delighted to have been given the opportunity of writing a semi-regular blog for new Kempton Park sponsors BetBright, for whom Saturday's feature chase is their jumps season highlight. Here's a preview of what I've written for them:

"Since betting opened on this weekend's BetBright Chase, Paul Nicholls’ Bury Parade has been all the rage, and that’s understandable after his facile win at Ascot (21f) last time. A word of warning must be issued, however, as the gelding planted himself at the start at Exeter on his previous outing. The excuse proffered then was that the proximity of the saddling boxes, and while there was no hint of such recalcitrance at Ascot (when wearing a hood), he has reportedly shown similar reluctance at home. The start at Ascot was a long way from where the horses are saddled, but that’s not the case at Kempton, where the 3m start is in very close proximity to the racecourse stables. It’s possible that his earlier antics won’t be repeated, but if there is to be another display of reluctance, all the elements are in place......."

Read the full preview by clicking on the link below

BetBright Chase Preview

BetBright may not be a familiar name, and if you don't have an account, it may be worth signing up, particularly as new customers are being offered a "double-odds" bonus on this race. To sign up, click on the following link:

BetBright Chase Double Odds Offer

Goodbye to all that...

I posted on twitter this morning that my association with Timeform Radio was coming to an end, and I thought I should expand on that here rather than pollute timelines which are already confused by Willie Mullins' plans for his 372 Cheltenham Festival entries...

I had my first run-out on Timeform Radio back in December 2008 (Ludlow and Exeter if I recall correctly), and have thoroughly enjoyed my time working on the channel since then. A move within the wider organisation to reduce the reliance on freelance contractors is the reason for my departure, and while that's a great disappointment for me, it's wholly understandable that the content of Timeform Radio should be seen to mesh with Timeform's editorial team in Halifax, which is now stronger than ever. I'm very grateful to have had the privilege of inflicting myself on the wider public, and would like to thank Head of Timeform Kieran Packman for giving me that opportunity. Thanks should also go to Simon Rowlands and Tony Calvin, for helping to engineer that first meeting. 

I've gained plenty of friends among those I've worked with (you know who you are), and am undoubtedly a better man for the experience, with particular mention going to Simon Foat for frequently going beyond the call of duty, particularly given the need to deal with my frustration when things didn't work as planned. Cheers Foaty!  In similar vein, I've enjoyed the interaction with regular listeners, and hope that some of those regular discussions will continue in other media.

I'm hoping, as I said earlier, that this will lead to a new chapter for me, and I'm certainly open to offers for either written or broadcast work, particularly with the Festival in mind. 

All the best,

Rory

Bumper Payout?

It's a bumper card in more ways than one at Kempton today, as the hurdle-less fixture is big on numbers, and also has the draw of Champion Hurdle fancy My Tent Or Yours. It would be a major shock if Nicky Henderson was to go home empty handed, and his record in bumpers both on turf and polytrack at the Sunbury venue is second to none. That said, the odds on offer about several of his runners already appear on the skinny side, and the likelihood is that punters thin on form clues will continue to steam into the yard's runners.

On that point, it's perhaps not a huge surprise that Grey Blue is favourite for the 15:35, but this former Mark Johnston inmate makes precious little appeal given his record. His sole win on the Flat came in a muddling maiden as a two-year-old, and he failed to progress when sent handicapping, for all he was runner-up on his final Flat outing. He ran just respectably switched to hurdles for his new yard at Kempton last month, and looks one of his stable's lesser lights. His stamina for today's extended trip is far from guaranteed, either, and there are several with better claims on paper. One of those is Koolala, who has much the best bumper form on offer, and remains unexposed, having scored impressively over hurdles at Uttoxeter in November. She has the assistance of Tony McCoy, and hails from a yard with a very good record on polytrack. She looks a solid selection with the favourite making the market, and probably has most to fear from Silsol, who ran well in a Flat handicap at the track last month, and ran a cracker in a handicap hurdle at Wincanton recently. I'd recommend pairing those in a reverse forecast/exacta.

In the opener, the big yards again dominate the betting, but the value lies in sticking with the criminally underrated Martin Hill yard, for whom Flamenco Lad looks a sporting bet. Again, he appears to have the best form on offer, albeit in a race with more unknowns, and had Sea Tiger more than eleven lengths behind when second to the ill-fated Adeupas D'Ycy at Exeter in December. Quite how Alan King's runner is shorter in the betting now is a puzzle, and while there may be something lurking among the newcomers, it would be a surprise if Flamenco Lad didn't trade significantly shorter in running. He travelled very sweetly in front at Exeter, and a repeat of those tactics will surely see him go well for a long way. Hopefully he can hang on this time, but a back-to-lay strategy looks the wisest option.

Another who can pay dividends for in-running players is Domtaline, who goes in the last at 17:10. He had only a length to spare over Daymar Bay over course and distance last time, and the latter will be fancied by many to turn the tables, but there are two factors which sway the verdict towards the Paul Nicholls-trained grey once more. Firstly, he is a very straightforward conveyance, and as such, the claim of jockey Alex Chadwick compensates to some degree for the penalty he must carry, and secondly, he is a much sweeter traveller than Emma Lavelle's runner, and that should be reflected in the in-play odds. Again, he looks a very viable win bet, but the probability of his trading odds on at some point means that it's prudent to play him as such.


Recommendations:

All at Kempton

Back Flamenco Lad @ [11.5] in the 13:30 (BTL)

Back Koolala @ [5.9] in the 15:35 (NAP)

Back Domtaline @ [4.0] in the 17:10 (BTL)

Murphy Mare A Diamond

It seems prudent to give Fakenham's treacherous circuit a miss on Friday (the track must be barely raceable, and already gets the highest percentage of non-completions per runner of any course in the country), and easier pickings will be found at Lingfield, where the runners only have gale-force winds to contend with.

Best bet on the card is Pat Murphy's Catalinas Diamond who finds herself on a career-low mark in a race which will be run to suit, and with the services of the mercurial Jamie Spencer to boot. This contest has several free-going sorts in opposition, which may be a stumbling block to form horse Bertie Blu Boy, who could do without being pestered on the lead. He coped with One Last Dream when scoring last time, but the presence of Idle Curiosity in particular means that the pace will surely be contested, and that is likely to play into the hands of one of the hold-up runners.

Catalinas Diamond has run respectably over six furlongs on both starts, and the way she's kept on late suggests that she's ready for a return to this longer trip, particularly given a race which suits her style of running. Not only will she have that, but Jamie Spencer is much more capable of delivering a last-gasp challenge than Fergus Sweeney, who did the steering last time. It's almost a year since her last win, which came off an official BHA mark of 65, and she's generously handicapped off just 56 today.  

Another who looks fairly handicapped at the Surrey venue is Clive Drew's Maison Brillet in the thirteen furlong handicap at 16:15. Successful from the reliable El Libertador at the track a year ago, he's now slipped below that winning mark, and clearly needed the run on his reappearance. With that outing to help put an edge on him, he's more than capable of a bold show, and while Waving won't be an easy nut to crack, Maison Brillet makes plenty of each-way appeal at inflated morning odds. With 3 places available despite the small field, he's also an attractive place only option, and I will stick to that market for the bet.

Recommendations:

Both at Lingfield

Back Catalinas Diamond @ [7.8] in the 14:30 (NAP)

Back Maison Brillet @ [4.3] to place in the 16:15 (NB)

Letters To The BHA: Catterick Bumper 10/02/14

Hi Robin,

There is no report on the BHA site of any stewards enquiry into the failure of James Reveley to ride out for a place on favourite Star Lily in the bumper at Catterick. It's clear to the naked eye that Reveley's lack of effort/easing up cost Star Lily second place, and will have had a material effect not only on forecast bets, but for the thousands of punters investing in the placepot. Can I ask whether there was an enquiry, and if so what the result was?

Rory

Hi Rory,

Apologies for slow reply, was at Grand National weights lunch yesterday.

The stipes have got back to me with their explanation regarding the bumper, below.

Thanks,

Robin

I can confirm that, having watched the race live and replays on the day, we were happy that James Reveley riding STAR LILY would not have finished second because;

Reveley has been close to the pace throughout and challenges for the lead after a mile, he leads the field from 3 furlongs out after quickening away from BUCKBORU(who was caught flat-footed) he then has a battle with PREACHER'S BELLE for some way only to be swooped on from his left by the eventual winner GEORGIAN FIREBIRD who stayed on well. Reveley's mount is decelerating at the same time GEORGIAN FIREBIRD goes to win its race and Reveley is losing further ground as he's tackled for 2nd place by the one-paced BUCKBORU who is staying on. As the Racing Post quite rightly points out BUCKBORU "took keen hold,held up in touch,headway and close up over 3f out,ridden and slightly outpaced 2f out,rallied to chase(clear) winner inside final furlong,no impression", STAR LILY"close up, challenged halfway, led 3f out to over 1f out, no extra and lost second inside final furlong". The Racing Post Analysis also stated that "Star Lily was penalised for her debut win at Wetherby back in November. She is not the biggest and the extra burden on this terrain found her out"

I'm not denying Reveley's body language changes (well)inside the final furlong, it changes as he is being passed by BUCKBORU who stays on(having been outpaced) this is exacerbated by the filly coming back(decelerating) underneath him, this coupled with STAR LILY being beaten a length, I've no doubt Reveley and STAR LILY would not have finshed 2nd.

Hi Robin,

thanks very much for the reply. I can't say the stipe's verdict is one I agree with, but it's certainly strongly worded. From a personal view, I'd rather the stewards on duty were led by the Rules themselves, rather than a potentially prejudiced view of the race. I raised the issue simply because James Reveley (contrary to Rule D45) made no effort to ride his mount out throughout the final furlong of the contest, not because I thought she should have won. His only excuse for not doing so would have been as set out below, and yet no explanation was sought from the stewards as to why he had essentially eased off. 

I said the stewards should be led by the Rules, and not a "potentially prejudiced view of the race". That sounds a bit inflammatory, so I'll explain if it's not clear. By citing the Racing Post report, information is being brought into the equation which is not only badly skewed by confirmation bias, but also cites issues such as the ground and the fact that the mare was carrying a penalty. In deciding whether she has been given every chance by the jockey of obtaining second place, surely such factors are of no relevance whatsoever?

I'm sure that an explanation of "no more to give" would have been forthcoming, and would doubtless have been accepted, but at least that would have been on record. I believe that the stewards have not stepped up to the mark in terms of their duty to racegoers and punters in simply deciding that the jockey's actions were acceptable. It's certainly not a decision which chimes with the rules as they stand.  

45.3.3 the Rider considers that it would be contrary to the horse's welfare to continue riding out because the horse

45.3.3.1 has no more to give or is 'tailed off' through fatigue, or
45.3.3.2 has a problem which is materially affecting its performance.

It's my opinion, and that of many in the media that many more questions need to be asked, even if just to ensure that acceptable explanations are given, so that those who contribute to the sport through the levy are seen to have their concerns dealt with. That's very much how the rules are written, but not how they are applied. This also applies to the "why they ran badly" section of the BHA site. It's not offensive to ask why a horse should have underperformed, and in many cases the explanations are extremely useful for the public, but a huge swathe of unaccountably bad runs from fancied horses seem to be met with indifference. 

There's too much innuendo around within betting circles, but in the absence of factual information, people have always had a need to fill that void with rumour and supposition. The way to deal with this is to fill the void yourself with corroborative fact, which will counteract such cynicism, at least in part.

Thanks again for your time - I know this is vexing, but I also know it to be hugely important for the benefit of horseracing as a modern sport.

Rory 

 

I Am Legend

I can now say that I'm heartily sick of the 2013/14 winter, particularly as far as predicting the outcome of national hunt races in Britain is concerned. Backing horses unproven on bad ground is inadvisable, but sticking with proven heavy-ground form is also risky, with plenty of winners failing to run to form in the same conditions next time, due either to the fact that they are flattered by wide-margin successes, or that they are bottomed by hard races. A fine example of this was the heavy defeat of the gambled-on Mendip Express at Newbury yesterday. He was closely matched with his main rivals, but was all the rage having won at Cheltenham on New Year's Day in seemingly identical conditions (standing water on already heavy ground, with fences bypassed). The result was that he ran well below form with the trainer proffering the excuse that he didn't handle the conditions! This sounds nonsense, but is almost certainly true, as the going at Cheltenham was fresh, if very wet, but thoroughly churned up at Newbury. As an aside, Will Biddick spared the gelding a hard race, and the decision of one particular firm to knock him out to 16/1 for the 4-miler next month was bonkers. Back him while the madness lasts.

I fancy a couple of the Exeter card, of whom Dungeness looks the standout, but he's a short price, and such an approach has proved disastrous in recent times, so I'll head to the top-notch card at Leopardstown, where the turf is marginally less soggy, and the prices more attractive.

All the major races merit a mention, starting with the Spring Juvenile, in which Ivan Grozny looks a poor favourite on the evidence of the formbook, for all he's the pick of a trio for Willie Mullins, with the other pair both having higher Timeform ratings. He is closely matched with Plinth on debut running, and while the pair are sure to improve, there is better form available, notably from Guitar Pete. Dessie Hughes' gelding has improved for a visor, and was runner-up in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in November. That second was sandwiched by wins at Down Royal and Leopardstown, and while the form marks him out as a solid, rather than spectacular performer, it certainly entitles him to be much shorter in the betting than his current odds. If Ivan Grozny is Mullins' best juvenile, then he is rightly feared, but hard form beats gallops reports more often than not.

I expect the under-appreciated The Tullow Tank to prove himself much the best of the Irish novice hurdlers by winning the Deloitte at 14:15, but he's well found in the market at current odds, and would only appeal if the Mullins factor saw sustained support for Vautour. Make no mistake that while Philip Fenton's charge has taken time to catch the nations' consciousness in Ireland, he's fast making up for that, and has all the hallmarkes of a massive patriotic gamble in the Supreme Novices' should he pass this final test.

Carlingford Lough would have preferred a bigger field in the P J Moriarty, but he's another who hasn't had all the credit he deserves having landed the Galway Plate as a raw novice. He improved again by winning the Grade 1 Topaz over three miles last time, and is a more reliable medium that either Don Cossack or Ballycasey. The latter hasn't had a smooth preparation for this, and can be expected to improve for the run, while Don Cossack is sure to be heavily supported having beaten Carlingford Lough at Fairyhouse last time. He looked beaten before a late rally there, though, and it's possible that the second just needed the run after a break, so there ought to be nothing between them in the market. The selection is another to appeal for Cheltenham even if beaten here, as he's one of the very few novices around who has the experience of competitive big-field races, and he's shown that he's more versatile than most in terms of tactics.

In the Irish Hennessy, there is no doubt that First Lieutenant is the one to beat on form, but his strike-rate really isn't what it might be for a potential Gold Cup winner, and he's now lost thirteen of his last fourteen over fences. That, and the fact that he seems to need faster ground, is enough to make him a lay. Tidal Bay would have the statisticians spinning if he scored in a Grade 1 at the age of thirteen, but if he gets beaten today, it certainly won't be because he's suddenly remembered he should be collecting his pension instead. Last Instalment is respected despite being deserted by Bryan Cooper, but I only have eyes for one horse here.

I've long been a big fan, and fully expect Lyreen Legend to post the top-class effort I've always believed him to be capable of in big race. A gallant fourth behind a pair of today's rivals in last year's P J Moriarty, he impressed me with how he rallied over that shorter trip, and he ran a cracker under an unusually tentative Bryan Cooper in last year's RSA, when only finding Lord Windermere too strong. Given he's twice lost out to that rival, some may be surprised that he's shorter in the betting here, but the form of Jim Culloty's yard is nothing short of shocking, and militates against the chances of Dr Ronan Lambe's runner here. Lyreen Legend hasn't seen his early season go as planned, having missed an engagement in the John Durkan due to a training setback. He was seemingly well short of peak condition when behind Bobs Worth in the Lexus, and can be expected to take a big leap forward with that run behind him. He may improve again for today's run, and a tickle in the Gold Cup market is not a crazy idea, by any means.

Recommendations:

All at Leopardstown

Back Guitar Pete @ [8.0] in the 13:15

Back Carlingford Lough @ [3.85] in the 14:45

Back Lyreen Legend @ [7.6] in the 15:50 (NAP)