Veterans Can Teach Youngsters A Lesson At Lingfield

Possibly the most interesting race on Lingfield’s AW card today is the 14:10, a 0-95 handicap over 1m in which all of the 6 runners can be given a chance on form, and of that sextet, only Embankment didn’t run close to his best last time. A tricky puzzle, for sure, but one in which topweight Webbow makes much more appeal than his odds suggest. Julie Camacho’s gelding will turn 11 in 2 days, but has never been better in his life, finding only the mercurial Chapter And Verse too strong at Kempton last time, but running on stoutly over that 7f. That piece of form is arguably the best that any of today’s runners can boast, and he ought to be shorter in the betting as a result. He’s better known for his turf exploits, and many will be put off by the fact that he’s yet to race at Lingfield, but he has an excellent record on polytrack, and has yet to finish worse than second on this surface, where the likes of Kempton, Wolverhampton and Dundalk have come alike to him. This strong traveller is sure to go well again, and couldn’t have a better jockey on board than George Baker. The race should be run at a decent pace despite the small field, with both Grey Mirage and recent C&D winner Hometown Glory likely to force things, and Webbow himself tending to race handily. I’d expect Baker to sit in third place before pouncing early in the straight, and he will probably have to withstand later charges from either George Guru or Lockantanks, and that pair are both reliable and genuine types who are feared accordingly. All in all, though, Webbow looks a decent bet at odds of 5.4.

Another old-timer who appeals on the Lingfield card is Alison Hutchinson’s Strike Force, who is aiming for career win number 11 in the following 1½m handicap at 14:45. He bounced back to form when holding off the reopposing Resplendent Alpha at the track last month, and while it appears that the latter has an excellent chance of reversing form on revised terms (now 8-lb better off for a neck), he’s not the easiest to win with, and needed a drop to selling company to get the better of Bert The Alert last time. In the meantime, Strike Force hasn’t stood still, and in-frame efforts on his last 3 starts have represented better form that his win here, the latest a particularly solid second to course specialist Knowe Head at Wolverhampton. A repeat of that will see him go very well, and the late jockey change (Robert Tart takes over from Natasha Eaton) isn’t a great concern given that Strike Force has proven an excellent ride for an inexperienced rider before. Miss Blakeney is the only other danger, but her latest win came in one of the weakest maidens imaginable, and she needs to prove her mettle in better company. Strewth was well backed last time and has been nibbled at again, but the money for him when last to finish over C&D last time came entirely from an off-course bookmaker hedging liabilities on a multiple bet, and isn’t what it seems at first glance.   

Recommended Bets:

Back  Webbow in the 14:10 Lingfield  @ [5.4] (NAP)

Back Strike Force  in the 14:45 Lingfield  @ [5.4] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107827933&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107827935&ex=1&origin=MRL

Surf's Up For Beach Boy Backers

Day 2 of Kempton’s King George meeting may not have the drama afforded by the finish of yesterday’s big race, but it does have its share of betting opportunities. Messrs Henderson and Nicholls look set to trade blows throughout the day, but one race in which their contenders look opposable is the concluding handicap hurdle. My initial reaction to this race was that the Paul Nicholls-trained Dildar looked something of a standout, given how unexposed he is, allied to the high regard in which he was held as a juvenile. The trainer’s thoughts in his Betfair column: http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/ are much less optimistic, however, and Dildar has clearly not the solid option he seems at first glance. Similarly, Nicky Henderson’s All The Aces hasn’t lived up to early expectations, and in retrospect, and easy defeat of Destroyer Deployed at Newbury a year ago isn’t the strong form it looked to be at the time. Others with question marks are Scorched Son, who won a much weaker race at Ffos Las recently, and looks to face a tough task under a penalty, and topweight Bourne, who has apparently gone the wrong way temperamentally since an impressive win at Ascot in February, and now has blinkers fitted for the first time.

Headgear may do the trick for Bourne, but he was miles behind Chesil Beach Boy at that track last time in the race won by Petit Robin. With the winner and third-placed Dan Breen both running huge races in the Ladbroke there last weekend, that form looks stronger than it did at the time, and John Coombe’s lightly-raced 9-y-o shaped very well in fourth under daughter Miranda. The Coombe/Roberts axis is not a sexy one in racing, and Miranda is not the most stylish, which may explain the fact that Chesil Beach Boy is trading at double figures. While the jockey is a minor concern, it should be pointed out that the gelding’s best efforts have all come for Roberts’ steering, and several tries for other jockeys have failed to elicit a better response. I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him to win, but the more solid option with this consistent performer is to back him place only. Able Deputy looks a danger, and he was unfortunate to come down at Haydock on Saturday when baulked by a rival after jumping the first hurdle well. Of the others, Ivors King is better than he showed under an over-aggressive ride last time, and that shouldn’t be taken as a sign that his good run has come to an end. Scottish Boogie is another who’s been shaping better than results recently, and is likely to go well for a long way, for all he looks to have stamina limitations when the going is this testing. The combination exotics make some appeal.

Away from the mudbath conditions on turf, there are a couple of polytrack races which I’ve looked at. I was tempted by Dream Risk in the 19:30 at Wolverhampton, and she’s worth considering on her first AW run for Brian Elliosn, having improved over hurdles since second on turf in the summer. Fit from a run at Fakenham (poorly positioned and better than the result), she needs to prove her ability to handle conditions, but that’s rarely an issue for runners from this yard. In the end, though, I’ve plumped for Daffydowndilly in the 15:35 at Lingfield. Unexposed at 1¼m, Hughie Morrison’s filly improved to win over the trip at Kempton last time, and is taken to improve past the exposed but consistent Sakhee’s Pearl. Saoi was inches behind the latter over C&D last time and also has claims, but the others are all opposable on recent evidence, and odds of 4.5 or thereabouts are very tempting.

Recommended Bets:

Back  Chesil Beach Boy to be placed in the 15:45 Kempton  @ [3.3] (NAP)

Back Daffydowndilly  in the 15:35 Lingfield  @ [4.5] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107811314&ex=1&origin=MRL 

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107811277&ex=1&origin=MRL

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Emerging talent Edgar Can Shine At Ffos Las

The name of Kieron Edgar won’t be familiar to many Saturday punters, but that might well change soon, and today looks an excellent time for the 10-lb claimer to announce himself as a coming talent. Originally from Hawick, a town more associated with rugby, but which has thrown up its share of jockeys including Wilson Renwick, Greg Fairley and the Cheltenham Festival winner Bruce Gibson, Edgar had some pony-racing experience before taking a placement with David Pipe in 2008. He returned to Pipe’s Nicholashayne  base late in 2010 as an amateur rider, and has shown enough promise to turn conditional this season.   There haven’t been many winners so far, but young Kieron impressed with the way he handled Home Run to win at Taunton recently, and it will be a big surprise if, under proper tutelage, he doesn’t make a bigger impact.

The crowded Boxing Day programme gives young Kieron the opportunity of a good book of rides at Ffos Las, and all 4 of his mounts are likely to go off as favourite. The pick, in betting terms, is recent bumper second Top Gamble (16:00), who has found a weak-looking event in which to go one better, and the defection of Rebecca Curtis’ newcomer Bob Ford looks to have presented the race on a platter to the Dai Walters-owned gelding. Edgar has already ridden Royal Mile (13:45) to victory at Chepstow this term, and the pair are reunited in the 21f handicap chase. Royal Mile flopped under Tom Scudamore last time, but that race probably came too soon for the fragile son of Bob’s Return, and he’s capable of bouncing back after a 7-week break.  Take Over Sivola (14:55) comes here on the back of a career-best effort at Lingfield, and looks to have a favourite’s chance in his follow-up bid.  If any of the quartet is a real betting opportunity, though, it’s Kusadasi in the second race at 13:10. A root through the formbook suggests that he’d bolt up if rediscovering the form he showed when winning a 2½m handicap hurdle at Cork by 30 lengths in March 2010. He’s lost his way since that win for Dusty Sheehy, but hinted at a return to form at Uttoxeter last month, when he was notably strong in the market. That second to Bathwick Brave looks enough to make him of interest, and sixth-placed Douglas Julian went on to land a decent chase at Kelso next time, while Hurraboru, who was fifth, finished an excellent second at Wetherby. It’s the latest run of the winner which is the key, though, as Bathwick Brave pulled miles clear of the field when pushing handicap blot Master of The Sea all the way at Aintree recently. That proves the Uttoxeter form to be solid, and makes Kusadasi look on a very attractive mark having been raised just 1 lb for his runner-up effort. 

Redemption Or Judgement For Sam And Long Run?

Long Run deserves to head the betting for today’s King George on the strength of his second place in the race last year, a performance which is more meritorious than public opinion gives credit for. For a horse who has raced almost exclusively at the top level with admirable consistency, he’s not getting a lot of love from the informed racing public, for all the media still adore him, and it’s worth reiterating why that is. Part of the perceived problem is the failings of his rider, Sam Waley-Cohen. The amateur has proved himself in the past with high-profile wins at the Cheltenham Festival (Liberthine and Tricky Trickster) as well as over Aintree’s Grand National fences (Liberthine again, and twice on Katarino), and clearly doesn’t deserve some of the “posh boy” abuse which has come his way. On the other hand, the relative drought since Long Run won the Gold Cup in 2011 is a worry, and some of Sam’s dash seems to have drained away since that heady day. It may be coincidental that the amateur has ridden just 2 winners over jumps in the last 20 months, and that one of those came on an odds-on Long Run in the Denman Chase at Newbury in February, but for a part-time rider no longer in the first flush of youth, such a sequence must cause some discomfort. It bears repeating that he’s a 5-lb claimer unable to draw that allowance today, and not even his biggest fan would claim he’s the equal of Ruby Walsh or Barry Geraghty in the saddle.   

It’s not all about the dolt on top, of course, and it’s arguably a bigger concern that Long Run himself has long lost any air of invincibility, being defeated twice by a resurgent Kauto Star last season before getting outrun from the last in the Gold Cup by both Synchronised and The Giant Bolster, neither of whom were considered genuinely top-notch before the Cheltenham showpiece. He certainly wasn’t outstayed there, and the bottom line is that he’s simply lacking a genuine change of gear these days. That again looked an issue when he chased home Silviniaco Conti at Haydock last month, and his rating alone won’t give him the right to dispatch today’s rivals. If he’s ridden for a turn of foot, then he’s likely to be found out by any initial change of pace, from what I’ve seen of him in the last 13 months. The best chance which horse and rider have of redemption is to make the theoretical difference in ability tell from an early stage, either by making the running or by pushing the early pacesetter and looking to press on from some way out. In fairness, Waley-Cohen tried to keep himself as close as possible to Kauto Star a year ago only to get outpaced on the turn for home. An identical ride in a race missing the mercurial Kauto Star will make him hard to beat, but the big question is whether the rider has the confidence to ride the race purely to suit himself and not as a function of what others are doing. That is a tactic which will be hard enough to perfect given the likelihood of Junior acting as a spoiler, but big races come replete with big challenges,  and both Sam and Long Run will rightly be judged on how they respond to such a test. 

By George! Majala A Christmas Cracker.

With rain still falling at Ascot and Haydock as I write, it looks odds against that both cards will survive to a conclusion, but if Ascot can complete their card, then the best bet may come in the last race at 15:40, where Tom George’s Majala makes plenty of appeal. Favourite Ulck de Lin is respected after finally getting it together at Newbury last time, but the form of that contest has taken a couple of knocks since, and he looks skinny enough at around 6/4. On the other hand, Majala also looked a much-improved performer when winning a maiden chase at Taunton last month, when the race was over as a contest a long way home. His jumping was particularly pleasing there, and he looks well up to this rise in class. He strikes as being overpriced at current odds, and is sure to give punters a decent run for their money. Majala is also declared at Haydock, where he would also appeal, albeit at shorter odds, and it will be interesting to see if George gambles on the optimism of Kirkland Tellwright, or re-routes to Ascot where the later race at least gives him some more time to play with.

The Long Walk Hurdle (14:00) has been a Big Buck’s benefit in recent times, and this year’s renewal has an odd look to it without that stellar performer. On the other hand, it does make more appeal from a betting point of view, and several of these can be given a chance. Smad Place needs to be forgiven a poor run in the West Yorkshire Hurdle, but he looks a standout otherwise, and 2 runs at this venue last winter were particularly noteworthy, winning on his belated return to action before an excellent effort under a big weight behind Bourne in February. He was an excellent third in the World Hurdle, and clearly wasn’t himself at Wetherby. It’s hoped that a “thorough MOT” has cured whatever ailed him then, and for all Alan King is no more than cautiously optimistic,  the bottom line is that he seems likely to be better suited to this test than most of his rivals, and his form claims are outstanding.   

Recommended Bets:

Back  Majala  in the 15:40 Ascot  @ [9.0] (NAP)

Back Smad Place  in the 14:00 Ascot  @ [3.15] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107795527&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107787179&ex=1&origin=MRL

Testing Ground No Worry For Jumps Road

The going for Ascot’s 2-day meeting this weekend is going to provide a real test for the competitors, with more than half an inch of rain falling in the last couple of days. Finding horses who handle hock-deep ground is no guarantee of success, but it’s a starting point. One such horse is Jumps Road who contests the novices’ handicap chase at 13:20. Colin Tizzard’s son of Clerkenwell has a patchy overall record, but he handles heavy ground well, and has never been out of the frame in races on ground described as soft or heavy by Timeform. He shaped better than result behind Howard’s Legacy on chase debut at Ffos Las in November, travelling well and just let down by his jumping in the straight. He should have learnt plenty from that, and looks on a very fair mark now handicapping in this sphere. Tizzard has been fairly quiet of late, but most of his horses have been running well enough, and Shaking Hands was a winner at Towcester yesterday, which helps to bolster confidence in the selection.

The Ascot card should be lit up by the talents of Simonsig and Puffin Billy, but both will be odds on, and a better opportunity for betting comes in the Barclays Handicap Hurdle at 15:05. Most of the field make little appeal, with the trio at the bottom of the weights likely to dominate the betting. Of those, Duaiseoir was impressive in first-time blinkers at Taunton last time, but has a patchy overall record, and the headgear isn’t certain to have a lasting effect. The longer trip is another concern. Farmer Matt is respected having improved with each of his starts in handicaps, and still appeals as fairly treated, but slight preference is for Spanish Arch, who is also sharply on the up and won with plenty to spare on his handicap bow at Warwick (21f, soft). A penalty underplays his superiority, and he looks certain to make a bold bid if handling the ground. He was a tad disappointing on the only occasion he’s raced on heavy, but seemed to handle the ground on that occasion, and probably just needed the run after a break, and his half-sister Bryansford Belle was at her best when the mud was flying.  

Recommended Bets:

Back  Jumps Road  in the 13:20 Ascot  @ [3.6] (NAP)

Back Spanish Arch  in the 15:05 Ascot  @ [3.5] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107787081&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107787087&ex=1&origin=MRL

Chjimes Can Jingle All The Way

With Exeter off and Towcester just about raceable, it may pay to concentrate on the polytrack action today. The 5f handicap at Lingfield (15:00) sees course regular Chjimes bid to win his fourteenth race from 54 starts at the Surrey venue. There’s no doubting the quality of his back catalogue, and while he’s not quite the force of old, he’s always at his best in the winter months, and shaped much better than the bare result in a C&D apprentice contest last time. After travelling comfortably, he was caught wide at the apex of the bend and lost vital ground and momentum before running on strongly in the last hundred yards to be beaten 1¾ lengths. He’s strictly held by Imaginary Diva on that effort, and George Margarson’s mare is respected again,  but a kinder draw and change of jockey for Chjimes can see him step up on that effort. He’s the only C&D winner in the field, and that proven ability to get his head in front here will count for plenty. Molly Jones is the other to consider, with a last-time-out second to Pharaoh Jake reading well in the context of this race, but a lifetime record of 1-18 is slightly off-putting.

The last race (15:30) at Lingfield is set to be a tactical affair, with many of the contenders tending to be held up in their races. The obvious exception is proven stayer Tartan Jura, who may attempt to draw the sting out of his rivals now dropping back from 2m. He’s the likeliest leader, but the feeling is that he lacks the basic speed to be effective at today’s trip, and he’s likely to set things up for something to pounce. The pair who make most appeal in that scenario are Noble Silk and Standpoint. The latter tends to finish strongly when granted a strongly-run race, and would be interesting if Tartan Jura were to blast off, but a more nuanced pace is more likely to suit the lightly-raced Noble Silk. He didn’t have much to beat when winning a turf maiden here in September, but improved again when a good second on his handicap bow over C&D last time. On that occasion he travelled well in midfield on the inner before moving through to lead inside the final furlong. Headed close home by Focal Maith on that occasion, he kept on well enough to comfortably hold third-placed Standpoint, with another couple of these further back in what proved a messy race. Several of the vanquished can be excused the run, with Standpoint  and Beat Route meeting trouble (the latter markedly so), and Nave shaping as if the run was needed after a break. That shouldn’t detract from the performance of Noble Silk, though, and the way he rallied when collared by the winner showed that he, too, had something left. With so few miles on the clock, he almost certain to do better again, and is taken to go one better.

Recommended Bets:

Back  Chjimes in the 15:00 Lingfield  @ [5.0] (NAP)

Back Noble Silk  in the 15:30 Lingfield  @ [3.7] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107773086&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107773088&ex=1&origin=MRL

Peachum Can Teach 'em

Being by St Leger winner Shantou from the family of Denman, it was unlikely that sharp tests would suit Polly Peachum (15:15 Ludlow), but Nicky Henderson’s mare acquitted herself remarkably well when runner-up in a 1½m junior bumper at Newbury on her racecourse bow in March. She went one better at Warwick next time, and made a winning debut over hurdles at Stratford in October. That success didn’t come with alarms, as she got outpaced on that sharp circuit, but the way she rallied after hitting odds of 55 in running was most taking, and she overcame a couple of sloppy jumps to hint at much better to come. She has a penalty to carry against a couple who have achieved more on the book today in Floral Spinner and Mrs Peachey, but a step up to 21f will bring about greater than average improvement, and she can take this in her stride. Proven on heavy ground, any further rain is unlikely to affect her chances, and she deserves to be a warm favourite. Backers may also want to leave a bet up at bigger odds, as she has come off the bridle reasonably early on all 3 starts to date, and is likely to trade bigger than her pre-race price again. That said, I expect the market to reflect those expectations close to the off, and would recommend backing her at Betfair SP, rather than at her current odds. Floral Spinner looks next best, as she also handles this ground, and has shown a most likeable attitude on all starts to date. She’s much more exposed than the selection, and is vulnerable to anything with a bit of class, but still makes appeal for forecast betting purposes.

If Polly Peachum is well bred, then the same can be said for Drumshambo (13:40 Ludlow) who is a Dynaformer half-brother to Irish 2000 Guineas winner Bachelor Duke out of a mare called Gossamer, although not the same Gossamer who won the distaff version of that event in 2002. Drumshambo wasted little time on the Flat, but has very much found his niche as a jumper for Venetia Williams, winning 5 of his 18 starts, including 2 out of 4 over fences thus far. He was ultimately impressive at Hereford last time despite dropping the bridle before the home turn, and the way he pricked his ears when challenging between horses at the last showed that he had plenty to spare. A rise of 5 lb will not be enough to stop him in handicapping terms, and it merely rests with Aidan Coleman to keep this promising young chaser motivated before producing him at the right time. His jumping wasn’t without blemish when a good third at Newbury on his penultimate start, but he measured his obstacles well last time, and has already proven that Ludlow’s soft birch holds no fears. He’s open to more improvement than any of today’s rivals, and looks a rock-solid wager.

Williams and Coleman can make it a double courtesy of Howard’s Legacy in the 14:45. The Alan Parker-owned gelding found conditions putting too much emphasis on speed at Newbury (17f) last time, and he was on the back foot from flagfall in the race won by Parsnip Pete, but a return to genuinely testing ground and step up to 3m can see him put that disappointment behind him. A hurdles winner on soft at Hereford last term, the rangy son of Generous impressed when beating subsequent winner Mountainous on his chase bow at Ffos Las on going described as heavy, and that is the performance to judge him on for the time being. He will find it much easier getting into a rhythm against lesser animals today, and can prove the Newbury run to be no more than an aberration.

Recommended Bets:

Back  Polly Peachum in the 15:15 Ludlow  @ [BSP]

Back Drumshambo in the 13:40 Ludlow  @ [2.58]

Back Howard’s Legacy  in the 14:45 Ludlow  @ [5.5]

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107769156&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107769150&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107769154&ex=1&origin=MRL

Claret To Provide Christmas Cheer

When doing a shift on Timeform Radio last week, I was asked by colleague Mark Grantham if I had any fancies over the holiday period, or “Christmas presents”, to borrow his terminology. There are several races which attract a flood of money over the festive period, including the Ladbroke Hurdle, King George, and Welsh National, and I thought I’d try to pick a selection in each of the 3 big events to provide some fun, and hopefully a decent profit, to help offset the inevitable expenses.

In the Ladbroke Hurdle (Saturday, Ascot), my allegiance is squarely with Claret Cloak, a horse I’ve been very keen on since he won a bumper at Wincanton last autumn.  Emma Lavelle’s son of Vinnie Roes hasn’t disappointed, and ran a race full of promise over the Ladbroke C&D on his return. Racing closer than the pace than ideal, he jumped boldly and briefly looked the winner as he kicked on approaching the straight, but was worn down by Raya Star and It’s a Gimme. He will improve on that performance, and the recent resurgence of the Lavelle yard has come just in time. He’s trading at 17.0 on Betfair at present, and is likely to be much shorter on the day given his profile.

The King George market has been thrown into disarray by the news of a tendon injury to my original fancy Al Ferof, and with Long Run looking increasingly vulnerable, the race has a much more open look than normal. Long Run will go well if adopting forcing tactics which will nullify the effect of his sloppy jumping (he’s fundamentally safe at his fences, and will look better when allowed to do his own thing, I believe), but there has been no suggestion that connections are keen to grasp this particular nettle, and until they do, his lack of tactical speed will continue to be his downfall. Riverside Theatre has obvious claims, given his ability to go well fresh, while I believe that Cue Card is very much a 3-miler in the making, and he’s another for the definitive shortlist. Of the others, Grands Crus has had an awful preparation and is reluctantly passed over, Captain Chris is flattered by his latest Ascot win and needs to jump straighter to improve on last year’s third – he’s fast becoming the new Racing Demon. Kauto Stone is overrated, and won a pretty substandard affair at Down Royal last time. Paul Nicholls was convinced he was a 2-miler last year, and his insistence that he’s now a stayer smacks of wishful thinking. Sizing Europe is an unlikely runner, and Finians Rainbow needs to bounce back from a poor effort at Ascot. Sir Des Champs was described as 50/50 by Willie Mullins prior to Al Ferof’s injury, and this race will suit him better than facing the frightening Flemenstar again at Leopardstown, so he looks a fascinating contender. I believe Mullins would prefer to avoid hock-deep ground, and that means that the Jewson Chase hero must be considered more likely to turn up at Kempton. If he does, he will start favourite, so I’m happy to chance him at around 14/1. Cue Card is an able substitute.

In the Welsh National, there seems to be a generic lack of new blood, and it’s a race which is less competitive than the numbers suggest. Rebecca Curtis has been up front with the fact that she’s left National Hunt Chase winner Teaforthree  short of peak in his 2 starts this season, and he’s shaped very well in competitive events at Cheltenham and Newbury without being unduly knocked about. He will surely be 100% when lining up for what has been his main aim all year, and he won’t need to improve to go very close. He’s an unoriginal selection, but looks something of a standout, so can’t be ignored.

Recommended Bets:

Back  Claret Cloak  in the Ladbroke Hurdle  @ [18.0]

Back Sir des Champs in the King George  @ [15.0]

Back  Teaforthree  in the Welsh National  @ [6.0]

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107672264&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=105262004&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107531492&ex=1&origin=MRL

Can Neo Prove The One At Ffos Las?

Fans of sci-fi hokem The Matrix will recall that Keanu Reeves’ character Neo was foreseen as “The One”, and hopefully Nigel Hawke’s Master Neo can prove the one for punters in the 14:45 at Ffos Las today. Master Neo already has a verdict over 2 of today’s rivals, finishing well ahead of Volador when the pair made their respective debuts at Worcester in October. That came in a beginners chase, and Volador is forced to run off his old hurdles mark (the BHA’s new novice chase reform was introduced purely to increase field sizes in novice chases and not for the handicappers to see further evidence upon which to assess horses), which gives him little chance from a logical handicap perspective. The son of Turgeon finished well clear of Benheir at Newbury last time when neither shone in a competitive novices’ handicap, and meets that rival on the same terms today. A return to further on heavy ground will suit Master Neo, who impressed when winning in similar conditions at Uttoxeter. A change of tactics didn’t help last time, and he should be handy from the outset today. Incentivise comes here seeking a hat-trick, but has crept up in the weights, and his purple patch looks set to end, especially with the less-exposed Kaybeew reopposing on significantly better terms having finished a promising third to Richard Lee’s charge at Fontwell last time. Kaybeew faltered late on there, either as a result of his stamina ebbing away, or due to a lack of race fitness. Either way, he should do better now, and is worthy of plenty of respect.

Daryl Jacob made headlines when dropping his hands on Ulis de Vassy earlier this month, and his appeal against a 10-day ban was recently rejected. Many will view the pair as banker material when lining up in the 15:15 at Ffos Las, a race which looks weaker than the Wincanton event. He should certainly go very well, but it’s worth pointing out that he’s taken a 6-lb rise in the weights for that defeat, and isn’t the handicap blot he might appear to some, especially with a slight worry about whether the blinkers he wore last time will be as much help a second time. Few of his rivals can be fancied on recent efforts, but a couple who appeal as capable of bouncing back are Scorched Son and Captain Paulie. The former was runner-up in this last year, and probably needed the outing when well held at Sandown on his only start since; that will have put an edge on him, and he looks a player, but it’s Captain Paulie who makes more appeal.  A winner of a 2m Cork handicap hurdle in April last year for Colm Murphy, he’s failed to fully convince over fences for either Patrick Holmes, or in a couple of spins since joining Evan Williams. That said, he didn’t shape at all badly at Chepstow last month, and can bounce back now reverting to the minimum trip over timber.  

The closing bumper (15:45) is an interesting contest, and all but one of the yards represented have a record of having their debutants well forward. David Pipe won this with the promising Gevrey Chambertin last year, and his representative Vieux Lion Rouge is respected, as is Solstice Son, whose trainer Anthony Honeyball has few peers in this sphere. That pair dominate the market, but  there are others with claims on paper at much bigger odds.  Alongthewatchtower comes from the lesser-known yard of Barry Brennan, but one which sent out a newcomer to finish second in a competitive event at Wetherby recently, and which had a debutant winner in the shape of Theatrelands earlier in the year. Dave Evans, who has Neverminpete, is better known for his lat/AW exploits, but 3 newcomers in bumpers this season have all run with credit, with 2 winning and the other making the frame at big odds. Don’t ignore this pair, especially if late money arrives.

Recommended Bets:

Back  Master Neo  in the 14:45 Ffos Las @ [7.0] (NAP)

Back  Captain Paulie in the 15:15 Ffos Las @ [6.2] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107760235&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107760237&ex=1&origin=MRL

D-Day for “The Big Zed”

My Cheltenham Radio colleague Dave Farrar has confused more than one listener with his admiration for a horse he refers to as “Big Zed”. Given the exploits of Colm Murphy’s ex-champion chaser Big Zeb,  it’s natural for many to think Dave is a little confused, but the horse Mr Farrar holds in such esteem is, in fact, the 2011 Triumph Hurdle hero Zarkandar, and while the nickname may not have caught on yet, a victory in the International Hurdle today (Cheltenham 15:05) coupled with Fazza’s infectious enthusiasm may yet see that scenario change.  Zarkandar’s claims are crystal clear after an impressive defeat of Prospect Wells in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton, and the fitness edge he holds over Grandouet and Rock On Ruby may prove crucial. So, too, may the weight he receives from that pair, and he must win today to prolong his claims as a genuine Champion Hurdle candidate. Some will point to his eclipse in the Champion itself as proof that he doesn’t have what it takes to beat the best over 2m, but my view of that contest is very different. Zarkandar usually impresses in appearance, but was decidedly lacklustre in the paddock last March, and I believe that his inability to go with the leaders before plugging on was not the running of a nascent stayer, but that of a horse who was well below his best, but willing to dig deep. It’s been established that he was sick after his Betfair Hurdle win, and judging him on his Festival performance is dangerous. He didn’t look short of speed around Wincanton’s sharp turns, and I believe he will be a major force in the 2013 Champion Hurdle. If that view is correct, then he is an outstanding bet at odds against today.

In the Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Gold Cup (or Massey Ferguson for those with very long memories), I believe that Walkon will go well again, despite a reputation of being best fresh. It would certainly pay a compliment to Al Ferof if he, or Nadiya de La Vega, could frank the Paddy Power form, but there is one in the field at a much bigger price who also interests me. Golden Chieftain hasn’t always convinced as a performer, for all he’s shown himself to have the kind of engine needed to compete at a high level. He’s tended to finish weakly at times, and his jumping over fences has not been the most polished, to say the least, but a change of tactics of late has helped him, and he was undeniably impressive when winning a competitive handicap at Worcester in October. That came under front-running tactics and with cheekpieces on for the first time, and good as it looked at the time, it’s the subsequent exploits of the beaten horses which makes it most noteworthy. Simply Wings, George Nympton, Current Event and Tatispout all won next time (as did early faller Double Ross), and it’s form which stands up to the closest scrutiny. The son of Tikkanen was ostensibly disappointing in the Badger Ales at Wincanton next time, but still shaped very well for a long way before patently failing to get home, and his trademark sloppy jumping was again notably absent. A drop back to 21f will help enormously now, and he will cope with the testing ground better than most (has won his only start when racing on heavy). The fitting of a tongue tie is a slight worry (has had a breathing operation), but he will hopefully see things out better as a result, and while he clearly comes with risks, that is compensated by a current price of 23.0 on Betfair.

Recommended Bets:

Back  Zarkandar  in the 15:05 Cheltenham  @ [2.32] (NAP)

Back  Golden Chieftain in the 14:30 Taunton @ [23.0] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107751447&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107735123&ex=1&origin=MRL

Keevil At The Double?

Dorset trainer Caroline Keevil enjoyed a red-letter day when Sound Stage gave her a first Cheltenham winner in this week 3 years ago, and hers is an outfit I’ve followed fairly closely ever since. Last season was something of a write off, as she struggled to keep her horses healthy, although she had initially made a bright start at her new base at Motcombe, having leapfrogged Paul Nicholls geographically from her old yard at Blagdon, to the south of Bristol Airport. A break has allowed her to sort things out, and her runners have been performing better on the whole this autumn. Among those to benefit from her patient approach is Marshal Zhukov (15:00 Taunton), who built on the promise he showed on chase debut when scoring in some style at Chepstow in October. He was a creditable third to Ackertack at Ascot last time, but the result tells only half the story, as he positively tanked through the race before being prematurely kicked for home by James Best with 5 fences left to jump. That move was arguably justified given the horse’s tendency to race with zest, and he certainly benefited from being allowed to attack his fences, but the effort told on the long run from Swinley Bottom, and he was patently outstayed on the testing ground. Despite a background in points, the son of Morozov looks the type to benefit from a drop to 2m, and his sound jumping as much as his free-going nature will help in that regard. Joe Tizzard takes the reins today, and the pair should go very close despite top weight.

Earlier in the card, Keevil can strike with the Brian Derrick-owned Bally Legend in the limited handicap for novices at 13:50. This is a horse I’ve always had an eye on, as his dam, Bally Lira, was an old favourite when trained by Pat Rodford. She stayed extremely well, and did most of her winning in the colours of Victor Thorne. It’s no coincidence that owner and trainer have targeted this contest, which is named in honour of the late Thorne, and Bally Legend has what it takes to carry on the family tradition. He was a hurdles winner over 17f at Cheltenham in this week last year, and has caught the eye on both starts over fences this term. On his debut at this track, he was unable to go with Molotof and Changing Times, but wasn’t at all knocked about in finishing third. He built on that when second to the talented Current Event over 21f at Kempton last time despite not being seen to advantage given how that race was run (Harry Derham dictated on the bold-jumping winner which proved crucial). That looked a strong race of its type, and there is little doubt that Bally Legend is potentially ahead of his mark. His jumping suffered late on at Kempton, but I don’t see him as one with a problem in that department, and he can only improve with experience.

Recommended Bets:

Back  Marshall Zhukov  in the 15:20 Taunton  @ [4.0] (NAP)

Back  Bally Legend in the 13:50 Taunton @ [6.6] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107727606&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107727601&ex=1&origin=MRL

Drop in Trip Can Produce Magic Result

A tendency to pull hard has stopped Clive Cox’s talented sprinter Seeking Magic (15:00 Lingfield) from achieving all that he might, despite the help of a hood, but there is no denying that he’s potentially well handicapped off a BHA mark of 85, and he’s caught the eye on several occasions this year since a most unfortunate loser on his return at Folkestone in April. Given a break since his final turf run of the campaign, Seeking Magic typically failed to settle in a steadily-run 6f event at Kempton last time, giving Adam Kirby little choice but to press on, and the pair looked to have the race won when briefly kicking clear in the straight, only to be mowed down late. That third to Noverre To Go and O’Gorman looks the most solid piece of form on offer, and a strongly run race back at 5f looks sure to suit the keen-going son of Haafhd. Few ride better than Kirby on the artificial surfaces, but in Graham Lee, the selection has a most able substitute, and one with marvellous hands at that. If Seeking Magic won’t settle for Lee, then he won’t settle, full stop. With Scott Dixon’s pair Even Stevens and Six Wives being proven pacesetters, this should be run at a strong pace which will help the selection, and he should have no excuses. Topweight Swiss Cross has never been better, but this will be tougher than the 6f event he won here last time, and the combination of a drop to the minimum and a 6 lb penalty look enough to prevent him following up. He’s now 10 lb worse off for a 2-length beating of Ajjaadd at Kempton 13 days ago, and I fancy that Ted Powell’s gelding will turn the tables with this trip more in his favour.  Those looking to play the forecast market could do worse than combining the pair, or including the consistent Last Sovereign in combination exotics.

Graham Lee has double claims with Loyal Royal likely to start no bigger than 5/1 for the “Breathe Spa At Lingfield Park Handicap” at 14:00, but Milton Bradley’s wily performer knows several ways to lose, and it will be a feather in the jockey’s cap if he can force the 9-y-o to end a frustrating sequence of defeats. As always, The best way of playing this enigmatic character is with a short-odds lay in the run. A likelier winner is Mey Blossom, who got back to winning ways at Wolverhampton last month, and fared best of those on an overly-strong pace when second to Dickie le Davoir there last time. Another good run looks on the cards, especially with Robert Winston back on board.

Recommended Bets:

Back  Seeking Magic  in the 15:00 Lingfield  @ [3.75] (NAP)

Back  Mey Blossom in the 14:00 Lingfield @ [8.0] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107713832&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=107713828&ex=1&origin=MRL

Bumper Musings #1

Here's my analysis of tomorrow's Sedgefield bumper which I've done for the racecard, and for the timeform/free site. I'm not sure whether there's much call for this sort of thing, but it keeps me off the streets, so what the heck....

* edit - my thanks to Will Bowler for pointing out that Tiny Dancer is a grandson of my namesake Helynsar, a useful hurdler back in the mid/late 80's for the late Billy Rock. That brings back plenty of happy memories for me, as Mr Rock's Cullybackey yard was fairly local to me growing up. It's also where a young Tony McCoy chose to play truant, incidentally.  Her extended pedigree can be found in this sales excerpt: http://www.dbsauctions.com/pdf/dbs/206/54_406.pdf

15:20 Sedgefield Going: Soft  |  Distance: 2m1f  |  Prize money: £2100  |   Race Type: National Hunt Flat

Timeform view

Lord of Tara would be interesting if taking up his entry, but the vote is given to Enchanted Garden, who was an unlucky second at Newcastle last time. Sealous Scout is a clear pick among the debutants, and merits close attention.

Timeform 1-2-3
1		Enchanted Garden
2		Sealous Scout (IRE)
3		Lord Of Tara

1		Alfapoint	4	11-2	G M Moore	Barry Keniry
2	56	Blakemans Law	4	11-2	S Corbett	Stephen Mulqueen (7)
3	22	Enchanted Garden	4	11-2	J M Jefferson	Brian Hughes
4		Lord Brendy	4	11-2	R Johnson	Kenny Johnson
5	22-42	Lord Of Tara	6	11-2 t	A J Martin	Paddy Brennan
6		Picks Milan (IRE)	6	11-2	Mrs K Walton	Richie McGrath
7		Sealous Scout (IRE)	4	11-2	D McCain Jnr	Jason Maguire
8	7	The Bold Lord (IRE)	4	11-2	G A Swinbank	Fearghal Davis
9		Tiny Dancer (IRE)	4	11-2	Micky Hammond	Joe Colliver (7)
10		Lets Be On	5	10-9	T D Walford	Brian Toomey (3)
11	59	Silver Speech	4	10-9	D Thompson	Tony Kelly (5)
12	UPPP-P	Welsh Conflict (IRE)	5	10-9	R Johnson	Mr Colm McCormack (7)

Betting forecast (102.5%)

Lord Of Tara (9/4), Enchanted Garden (5/2), Sealous Scout (4/1), The Bold Lord (16/1), Lets Be On (18/1), Tiny Dancer (22/1), Picks Milan (28/1), Alfapoint (50/1) Lord Brendy (80/1), Blakemans Law (250/1), Silver Speech (250/1), Welsh Conflict (500/1).

1 - Alfapoint  - Fourth foal of a modest maiden hurdler from family of prolific hunter chaser Mr Mellors. Looks a long-term prospect on paper.

2 - Blakemans Law - Soundly beaten in bumpers at Hexham and Market Rasen in the summer, and looks of little account.

3 - Enchanted Garden - Better effort to date when 1¼ lengths second of 15 to Just Cameron at Newcastle last time, finishing well after losing momentum when denied a clear run. Sure to go well in bid to make amends.

4 - Lord Brendy - Portrait Gallery gelding out of a winning pointer from a staying family. Appeals as one for the longer term.

5 - Lord Of Tara - Second on both runs in points in 2011 and has made a promising start in bumpers, fourth at Down Royal, and runner-up in messy affair at Cork (tongue tied) last time. Engaged 3.20 Musselburgh Monday.

6 - Picks Milan (IRE)  - Milan gelding out of a mare who was well held on both starts in bumpers. Yard is capable of readying a newcomer, but others make more appeal on pedigree.

7 - Sealous Scout (IRE)  - Old Vic gelding out of a bumper-winning half-sister to useful hurdler Hirapour. Cost €30,000 as a 3-y-o, and starts out in bumpers for leading yard, so merits plenty of respect.

8 - The Bold Lord (IRE) - Half-brother to 19f bumper winner/fairly useful 2m hurdler Huckle Buck Shoe. Ran below expectations when seventh of 9 in newcomers event at Ayr last month, but possible that run was needed.

9 - Tiny Dancer (IRE) - Darsi gelding out of an unraced half-sister to fairly useful staying hurdler Night Safe. Yard have tasted success in this sphere, but breeding points to him needing further.

10 - Lets Be On - Sister to staying chaser Beamazed, who was third on bumper debut for this yard, and dam also placed in this sphere, so not dismissed lightly, for all she will benefit from longer trips in time.

11 - Silver Speech - Proclamation filly out of a 6f/7f winner. No promise in bumpers at Hexham and Towcester this term.

12 - Welsh Conflict (IRE) - Close Conflict mare who has failed to complete in all 5 starts between the flags and looks a most unlikely winner on Rules bow.