Powerful Case For The Neglected

David O'Meara has been one of the success stories of the last few years, and the Irishman has gained a legion of fans among punters who have latched on to his prowess with handicappers, particularly those who have become jaded elsewhere.

It was a cracking day for followers of the yard yesterday, with Innocently, Mont Ras and The Codger all successful at Redcar, and it seems the operation is ready to move up a gear, with a host of entries at the weekend. O'Meara has a quartet at Musselburgh today, but the best he can hope for is a treble, with the stable going head to head in the 16:00 courtesy of Powerful Presence, who won the corresponding event last year, and impressive Newcastle winner Gandalak. The prevailing opinion among the betting public seems to be that Gandalak is the one to be with, and there is no doubt that he made a striking visual impression when routing his rivals over 6f last time, but there are reasons to be a bit more circumspect.

Newcastle is one of those tracks which often produces a "golden highway", where horses able to bounce out and grab the stands rail are never headed, and that has been a pattern at the track this season. Gandalak was drawn closest to that favoured rail when making all, and while he never looked in any danger, he's not the first to have performed such a feat, and plenty of his predecessors have been shown to be flattered by such tactics. It's perfectly possible that the yard's latest recruit isn't simply a hugely progressive sort who couldn't fail to win so well there, but it's a question which isn't really being asked, and I think it should be.

Gandalak is officially well-in under a penalty, but also has to contend with a combination of different factors, such as a step up to 7f, while the threat of rain on already-watered ground is also a potential hazard. With plenty of early pace inside him today, he's not assured of the lead, and given that the likely pacesetter is his stable companion Powerful Presence, it may well be that connections decide that patient tactics are best employed. With a tight right-handed bend to negotiate soon after the start, this is a sufficiently different test to Newcastle to make Gandalak an unappealing bet at close to even money.

Powerful Presence should be much shorter than his current odds on form, especially after a most encouraging return at Thirsk when appearing just in need of the run. He's slipped back to his last winning mark, and would surely be a popular choice to repeat last year's win if he wasn't deemed to be the stable's second string. Such animals are often summarily dismissed, as if it's a given that no trainer would stoop to "trying" with more than one runner, and betting shops are full of punters bitching when such neglected horses win, as if it wasn't their own stupidity which was to blame for the inflated prices.

In the 15:00, it's more than likely that O'Meara will taste success with the progressive Frontier Fighter, but while I wouldn't want to knock the chances of the topweight in any way, there is a case to be made at much bigger prices for Reve de Nuit. The son of Giant's Causeway rather lost his way on the Flat last year for Alan McCabe, but was sparked back to life last summer by a switch to hurdling, at least initially, and that can be put down to a routine change, caused either by the switch in codes, or the move to a new yard. His revival didn't last, although whether that is due to the novelty of hurdles wearing thin or that Sarah Humphrey's yard suffered a loss of form last autumn is a moot point.

Of more relevance is that owner Zia Wentworth has once again moved Reve de Nuit on, and while it won't be an easy task for Elaine Burke to keep the gelding sweet, she has at least inherited a potentially well-handicapped horse, and if he's going to do anything for the yard, it's likely to be on this reappearance. That's something of a gamble, but it's what betting is all about, and 22/1 is a juicy price should the theory be justified.

Recommendations:

Both at Musselburgh

Back Powerful Presence @ [5.7] in the 16:00 (NAP)

Back Reve de Nuit @ [24.0] in the 15:00 (NB)

Flashman for Hexham Sextet

Mondays were never meant to be easy, particularly for the nine-to-fivers, but Flat racing has a habit of throwing up fiendishly difficult cards at the beginning of each week, as typified by the fare put on at Windsor, where the city boys guzzling champagne probably lose less money that the stay-at-home punters. For my sins, I've had the job of compiling the card at Windsor this evening, but that hasn't caused any winners to jump off the page.

It's to lowly Hexham I'll go for my best bet, where it's worth taking a chance on the well-being of Harry Flashman in the hunter chase at 17:00. The 12-y-o has an excellent record at the track, winning five times from 9 completed starts for Donald Whillans, the latest on a lively surface in May. A repeat of that handicap win will definitely be enough to dispose of the vast majority of today's rivals, although he did finish lame there on his final start for the yard.

Now in the care of Greg Aitken, the chestnut gelding made what appears an inauspicious debut in the pointing field recently, pulling up in a race won by Buckstruther at Morpeth, but there were valid excuses, given that was his comeback on unsuitable terrain, and he shaped as if retaining ability. The outing will have done him the power of good, and had this race been run a year ago, he'd not be much bigger than Evens. It seems to me that layers are taking a huge chance with him at 8/1 this morning, and while there is an element of risk in backing him, the upside of his current price is compelling.

Palos Conti is a worthy favourite, having bolted up on his return from a lengthy absence at Sedgefield last time, and I'm in no hurry to lay Alison Christmas' gelding after he landed a plunge there, but he would be receiving nearly a stone from the selection if this were a handicap, and he's as short as his form entitles him to be. The only other runner who looks worth considering to me is the ex-Chris Grant runner Ngong Hills, who has enjoyed a new lease of life in points of late. Perhaps the best way of insuring against a flop from Harry Flashman is to have that pair in a modest reverse forecast.

In the preceding contest at 16:30, it's very hard to oppose Lady of Verona in a pretty dire mares maiden hurdle. Lucinda Russell's  charge is no superstar, but the only reason she's failed to win so far is simply that she's lacked a change of gear against superior rivals. This is by far her best chance to get her head in front to date, and the opposition look very poor on the whole. The possible exceptions are Valsesia and Hidden Horizons, but the former has been off for a long time since showing her only solid piece of form (reads well now, but she may have been flattered by the run of things), while Hidden Horizons has shown nothing on her last 2 starts, albeit at the minimum trip. She'll do much better dropped to this level and up to a stiff 3m, but looks nowhere near as solid as Lady of Verona, who really shouldn't be troubled to win.  

Recommendations:

Both at Hexham

Back Harry Flashman @ [8.4] in the 17:00 (NAP)

Back Lady of Verona @ [2.50] in the 16:30 (NB)

Cannon Set To Stun

At a time when some of the most iconic jump jockeys of all time are heading into the twilight years of their professional careers (surely even Tony McCoy can't keep coming back from falls such as the one which hospitalised him at Cheltenham on Thursday, while Timmy Murphy was in the wars at Ayr yesterday), there will inevitably be a collective craning of the necks among racing congnscenti on the lookout for the next weighing-room colossus. Ask a clutch of professionals who they see as a future champion jockey, and you'll get a few different answers, but one name which will crop up frequently is that of Tom Cannon.

It's been a season to savour for Cannon despite doing most of his work on the gaff tracks like Fontwell, where he will ride a host of dubious characters for the likes of Chris Gordon and Nick Gifford, but he's shown he can do it on the bigger stage, too, his win aboard On Trend at Sandown in February a performance of real maturity, while he achieved a long-held ambition to ride a Cheltenham winner with a finely-judged effort on Starluck during the week. We'll surely be hearing much more of Mr Cannon in the years to come, and he can advertise that fact with a good day at Wincanton today.

The aforementioned Chris Gordon was keen to snap up the young jockey's services at an early stage, and he deserves great credit for his talent-spotting abilities, both with riders and horses. Many of Gordon's jumpers have come to him with a reputation of being moderate and/or ungenuine, and it's to the trainer's credit that he's achieved the results that he has with few marquee performers. The latest success story has been the Dansili gelding Superciliary, who was unable to get his head in front on the Flat for Ralph Beckett, but belatedly shed his maiden status when winning a handicap hurdle for his new yard at Plumpton last time. He should follow up in the 14:10 at Wincanton.

Superciliary's story is a simple enough one; he's found it hard to handle testing ground over hurdles, but was given a real chance by the handicapper before showing himself much better suited by good-to-soft ground at Plumpton, and that form looks solid. The runner-up may have disappointed on Friday, but third-placed Goochypoochyprader arrived there after a series of good runs, and has since gone on to regain the winning thread at Fontwell off the same mark. Bach on Tow was further back in sixth, but is another to have landed a handicap subsequently, giving the form a rock-solid appearance. The yard has exploded back to form in recent weeks having had a very quiet spell, with 4 of the handler's last 11 runners in handicap hurdles winning, and with the ground drying out all the time at Wincanton, everything looks in place for another big effort. A 7 lb rise for his win looks very lenient in retrospect, and Superciliary should be much shorter than his current odds of 3/1.

Gordon's standard bearer in recent seasons has been King Edmund (15:10 Wincanton), owned by long-time patron and some-time corinthian amateur rider Anthony Ward-Thomas, about whom his trainer replied when asked of his chances aboard Launde in the 2010 Aintree Fox Hunters': "He's an absolutely shocking rider, but a great friend....we just hope he's not in a body bag at the end of it."

Luckily, Ward-Thomas isn't on board King Edmund today, and the gelding has a cracking chance based on his latest run over C&D when splitting Rody and Jump City. The inveterate front-runner faces competition for the lead here, but that's not a scenario which fazes him, and he's got a bit more class than today's rivals. More importantly, he's a much better "lepper" than the majority of them, and can make the best of his way home as the likes of Laterly, Nobunaga and Swift Lord blunder their chances away at a track which takes few prisoners in the jumping department. Elenika is likely to throw down the sternest challenge, and appeals as the type to trade short in running, but he regularly finishes weakly after travelling well, and did so again when unplaced at Ascot recently, having hit a low of 1.61 in the run.

Handicap snip of the day is arguably Lower Hope Dandy in the following contest, but punters should be aware than Venetia Williams' unexposed son of Karinga Bay suffered from heat stroke after winning easily at Cheltenham in mid-week, needing treatment in the unsaddling enclosure before recovering. He really is a cracking prospect for the future, and his current mark underplays his ability by some way, but such a quick turnaround after an arduous experience is a definite concern, and he's not one to plunge on at skinny odds today. He's worth laying at current odds, with the option of trading back should concerns about his well-being cause him to drift pre-race.

Recommendations:

All at Wincanton

Back Superciliary @ [4.0] in the 14:10 (NAP)

Back King Edmund @ [4.1] in the 15:10 (NB)

Lay Lower Hope Dandy @ [2.68] in the 15:40

Yours, Sincerely

One of the highlights of a couple of days at Cheltenham this week was the victory of Peter Bowen's Big Time Billy in the 21f mares' handicap hurdle, and her victory provides a pointer to the chances of a couple of runners at Fontwell today.

The horse Big Time Billy beat last time was Occasionally Yours, and Alan Blackmore's runner was a long way clear of the third in that 23f Fakenham handicap. He proved that form to be strong when winning over a shorter trip at Fontwell last time by no less than 20 lengths, and while he takes another drop in trip today (14:50 Fontwell), a mandatory penalty isn't enough to stop him if in the same form. He's clearly back to himself having rather lost his way last season, but is still much lower in the weights than when winning at Worcester in the summer of 2011, and his penalty sees him well-in to the tune of 7 lb, a figure which could well be higher if the assessor was to take his Fakenham conqueror's latest run into consideration. His claims are there for all to see, so it's somewhat surprising to see him trade as big as 7/2 on Betfair this morning.

Big Time Billy wasn't the only winner at Cheltenham during the week who looked well treated on bumper form, with Lower Hope Dandy belatedly backing up the impression he'd made in such races to prove his opening mark was very lenient, and the hurdles assessor's refusal to use bumper form as a benchmark for his ratings means that such scenarios crop up on a regular basis. Bright Light (16:00 Fontwell) isn't the most blinding example of this trend, but she did run well when second in a course bumper last season, and is surely better than the poor form she's shown over hurdles to date.

Richard Phillips' mare has been soundly beaten to date over timber, albeit in races she wouldn't be expected to win, and is bred to do much better somewhere down the line, with the likes of Hurricane Lamp and Martins Lamp having done well for their owner-breeder Sue Welch. Mrs Welch would presumably be delighted to utilise Bright Light as a broodmare given the family's exploits, but would prefer to get a win under her belt. If the daughter of Exit To Knowhere can't win off a mark of 69, then she'll struggle to get her head in front at all, so this looks the best opportunity she'll ever get. The yard isn't prolific these days, but a winner at the weekend is a positive sign, and Bright Light is worth an interest in a poor race.

Recommendations:

Both at Fontwell

Back Occasionally Yours @ [4.3] in the 14:50 (NAP)

Back Bright Light @ [5.6] in the 16:00 (NB)

Quipe The Faith

I had a moan about the weather the other day when unexpectedly heavy rain saw my intended nap taken out at Chepstow, causing a rethink on the card. Hopefully the work done there won't be wasted, as the horse in question, Quipe Me Posted turns out on what is described as good ground at Kempton (15:25) today.

Suzy Smith's charge has a rather chequered history, but looked a good prospect when winning on his second start for the yard at Newbury in March 2011, and found just a rampant Rileyev too strong next time. For whatever reason, he failed to fire at all last season, but the handicapper has handed him a lifeline with a hefty drop in the weights for a poor effort on his final start. That run came, somewhat ironically, in this corresponding event last spring.

An absence of a year can be viewed as a concern, but for a horse who clearly had a physical issue when last seen, it is likely to prove a blessing in disguise, and hopefully the time off has allowed his underrated handler to get him back to health. The fact he was due to race the other day, added to the retention of headgear indicate that this is no warm-up outing, and Quipe Me Posted looks primed to run for his life. He's now 9 lb below his winning mark and has shown in the past that he can go well fresh. This has the look of a do-or-die venture, but he's too well treated to ignore, and merits the nap vote at what look generous odds.

At Southwell, I've had a good look at the 16:25, which looks a really competitive race for the track. There are several with solid course form who look set to make the market, but I'll risk ridicule by putting up a pair unproven on fibresand as selections. The main hope is Al Khan, who was only seventh of 9 on his course debut last time, and on the face of it has plenty to prove.

A closer look at that effort tells a different story, however. Dropped to an inadequate 5f there, Vi Jordan's charge was slowly away, which compounded the stiffness of his task. His race was effectively over after a furlong, but he closed up markedly on the front runners in the latter stages to indicate that he handled the surface perfectly well. A return to 7f will suit him ideally, and he still looks on a workable mark. The likes of Half A Billion, Caldercruix and Hellbender are respected on course form, but none of that trio can be described as well handicapped, and the progressive Al Khan rates a value bet.

It may also pay to have a saver on Lieutenant Dan at current odds despite his lack of experience at the track. Mick Appleby's runners all seem to improve for a switch to this surface, and while the son of Danroad has a bit to find on form, there must be the possibility that he can do so now belatedly trying fibresand, and those laying him at 20.0 and above are taking a huge risk.

Recommendations:

Back Quipe Me Posted @ [8.8] in the 15:25 Kempton (NAP)

Back Al Khan & Lieutenant Dan @ [6.6] and [20.0] in the 16:25 Southwell

Reason To Back Ratty At Rasen

Dianne Sayer can be relied upon to get the most out of the horses in her care, and has a knack of keeping horses with quirky temperaments sweet, as evidenced by a couple of recent wins for the less-than-honest Endeavour, who holds outstanding claims in the opening handicap at Market Rasen today. Whether he represents value at current odds is something of a moot point, but Sayer has claims of completing a double on the card with Bunratty in the 15:35.

Bunratty recently made the move from Bob Johnson's yard, and that is intriguing, given he started his career with Sayer's mother, Evelyn Slack. Horseracing has very much been a family affair for Sayer, as she also rode the popular grey What's What to victory for her uncle Bryan Bousfield during her time as an amateur rider.

A big, strong sort, it's taken Bunratty quite a while to grow into his frame, and his modest early form is by no means the limit of his ability, especially as he's often given the impression that 2m over hurdles isn't enough of a test. That looked the case at Sedgefield last time, where he travelled well in front, but failed to match the speed shown by the aforementioned Endeavour before plugging on to finish a creditable third. Likely to be sharper for that first start for the yard, he looks certain to benefit from a step up to 21f today, and is taken to show himself ahead of his mark. Brian Harding is on board, but it's interesting that Lucy Alexander was booked for the yard's Jack Albert in the race, and it would be no great surprise to see a jockey change now that he's a non runner. The selection is tried in a hood today, and while the increasingly popular accountrement is no magic wand, it never seems to have a negative effect, unlike more severe forms of headgear.

Beckhani is an obvious danger, but it's not easy to catch Jonjo O'Neill's runners right, and those looking for a saver may do better with Phil Kirby's Fairynuff, who is better than recent efforts imply, and has fallen to a workable mark.

The 16:30 at Ffos Las has cut up, but still looks a race with a potential betting angle, with 2 horses standing out. Super Villan is the sole pace in the race, and can dictate terms under Nico de Boinville, while If In Doubt is well handicapped based on his defeat of subsequent Sandown winner Viva Steve at Towcester in January. Philip Hobbs' gelding disappointed on his handicap debut at Wincanton, but was clearly unsuited by the stop-start nature of that race over 2m, and was looked after when it was clear his chance had gone. He will be much better suited by the step up to 2¾m here, and can repay the patience of punters. He's short enough in the betting, but as well as a win bit, I'd recommend backing him to beat Super Villan in a straight forecast.

Recommendations:

Back Bunratty @ [8.4] in the 15:35 Market Rasen (NAP)

Back If In Doubt @ [2.72] in the 16:30 Ffos Las (NB)

Back 3 to beat 7 (F/C) in the 16:30 Ffos Las

Riding Into The Sunset

Once again, the rain has come to throw a spanner in the works - today's meeting at Chepstow was due to be run on a sound surface, and many of the entries were horses who have been waiting for what we can only ironically refer to as "spring ground". A pair who have already been taken out would have featured among my bets of the day, but hopefully for Quipe Me Posted and Nothingbutthetruth, there will be another sunny day on which to go to war.

As it stands, several of the races at the Monmouthshire venue are less competitive than they had first appeared, notably the concluding 3m handicap hurdle, where several of the more interesting acceptors look to need a sound surface.

The race will probably cut up further, but a pair who make plenty of appeal at current odds are The Good Guy and Barton Gift. The former is a front runner who has faced inadequate tests since a creditable third over this trip at Sandown in November, but he was noted staying on late in a handicap chase at Leicester last time, and will appreciate the return to 3m and a dozen flights of hurdles. He could face competition for the lead from Rainbow Haze, but the latter is definitely one for faster ground, and would be a welcome non-runner from my point of view.

Barton Gift's claims are more obvious, having shown improved form in the mud on his last 2 starts, winning at Ffos  Las and running well to be placed at Exeter last time. He will be better suited than any by further rainfall, and looks poised for another big run under the excellent Nico de Boinville.

Nico will hopefully be trying for a double at that stage, as he rides my main fancy in the preceding handicap chase. Massini's Sunset has rightly been called a few names in the past, and he is a moody character who gives his running sparingly. He showed that he was no back number when second to the much-improved Jupiter Rex at Plumpton before one of his off days here last time, though, and it's just over a year ago that he turned a similar C&D contest into a procession at equally unflattering odds.

The veteran's record at Chepstow reads pretty well, and while there will always be a large element of risk with him, he simply shouldn't be a 33/1 shot given his quicksilver temperament.  I'd also recommend having at least a saver on Loughalder, who is also a quirky sort, but has won both his starts over C&D, and looked set to score again at Warwick until his stamina gave out over the 29f trip last time.

Recommendations:

all at Chepstow

Back Massini Sunset & Loughalder @ [19.0] & [7.4] in the 17:30

Back Barton Gift & The Good Guy @ [5.2] & [17.5] in the 18:00